Statistical Studies On Age/performance Of Nfl Qbs

[UndecidedFrog]

It will be an interesting off season for the Pats. It's clear that they need a big play receiver and Chad Ochocinco wasn't the answer. Branch is getting old and that leaves Brady with his effective tight ends, and Wes Welker. They will definitely have to address the receiver position for Brady to have continued success. The lack of a play making receiver can partially be blamed for his performance.

That's interesting.

When Luck lost his best WRs due to injury and graduation, he went to his 3 TEs.

[MSColtsFan]

It will be an interesting off season for the Pats. It's clear that they need a big play receiver and Chad Ochocinco wasn't the answer. Branch is getting old and that leaves Brady with his effective tight ends, and Wes Welker. They will definitely have to address the receiver position for Brady to have continued success. The lack of a play making receiver can partially be blamed for his performance.

And Welker is a FA, and not a spring chicken either. Which gets back to the point of what teams with elite QBs do. They know going into it that a huge chunk of the cap is taken up by PM, Brady, Eli, Rivers... which limits what they can do in other places. Watch the Saints this offseason too. Brees, Colston, and Nicks all FA's, all on the O side of the ball. I will be shocked if they keep them all - they likely can't under the cap. There is almost no way they can keep just those three, which doesn't get into the other FAs on the roster, FAs from other teams. Smitto has supplied some of the best posts on this subject in other threads - the cost of an elite QB has huge upsides, but creates a lot of problems too. Teams want an elite QB, obviously, but that comes at the expense of lots of other positions. You better draft well, you better develop (coach up) what you have.

[Jules]

I read that article when it came out.

Also, I can't find it but I might look later. There was an article before the season started about the aging QB and winning SBs. The older you get the harder it gets. History favors younger QBs to win titles.

It is something most don't seem to understand. It happened with Elway but that does not mean it will happen to every QB. Most don't go out with the fairy tale ending no matter how many fans want it.

[Jules]

It will be an interesting off season for the Pats. It's clear that they need a big play receiver and Chad Ochocinco wasn't the answer. Branch is getting old and that leaves Brady with his effective tight ends, and Wes Welker. They will definitely have to address the receiver position for Brady to have continued success. The lack of a play making receiver can partially be blamed for his performance.

Possibly but even with Moss the Pats did not win a title. I know they came a helmet away but they did not win it all. Much of Brady's success in the future will depend on his o line protecting him I feel.

I feel personally that Brady's arm is not as strong as some of the younger guns in the league either.

Thats why the Giants look scary to me. Eli is in his prime and they have a brutal d line. All the pieces are there for a few more titles even.

Rodgers in GB is another if they can get that awful D back to 2010 level. Lions are another team I won't sleep on. Same with the Saints for a few years maybe if they can build the D.

I am more unsure about the AFC. I think new blood might eventually have to emerge. Maybe it's Houston and teams like that, not sure. Maybe Rivers gets his butt in the SB someday. Ben is still young too so I feel Pittsburgh will be in the mix for a while. Bengals are on the rise.

[Superman]

I think in the next few years you will see the Pats develop Mallet or another backup to the point he will be ready to take over after Brady's contract expires in 2014. What will be interesting is how Brady performs next season. Will it show the continuing decline, or will he get back on track?

What continuing decline? The Pats haven't won a Super Bowl, not due to Brady's shortcomings, but because the team isn't as balanced as they used to be (and because they've run into their own personal kryptonite the past two times they've been in the Super Bowl). Maybe they won't want to pay Brady $20 million a year when he's 37, and maybe the next two years his numbers won't be as good as they've been lately, but that's a different story.

Brady's average numbers since turning 30: 4585 yards, 38 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 66.5% completions, 89% winning percentage, 4-4 in the playoffs. I don't see a decline in Brady's performance. I see a decline with the rest of the team.

By the way, I hate that I'm defending Tom Brady right now, but he's clearly one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

[Jules]

Brady has been better I do admit at times. However his best two playoff games I think since 2007 are against the Jaguars in 2007 and the Broncos of this year. Hardly stellar competition compared to other postseason teams.

[UndecidedFrog]

What continuing decline? The Pats haven't won a Super Bowl, not due to Brady's shortcomings, but because the team isn't as balanced as they used to be (and because they've run into their own personal kryptonite the past two times they've been in the Super Bowl). Maybe they won't want to pay Brady $20 million a year when he's 37, and maybe the next two years his numbers won't be as good as they've been lately, but that's a different story.

Brady's average numbers since turning 30: 4585 yards, 38 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 66.5% completions, 89% winning percentage, 4-4 in the playoffs. I don't see a decline in Brady's performance. I see a decline with the rest of the team.

By the way, I hate that I'm defending Tom Brady right now, but he's clearly one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

No doubt Brady is an elite QB.

However, judging from the last SB, his performance did not match his regular season performance, or of other seasons I remember when he was so clutch. Maybe it was just one game....but it was the biggest game of the season.

Let's see how he does in 2012.

[Flash7]

No doubt Brady is an elite QB.

However, judging from the last SB, his performance did not match his regular season performance, or of other seasons I remember when he was so clutch. Maybe it was just one game....but it was the biggest game of the season.

Let's see how he does in 2012.

It's a little unfair to judge Brady on just one game, as you have mentioned. Also we had discussed that he really hasn't had much talent, with the exception of Welker, in his receiving corps and had to heavily rely on his tight ends. And of course, as we were all reminded a million times during Superbowl week, Gronk was injured. This further limited Brady's weapons.

Overall, he had a very good season, and you could argue that despite having a weak defense, and a weak receiving corps he took the team to the superbowl. That's a big accomplishment.

[Superman]

No doubt Brady is an elite QB.

However, judging from the last SB, his performance did not match his regular season performance, or of other seasons I remember when he was so clutch. Maybe it was just one game....but it was the biggest game of the season.

Let's see how he does in 2012.

It was the biggest game of the season for the Giants, also, and their defense has the scheme and the personnel to slow down the Pats, and was playing better than any defense in the league over the past six weeks or so. And Brady's most potent offensive weapon was playing on one leg.

The "Brady is clutch in big games" argument has been highly overstated over the past decade, almost to the point where it's more legend than reality. He was much worse in the AFCCG than the Super Bowl, so I don't get why we're anointing him the GOAT before the Super Bowl, but now that they lost, we're talking about how "Brady doesn't have it anymore.

This whole idea that a quarterback should be judged more heavily on his playoff accomplishments has always bothered me. I've never agreed with it, whether it was to build Brady up as the king of the postseason and tear Manning down as someone who can't win the big one. And I don't agree with it now that it's being used to tear Brady down. Brady is a better quarterback now than he was when the Pats were winning Super Bowls, and in many respects, he did a better job quarterbacking this season than he did in 2007. His team just wasn't as good overall, and they faced a tougher matchup in the Super Bowl.

[UndecidedFrog]

Thanks for the stats. Of course stats are not acurate in every case, but they do give a general idea to base a decision on. Fans who say Peyton has 4 more years are using undocumented stats that about how many successfull QBs there have been at the age of 40. Why do we not think he would be the same old Peyton at the age of 65??? STATS. By the way, if his nerve damage prevents him from throwing a very accurate deep ball, he won't be a QB anywhere. I hope he comes back healthy with a performance based contract and low money and plays well for years, but if I am looking at pay 10's of millions of dollars because of a multi-year contract to a 36 year old QB with nerve damage, you know darn well that I would be looking at stats on the subject.

And this is precisely why I posted the OP. Two studies show that NFL QBs, even the franchise QBs, decline in performance as they age. On average that age is 30-31.

[WoolMagnet]

people with ALS (Lou gherigs) usually die 3-5 years after diagnosis.

Stephen Hawking has been living way past that. (1st time ever mention on here?)

This makes your study irelevant due to the fact that everyone doesn't fit a standard mold in what studies say.

While ther are exceptions to every rule I agree.........

Thinking like that is why some people are broke because they spend all their money on lottery tickets thinking THEY are different.

I'll play the odds..... EVERY time.

[WoolMagnet]

And this is precisely why I posted the OP. Two studies show that NFL QBs, even the franchise QBs, decline in performance as they age. On average that age is 30-31.

And that is even taking into account that they get wiser and smarter in game terms which helps to offset the phsical decline somewhat.

When the body starts to go, it goes FAST.

I'm picturing mark Rypien when he played for us. Man, every action he took was in slow motion.

How old was he when he played for us?

Remember? That was the time Manning missed that ONE snap and Rypien fumbled.

[UndecidedFrog]

And that is even taking into account that they get wiser and smarter in game terms which helps to offset the phsical decline somewhat.

When the body starts to go, it goes FAST.

I'm picturing mark Rypien when he played for us. Man, every action he took was in slow motion.

How old was he when he played for us?

Remember? That was the time Manning missed that ONE snap and Rypien fumbled.

Rypien was 38 or 39 in 2001 when he was with the Colts.

His last TD pass was in 1996, when he was with the Eagles.

I do not remember that!

Please don't remind me. LOL.

[WoolMagnet]

Excellent point. I was talking about this with some baseball fans a few days ago, and they were saying "Yeah, but Oakland still hasn't won anything." Boston has won two since then, and other teams are embracing sabermetrics, more every year. It's not the only way, of course, but for a team with money constraints to have a chance every few years, they better get inventive.

I think NE is the best at using statistics in football.

The way they choose players for their specific skillsets, change their gameplans every week to suit the opponent (not "do what we do"), and target plays that take advantage of opponents weaknesses.

Of couse, the "cameras" didn't hurt either.... obviously. Too bad the league finally put the kabosh to that practice.

[UndecidedFrog]

I am anxiously awaiting 2012 season, so I can track Brady's performance, alongside other aging franchise QBs.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Here's an interesting list to chew on. Sorry about the length, no way around it.

( ) = age of the QB in Super Bowl

IV - 1/11/70

Len Dawson, Kansas City Chiefs - Purdue (34)

Joe Kapp, Minnesota Vikings - California (31)

V - 1/17/71

Johnny Unitas, Baltimore Colts - Louisville (37)

Craig Morton, Dallas Cowboys - California (27)

VI - 1/16/72

Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys - Navy (29)

Bob Griese, Miami Dolphins - Purdue (26)

VII - 1/14/73

Bob Griese, Miami Dolphins - Purdue (27)

Bill Kilmer, Washington Redskins - UCLA (33)

VIII - 1/13/74

Bob Griese, Miami Dolphins - Purdue (28)

Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings - Georgia (33)

IX - 1/12/75

Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers - Louisiana Tech (26)

Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings - Georgia (34)

X - 1/18/76

Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers - Louisiana Tech (27)

Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys - Navy (33)

XI - 1/9/77

Ken Stabler, Oakland Raiders - Alabama (31)

Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings - Georgia (36)

XII - 1/15/78

Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys - Navy (35)

Craig Morton, Denver Broncos - California (34)

XIII - 1/21/79

Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers - Louisiana Tech (30)

Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys - Navy (36)

XIV - 1/20/80

Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers - Louisiana Tech (31)

Vince Ferragamo, Los Angeles Rams - California, Nebraska (25)

XV - 1/25/81

Jim Plunkett, Oakland Raiders - Stanford (33)

Ron Jaworski, Philadelphia Eagles - Youngstown State (29)

XVI - 1/24/82

Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - Notre Dame (25)

Ken Anderson, Cincinnati Bengals - Augustana (IL) (32)

XVII - 1/30/83

Joe Theismann, Washington Redskins - Notre Dame (33)

David Woodley, Miami Dolphins - Louisiana State (24)

XVIII - 1/22/84

Jim Plunkett, Los Angeles Raiders - Stanford (36)

Joe Theismann, Washington Redskins - Notre Dame (34)

XIX - 1/20/85

Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - Notre Dame (28)

Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins - Pittsburgh (23)

XX - 1/26/86

Jim McMahon, Chicago Bears - BYU (26)

Tony Eason, New England Patriots - Illinois (26)

XXI - 1/25/87

Phil Simms, New York Giants - Morehead State (32)

John Elway, Denver Broncos - Stanford (26)

XXII - 1/31/88

Doug Williams, Washington Redskins - Grambling (32)

John Elway, Denver Broncos - Stanford (27)

XXIII - 1/22/89

Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - Notre Dame (32)

Boomer Esiason, Cincinnati Bengals - Maryland (27)

XXIV - 1/28/90

Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - Notre Dame (33)

John Elway, Denver Broncos - Stanford (29)

XXV - 1/27/91

Jeff Hostetler, New York Giants - West Virginia (29)

Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills - Miami (FL) (30)

XXVI - 1/26/92

Mark Rypien, Washington Redskins - Washington State (30)

Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills - Miami (FL) (31)

XXVII - 1/31/93

Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - Oklahoma, UCLA (26)

Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills - Miami (FL) (32)

XXVIII - 1/30/94

Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - Oklahoma, UCLA (27)

Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills - Miami (FL) (33)

XXIX - 1/29/95

Steve Young, San Francisco 49ers - BYU (33)

Stan Humphries, San Diego Chargers - NE Louisiana (29)

XXX - 1/28/96

Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - Oklahoma, UCLA (29)

Neil O'Donnell, Pittsburgh Steelers - Maryland (29)

XXXI - 1/26/97

Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers - Southern Mississippi (27)

Drew Bledsoe, New England Patriots - Washington State (24)

XXXII - 1/25/98

John Elway, Denver Broncos - Stanford (37)

Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers - Southern Mississippi (28)

XXXIII - 1/31/99

John Elway, Denver Broncos - Stanford (38)

Chris Chandler, Atlanta Falcons - Washington (33)

XXXIV - 1/30/00

Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams - Northern Iowa (28)

Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans - Alcorn State (26)

XXXV - 1/28/01

Trent Dilfer, Baltimore Ravens - Fresno State (28)

Kerry Collins, New York Giants - Penn State (28)

XXXVI - 2/3/02

Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Michigan (24)

Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams - Northern Iowa (30)

XXXVII - 1/26/03

Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Florida State (34)

Rich Gannon, Oakland Raiders - Delaware (37)

XXXVIII - 2/1/04

Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Michigan (26)

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers - Louisiana-Lafayette (29)

XXXVIX - 2/6/05

Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Michigan (27)

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia - Syracuse (28)

XL - 2/5/06

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - Miami (OH) (23)

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle - Boston College (30)

XLI - 2/4/07

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - Tennessee (30)

Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears - Florida (26)

XLII - 2/3/08

Eli Manning, New York Giants - Ole Miss (27)

Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Michigan (30)

XLIII - 2/1/09

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - (26)

Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals - (37)

XLIV - 2/7/10

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - (31)

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - (33)

XLV - 2/6/11

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (31)

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (28)

XLVI - 2/5/12

Eli Manning, New York Giants - Ole Miss (31)

Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Michigan (34)

[The Fish]

Roethilisberger is still young and Rodgers is a bit older than I realized.