According to football outsiders DVOA, Tom Brady is suffering the 2nd worst single-decline by a QB in the past 23 years behind only Farves 2010 season.

[GoPats]

 

The Pats offense is a chameleon year to year. Brady is anything but a system QB.

 

 

Brady's "system?" Win games. Sign me up! 

[dgambill]

I'm curious to know what the angle is for people who want to see Brady fail.

 

Do you think he suddenly forgot how to throw a football accurately? Or is it more likely that there are other factors? 80% of last year's targets gone from the roster? Two rookie receivers playing prominent roles? The permanent loss of one TE and temporary loss of another who have been the focal point of the offense for the past couple of seasons? His sausage-like-fingers swollen up on his throwing hand? 

 

Maybe the hope/angle is that this is the "real" Tom Brady and his average performance is a truer indication of the type of player he is?

 

Here's what I've (objectively) seen this season:

 

Started off ugly, epitomized in that Thursday night game with the Jets. For the first few weeks, receivers were dropping balls, running wrong routes, etc. Statistically the Patriots still are the worst NFL team in drops, and most of that happened in the first few weeks. 

 

Beginning with the loss to the Bengals, Brady started playing a bit poorly. It wasn't as much like the first few weeks where he was throwing to a spot where a receiver should have been, or hit someone in the chest with it and they dropped it. Some throws were just a foot or two off, some were much worse than that. I don't know when he banged up his right hand but it would stand to reason it happened around that time. 

 

So ask yourself what's more likely when it comes to his statistical decline. Did one of the game's top QBs for over a decade suddenly start throwing bad passes to the wrong spots? Or is it probable that the near-complete turnover of pass-catching personnel, coupled with an untimely injury to his hand, is more likely the culprit? 

 

I'm not making excuses for him here - he hasn't been perfect by any means. But I have a hard time believing that Tom Brady suddenly turned 36 and forgot how to play football. Or that he hit some kind of magical "age wall." He's still humming it out there... just hasn't been getting the results. 

Same as the ones that want to see Peyton fail....he isn't the Colts qb. Honestly this board isn't as bad as some I've been on but most people are so blindly loyal to their team they make up irrational opinions to make them feel better about their guy or team. Fact is Brady seems to be hurt....most of his offense is gone...his OL is banged up...and yes...he has not had that laser accuracy he has had in years past. Main thing...he hasn't LOST games for the team....any mistake he makes would be magnified even further with the offensive woes the team has. We saw it with Brees last year....when the offense is out of sort these great qbs naturally aren't going to live up to the level they have been. When you have been used to seeing guys set passing records every year like Peyton, Drew, and Tom when a guy has a down year like say Peyton in 2010 when he was throwing to Blair White its going to not look good. I remember that year he had a stretch not unlike Eli where we lost several games in a row and he had a pick spree...but he overcame it and led us into the postseason...and should have beat NY that year. Tom will be fine. He may not have an award winning year but he knows how to win....its in his bones...and short of breaking them he will be just fine. That defense so far has been a SB caliber defense...now its showing signs of strain with injuries but if Talib gets healthy I look for them to be just fine. Teams don't run the ball like they used too...and it will be hard to exploit the hole in the middle.

[oldunclemark]

Favre went 10-6 that season and made the playoffs. Brady is on pace to go 12-4 this year and win his division and maybe a bye as well. Even the great ones when they have an off-season stats-wise still win.

This is the truth....statistical declines after 1/2 a season are almost irrelevant when your team is 6-2 and in 1st place.

You do enough to win if you can..and you don't need more than that

Cant compare 2013 to 2012 or any other year because his team is different..

I don't think anyone who is aware of the vast turnover ion WRs and TEs on New England would say Brady is ion decline..because of his passing stats ignoring the wins,,

Is Adrian Peterson having an off year because Minnesota is 1-6

[Superman]

This is the truth....statistical declines after 1/2 a season are almost irrelevant when your team is 6-2 and in 1st place.

You do enough to win if you can..and you don't need more than that

Cant compare 2013 to 2012 or any other year because his team is different..

I don't think anyone who is aware of the vast turnover ion WRs and TEs on New England would say Brady is ion decline..because of his passing stats ignoring the wins,,

Is Adrian Peterson having an off year because Minnesota is 1-6

 

Adrian Peterson's season so far is in line with his career averages. It's not anywhere near as prolific as 2012 was, but that doesn't make it an off year.

 

Tom Brady is having an off year so far, from a personal production standpoint, because he hasn't had this kind of production since his first year in the NFL, back when he was nowhere near the quarterback he's shown himself to be since then. Doesn't mean he's in decline. Just means his production as a quarterback has suffered. There are multiple reasons why that's so, chief among them being the roster status. 

 

We all know what Brady is capable of. Doesn't matter to me that his numbers aren't that good, given his team's record. But I think it's safe to say that he'll have to produce more against Pittsburgh, Denver, Baltimore, etc. 

[amfootball]

Adrian Peterson's season so far is in line with his career averages. It's not anywhere near as prolific as 2012 was, but that doesn't make it an off year.

 

Tom Brady is having an off year so far, from a personal production standpoint, because he hasn't had this kind of production since his first year in the NFL, back when he was nowhere near the quarterback he's shown himself to be since then. Doesn't mean he's in decline. Just means his production as a quarterback has suffered. There are multiple reasons why that's so, chief among them being the roster status. 

 

We all know what Brady is capable of. Doesn't matter to me that his numbers aren't that good, given his team's record. But I think it's safe to say that he'll have to produce more against Pittsburgh, Denver, Baltimore, etc. 

A better example is probably Larry Fitzgerald who has had a similar drop off in talent around him like Brady especially at the QB position the last couple of years and his production has suffered as a result but we all know he is money.

[Superman]

A better example is probably Larry Fitzgerald who has had a similar drop off in talent around him like Brady especially at the QB position the last couple of years and his production has suffered as a result but we all know he is money.

 

I don't think either of them are good examples or comparisons, especially not Fitz. Receivers are dependent on the QB being able to get the ball to them. A receiver can beat his man every down and never get the ball. Having a terrible quarterback doesn't impact his ability to run routes or catch the ball. 

 

Brady's mechanics and accuracy are clearly affected. Neither of those has anything to do with the players around him. I'm sure his injured hand is affecting him. Again, I'm not saying Brady is on the decline or anything like that, just saying that throwing to lower caliber receivers doesn't explain why Brady has been missing more than usual.

[amfootball]

I don't think either of them are good examples or comparisons, especially not Fitz. Receivers are dependent on the QB being able to get the ball to them. A receiver can beat his man every down and never get the ball. Having a terrible quarterback doesn't impact his ability to run routes or catch the ball. 

 

Brady's mechanics and accuracy are clearly affected. Neither of those has anything to do with the players around him. I'm sure his injured hand is affecting him. Again, I'm not saying Brady is on the decline or anything like that, just saying that throwing to lower caliber receivers doesn't explain why Brady has been missing more than usual.

As usual, we can agree to disagree. If Brady had Fitzgerald they would be breaking Moss' 23 TDs record this year. Brady's receivers are not just young but unable to get separation for him. His ability to put up stats has everything to do with not having one receiver from last year that he has chemistry with along with the Pats complex offensive system that requires the WRs to be on the same page as Brady. The only inaccuracies I have seen from Brady have been on the deep ball which has never been a strong area for him. His short and medium range passes have been there all year and have been either dropped or receiver in wrong place or a throw away because no one is open.

[Superman]

As usual, we can agree to disagree. If Brady had Fitzgerald they would be breaking Moss' 23 TDs record this year. Brady's receivers are not just young but unable to get separation for him. His ability to put up stats has everything to do with not having one receiver from last year that he has chemistry with along with the Pats complex offensive system that requires the WRs to be on the same page as Brady. The only inaccuracies I have seen from Brady have been on the deep ball which has never been a strong area for him. His short and medium range passes have been there all year and have been either dropped or receiver in wrong place or a throw away because no one is open.

 

So you mean to tell me that if you put one of the best quarterbacks of all time with one of the best receivers of this generation, they'd both be playing better? You don't say...

 

I don't think they'd be going for the touchdown record, but whatever. It goes without saying that they'd both be producing more than they are now. 

 

It doesn't surprise me that you don't see any inaccuracies from Brady except the ones you want to see. That's in keeping with the pattern. Meanwhile everyone else in the football world, including Pats fans, can admit that his accuracy has suffered. 

 

Also, it's the height of irony that before the season started, you were adamant that Brady wouldn't miss a beat without Welker, Lloyd and Hernandez, and that Gronk would be back and ready to cure all ills. Now, every problem with the Patriots passing game is entirely about substandard receivers and lack of chemistry.

 

I think Brady is good enough to win with below average receivers. He's done it before. And I think the young guys will get better, and Gronk will get better, and if Amendola can stay on the field, he'll get better. And if they give Austin Collie a fair shot, he'll fit right in. The Pats will be fine. Brady will be fine. But he's clearly not performing the way we're used to seeing him perform, even with substandard receiving options. He's missed throws, short, intermediate and long, that he usually doesn't. The interception against the Dolphins was a short throw that just wasn't placed well. And that happens to everyone; I'm not saying it's an indication that Brady is done, just saying it's laughable that you'd assert that Brady's only misses come on deep balls. 

[amfootball]

So you mean to tell me that if you put one of the best quarterbacks of all time with one of the best receivers of this generation, they'd both be playing better? You don't say...

 

I don't think they'd be going for the touchdown record, but whatever. It goes without saying that they'd both be producing more than they are now. 

 

It doesn't surprise me that you don't see any inaccuracies from Brady except the ones you want to see. That's in keeping with the pattern. Meanwhile everyone else in the football world, including Pats fans, can admit that his accuracy has suffered. 

 

Also, it's the height of irony that before the season started, you were adamant that Brady wouldn't miss a beat without Welker, Lloyd and Hernandez, and that Gronk would be back and ready to cure all ills. Now, every problem with the Patriots passing game is entirely about substandard receivers and lack of chemistry.

 

I think Brady is good enough to win with below average receivers. He's done it before. And I think the young guys will get better, and Gronk will get better, and if Amendola can stay on the field, he'll get better. And if they give Austin Collie a fair shot, he'll fit right in. The Pats will be fine. Brady will be fine. But he's clearly not performing the way we're used to seeing him perform, even with substandard receiving options. He's missed throws, short, intermediate and long, that he usually doesn't. The interception against the Dolphins was a short throw that just wasn't placed well. And that happens to everyone; I'm not saying it's an indication that Brady is done, just saying it's laughable that you'd assert that Brady's only misses come on deep balls. 

Let me ask you, how many of the Pats games this year have you watched? I have watched every snap of every game - the ones I did not see live, I have on tape. I have watched Brady's entire career and pretty much every Pats game going back to 1984. I assure you the numbers as usual only tell half the story.

 

This is what I have observed from the offense thus far:

1) This entire season the offense has been out of sync which is to be expected given all the new players at the skill spots. They have yet to put together a 60 minute game of solid execution.

2) Brady is holding the ball much longer because his receivers are not getting separation and then when they are open they are dropping an awful lot as his core is second in the league in drops. In addition, the first few weeks the young WRs were often in the wrong spot. That appears to have gotten better slowly over the past couple of weeks as Dobson has led the team in receptions the last three weeks with 13 catches.

3) The majority of Brady's misses this season have been deep. He has had some short and medium ones but not anymore that I have seen in previous years. His two picks that last two games were to Gronk as he is staring him down a bit because he just got him back and is the only receiver he trusts at this point, again understandably.

4) He is throwing away the ball a ton because guys are not open and he will avoid a sack at all costs. And even still, he is getting sacked a lot.

5) His Oline has not been very good this year missing easy pick ups that have cause negative plays and has caused him to rush his throws. And when he is rushed, his throws are off just like every other QB in the league.

 

I do not see any decline whatsoever in Brady's game. His velocity has not changed, his motion looks fine and his hand is banged up. His offense has been musical chairs all season. Even the guys that were supposed to replace Welker and Woodhead which were Amendola and Vareen have not played so Brady is on his third level of talent at two key positions. That is huge and the reason for the decline this season - too much change all at once. Lost on most folks is that fact that the Pats did not replace Hernandez at all because he got arrested in June leaving them with no options to find a replacement that late in the off-season.

 

Also, I never said the offense would be the same this year. I repeatedly said the offense would be good enough but that the Pats would go only as far as their secondary which has looked lights out when Talib has been on the field. And that is exactly what has happened. As mediocre as Brady's stats are, he is making enough good plays to get this team to 6-2 with a much improved defense despite the injuries and a solid run game. Honestly, this is how I pretty much saw the season playing out if the Pats were healthy. if you had told me that during the season we would lose both of our defensive captains along with Vareen, Amendola and Talib for extended periods of time, I would have guessed 4-4 right now. So, I am pleasantly surprised at where the team is and do agree that the offense should look more in sync especially with the bye coming up next week.

[Superman]

Let me ask you, how many of the Pats games this year have you watched?

 

I've watched three entirely, and of the rest. And in that relatively shortened period, I've seen plenty of missed throws. Again, not that that means anything, as every quarterback misses throws. Just saying, Brady isn't only missing long.

 

To the rest of your post, I don't necessarily disagree with it. There's a bunch of things going on with the Pats right now. I'm not trying to bury Tom Brady. I'm just saying that he's not playing well right now.

[amfootball]

I've watched three entirely, and of the rest. And in that relatively shortened period, I've seen plenty of missed throws. Again, not that that means anything, as every quarterback misses throws. Just saying, Brady isn't only missing long.

 

To the rest of your post, I don't necessarily disagree with it. There's a bunch of things going on with the Pats right now. I'm not trying to bury Tom Brady. I'm just saying that he's not playing well right now.

I know where you are coming from and don't disagree regarding Brady's performance but I see his struggles as primarily a factor of the team around him. Hard not to given the crazy circumstances. If I was seeing a drop in his game, I would call it out. I have not seen it. I have seen some poor decisions, some misses, but most of all frustration with trying to get everyone on the same page. I do think the second half of the season will be better as if anything the Pats have proven over their run is that they self correct better then anyone and come down the stretch playing their best football. Hopefully that holds true this season.

[Superman]

I know where you are coming from and don't disagree regarding Brady's performance but I see his struggles as primarily a factor of the team around him. Hard not to given the crazy circumstances. If I was seeing a drop in his game, I would call it out. I have not seen it. I have seen some poor decisions, some misses, but most of all frustration with trying to get everyone on the same page. I do think the second half of the season will be better as if anything the Pats have proven over their run is that they self correct better then anyone and come down the stretch playing their best football. Hopefully that holds true this season.

 

 

I've said multiple times that the chief factor is the state of the roster. Probably 80% of it. But I do think Brady's throwing and decision making has suffered a little bit. The decision making has a lot to do with confidence in his teammates, but some of his throws don't look right.

 

To the bolded, I don't believe you. But that's fine.

[amfootball]

I've said multiple times that the chief factor is the state of the roster. Probably 80% of it. But I do think Brady's throwing and decision making has suffered a little bit. The decision making has a lot to do with confidence in his teammates, but some of his throws don't look right.

 

To the bolded, I don't believe you. But that's fine.

Yes his throws have been off. No doubt. Much is the teammates and probably the busted hand. The last two games his throws have been off more than the others and then we see his hand swollen up like a watermelon.

 

You don't have to believe me. But I will call it out if I see it.

[GoPats]

I think Supes and AMfootball need their own ESPN show! 

[amfootball]

I think Supes and AMfootball need their own ESPN show! 

I think we would be far better then Skip and Stephen A.

[GoPats]

Well, yesterday's game will certainly help Brady's cause. 

[Snowglobe]

prepare yourself denver

[-JJ-]

I think Supes and AMfootball need their own ESPN show! 

Yeah but I would prefer to see the 1/2 hour version- not the long one

[-JJ-]

I've watched three entirely, and of the rest. And in that relatively shortened period, I've seen plenty of missed throws. Again, not that that means anything, as every quarterback misses throws. Just saying, Brady isn't only missing long.

 

To the rest of your post, I don't necessarily disagree with it. There's a bunch of things going on with the Pats right now. I'm not trying to bury Tom Brady. I'm just saying that he's not playing well right now.

Having watched all the games myself I agree mostly with AM but also see the same thing you see in accuracy.

Yesterday his accuracy came back 10 fold. The receivers were catching the ball with "both" hands on the run which means it wasn't over or under thrown.

Sometimes its hard to tell if the inaccuracy is on the receiver or the QB since we don't know the exact pattern.

Stats aside I think Brady is playing well this year in the sense of holding an inexperienced WR corp together and winning games in spite of. Whether by patience, game management, mentor or whatever he is handling the game as a veteran.

Still there appeared to be some inaccuracies.

Some of the balls to Gronk showed what the difference is. But also Dobson is getting better too.

[Superman]

Well, yesterday's game will certainly help Brady's cause. 

 

Yeah, Brady is still Brady.

[amfootball]

Yeah, Brady is still Brady.

That is what I have been trying to tell you. ;)

[amfootball]

Having watched all the games myself I agree mostly with AM but also see the same thing you see in accuracy.

Yesterday his accuracy came back 10 fold. The receivers were catching the ball with "both" hands on the run which means it wasn't over or under thrown.

Sometimes its hard to tell if the inaccuracy is on the receiver or the QB since we don't know the exact pattern.

Stats aside I think Brady is playing well this year in the sense of holding an inexperienced WR corp together and winning games in spite of. Whether by patience, game management, mentor or whatever he is handling the game as a veteran.

Still there appeared to be some inaccuracies.

Some of the balls to Gronk showed what the difference is. But also Dobson is getting better too.

The biggest difference yesterday for Brady was Gronk. He was quicker and more sure of himself. Less worried about his forearm it seemed which allowed him to go all out instead of playing tentative like he had been the last two weeks. His play opened things up for Amendola deep as well as Dobson. So much of the Pats O is based on timing, rhythm and receivers being on the same page as Brady. Of course it helps when Dick LeBeau is the DC too as Brady owns him. lol.

[Superman]

That is what I have been trying to tell you. ;)

 

I never said he wasn't, that's what I was trying to tell you. I just said he hadn't been playing well.

[amfootball]

I never said he wasn't, that's what I was trying to tell you. I just said he hadn't been playing well.

Fair enough. When I read your posts I got the sense that you were questioning if Brady's skills might be declining.

[Superman]

Fair enough. When I read your posts I got the sense that you were questioning if Brady's skills might be declining.

 

Even though I said very plainly that I wasn't suggesting Brady was in a decline?

 

 

Doesn't mean he's in decline. 

 

 

Again, I'm not saying Brady is on the decline or anything like that...

 

 

I'm not saying it's an indication that Brady is done...

[amfootball]

Even though I said very plainly that I wasn't suggesting Brady was in a decline?

The fact that you said it three times means that I was sensing that you were indicating a decline. My fault. Carry on.

[bavanlan]

[Moose Of Woe]

[GoPats]

 

LOL, I think that whole thing was in response to the viral video of Edelman leaving Brady hanging a couple of weeks ago...

 

Either that or he's saying, "Who just threw an 81-yard TD pass? Me! Neener-neener-neeeee-nerrrrr!" 

[amfootball]

LOL, I think that whole thing was in response to the viral video of Edelman leaving Brady hanging a couple of weeks ago...

 

Either that or he's saying, "Who just threw an 81-yard TD pass? Me! Neener-neener-neeeee-nerrrrr!" 

Yeah that is why Brady is great. Never afraid to make fun of himself ....

[dgambill]

Brady vs Pitts defense....thats one way to get healthy. Back to old Brady...he looked his HOF self. /thread