The Perfect Off-Season From (1/29/12)

[BlueShoe]

When the QB takes a knee to end the half or the game, it ALSO counts as a run play, although it was never intended to do anything more than run down the clock

Yes. We all know this. Thanks. lol

[FireJimCaldwell]

yes, and by "nfl statistics" a sack counts as a rushing attempt...although it was obviously a called pass play that results in a sack...you dont "sack" the QB when the RB has the ball...

So like he said, every QB sack allowed by Pittsburgh also was a called PASS play

When the QB takes a knee to end the half or the game, it ALSO counts as a run play, although it was never intended to do anything more than run down the clock

Yes, I undrestand that.

But his numbers are way off. He has 50% run in 2009 vs me having 44% run in 2009.

In the NCAA sacks count as rushes.

In the NFL they don't count as a rush or a passing attempt.

The sack yardage goes against the team passing totals, but doesn't take away from the QB.

If the team has 45 rushes and 40 passing attempts and 5 sacks. Then they were balanced 50%/50%.

So the sacks would need to be added to passing attempts to get a more accurate # of pass plays. Of course even then it's not 100% accurate since the QB can drop back, be flushed from the pocket and gain 4 yards rushing, so a called pass play, turns into a rushing attempt.

But the best way to determine the pass/run ratio without tracking/charting film would be to take rushing attempts vs. Pass attempts & sacks added together.

[BlueShoe]

Also note that 2010 was the year BBR missed time due to his off season escapades in a tiny Georgia Bar so they likely leaned on the run during that stretch more than they would have with BBR playing.

I just assumed everyone would know that.

That said, What do you think he will do with a rookie quarterback?

Not too hard to see we will be a team relying heavy on the rushing attack.

[BlueShoe]

In the NCAA sacks count as rushes.

In the NFL they don't count as a rush or a passing attempt.

The sack yardage goes against the team passing totals, but doesn't take away from the QB.

If the team has 45 rushes and 40 passing attempts and 5 sacks. Then they were balanced 50%/50%.

So the sacks would need to be added to passing attempts to get a more accurate # of pass plays. Of course even then it's not 100% accurate since the QB can drop back, be flushed from the pocket and gain 4 yards rushing, so a called pass play, turns into a rushing attempt.

But the best way to determine the pass/run ratio without tracking/charting film would be to take rushing attempts vs. Pass attempts & sacks added together.

Again I can't speak for everyone but this is already understood.

Now how and the heck did you get 50% run in 2009?

That was my point about "where you got the numbers from" to begin with.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Again I can't speak for everyone but this is already understood.

Now how and the heck did you get 50% run in 2009?

That was my point about "where you got the numbers from" to begin with.

I didn't provide any %'s. I'm not sure if you added the sacks to the rushes to get that %, but I didn't provide any %'s. I just provided the # of sacks that should be added to the # of passing attempts to signify the # of pass plays.

I got my numbers from the NFL stat site. www.nflgsis.com, it's password protected so it's not of any help.

The link you provided didn't have "complete" information. but if you go to the team stat section(referenced below) you will see they have a category called scrimmage plays.

Using your example for 2011

2011: Run 434 Pass 539 (45% Run)

That makes it seem like they ran 973 plays.

When in fact they ran 1,015

434 rushes

539 passing attempts

42 sacks

http://www.nfl.com/s...=true&Submit=Go

So 434 rushes vs. 581(passes + sacks) = 42.7% rushes out of offensive plays.

For 2009, I would say that they had a 42.2% to 57.8% run to pass ratio.

[ace_6900]

In are Pagano, Arians, and Butler.

The Colts have moved in a new direction of the AFC North in the attempts to become a smash mouth play football type of football team. Run the ball and play great defense will be our philosophy.

Peyton, I love you but I think Irsay has made it clear that it is time for Peyton to retire. Obviously Irsay knows Peyton’s medical condition and out of loyalty and respect he is not disclosing that information directly to the media. It is just a matter of time before Peyton comes to grips with the reality that his career is over. It’s terrible as a Colts fan to see this happen to such a great player.

Enter Andrew Luck.

The new era will not be built around Andrew Luck. It will be built around playing great defense and a run first offense. Andrew Luck will benefit from this the same way Tom Brady and Ben Rothlisberger have benefited from being in their systems. That being said, Luck has far more upside than either of them. He might only throw the ball 20 to 25 times a game in his first few seasons. His completion percentage might not be among the best in the NFL because he will be throwing the ball on third and longs more than on first and ten. He might only pass for 3000 yards a season over his first few years. This is who we will be; however it is the same type of offensive mentality Luck comes from college to the NFL with. Stanford is a run first offense.

We need to franchise or re-sign Reggie Wayne. (LEADERSHIP!) We need a veteran wide receiver to help the younger players along. Without having to pay Peyton this season, we will have the money to bring Reggie back. Reggie will continue to be our possession receiver and be a huge asset to the Colts.

Enter Kendall Wright.

With our second pick if we could land the speedster from Baylor then we would have a replacement for Garcon, only Wright can catch the ball. His shake and bake will demand a double team and make play action a nightmare for teams.

Austin Collie is in his final year and can resume his duties as the slot receiver. Were it not for injuries in 2010 and weak quarterback play in 2011 then Austin would be among the top five receivers in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns over the past few years. He was leading the league or close to it in 2010 when he went down to injury.

Our running back situation is solid. Donald Brown could flourish in our new offense. Donald is under contract until the 2013 season. Joseph Addai is also under contract until the 2014 season. This one two punch will continue to be the leading ball carriers for the Colts. Delone Carter’s fumble issues might be too much to take a chance on as ball control offense cannot afford a running back putting the ball on the ground every game.

We have our tackles in place. Ijalana could move inside if needed, however Castonzo and Ijalana look to be our starting tackles moving into the 2012 season. We will need to address the middle of the offensive line; center and right guard.

Dallas Clark is under contract until the 2014 season; however he is weak in pass protection and run blocking. Cutting him is an option but I don’t see us doing that this season. Andrew Luck is great in utilizing his tight ends in the passing game. Lucks ability to find his tight ends at such a young age is one of the telling signs of just how NFL ready he is. Most quarterbacks do not start using their tight ends until they are at the elite status. Jacob Tamme is a free agent and he will get an offer to move on. Brody Eldridge is a great fit for the new run first mentality and might see the field as much or more than Clark because of his ability to block. If Eldridge can stay healthy he could become a star in the new offensive approach.

So why would we go offense with our first and second picks? The answer is pretty simple, in my opinion. We need to have balance and if we can’t move the ball then we should just throw balance out of the window. No defense can hold up in the modern NFL era if their offense struggles to score points and effectively move the ball.

Free agency could be big for us this season. With the new type of defense we will be running I expect for Moala and Nevis to become our starting defensive ends. We will need to address the nose tackle and defensive tackle spots so we can move from a 3-4 look to a 4-3 look. It is possible that Anthony Johnson could be the defense tackle in the 4-3 schemes and he is under contract until 2013. We will need to bring in a nose tackle or draft one. If Dontarie Poe is available when we draft our second pick them he would be a great move; however he is moving up the boards and will likely be a first round pick, especially with all of the 3-4 teams drafting later in the first round.

Our corners can’t play man to man. We will need to bring in a free agent corner or two.

We are in a good situation at linebacker. I think Simms, Wheeler, and Brackett will be out and we will retain Angerer, and Conner. It appears that we are going to try to plug Freeney in at the jack role and we are serious about re-signing Mathis. Those two seem pretty upbeat about their future in Indianapolis. Time will tell if it works.

At the safety position, Bethea will flourish in a defense that can actually stop plays before they get to Bethea. How many times did Bethea save a touchdown last season? It was like every other play it seemed. Allowing Bethea to play looser could make him into an Ed Reed type of player who can make game changing and winning plays instead of game saving plays. Bullit signed a three year deal last season so I would expect him to be our opening day strong safety as long as he can stay healthy. Again, with our safeties not having to make the majority of the run stops and saving tackles we might just be able to keep them both very healthy and allow for them to be much more productive.

Okay so we need a nose tackle, at least one (but likely) two man corners, depth at linebacker, re-sign (or franchise) Reggie Wayne, a speed receiver to stretch the field (Kendall Wright), a center to replace Saturday, a real right guard, and depth on the offensive line.

Do these moves indicate that we are certain to have a championship in 2012? Obviously not, but we will be in a good position to be a contender and build towards the future. I could see a 9-7 record with that team and we would be a team that no team wants to play down the stretch. We would be younger and also have Luck’s years from two to four be downright scary for the rest of the NFL.

the thing your missing is we hired a defensive HC the second pick will be on defense and arians is a pass first OC

[FireJimCaldwell]

The Steelers Offense Under Arians:

2008: Run 460 Pass 506 (47% Run)

2009: Run 428 Pass 536 (44% Run)

2010: Run 471 Pass 479 (50% Run)

2011: Run 434 Pass 539 (45% Run)

Scrimmage plays
2008 1015
2009 1014
2010   993
2011 1015

If you add in the sacks to pass plays, you'll then have a more accurate ratio.

2008		    49
2009		    50
2010		    43
2011		    42

[oldunclemark]

In are Pagano, Arians, and Butler.

The Colts have moved in a new direction of the AFC North in the attempts to become a smash mouth play football type of football team. Run the ball and play great defense will be our philosophy.

Peyton, I love you but I think Irsay has made it clear that it is time for Peyton to retire. Obviously Irsay knows Peyton’s medical condition and out of loyalty and respect he is not disclosing that information directly to the media. It is just a matter of time before Peyton comes to grips with the reality that his career is over. It’s terrible as a Colts fan to see this happen to such a great player.

Enter Andrew Luck.

The new era will not be built around Andrew Luck. It will be built around playing great defense and a run first offense. Andrew Luck will benefit from this the same way Tom Brady and Ben Rothlisberger have benefited from being in their systems. That being said, Luck has far more upside than either of them. He might only throw the ball 20 to 25 times a game in his first few seasons. His completion percentage might not be among the best in the NFL because he will be throwing the ball on third and longs more than on first and ten. He might only pass for 3000 yards a season over his first few years. This is who we will be; however it is the same type of offensive mentality Luck comes from college to the NFL with. Stanford is a run first offense.

We need to franchise or re-sign Reggie Wayne. (LEADERSHIP!) We need a veteran wide receiver to help the younger players along. Without having to pay Peyton this season, we will have the money to bring Reggie back. Reggie will continue to be our possession receiver and be a huge asset to the Colts.

Enter Kendall Wright.

With our second pick if we could land the speedster from Baylor then we would have a replacement for Garcon, only Wright can catch the ball. His shake and bake will demand a double team and make play action a nightmare for teams.

Austin Collie is in his final year and can resume his duties as the slot receiver. Were it not for injuries in 2010 and weak quarterback play in 2011 then Austin would be among the top five receivers in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns over the past few years. He was leading the league or close to it in 2010 when he went down to injury.

Our running back situation is solid. Donald Brown could flourish in our new offense. Donald is under contract until the 2013 season. Joseph Addai is also under contract until the 2014 season. This one two punch will continue to be the leading ball carriers for the Colts. Delone Carter’s fumble issues might be too much to take a chance on as ball control offense cannot afford a running back putting the ball on the ground every game.

We have our tackles in place. Ijalana could move inside if needed, however Castonzo and Ijalana look to be our starting tackles moving into the 2012 season. We will need to address the middle of the offensive line; center and right guard.

Dallas Clark is under contract until the 2014 season; however he is weak in pass protection and run blocking. Cutting him is an option but I don’t see us doing that this season. Andrew Luck is great in utilizing his tight ends in the passing game. Lucks ability to find his tight ends at such a young age is one of the telling signs of just how NFL ready he is. Most quarterbacks do not start using their tight ends until they are at the elite status. Jacob Tamme is a free agent and he will get an offer to move on. Brody Eldridge is a great fit for the new run first mentality and might see the field as much or more than Clark because of his ability to block. If Eldridge can stay healthy he could become a star in the new offensive approach.

So why would we go offense with our first and second picks? The answer is pretty simple, in my opinion. We need to have balance and if we can’t move the ball then we should just throw balance out of the window. No defense can hold up in the modern NFL era if their offense struggles to score points and effectively move the ball.

Free agency could be big for us this season. With the new type of defense we will be running I expect for Moala and Nevis to become our starting defensive ends. We will need to address the nose tackle and defensive tackle spots so we can move from a 3-4 look to a 4-3 look. It is possible that Anthony Johnson could be the defense tackle in the 4-3 schemes and he is under contract until 2013. We will need to bring in a nose tackle or draft one. If Dontarie Poe is available when we draft our second pick them he would be a great move; however he is moving up the boards and will likely be a first round pick, especially with all of the 3-4 teams drafting later in the first round.

Our corners can’t play man to man. We will need to bring in a free agent corner or two.

We are in a good situation at linebacker. I think Simms, Wheeler, and Brackett will be out and we will retain Angerer, and Conner. It appears that we are going to try to plug Freeney in at the jack role and we are serious about re-signing Mathis. Those two seem pretty upbeat about their future in Indianapolis. Time will tell if it works.

At the safety position, Bethea will flourish in a defense that can actually stop plays before they get to Bethea. How many times did Bethea save a touchdown last season? It was like every other play it seemed. Allowing Bethea to play looser could make him into an Ed Reed type of player who can make game changing and winning plays instead of game saving plays. Bullit signed a three year deal last season so I would expect him to be our opening day strong safety as long as he can stay healthy. Again, with our safeties not having to make the majority of the run stops and saving tackles we might just be able to keep them both very healthy and allow for them to be much more productive.

Okay so we need a nose tackle, at least one (but likely) two man corners, depth at linebacker, re-sign (or franchise) Reggie Wayne, a speed receiver to stretch the field (Kendall Wright), a center to replace Saturday, a real right guard, and depth on the offensive line.

Do these moves indicate that we are certain to have a championship in 2012? Obviously not, but we will be in a good position to be a contender and build towards the future. I could see a 9-7 record with that team and we would be a team that no team wants to play down the stretch. We would be younger and also have Luck’s years from two to four be downright scary for the rest of the NFL.

We cant play smash-mouth football indoors in and offesnive fueled league....

We play inside and in warm weather places/...

We have to have a big time offense.....Our new coaches coached smash mouth in Pitt and Baltimore.

but they wont have running offenses in Indy because we'll be outscore din our own building

Our model is New Orleans...offensively..

We will have to attack offensively. we cant win games 20-17

This is a totally different playing enviroment..than Pittsburgh and Baltimore

[BlueShoe]

I didn't provide any %'s. I'm not sure if you added the sacks to the rushes to get that %, but I didn't provide any %'s. I just provided the # of sacks that should be added to the # of passing attempts to signify the # of pass plays.

I see. You were adding in sack totals. I thought you were correcting the percentages.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I see. You were adding in sack totals. I thought you were correcting the percentages.

Yeah that first post was the # of sacks, and not a % sorry for any confusion.

[MAC]

Bruce Arians is our OC...he is NOT a "run first/smash mouth" guy, he is EXTREMELY pass heavy in his play calling...which if you have a Peyton Manning or an Andrew Luck, the QB SHOULD be the focal point of the offense...whats the use of having a great QB if you dont use him effectively?

With Arians as OC, I don't know why you would think we will shift to a run first, smash-mouth offense. Arians (much to the chagrin of Steelers fans) is one of the most pass-happy coordinators in the league

the thing your missing is we hired a defensive HC the second pick will be on defense and arians is a pass first OC

We cant play smash-mouth football indoors in and offesnive fueled league....

We play inside and in warm weather places/...

This is a totally different playing enviroment..than Pittsburgh and Baltimore

I agree with all four of you - but I mostly replied to ask that you PLEASE don't quote the entirety of a treatise such as this OP. I'm getting a cramp in my scrolling finger just reading this thread.

[coltsblue1844]

I'm sorry for looking at the guy and not seeing him as God's Gift to Football like he is being portrayed.

I'd rather take Manning over him in a heartbeat.

i would much rather have Manning, also...but if he's unable to get medical clearance/unable to play, having Luck is a pretty good plan B going forward

[smittywerb]

In all honesty, if we could bring in Courteland Finnegan, I would be estatic, yeah I said it! He would definitely bring that smashmouth football mentality to our defensive backfield. He would fit right in with Butch and Pagano.

[Kyle]

In all honesty, if we could bring in Courteland Finnegan, I would be estatic, yeah I said it! He would definitely bring that smashmouth football mentality to our defensive backfield. He would fit right in with Butch and Pagano.

:sadno:

[bellboys]

so far the coaching staff has been interesting at best. Yes alot of people are wanting Luck. And yes the colts will possibly draft him. Myself I hope Manning can get healthy and play for us this next season and be able to show Luck how to read the def. for a couple of years.But if not then we will just have to watch Luck grow as a QB in the NFL. Just like we did in 1998. But I guess the real question is as fans are we more concern about winning or more about someone health and watching him walk onto the field to be inducted into the ROH or watching him being wheeled out in a wheelchair to be honored. (Sorry had to get that off my chest) the o-line needs some more work a Mudd style line coach is needed here. Along with some big d-lineman

[smittywerb]

:sadno:

I know, no one on this board does not likes him. But IDC if he is not a "character guy", he gets the job done.

[Captain Americolt]

The last time he got the job done was in 08(?).. When he made the pro bowl. He is an average player who is very over-rated and only shows up in news when hes being unproffessional. Ive seen peyton and others burn him soo many times its not even funny.. Gettin him would not improve us. Only worsen our reputation as being a class act team. Brent Grimes is far better choice imo

[oldunclemark]

I agree with all four of you - but I mostly replied to ask that you PLEASE don't quote the entirety of a treatise such as this OP. I'm getting a cramp in my scrolling finger just reading this thread.

treatise?

Come on MAC..I went to public school... :ashamed:

[doogansquest]

Peyton, I love you but I think Irsay has made it clear that it is time for Peyton to retire. Obviously Irsay knows Peyton’s medical condition and out of loyalty and respect he is not disclosing that information directly to the media. It is just a matter of time before Peyton comes to grips with the reality that his career is over. It’s terrible as a Colts fan to see this happen to such a great player.

When did Irsay make this clear? Didn't he say quite the opposite? Hasn't Peyton been seen throwing? Is the fusion not 100%? Who are you to tell him to "come to grips with reality"?

Just curious as to how you think you know this.

It sounds like you are crossing your arms and stomping your foot because the Colts are going to take a quarterback whether Manning is healthy or not. Get over it. I've heard every anti-luck argument out there and they are all based on assumptions.

What assumptions? Most people know for a fact it's best to keep Peyton Manning once he's healthy. We know he wins. Any pro-Luck argument is based entirely on assumptions, as he's proven nothing against good college teams, and he's done nothing in the NFL.

Which is more outrageous? Knowing what Manning will deliver when he comes back? Or assuming some college kid with a pedigree no different than any other touted prospect will win multiple Super Bowls? That's how far some of your Luckies are reaching, and it's based on nothing. Absolutely nothing. Like most of your arguments.

[MAC]

treatise?

Come on MAC..I went to public school... :ashamed:

How about "gi-normous freaking post".

[smittywerb]

When did Irsay make this clear? Didn't he say quite the opposite? Hasn't Peyton been seen throwing? Is the fusion not 100%? Who are you to tell him to "come to grips with reality"?

Just curious as to how you think you know this.

What assumptions? Most people know for a fact it's best to keep Peyton Manning once he's healthy. We know he wins. Any pro-Luck argument is based entirely on assumptions, as he's proven nothing against good college teams, and he's done nothing in the NFL.

Which is more outrageous? Knowing what Manning will deliver when he comes back? Or assuming some college kid with a pedigree no different than any other touted prospect will win multiple Super Bowls? That's how far some of your Luckies are reaching, and it's based on nothing. Absolutely nothing. Like most of your arguments.

Just to play devil's advocate, it's a chance any rookie QB whether it's Luck, RG3, or Moore is gonna stink it up. So you think if Peyton was to go, we should draft a rookie and sign a proven QB?

[BlueShoe]

When did Irsay make this clear? Didn't he say quite the opposite? Hasn't Peyton been seen throwing? Is the fusion not 100%? Who are you to tell him to "come to grips with reality"?

Just curious as to how you think you know this.

Just pay attention. Listen to what Irsay is saying.

[WSO]

When did Irsay make this clear? Didn't he say quite the opposite? Hasn't Peyton been seen throwing? Is the fusion not 100%? Who are you to tell him to "come to grips with reality"?

Just curious as to how you think you know this.

What assumptions? Most people know for a fact it's best to keep Peyton Manning once he's healthy. We know he wins. Any pro-Luck argument is based entirely on assumptions, as he's proven nothing against good college teams, and he's done nothing in the NFL.

Which is more outrageous? Knowing what Manning will deliver when he comes back? Or assuming some college kid with a pedigree no different than any other touted prospect will win multiple Super Bowls? That's how far some of your Luckies are reaching, and it's based on nothing. Absolutely nothing. Like most of your arguments.

At least with Luck, we can assess his skills (mechanics, accuracy etc.) at this point in time right now. Manning on the other hand is a huge question mark. So lets re-cap. You get the chance to look at a quarterback who is not NFL-proven but on the otherhand is 100% healthy, has the tools to be an NFL quarterback, is a great prospect, and will be available for the Colts to take at the #1 spot. With Manning, you have a QB who is not healthy, we have no idea what his health is right now, we have no idea how he will be post-surgery, and signs point to him being cut due to salary implications and or health concerns.

[wercolts]

Run first smash mouth and recent Super Bowl winners are not used much in the same sentence anymore. See the Packers, Saints, Colts, Patriots, Giants and even the Steelers who had to air it out to get past the Cardinals.

[Malakai432]

What assumptions? Most people know for a fact it's best to keep Peyton Manning once he's healthy. We know he wins. Any pro-Luck argument is based entirely on assumptions, as he's proven nothing against good college teams, and he's done nothing in the NFL.

One, we all know if Peyton is 100% he's the man. But your second argument is invalid, Stanford has swept Notre Dame and USC in the last three years, also have beat Orgeon in 2009 a year when Orgeon was very solid, also obliterated Nick Foles & Arizona twice since 2009 (even though they suck). Standford also creamed a solid Virgina Tech team early 2011, 12-40 in the Orange Bowl. In 2009 the Cardinals beat the #8th and #9th seeds in both Orgeon and USC. They also put up two very solid bowl games since 2009, losing to Oaklahoma & Oaklahoma St. by a total of 7 points. Clearly we can see he HAS proven something against good college teams. Just because he hasn't consistantly went up against teams like LSU and Alabama doesn't mean he hasn't proved anything against some very solid college teams.

[Malakai432]

....