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Wharton: Colts-Ansah link will be big if he hits the market


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7 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

I'd honestly rather spend the big money on Andrew Norwell and Jarvis Landry. We could probably get Norwell for around 5 years, 55 mil. And Landry could probably be had for 5 years 60 mil. I'd rather dish out those 2 contracts than something like 5 years, 70 mil which could be around what Ansah gets since pass rushers along the lines of Ansah get paid big dollars in FA.

 

Then in the draft I'm getting Chubb.

 

I would not spend that much money on a skill position player, period. The possibility of a draft pick contributing at a skill position far exceeds the possibility an OL or pass rusher contributes via the draft, thus making OL and pass rusher higher priorities in free agency, IMO. You can add quality depth to OL and pass rusher from the draft while drafting BPA for skill position players in the draft and make it work.

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20 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I would not spend that much money on a skill position player, period. The possibility of a draft pick contributing at a skill position far exceeds the possibility an OL or pass rusher contributes via the draft, thus making OL and pass rusher higher priorities in free agency, IMO. You can add quality depth to OL and pass rusher from the draft while drafting BPA for skill position players in the draft and make it work.

 

I hear ya but at the same time I’m hesitant to spend big money on an aging player who’s had injury issues. Ballard usually go for guys a little younger. 

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3 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

I hear ya but at the same time I’m hesitant to spend big money on an aging player who’s had injury issues. Ballard usually go for guys a little younger. 

 

You don't have to spend it on Ansah but you don't need to spend it on Landry either, is my contention. If I had to choose between the two, a shorter deal for Ansah would cover us from the aging player point of view.

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6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

You don't have to spend it on Ansah but you don't need to spend it on Landry either, is my contention. If I had to choose between the two, a shorter deal for Ansah would cover us from the aging player point of view.

Part of the whole aging thing is increased risk of injury.  Ansah's basically an injury risk times two.  I'm not saying I'm against signing him, but I'd like for it to be more incentive-based than what he's probably looking for.

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1 minute ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Part of the whole aging thing is increased risk of injury.  Ansah's basically an injury risk times two.  I'm not saying I'm against signing him, but I'd like for it to be more incentive-based than what he's probably looking for.

 

Yep, I agree. A shorter incentive based deal for 3 years would be the way to go. Ansah might eventually opt to go for a 1-yr "show me" deal like Dontari Poe did, however it would be nice to realize his upside over 3 years while we develop rushers from the draft.

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7 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Yep, I agree. A shorter incentive based deal for 3 years would be the way to go. Ansah might eventually opt to go for a 1-yr "show me" deal like Dontari Poe did, however it would be nice to realize his upside over 3 years while we develop rushers from the draft.

I can't see this happening. Ansah will get paid and get paid big. Poe's form had fallen, Ansah just had 12 sacks season in 14 games. IMO he will just get paid. 

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5 minutes ago, stitches said:

I can't see this happening. Ansah will get paid and get paid big. Poe's form had fallen, Ansah just had 12 sacks season in 14 games. IMO he will just get paid. 

By all measures, he was having a down season until he put up 6 sacks in the last two games of the season.  I don't think h'ell be getting as big a pay day as you're letting on because he didn't dispel any of hte concerns about his back, not to mention he also had knee and ankle injuries nagging him throughout 2016 and into the first half of 2017.  I think whatever deal he does get, if it's longer term deal anyway, would be with a diminished signing bonus with sack incentives to get it up to his perceived market value.  That's what I would shoot for anyway.  

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19 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

By all measures, he was having a down season until he put up 6 sacks in the last two games of the season.  I don't think h'ell be getting as big a pay day as you're letting on because he didn't dispel any of hte concerns about his back, not to mention he also had knee and ankle injuries nagging him throughout 2016 and into the first half of 2017.  I think whatever deal he does get, if it's longer term deal anyway, would be with a diminished signing bonus with sack incentives to get it up to his perceived market value.  That's what I would shoot for anyway.  

I guess we will see soon enough. I just think some team would bet on his health and their medical/training staff and would be willing to take a risk of having some dead salary for a year or two in the future for the potential of getting one of the better players at a premier position. They might give incentives for games played/sacks/etc. but I believe he will get at least 2 years fully guaranteed and some part of the third year guaranteed with incentives for the rest. There is just way too big demand for pass-rushers in the league.

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9 minutes ago, stitches said:

I guess we will see soon enough. I just think some team would bet on his health and their medical/training staff and would be willing to take a risk of having some dead salary for a year or two in the future for the potential of getting one of the better players at a premier position. They might give incentives for games played/sacks/etc. but I believe he will get at least 2 years fully guaranteed and some part of the third year guaranteed with incentives for the rest. There is just way too big demand for pass-rushers in the league.

He'll get a deal, for sure.  I mean, I want the Colts to sign him if the deal makes sense - but it has to make sense.  I love buy low options, but the risks are always going to be substantial and the salary has to reflect that.  Gosder Cherilus, Arthur Jones. . . they're no good to us if they can't make it on the field.  And as much as I want a player with a high ceiling, gambling on uncertain acccountability tends to work against you far more often than it does in your favor. 

 

If he were to get top 10 money, he'd probably be looking at no less than a $13.5 million/year deal (the transition tag estimate for 2018 is $14.7 million).  Instead of having 50% guaranteed at signing in a 4 year deal with portions of year 3 plus being partially guaranteed, I'd rather see something like 35%-40% guaranteed with incentives carrying the other 10% and a team out option.  I'd be comfortably outbid if he's looking for an Olivier Vernon deal with heavy guarantees. 

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Ansah should be our top target IMO if he hits FA. Pass rush is our biggest weakness and the reason we were unable to close lots of games last year. He can make plays that end games. With that said, I would be surprised if he makes it to FA. Good pass rushers almost never hit free agency. 

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21 hours ago, chad72 said:

e Dontari Poe did, however it would be nice to realize his upside over 3 years while we develop rushers from th

if we want to play some 4-3, Signing Ansah, drafting Chubb would make for a darn good DL rotation..... then just as you need to pay Chubb his big 2nd contract, Ansah's Contract can come off the books.....  I'm not adverse to that line of thought, if the team chooses to go that way

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
1 minute ago, stitches said:

Ansah is off the market. 

Not overly surprised. Even slightly above average pass rushers just never hit the open market. Heck if guys like Nick Perry get $12M a year, it doesn't surprise me that the Lions won't let a guy with 44 sacks in 73 career games get away without a fight. Even with his inconsistency, I still would have loved to had the chance to go after Ansah. Going to be slim pickings out there in free agency for pass rushers that fit what Ballard and company are looking for (i.e. not old and not middle tiered guys paid at upper tier levels).

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15 minutes ago, stitches said:

That's why you need to get your pass-rushers high in the draft. Because the good ones don't even get to FA .. 

I get it, I'm just not enamored with Chubb at all...I would rather draft Edmonds or Davenport in a slight trade back..I actually think Edmonds has potential as an edge rusher once he grows into his body a little bit..Use him at linebacker at first, and work him in as a situationally pass rusher till he gets the feel...

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