Colts Win Over/Under (plus others, and poll)

[EastStreet]

Over/Under for Wins per PointsBet

 

So Vegas has us at 9 wins, most in the AFC South.

-Based on that, and others, we'd be predicted as a 3rd or 4th seed in the AFC.

-12 opponents are predicted to have less win totals than the Colts. Two have more, two have the same.

-Of the 4 that have the same, or more predicted wins, 3 are Colts home games.

 

Predicting 11 wins, one loss, and 4 toss ups (assuming no crazy injuries).

 

 

Colts opponents bolded red

My predictions in ()

 

 

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: 9

x2Tennessee Titans: 8.5 (predicting a split)

x2Houston Texans: 8 (predicting a win, and a toss up)

x2Jacksonville Jaguars: 5 (predicting a Colts sweep)

 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: 9

New England Patriots: 9

New York Jets: 7 (Colts win)

Miami Dolphins: 6.5

 

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 (Colts win)

@Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.5 (toss up)

@Cleveland Browns: 8.5 (toss up)

Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5 (Colts win)

 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5

Los Angeles Chargers: 8

@Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 (toss up)

Denver Broncos: 7.5

 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5

Carolina Panthers: 5.5

 

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5

New York Giants: 6.5

Washington Redskins: 5.5

 

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings: 9 (Colts win)

Green Bay Packers: 9 (Colts win)

@Chicago Bears: 8 (Colts win)

@Detroit Lions: 6.5 (Colts win)

 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5

Arizona Cardinals: 7

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

I voted 10 wins, win AFC South, lose in AFC Title Game. I have a feeling in the playoffs we will upset either the Chiefs or Ravens to reach the AFC Title Game.

[EastStreet]

55 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I voted 10 wins, win AFC South, lose in AFC Title Game. I have a feeling in the playoffs we will upset either the Chiefs or Ravens to reach the AFC Title Game.

I voted 12 wins I think. I think we go in as a two seed due to beating Balt in Indy.... We only lose in the AFC title game because we have to travel to KC. If we get past them, I think we win the SB...

[coltsfan_canada]

11 wins
AFC South
Jags & Texans sweep

3rd seed
Lose in AFC Title

[NewColtsFan]

With all the chaos in the world going on...   I think all of us are guessing this year more than any other....

 

With that said...  thus feels like a 9–10 win team.   I think we make the playoffs but after that, I have no idea. 
 

Just way too many unknowns to get a good feel for the team.   

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

With all the chaos in the world going on...   I think all of us are guessing this year more than any other....

 

With that said...  thus feels like a 9–10 win team.   I think we make the playoffs but after that, I have no idea. 
 

Just way too many unknowns to get a good feel for the team.   

Yeah it all is a guess. If we had Luck I would have voted win the SB - 12 wins. Having said that I have faith in Rivers carrying us deep but that is a real early guess. The Chargers had an odd off year and injuries. Their O.line was bad too.

[NewColtsFan]

For what it’s worth....   NFL.com analytics have what they call their “Way too early wins prediction.”

 

They freely admit its way WAY too early.   And their predictions just before the season starts should be much better.

 

That said....

 

Their computers played every single game 100,000 times.   Not a typo.   The result?

 

Colts win the South with 8.8 wins.  Titans had 8.6 wins.   The two teams with the most wins were both in the AFC.   KC predicted 11.1 wins.  Baltimore with 10.9 wins.   So, we have our work cut out for us. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

10 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth....   NFL.com analytics have what they call their “Way too early wins prediction.”

 

They freely admit its way WAY too early.   And their predictions just before the season starts should be much better.

 

That said....

 

Their computers played every single game 100,000 times.   Not a typo.   The result?

 

Colts win the South with 8.8 wins.  Titans had 8.6 wins.   The two teams with the most wins were both in the AFC.   KC predicted 11.1 wins.  Baltimore with 10.9 wins.   So, we have our work cut out for us. 

Yeah I posted after the draft our over/under would probably be 9.5. I was close. 9 or 10 wins, pick your poison  . I will roll with 10 just because I am very optimistic. If we win 11 that will be overachieving, if we win 8 that is underachieving IMO.

[Coltsman1788]

I agree with Vegas.  Nine wins for the Colts.  

[NewColtsFan]

39 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah I posted after the draft our over/under would probably be 9.5. I was close. 9 or 10 wins, pick your poison  . I will roll with 10 just because I am very optimistic. If we win 11 that will be overachieving, if we win 8 that is underachieving IMO.

Yeah...   I’m in that 9–10 win range myself.   Plus a spot in the post season. 

 

It’ll be a long summer...  Like everyone else,   looking forward to camp. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

9 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

I agree with Vegas.  Nine wins for the Colts.  

That's fair, now that 7 teams get in that probably gets us into the playoffs as the final spot. I think it will take 10 wins to win the division. I have Titans winning 9 or 10 as well.

[JPFolks]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I voted 10 wins, win AFC South, lose in AFC Title Game. I have a feeling in the playoffs we will upset either the Chiefs or Ravens to reach the AFC Title Game.

That was EXACTLY what I put down! 

[Coltsman1788]

17 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

That's fair, now that 7 teams get in that probably gets us into the playoffs as the final spot. I think it will take 10 wins to win the division. I have Titans winning 9 or 10 as well.

Yeah I have us getting in as a wildcard team.  But I think we can do some damage in the playoffs.  I am usually pretty conservative when it comes to my Colts predictions (until they prove themselves). I try to set myself up to hopefully be pleasantly surprised. 

[AZColt11]

Seems like we're missing "Lose in Divisional Round" for #3, and that's where I would vote.  I still think KC and Baltimore are the 2 to beat in the AFC and we'd likely have to go to one of those two.  But I think we win the division and win the first game at home, then lose to either KC or Baltimore the next week.  10 wins seems about right to me.  I think we sweep Jax and split with Houston and Tenn.  No sweeps in the other divisions.

[Dogg63]

10 wins

Win AFC South

Sweep Texans and Jags

4 Seed

Lose AFC title game

 

We were a 7-9 win team last season and we addressed our three biggest needs (3T, QB, K). Surely we'll be at least a 10 win team this year. Jags are in rebuild mode this year and next, Texans are in BOB's a nutjob mode).

 

[CurBeatElite]

11 wins, win AFC South, 3 seed... not comfortable predicting playoffs until I see how healthy (or not healthy) the Colts and other teams are around that time.... We're built pretty well to beat the Ravens and Chiefs, who I think will be the 1 and 2 seeds.

 

 

2 hours ago, Dogg63 said:

10 wins

Win AFC South

Sweep Texans and Jags

4 Seed

Lose AFC title game

 

We were a 7-9 win team last season and we addressed our three biggest needs (3T, QB, K). Surely we'll be at least a 10 win team this year. Jags are in rebuild mode this year and next, Texans are in BOB's a nutjob mode).

 

 

I'm not too confident about our K's yet.  The Hot Rod missed a lot of crucial kicks in college.  His percent made has decreased every year since his sophomore year -- 77.8% as a freshman, 87% as a soph, 82.6 % as a junior, 81.8% as a senior.  His long as a senior was 50 yards and he was 3-5 from attempts at 50 yards or more.  McLaughlin cost us the Tampa Bay game (IMO -- if we're gonna blame Vinatieri for losing other games, we need to hold his replacement accountable).  There is a reason why he was cut by several other teams before we signed him.  

 

I would also put WR up on the list as top needs.  With the addition of Pittman and Patmon, I think we have really improved that group.  Especially for Rivers, who seemingly likes to have a big-bodied WR.  If TY and Campbell stay healthy, I think we have a very talented WR group -- before the draft, I was kind of concerned about it.

[Dogg63]

1 hour ago, CurBeatElite said:

I'm not too confident about our K's yet.  The Hot Rod missed a lot of crucial kicks in college.  His percent made has decreased every year since his sophomore year -- 77.8% as a freshman, 87% as a soph, 82.6 % as a junior, 81.8% as a senior.  His long as a senior was 50 yards and he was 3-5 from attempts at 50 yards or more.  McLaughlin cost us the Tampa Bay game (IMO -- if we're gonna blame Vinatieri for losing other games, we need to hold his replacement accountable).  There is a reason why he was cut by several other teams before we signed him.  

 

I would also put WR up on the list as top needs.  With the addition of Pittman and Patmon, I think we have really improved that group.  Especially for Rivers, who seemingly likes to have a big-bodied WR.  If TY and Campbell stay healthy, I think we have a very talented WR group -- before the draft, I was kind of concerned about it.

Good point on K - that's why I said 'addressed' rather than 'fixed' but probably should have elaborated. I'm not comfortable yet either especially since we don't have any idea who will be kicking for us this season. It could be Chase, Hot Rod, AV, or someone else entirely. If I had to guess I would pick Chase as the most likely winner of the training camp kicker competition.

 

I'm not with you on WR as a weakness before the draft, and definitely not after it. Sure there were injuries galore last season, but the group was pretty talented. I think multiple WRs who don't make the 53 this season will be picked up by other teams. 

[CurBeatElite]

13 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

Good point on K - that's why I said 'addressed' rather than 'fixed' but probably should have elaborated. I'm not comfortable yet either especially since we don't have any idea who will be kicking for us this season. It could be Chase, Hot Rod, AV, or someone else entirely. If I had to guess I would pick Chase as the most likely winner of the training camp kicker competition.

 

I'm not with you on WR as a weakness before the draft, and definitely not after it. Sure there were injuries galore last season, but the group was pretty talented. I think multiple WRs who don't make the 53 this season will be picked up by other teams. 

 

Agreed that several of our WRs will play on other teams after not making the '55' man roster.

 

I don't disagree about our group being talented last year, but several of the guys that will get cut this year and were playing as #1, 2 or 3 WRs on our team last year will be 4-6 WRs on other teams.  I know we didn't resign Chester Rogers, and would guess he'll get picked up by some other team and make a roster as a 4-6 WR - which is what he is.

 

As I see it, we'll have TY, Pittman, Campbell, Pascal as 'locks' to make team.  I'd bet Patmon is the 5th guy and we'll keep 6 total.  I think Patmon, Dulin, M. Johnson, R. Adams, D. Fountain will all be on NFL rosters to start the year... the question is which ones do we keep as our 5-6 WRs.  I also think C. Williams and D. Harris (more as a returner/flex guy) have good shots at making it in the NFL.  I don't see  A. Scott or M. Henry as much more than practice team guys, but also won't be shocked to see them on our PS or another team's PS.

 

I like Pascal.. but he's a 3-4 WR at best (IMO), with TY, Funchess and Campbell all missing time to injury last year, he was asked to be our #1 for chunks of time.  To me, that's a bit much.