My Guidelines for the draft

[Legend of Luck]

As the draft approaches, I've found that I have a few guidelines for my draft strategy, that after much research and film review, has been consistent for about a month now. So this is what I would do, not what I think will happen. 

Guideline 1- I want to draft IDL and EDGE with our 1st 2 picks.

      Keyword being "want." Just depends on who's available. I think I speak for everyone when I say that we would really like some instant impact players that can rush the passer and help us THIS year. There are plenty of developmental guys further back in the draft, but I think the well runs dry early in the 2nd round. Plus, other needs like WR, TE, and DB are deeper in the middle rounds. My target has been either Wilkins or Tillery in the 1st, and Chase Winovich at 34.

Guideline 2- Unless someone of significant value falls, I'm drafting a WR with our original 2nd round pick.

      Truth is, there are A LOT of receivers I like in this class. I actually think there could be really good players available into the 4th round. HOWEVER, the talent available in the 2nd could be legit, high-end starters. My targets are JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Hakeem Butler, AJ Brown, N'Keal Harry, or Deebo Samuel. This isnt even about "finding Robin to TY's Batman," in my opinion. This is about the future as well, and if we can get a top tier WR that can come in and develop under TY and Reggie and become another go-to guy, our offense could grow to the highest of heights.

If somehow none of them are available, (I'll be heartbroken, but..) I would wait till later and target DeMarcus Lodge, Stanley Morgan Jr., Terry McLaurin, or Marquis Brown.

If the DL options are shallow when we get to pick 34, I'm looking at WR there potentially. At 34, Ballard would have his pick of any of those guys most likely.

Guideline 3- IF I draft a safety, and that's a big IF, it's not gonna be till Day 3.

     I'm still a proponent of using Free Agency to fill any needs for safeties. I like our current safety group a lot, but if someone goes down, there are plenty of affordable options available on the market. I'm still focused on using draft capital elsewhere.

Guideline 4- I'm likely drafting a TE at some point.

     Itll be 3rd round or later, but Jace Sternberger, Kahale Warring... I'm looking at you. I hope one of them is available in round 4. If not maybe Dawson Knox.

Guideline 5- I'm drafting a developmental LT with superior upside

        Round 3, if a LT falls that I think has major upside, I'm pulling the trigger. Got my eye on Bobby Evans. But let's add some more talent to that room and start grooming the future, ESPECIALLY while Howard Mudd is in the building. I'm taking advantage of that as much as possible.


Obviously things change depending on how the board falls, but I feel really really confident in this strategy. If our draft looked even somewhat close to this model, I'm gonna be a happy camper.

In Ballard I trust!!! GO COLTS!!

[#12.]

What did the PFF guy say the other day?  If you listen to our analytics guys, you should either draft a QB or CB in the first two rounds?  Something like that.  Game is changing quickly.  Hard to tell where it will be in 3-4 years.  We're thinking D-line, but maybe not.  Edge rushers are going out of style in the Big 12 and Pac 12.

[#12.]

I can explain it for you, NCF.  To combat the spread, many Big 12 and Pac 12 Ds are going with one edge.  The edge is disappearing west of the Mississippi. 

 

Game is changing.  The same positional values accepted in 2014 or 2019 might look and seem very different in 2023.

 

 

[EastStreet]

My guidelines are simple.

 

Last year, our schedule was 14th (opponent Ds), and 32nd (opponent Os). Our schedule overall is ranked 9th for 2019. We'll play much better Os (7 of top 11 - ATL, KC, LAC, NO, Pitt, TB, CAR), and vs good Ds as well (8 games vs top 12 Ds)

 

1) We have no gaping holes, so use your best picks on positions that will impact our point differential, and areas that kept us from progressing in the playoffs. Simply put, we need to score more, and combat the raised level of QBs we'll face. So give me iDL and WR (legit X with speed) with the first two picks (26 and 34).

 

2) Identify high ceiling candidates (with risks) that you know will be there R5 or later. I this case, I'd target OT Tyler Roemer, CB Jordan Brown, and G Alex Bars. Now subtract those positions (OT, G, CB) from the board.

 

3) With the 59th, 89th, and two 4th round picks, go BPA on S, iLB, TE, RB, Slot. I'd prioritize S, and would be willing to trade a little up if needed to get a guy like Thornhill, CGJ, Thomson, Hooker, or Savage. One of them should be available at 59, but package an 89 or one of the two 4R picks if needed. I'd look for Coney at iLB, Wilson at TE, Snell at RB, and others with the remaining.

 

 

[John Hammonds]

My drafting guidelines:

1 - Draft impact players from top programs.  CB differs from me in this.  He likes to draft great players from small programs who get misdiagnosed.  However!  My guys will have had great enough physical skills to be recruited by the best schools, competed within their program against other great players to be named the starter, and excelled on game day against the best athletes in the world.  If he's an impact player from a top program, he will have already excelled in these things just to get there.

2 - Draft guys who have long experience in their specific position.  Be wary of guys who played WR, then safety, before settling at CB.  They don't have the experience to know all the tricks to the trade to play CB in their sleep.

3 - Draft leaders.  These guys have enough high quality character and leadership ability that they were named team captains at their school.  Even if they aren't as athletic as the next guy.  It happened for a reason.

4 - Don't draft simply based on measurables.  Remember Clemson safety T.J. Green?  6'2", 209 pounds, ran a 4.34 40 yards, etc etc etc?  The measurables said that he should have been superman.  However, the best he could do for this team was be a gunner on punts because he could run fast.  But he didn't know how to play the position.

5 - "You're going to work harder here than you've ever worked anywhere else. And the only thing I ask from you is 'ganas' - desire." -- Jaime Escalante, "Stand and Deliver".  I want guys who want it so bad, their desire bleeds out of them and infects everyone around them.

6 - Know where you're drafting.  Picks 1-5: Immediate impact starter with possible pro bowl as a rookie.  If there's no one there like that when you're picking, trade down if you can.  Picks 6-15: Immediate starter.  Already better at his position than anyone else on your team.  If there's no one like that when you're picking, trade down.  Picks 16-32: Ought to start sometime during his rookie year.  If there's no one like that when you're picking, trade down.  You get the picture.  Know where you're drafting, and don't lie to yourself on the quality of the remaining guys on your board.

7 - Don't draft for today's needs.  Draft for your team's anticipated needs three years from now.

[Superman]

On 4/6/2019 at 6:50 PM, #12. said:

I can explain it for you, NCF.  To combat the spread, many Big 12 and Pac 12 Ds are going with one edge.  The edge is disappearing west of the Mississippi. 

 

Game is changing.  The same positional values accepted in 2014 or 2019 might look and seem very different in 2023.

 

 

 

How does going with one edge rusher combat the spread offense? I'm missing the connection.

[Cynjin]

On 4/6/2019 at 8:26 PM, #12. said:

What did the PFF guy say the other day?  If you listen to our analytics guys, you should either draft a QB or CB in the first two rounds?  Something like that.  Game is changing quickly.  Hard to tell where it will be in 3-4 years.  We're thinking D-line, but maybe not.  Edge rushers are going out of style in the Big 12 and Pac 12.

 

On 4/6/2019 at 9:50 PM, #12. said:

I can explain it for you, NCF.  To combat the spread, many Big 12 and Pac 12 Ds are going with one edge.  The edge is disappearing west of the Mississippi. 

 

Game is changing.  The same positional values accepted in 2014 or 2019 might look and seem very different in 2023.

 

 

 

I'm not sure using the Big 12 and Pac 12 defensive strategies, as an example of where football is going, is a great idea.  They have not been known for being the best defenses in college football.

[shasta519]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

How does going with one edge rusher combat the spread offense? I'm missing the connection.

 

I am confused on that as well. Curious as to what PFF said. Considering they have Rashan Gary ranked #48 on their big board...nothing would surprise me.

[rock8591]

Rashan Gary - either the next Dwight Freeney or Vernon Gholston