2023 QB Draft Class

[RollerColt]

Just putting this thread and thought out there: 

 

Anyone else notice how this current draft class has some similarities to the 2017 class? 

 

We've got three major QB prospects, of whom none are perfect and seen as "can't miss". Once upon a time Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson were viewed in a similar fashion. Just seems interesting that here we are some 6-7 years later with yet another similar situation. 

[DaColts85]

Trubisky was pushed as a great prospect imo. He didn’t have much college experience and wasn’t that solid at UNC. Never understood the hype. Mahomes and Watson fit more of the mold.   
 

I guess I am not seeing the similarity you are. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, RollerColt said:

Just putting this thread and thought out there: 

 

Anyone else notice how this current draft class has some similarities to the 2017 class? 

 

We've got three major QB prospects, of whom none are perfect and seen as "can't miss". Once upon a time Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson were viewed in a similar fashion. Just seems interesting that here we are some 6-7 years later with yet another similar situation. 

To me this class reminds me a bit more of the 2018 class... Mayfield being in the Young mold, Darnold ~ Stroud, Levis ~ Josh Allen, and Anthony Richardson ~ Lamar Jackson... 

 

This is strictly as prospects, not making any predictions about whether they will turn out the same way... 

[RollerColt]

24 minutes ago, stitches said:

To me this class reminds me a bit more of the 2018 class... Mayfield being in the Young mold, Darnold ~ Stroud, Levis ~ Josh Allen, and Anthony Richardson ~ Lamar Jackson... 

 

This is strictly as prospects, not making any predictions about whether they will turn out the same way... 

Very good observation. It's hard to not make comparisons when all three have noticeable characteristics. 

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Very good observation. It's hard to not make comparisons when all three have noticeable characteristics. 

Yep, and they are not all 1-to-1 comparisons. For example, Darnold had some Levis characteristics, too, but was nowhere near as athletic. 

[DaColts85]

CJ Storud still hasn’t declared for the draft either. So if he stays in college this draft just got even more crazy. 

[RollerColt]

2 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

CJ Storud still hasn’t declared for the draft either. So if he stays in college this draft just got even more crazy. 

And he might not. He could stay for one more year and see if he can get that National Championship title with a large portion of the Georgia team graduating. 

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

CJ Storud still hasn’t declared for the draft either. So if he stays in college this draft just got even more crazy. 

Stroud is actually the youngest of them all so... there is at least a hint of reasonableness behind such decision, but I thought after that game vs Georgia he wouldn't get any higher in draft than now... 

[RollerColt]

41 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Trubisky was pushed as a great prospect imo. He didn’t have much college experience and wasn’t that solid at UNC. Never understood the hype. Mahomes and Watson fit more of the mold.   
 

I guess I am not seeing the similarity you are. 

That's fair. I think I'm looking just more at the similarity of *potentially* three QB prospects being taken in the first round near each other, where all three have flaws that prevent them from being "Andrew Lucks", similar to the 2017 class. 

[Defjamz26]

I see it
 

Levis is the potential Josh Allen type. Guy with traits but didn’t have a great final year in college. Teams will like the character because of the competitive toughness he shown. Also didn’t have a great supporting cast and the Junior year was better than the senior year.

 

Young is Watson. Should be the consensus top guy and he won a lot, but people question his transition to the next level. Is definitely the most special out of of all the prospects and has the best tape coming out.

 

Richardson is Mahomes. Not in terms of skill set but he’s the boom or bust guy who could go much higher than people think, because if he refines his game he could be special.

 

 

[indykmj]

5 hours ago, RollerColt said:

And he might not. He could stay for one more year and see if he can get that National Championship title with a large portion of the Georgia team graduating. 

 

NIL likely factoring in too. Had the HC of an in-state (IN) Div III team tell me the other day 

that Stroud got 4.1 mil for playing in 2022.

[twfish]

22 hours ago, stitches said:

Stroud is actually the youngest of them all so... there is at least a hint of reasonableness behind such decision, but I thought after that game vs Georgia he wouldn't get any higher in draft than now... 

it would be a massive mistake. There’s no where higher for his stock to rise. He could rise to QB 1 depending on pro days and Young’s size concerns to dropping to the 3rd QB taken but no way he falls below a top 7 pick. Next year I think it’s likely he ends up being the 3rd or 4th ranked QB if not worse. Plus it would show he’s likely only in it for the money which could steer teams away from him. Rarely has going back to school ever worked out for a top 10 prospect.

[ColtV]

On 1/13/2023 at 7:43 PM, indykmj said:

 

NIL likely factoring in too. Had the HC of an in-state (IN) Div III team tell me the other day 

that Stroud got 4.1 mil for playing in 2022.

Very good point. While there has always been money getting to players in some way in college football, with it now all above board in the form of NIL cfb players dont have that pressure to jump. 

[crazycolt1]

12 hours ago, ColtV said:

Very good point. While there has always been money getting to players in some way in college football, with it now all above board in the form of NIL cfb players dont have that pressure to jump. 

In Strouds case he may legitimately want to go to college one more year. He came so close to playing in a championship game its got to enter his mind.  If he is getting paid what he wants, then why not? 

[DaColts85]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

In Strouds case he may legitimately want to go to college one more year. He came so close to playing in a championship game its got to enter his mind.  If he is getting paid what he wants, then why not? 

Not only will he make millions staying in college but he also gets to stay with friends and live it up in college. The NFL pressure and being a rookie is different. If I were him I would take advantage of that as well. 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

So, what's the deadline to declare for the draft or to decide on returning to college? 

 

I didn't know college QBs get paid that well. Could it be that Stroud wants to perfect his craft, win a championship and not in it for the money?

 

Money definitely helps for sure, to earn where he's great at his college job while he'll have to prove himself in the NFL. I am not sure if NFL teams would be critical of him for not coming out a year sooner for monetary reasons. 

 

If the scouts say Stroud isn't a "can't miss" prospect yet, why wouldn't he try to improve in areas of his game where they're critical of him? 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

To me, Mahomes comparison this draft class would be with Herndon Hooker. Not projecting any success necessarily, but just comparing their college offenses, it looks like the system Hooker played isn't said to be transferable to the NFL game.

 

Mahomes coming from Texas Tech air raid scheme, as well, had similar concerns in his draft projections, which is why I think Trubisky was said to be more safer pick because of the offensive style he had played, even if that was for just a year or so. Watson was considered to be a "can't miss" prospect, to be the best match for the NFL game. 

 

Mahomes and Hooker have had gaudy stats in college, were said to be having good work ethic and drive to compete and win games. 

 

It's easier to not rate Hooker highly in this draft class, because of his system in college and due to the injury and age, but if he has got the knowledge and understanding of different offenses, transition to the NFL game for him would only require his application and effort to learn and practice the NFL offense.

 

Hooker would have the "advantage" of not having to start immediately in the NFL, and would've enough time to learn, practice and watch from the sidelines how the NFL offenses and defenses operate, and what he'd need to do to make use of his traits while transitioning to the Pro level, just like how Mahomes had a year to learn with Andy Reid. 

[chad72]

23 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

To me, Mahomes comparison this draft class would be with Herndon Hooker. Not projecting any success necessarily, but just comparing their college offenses, it looks like the system Hooker played isn't said to be transferable to the NFL game.

 

Mahomes coming from Texas Tech air raid scheme, as well, had similar concerns in his draft projections, which is why I think Trubisky was said to be more safer pick because of the offensive style he had played, even if that was for just a year or so. Watson was considered to be a "can't miss" prospect, to be the best match for the NFL game. 

 

Mahomes and Hooker have had gaudy stats in college, were said to be having good work ethic and drive to compete and win games. 

 

It's easier to not rate Hooker highly in this draft class, because of his system in college and due to the injury and age, but if he has got the knowledge and understanding of different offenses, transition to the NFL game for him would only require his application and effort to learn and practice the NFL offense.

 

Hooker would have the "advantage" of not having to start immediately in the NFL, and would've enough time to learn, practice and watch from the sidelines how the NFL offenses and defenses operate, and what he'd need to do to make use of his traits while transitioning to the Pro level, just like how Mahomes had a year to learn with Andy Reid. 

 

Yeah, it is all about the support system the QB goes into. The Chiefs started with Hill, Kelce and a great play caller (still) with Andy Reid. Pretty soon, teams caught up to the backyard ball and Mahomes was forced to be patient and become a QB, which is good for him in the long run. The next SB Mahomes will win will be with him as a better QB. Bengals on the other hand, have had the luxury of cap space without having to pay Higgins, Burrow and Chase.

[stitches]

Stroud just declared for the draft:

 

 

[chad72]

26 minutes ago, stitches said:

Stroud just declared for the draft:

 

 

 

Stroud never got to play a Big 10 championship game in Indy. Justin Fields did. 

 

Now, Stroud could get to be in Indy for good. Colts and Buckeye players, hopefully this Buckeye bucks that history.

[ColtV]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Stroud just declared for the draft:

 

 

Very good news for the Colts. Without Stroud there was a real danger of the Colts needing to move up to 1 at most and 3 at least or be left out in the cold w/out a qb at 4

[stitches]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Stroud never got to play a Big 10 championship game in Indy. Justin Fields did. 

 

Now, Stroud could get to be in Indy for good. Colts and Buckeye players, hopefully this Buckeye bucks that history.

I still don't know if I prefer him over the other QBs... but it's better to have the option than not have it. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

Stroud just declared for the draft:

 

 

 

So much for Stroud having fun in '23.   

[Archer]

I’m starting to wonder just how much competition we’ll really have if we decide to move up for a QB:

2) Hou.  Definitely will want one, but can sit where they are and select a franchise QB, and they may figure anyone jumping them may be after a different one.

3) Arizona.  Nope -Murray.

4) us.

5) Sea - Already negotiating to bring Geno back.

6) DET - Goff actually graded out pretty well and is under LT contract.

7) LV - Definitely has a need, but I bet LV will end up with Brady.

8) Atl - Reportedly loves Ridder.

9) Car - They have a big need and should explore the trade-up.  They’ve got good draft capital this year with two 2nds.  This could be our closest competition.

10) Philly-Nope.

11) Tenn - Nope, Willis.

Later Dark Horses) - NYJ, GB, Wash, TB

 

Houston and Carolina are possibilities, but the Colts would give them enough of a return to make it worthwhile while still affording them the opportunity to draft a premium DL..

 

[Defjamz26]

6 hours ago, Archer said:

I’m starting to wonder just how much competition we’ll really have if we decide to move up for a QB:

2) Hou.  Definitely will want one, but can sit where they are and select a franchise QB, and they may figure anyone jumping them may be after a different one.

3) Arizona.  Nope -Murray.

4) us.

5) Sea - Already negotiating to bring Geno back.

6) DET - Goff actually graded out pretty well and is under LT contract.

7) LV - Definitely has a need, but I bet LV will end up with Brady.

8) Atl - Reportedly loves Ridder.

9) Car - They have a big need and should explore the trade-up.  They’ve got good draft capital this year with two 2nds.  This could be our closest competition.

10) Philly-Nope.

11) Tenn - Nope, Willis.

Later Dark Horses) - NYJ, GB, Wash, TB

 

Houston and Carolina are possibilities, but the Colts would give them enough of a return to make it worthwhile while still affording them the opportunity to draft a premium DL..

 

My guess is the Bears don’t want to fall past the Will Anderson/Jalen Carter range. So I don’t think they’ll entertain too many teams outside the top 5. 4 is the perfect spot for them. You’re guaranteed one of those two guys at 4. Any further you risk losing them both.

 

Plus the Colts can give them the players they need. If they feel The Cardinals really like Carter, they can ask the Colts for Buckner and still get Anderson. But I don’t see it as much of an issue. LV and Carolina would have to give up a nice chunk to get up into the top 5. Idk if it’s worth it for them.

[stitches]

6 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

My guess is the Bears don’t want to fall past the Will Anderson/Jalen Carter range. So I don’t think they’ll entertain too many teams outside the top 5. 4 is the perfect spot for them. You’re guaranteed one of those two guys at 4. Any further you risk losing them both.

 

Plus the Colts can give them the players they need. If they feel The Cardinals really like Carter, they can ask the Colts for Buckner and still get Anderson. But I don’t see it as much of an issue. LV and Carolina would have to give up a nice chunk to get up into the top 5. Idk if it’s worth it for them.

Agreed. Now the question is - how much do they value the difference between Will Anderson/Jalen Carter and the next bunch of prospects? And is another team willing to give them that difference? For example, is there a 49ers in 2021 type team who would give up 3 1st round picks + to go from 7-11 to 1? 

[Archer]

12 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

My guess is the Bears don’t want to fall past the Will Anderson/Jalen Carter range. So I don’t think they’ll entertain too many teams outside the top 5. 4 is the perfect spot for them. You’re guaranteed one of those two guys at 4. Any further you risk losing them both.

 

Plus the Colts can give them the players they need. If they feel The Cardinals really like Carter, they can ask the Colts for Buckner and still get Anderson. But I don’t see it as much of an issue. LV and Carolina would have to give up a nice chunk to get up into the top 5. Idk if it’s worth it for them.

I don’t think I’d give up Buckner, but I’d give them Pittman in the last year of his contract…

[DaColts85]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I don’t think I’d give up Buckner, but I’d give them Pittman in the last year of his contract…

I think all that trade talk is smoke and mirrors. Why would the Bears want another WR going into a contract year? Clay pool and Mooney are needing a contract next year as well. Adding another makes no sense. 

[Defjamz26]

4 hours ago, Archer said:

I don’t think I’d give up Buckner, but I’d give them Pittman in the last year of his contract…

If I had to pick I’d also rather trade Pittman over Buckner. I wonder if the Bears would pick swap for Pittman, Moore, and a 2022 2nd.

[DaColts85]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

If I had to pick I’d also rather trade Pittman over Buckner. I wonder if the Bears would pick swap for Pittman, Moore, and a 2022 2nd.

You think that Pittman in his last year of contract and a terrible Kenny Moore plus I’m assuming you meant this years 2023 2nd rounder would be enough to jump to the first pick? That’s a little laughable. 

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

You think that Pittman in his last year of contract and a terrible Kenny Moore plus I’m assuming you meant this years 2023 2nd rounder would be enough to jump to the first pick? That’s a little laughable. 

To go up 3 spots, yes. If no one else calls with offers, it could be the best deal they get. Two players who can start on a team that has no talent and an extra 2nd wouldn’t be a bad deal. Or maybe offer them two 2nd round picks. This years two and next years two.

[DaColts85]

7 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

To go up 3 spots, yes. If no one else calls with offers, it could be the best deal they get. Two players who can start on a team that has no talent and an extra 2nd wouldn’t be a bad deal. Or maybe offer them two 2nd round picks. This years two and next years two.

I mean if we could get them to accept that offer Ballard would be crowned greatest ever. Anything is possible though. 

[holeymoley99]

Id sit at 4 honestly, seeing multiple articles saying we will jump to 1 for Levis, I think we can sit at 4 and get him. With 2 D Line going top 3 we are good. If we have to settle for Bryce Young it isnt the end of the world he should be serviceable though likely not elite.

 

https://www.aseaofblue.com/2023/1/18/23561072/nfl-mock-draft-2023-colts-trade-bears-will-levis-kentucky-wildcats

[DaColts85]

25 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

Id sit at 4 honestly, seeing multiple articles saying we will jump to 1 for Levis, I think we can sit at 4 and get him. With 2 D Line going top 3 we are good. If we have to settle for Bryce Young it isnt the end of the world he should be serviceable though likely not elite.

 

https://www.aseaofblue.com/2023/1/18/23561072/nfl-mock-draft-2023-colts-trade-bears-will-levis-kentucky-wildcats

I hope we stay at 4 as well. It all depends on what guy they coveted through the process and who they see as a guy other teams will want as well. One of the 3 will be there at 4 but is it the guy Ballard wants? Can he risk sitting a waiting? Key questions for sure. 

[Archer]

14 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

I mean if we could get them to accept that offer Ballard would be crowned greatest ever. Anything is possible though. 

Honestly, I think many people are underestimating the value of the #4 pick.  Not only are there the two premium QBs, but we could be talking about this DL class as a great one.  Anderson, Carter, and Murphy are all very coveted players.  Think about our #4 vs. Carolina's #9.  Ours would allow Chicago to choose from two of those great DL, whereas Carolina's would put those guys out of reach.  I think the Bears will try to figure out how to get the most return they can while still assuring them a premium DL (hopefully their DL of choice).  To me, that means our offer doesn't have to be as impressive in terms of number of picks as others farther down the draft (like LV or CAR).

[chad72]

24 minutes ago, Archer said:

Honestly, I think many people are underestimating the value of the #4 pick.  Not only are there the two premium QBs, but we could be talking about this DL class as a great one.  Anderson, Carter, and Murphy are all very coveted players.  Think about our #4 vs. Carolina's #9.  Ours would allow Chicago to choose from two of those great DL, whereas Carolina's would put those guys out of reach.  I think the Bears will try to figure out how to get the most return they can while still assuring them a premium DL (hopefully their DL of choice).  To me, that means our offer doesn't have to be as impressive in terms of number of picks as others farther down the draft (like LV or CAR).

 

Yeah, Bears fans (realistic ones) want:

No.4, Future 1st, Current 2nd, Future 2nd

 

 

Colts fans want to give:

No.4, Future 1st, Current 3rd

 

 

Final Ballard verdict might end up:

No.4, Future 1st, Current 2nd, Kenny Moore

 

I think, the Bears, after they are at No.4, will decide if they want to give up the chance to get a premium DL or not, to trade down and get more picks. It is very likely the Raiders, Falcons and Panthers won't give up 3 firsts to move up to No.1. But you are right, being at No.4 is ideal for them to get what they want and need plus draft equity for the future. It is almost a MUST for the Bears to move to No.4 to open up options because it is an easier spot for Raiders, Falcons and Panthers to jump to than No.1.

[Archer]

7 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Final Ballard verdict might end up:

No.4, Future 1st, Current 2nd, Kenny Moore

 

This seems realistic to me.  

[DaColts85]

53 minutes ago, Archer said:

Honestly, I think many people are underestimating the value of the #4 pick.  Not only are there the two premium QBs, but we could be talking about this DL class as a great one.  Anderson, Carter, and Murphy are all very coveted players.  Think about our #4 vs. Carolina's #9.  Ours would allow Chicago to choose from two of those great DL, whereas Carolina's would put those guys out of reach.  I think the Bears will try to figure out how to get the most return they can while still assuring them a premium DL (hopefully their DL of choice).  To me, that means our offer doesn't have to be as impressive in terms of number of picks as others farther down the draft (like LV or CAR).

I get that the Bears don’t want to move to far down. The very same Bears moved from 3 to 2 and gave up the first (swap), there 2nd and 4th plus the 3rd the following year to the 49ers. That was to move one spot. Going from 4 to 1 they should ask for as much as possible honestly. 

[DaColts85]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Yeah, Bears fans (realistic ones) want:

No.4, Future 1st, Current 2nd, Future 2nd

 

 

Colts fans want to give:

No.4, Future 1st, Current 3rd

 

 

Final Ballard verdict might end up:

No.4, Future 1st, Current 2nd, Kenny Moore

 

I think, the Bears, after they are at No.4, will decide if they want to give up the chance to get a premium DL or not, to trade down and get more picks. It is very likely the Raiders, Falcons and Panthers won't give up 3 firsts to move up to No.1. But you are right, being at No.4 is ideal for them to get what they want and need plus draft equity for the future. It is almost a MUST for the Bears to move to No.4 to open up options because it is an easier spot for Raiders, Falcons and Panthers to jump to than No.1.

I could see this. 

[throwing BBZ]

15 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

I hope we stay at 4 as well. It all depends on what guy they coveted through the process and who they see as a guy other teams will want as well. One of the 3 will be there at 4 but is it the guy Ballard wants? Can he risk sitting a waiting? Key questions for sure. 

 

 Ideally the Bears swap with the Texans who PLEASE take Young.

 The Bears wisely take the pass rusher.

 The Cards trade out of 3 to a QB hungry team. Say Stroud.

  We trade with LV to 6 and they take Levis

  Detroit takes the DT

  And we draft Richardson. Yippee