Management Agrees with Nickster

[DougDew]

Just now, w87r said:

I

 

Wish you would of listed players, so I don't have to think as hard. Lol.

 

 

I don't know? I think that is a little base. 

 

 

Have taken 3 OL(Q, Smith, Kelly(Grigson pick)) and 3 WR(Pittman, Campbell, Pierce in first 2 rounds of draft.

 

While having AC in place before early retirement up until Paye pick(passed on LT), edge was just a big a need and they picked up Fisher(didn't pan out, I guess?) Also this is before TY just totally dropped off the cliff as well.

 

 

Speaking of Fisher, unless I'm mistaken isn't Fisher still available? Wonder what the chances are we bring him back if they are not happy with were Prior/Raimann?

I understand players were in positions at the time  But its not like TY and ACs ages were a surprise for the last 5 years.  I think AC had to be coaxed out of retirement before he signed his last contract.  

 

I also understand that a GM doesn't want to reach for players at positions, and drafts fall certain ways.  

 

I'm just agreeing with Nick.  The execution of the plan does not seem to have fulfilled the intent of the plan at this point.  Unless being a run heavy between the tackles team is the plan.

[Superman]

17 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I remember seeing some fans or even Nelson wearing RTDB on a hat at one point.  Maybe I misremember.

 

Absolutely. Still doesn't mean anyone is calling for a run heavy offense. That's a misnomer.

[Myles]

16 minutes ago, w87r said:

I

 

Wish you would of listed players, so I don't have to think as hard. Lol.

 

 

I don't know? I think that is a little base. 

 

 

Have taken 3 OL(Q, Smith, Kelly(Grigson pick)) and 3 WR(Pittman, Campbell, Pierce in first 2 rounds of draft.

 

While having AC in place before early retirement up until Paye pick(passed on LT), edge was just a big a need and they picked up Fisher(didn't pan out, I guess?) Also this is before TY just totally dropped off the cliff as well.

 

 

I am with you in this.    When you have the starter in place, the most you do is draft potential late in the draft.   You do not draft starter potential in the first or second round.  

 

[#12.]

Ideally you would like to be balanced, but with as unproven as your WRs and TEs are, riding Taylor early on is the smart thing to do.  If Campbell stays healthy and Alec and Jelani improve, you then become more and more balanced.

 

You must get the first two games. Absolute must.  If it's all Taylor and you win the first two 17-14 and 14-10, so be it.

[Nickster]

20 minutes ago, w87r said:

I

 

Wish you would of listed players, so I don't have to think as hard. Lol.

 

 

I don't know? I think that is a little base. 

 

 

Have taken 3 OL(Q, Smith, Kelly(Grigson pick)) and 3 WR(Pittman, Campbell, Pierce in first 2 rounds of draft.

 

While having AC in place before early retirement up until Paye pick(passed on LT), edge was just a big a need and they picked up Fisher(didn't pan out, I guess?) Also this is before TY just totally dropped off the cliff as well.

 

 

Speaking of Fisher, unless I'm mistaken isn't Fisher still available? Wonder what the chances are we bring him back if they are not happy with were Prior/Raimann?

 

Well that's kind of the point.  AC had been leaning retirement for a while, and nothing was done that I'm aware of to develop a LT as far as I can tell.   Now we are throwing a journeyman lineman who's never been the preferred starter at any OL position let alone LT.   We have Raimann for the future but not the now. 

 

We needed EDGE no doubt.  But we'd had drafted high 2nds with numerous picks and pretty much failed, then we traid #13 for a DT and paid him an extremely high salary.  Again, ain't saying it was wrong, but it sure seemed we prioritized DL over the passing game. 

[Nickster]

4 hours ago, FanOutOfTown said:

Absolutely have to have balance on offense. Need to be able to kill the clock when ahead with a strong run game, but also need to be able to sling it down field to get those explosive plays. All work in tandem. Can’t stack the box trying to stop the run if you got guys on the outside that can take the top off the defense.

This is one of the real unrealities that most board members have on the impact JT's running had last year.

 

Teams didn't stack the box against us at a high rate.  It's just a fact that you can look up in Next Gen stats.  It just didn't happen like people think.  To me pulling a safety down into the box is very risky v. JT any way.  Sure you would be able to stuff the gaps make him bounce which he's not good at and get a few more short runs, but if you drop that safety and are only 1 high, then you are risking one of his 80 yard TDS. WHereas with 2 deep, you are more likely to limit the super long runs.  Also, I would guess that teams would be less likely to play man with their backs to JT for the same reasons.  

 

V. NE last year, JT had an unremarkable day until that last run when NE was selling out to try to get the ball back.  Single high, then Dante I think it was gets faked out of his jock on the one cut, runs into the safety, Game over. 

 

The 2 back can attack that 2 deep as well. 

[DougDew]

13 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Absolutely. Still doesn't mean anyone is calling for a run heavy offense. That's a misnomer.

Just adding color and thinking perhaps Frank is responding to that group.

 

I do think folks who bother to wear a hat like that also like the idea of having an oline that that pancakes the defenders nearly ever play.  Getting fired up over the possibility of a lot of future pancakes is akin to wanting a run heavy offense, IMO.   But I don't think that group is very large.  

[Four2itus]

[Nickster]

6 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

 

OK, Forty.  what do you need buddy?  I don't want you to be bored.  

See some of us adults are actually discussing the game of football on this thread. 

[Nickster]

15 hours ago, w87r said:

So he definitely pulled a muscle patting himself on the back then.

 

That is the post of the month lol.  

[Superman]

20 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Teams didn't stack the box against us at a high rate.  It's just a fact that you can look up in Next Gen stats.  It just didn't happen like people think. 

 

Quantify "high rate." JT faced 8 man boxes on 26.8% of his 332 carries last season. 

[Nickster]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Quantify "high rate." JT faced 8 man boxes on 26.8% of his 332 carries last season. 

 

That's about league average isn't it?  I could be wrong about this, but that is what I remember seeing discussed. 

 

And this shows 13.3%     https://fantasydata.com/nfl/advanced-rb-metrics

[Superman]

Just now, Nickster said:

That's about league average isn't it?  I could be wrong about this, but that is what I remember seeing discussed. 

 

Probably. I agree that defenses weren't putting 8 in the box every down to stop JT, and I agree that it wouldn't be wise because he can get to your second level and be gone before you know it. But it's not like no one was stacking the box.

[Nickster]

10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Probably. I agree that defenses weren't putting 8 in the box every down to stop JT, and I agree that it wouldn't be wise because he can get to your second level and be gone before you know it. But it's not like no one was stacking the box.

OOPS Edit:  This chart was from 2020, but assuming the numbers weren't drastically different then JT's 26.8% wasn't anything remarkable.   Surprised how hard it is to find that stats. 

 

I didn't say no one was stacking the box I just said it wasn't like that's what teams were doing v. him. So by this chart he was fairly well down the list of backs v. stacked boxes.  About Average would be my guess.  This chart shows at least 8 guys ahead of him.

 

I think that's what people think happened last year and it just didn't.  Not at any inordinately high rate any way. 

[w87r]

Just now, Nickster said:

 

That is the post of the month lol.  

I was just piggybacking off the first post that said "hope you didn't pull a muscle". Can't take to much credit for it. Guess a 1pt for a little  observational comedy.

 

[Nickster]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Probably. I agree that defenses weren't putting 8 in the box every down to stop JT, and I agree that it wouldn't be wise because he can get to your second level and be gone before you know it. But it's not like no one was stacking the box.

 

Putting 8 in the box and playing a lot of man is a way to get your backside burned v. JT. 

[Nickster]

4 minutes ago, w87r said:

I was just piggybacking off the first post that said "hope you didn't pull a muscle". Can't take to much credit for it. Guess a 1pt for a little  observational comedy.

 

 

I love it.  It's good clean fun.  But actually, I did about 10 minutes of warm up walking and about 15 minutes of hot yoga before my post, so I was able to pat myself up and down my back pain free. 

[Nickster]

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Probably. I agree that defenses weren't putting 8 in the box every down to stop JT, and I agree that it wouldn't be wise because he can get to your second level and be gone before you know it. But it's not like no one was stacking the box.

HEre is something I found in a debate of Henry 2020 v. Taylor 2021.  Niether faced a tremendouslly high rate of stacked boxes. 

 

"A genuine concern would be the amount of in-the-box defenders each player faced. After all, traditionally, if an RB meets eight or more men in the box, it is tougher to run successfully. Jonathan Taylor faced eight men boxes just 27.13% of the time so far in 2021, but Henry faced them 27.14% of the time. Henry did have more 8+ men in the box at a slightly higher rate, but not enough to say he was facing them far more than Taylor. Both backs did have success in these situations, with Henry in 2020 leading the league in yards, yards per carry, & TDs in that regard. Taylor is the rare back whose stats actually improved per carry vs. 8+ men in the box. The tactic doesn’t seem to stop either back so far in their careers."

 

See I think this would indicate that it's just too dangerous to get too close to the LOS v Taylor.  The risk isn't worth the reward.  His average going up is almost certainly a result of going for long runs on several occasions.  I would be pretty surprised if his runs of 2 yards or less didn't increase v. stacked boxes. It's just when he got past the 2nd level it was lights out. 

[Superman]

On 8/14/2022 at 11:23 AM, throwing BBZ said:

Last year HINES rushed 56 times 

  10 rushes averaging 13.4

   46 avg 3.0

    The "board has eye test memories". And that is 2 yd failure after 2 yard failure. The vet? that came in after Hines yesterday has true RB Skills. It looks different than Hines just crashing into the line.

 Hines an A pass protector?  I would like to see how many times he was asked to do that.  lol

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/

 

In 2021, on third and fourth down, with 3 or fewer yards to go, Hines had 5 rushing attempts, averaged 5.6 yards, and got 4 first downs. JT had 32 attempts, 3.6 yards, 22 first downs. (In the same situation, JT had three passing targets, Hines had two.) Hines only got eight total carries on 3rd/4th down last season, and averaged 5.25 yards/attempt.

 

This makes two things clear to me. First, the idea that Hines gets overused in short yardage isn't based on the facts. Second, the idea that Hines isn't effective in short yardage isn't based on the facts.

 

But people keep pushing these narratives, despite the fact that they're not borne out in the numbers.

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, Nickster said:

See I think this would indicate that it's just too dangerous to get too close to the LOS v Taylor.  The risk isn't worth the reward.  His average going up is almost certainly a result of going for long runs on several occasions.  I would be pretty surprised if his runs of 2 yards or less didn't increase v. stacked boxes. It's just when he got past the 2nd level it was lights out. 

 

I would expect that to be true for every back. If you wash the stats for red zone and goal line attempts, it might be less of a variance. Either way, stacked boxes generally are more effective at stopping the run. The anomaly in the numbers is going to be related to explosive plays.

 

In general, people think 'great QB = stacked boxes' but that hasn't been true for a long time. When you play the Titans, you know they want to run the ball, but you also know they're going to run play action and bootlegs because that's where Tannehill is most effective, so stack the box at your own risk. 

 

Edit: The biggest influence on light box / heavy box is offensive personnel, not how good your RB back is. If you want light boxes, use 3/4 WR sets. Doesn't really matter who the RB is, defenses will use sub packages to cover, and you can run all you want. Still have to block against a light box though.

[sb41champs]

17 hours ago, Nickster said:

https://www.espn.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/27649/why-indianapolis-colts-rb-jonathan-taylors-touches-and-production-are-likely-to-fall-this-season

 

“You don’t see teams that have this ground-and-pound run game win championships,” he said. “You just don’t. I’m sure it’s happened with one or two teams, but our best formula is to be balanced. I’m not saying he won’t lead the league in touches, because you never know how things are going to play out.”

 

been saying this for a while now.

 

We are loaded at the RB position and have significant talent at TE too!!

 

Provided everyone can stay healthy - our WR corps has the opportunity to show up and show out better than the pundits think they will.

 

I believe that the team can be very very balanced this season - and - that's something we haven't been able to do the past few seasons - for a variety of reasons.

[Nickster]

29 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I would expect that to be true for every back. If you wash the stats for red zone and goal line attempts, it might be less of a variance. Either way, stacked boxes generally are more effective at stopping the run. The anomaly in the numbers is going to be related to explosive plays.

 

In general, people think 'great QB = stacked boxes' but that hasn't been true for a long time. When you play the Titans, you know they want to run the ball, but you also know they're going to run play action and bootlegs because that's where Tannehill is most effective, so stack the box at your own risk. 

 

Edit: The biggest influence on light box / heavy box is offensive personnel, not how good your RB back is. If you want light boxes, use 3/4 WR sets. Doesn't really matter who the RB is, defenses will use sub packages to cover, and you can run all you want. Still have to block against a light box though.

 

All this to say that the Colts DO NOT run into an unusual high number of stacked boxes.  No more than league average, and this is just a gross misconception and the basis of faulty logic by many on this board. 

[Nickster]

42 minutes ago, sb41champs said:

We are loaded at the RB position and have significant talent at TE too!!

 

Provided everyone can stay healthy - our WR corps has the opportunity to show up and show out better than the pundits think they will.

 

I believe that the team can be very very balanced this season - and - that's something we haven't been able to do the past few seasons - for a variety of reasons.

We are talented at RB, but TE not so much.  I mean maybe for the developmental future, but we MO has not proved to be a guy who is going to produce a lot in the passing game (maybe it's that ole incompetent Frank's fault), and the other guys are projects.  

 

Maybe a year or two the TE position will be solid, but it's not right now.  Far from it in all probability since the retirement of Jack Doyle.

[a06cc]

If we make the playoff this season, that’s when we’ll rely on Taylor. We have to not only save him, but the rest of the team. Our bye-week again is later in the season again lol. Starting the season off fast is crucial.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Nickster said:

OOPS Edit:  This chart was from 2020, but assuming the numbers weren't drastically different then JT's 26.8% wasn't anything remarkable.   Surprised how hard it is to find that stats. 

 

I didn't say no one was stacking the box I just said it wasn't like that's what teams were doing v. him. So by this chart he was fairly well down the list of backs v. stacked boxes.  About Average would be my guess.  This chart shows at least 8 guys ahead of him.

 

I think that's what people think happened last year and it just didn't.  Not at any inordinately high rate any way. 

Am I understanding you correctly?

 

You think the defenses Taylor faced in 2021 when he led the entire NFL in rushing were roughly the same as in 2020 when he was a rookie who got off to a somewhat slow start for the first half if the season?  About the same?    I’d be beyond surprised if that were true. 

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Am I understanding you correctly?

 

You think the defenses Taylor faced in 2021 when he led the entire NFL in rushing were roughly the same as in 2020 when he was a rookie who got off to a somewhat slow start for the first half if the season?  About the same?    I’d be beyond surprised if that were true. 

No.  The chart is for 2020.  When I originally posted it I thought it was 2021.  What I am saying in the edit is that Taylor saw 26 or 27 Percent stacked boxes in non goal line situations in 2021.  But I assume that The league itself for all players didn’t have a major uptick or down tick from 2020 to 2021 then this chart would show that Taylor wasn’t in the top 10 or 12 in stacked boxes.

 

I am not comparing Taylor 2020 to Taylor 2021. I am since I made a mistake extrapolating Taylor’s 26 or 27 % in 2021 into the stats for the entire league in 2020.

[w87r]

16 minutes ago, Nickster said:

No.  The chart is for 2020.  When I originally posted it I thought it was 2021.  What I am saying in the edit is that Taylor saw 26 or 27 Percent stacked boxes in non goal line situations in 2021.  But I assume that The league itself for all players didn’t have a major uptick or down tick from 2020 to 2021 then this chart would show that Taylor wasn’t in the top 10 or 12 in stacked boxes.

 

I am not comparing Taylor 2020 to Taylor 2021. I am since I made a mistake extrapolating Taylor’s 26 or 27 % in 2021 into the stats for the entire league in 2020.

I liked because mistake admission. Always respect that.

 

 

Covered all angles in this thread now.

 

You were right and you were wrong.

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

I liked because mistake admission. Always respect that.

 

 

Covered all angles in this thread now.

 

You were right and you were wrong.

The only person that I struggle admitting mistakes to is my wife, Mrs. Nickster, because I’m going to hear about it for 2 or three more decades until I expire.

 

Come to think of it, there are several dudes on here that are kinda like that Eight Seven.

 

Maybe I should just employ the Eddie Murphy Raw technique on them too.  Wadn’t me.  But I saw it in one of your posts.  Wadn’t me.  
 

(If you’re  old enough that’s some funny feces right there)

[w87r]

14 minutes ago, Nickster said:

But I saw it in one of your posts.

Love me some stand up comedy. Watch pretty much something every day.(Patrice, Burr, Jeselnik, Chappell, Carlin, etc....)

 

Probably need to tap back into Eddie, been a while. Remember watching back in the day, probably few years after it debuted(probably shouldn't of been watching when I was). I am 42. 

 

 

As to the quoted part. Not sure what that means?

 

As a general practice, I try to not go around claiming to be right about anything after the fact, and have no problem admitting when I am wrong.

 

Not sure if that's what you are saying or what. I'm sure there are some post to the contrary, but like I said I try to avoid doing that. Something I try to focus on not doing.

[Four2itus]

10 minutes ago, w87r said:

As a general practice, I try to not go around claiming to be right about anything after the fact, and have no problem admitting when I am wrong.

Pssst........its in your signature......

[w87r]

4 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Pssst........its in your signature......

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

Love me some stand up comedy. Watch pretty much something every day.(Patrice, Burr, Jeselnik, Chappell, Carlin, etc....)

 

Probably need to tap back into Eddie, been a while. Remember watching back in the day, probably few years after it debuted(probably shouldn't of been watching when I was). I am 42. 

 

 

As to the quoted part. Not sure what that means?

 

As a general practice, I try to not go around claiming to be right about anything after the fact, and have no problem admitting when I am wrong.

 

Not sure if that's what you are saying or what. I'm sure there are some post to the contrary, but like I said I try to avoid doing that. Something I try to focus on not doing.

In Raw Eddie was talking about a dude that was busted for cheating walking out of the other woman’s house but the girlfriend is so smitten with him that she just believes anything he says, so chick catches dude and she confronts him and he says it wasn’t me.  She says but I saw you coming out of her apartment. He again says wasn’t me.  She says oh I knew it wasn’t you.  Point is just deny everything.  

 

but trust me Eight Seven.  It is way way way funnier when Eddie tells it.  Raw is pretty dadburn funny .  But disclaimer it’s before PC was a thing and is well . . .Raw. 

 

I was about 13 or 14 when it came out on cable must have been a year after it was out, so you’d a been about 5 or 6 then. Lol

 

IMO there has never been in the history of the Multiverse anyone Better at anything than Richard Pryor was at standup.  Best stuff is probably audio though his live at the sunset and other vids a great too.

 

Another must see comedy special is Robin Williams live at the Met.

[Nickster]

On 8/14/2022 at 1:23 PM, throwing BBZ said:

 

  Last year HINES rushed 56 times 

  10 rushes averaging 13.4

   46 avg 3.0

    The "board has eye test memories". And that is 2 yd failure after 2 yard failure. The vet? that came in after Hines yesterday has true RB Skills. It looks different than Hines just crashing into the line.

 Hines an A pass protector?  I would like to see how many times he was asked to do that.  lo

 

So you are taking out 18 % of Hines best runs and coming up with 3.0 ypc on the rest of his runs. Ok fine.

 

it would take too long to compile Taylors top 18 % of his runs because he has 332 carries. But I ran a little arithmetic problem by simply taking out the best run he had each game which is only 5 % of his carries and these aren’t even his 17 best runs overall just the best in each individual game.  You simply take out these 17 runs 5 % and JTs Ypc is down to 3.9 ypc.  My guess is if You actually eliminated JTs best 60 runs overall which is 18% you’d be down to or below 3.0.

 

I simply applied your equation, and or principal,with some extrapolation so I didn’t have to try to find the 60 best carries.  So Taylor sucks running too right?  by YOUR logic.  See how that works?

 

 

[w87r]

3 hours ago, Nickster said:

In Raw Eddie was talking about a dude that was busted for cheating walking out of the other woman’s house but the girlfriend is so smitten with him that she just believes anything he says, so chick catches dude and she confronts him and he says it wasn’t me.  She says but I saw you coming out of her apartment. He again says wasn’t me.  She says oh I knew it wasn’t you.  Point is just deny everything.  

 

but trust me Eight Seven.  It is way way way funnier when Eddie tells it.  Raw is pretty dadburn funny .  But disclaimer it’s before PC was a thing and is well . . .Raw. 

 

I was about 13 or 14 when it came out on cable must have been a year after it was out, so you’d a been about 5 or 6 then. Lol

 

IMO there has never been in the history of the Multiverse anyone Better at anything than Richard Pryor was at standup.  Best stuff is probably audio though his live at the sunset and other vids a great too.

 

Another must see comedy special is Robin Williams live at the Met.

Love Prior and Williams as well.

 

I am familiar with that Raw clip. Yeah it came out when I was like 6 or 7.  It is very Raw. Eddie didn't play games.

 

But I must still be missing something as I don't know what that has to do with anything that you have seen in my post.?

 

As stated, I make a concerted effort to not claim to of been right about something after the fact and own up to my mistakes. Definitely am not going around saying it wasn't me, if I get caught being wrong.?

 

Anyway, like I said, I am sure I still have some post that slip through that seem way. Even with making an effort to not do so.

 

Still you have "Wasn't me" surrounding the statement  "But I saw it in one of your post"

 

So trying to figure out how to interpret that.

1. You saw me saying it wasn't me?

2. You saw me owning up to my mistakes?

3. You saw me post about respecting people more when they own their mistakes, instead of coming back after the fact claiming to be right?(which I know I have said on here multiple times)

 

Idk? Feeling like an * that it's had to be explained to me twice already(42itus and you) and will need a third attempt. Plus it's relevance to my signature? Lol. Damn it's only 3 in the morning. Need to crash back out for a few.

 

3's the magic number. 3 ways to interpret, 3 explanations and 3am.

 

 

I do lke the spelled out "eight seven", if I must say.

[Nickster]

15 hours ago, Superman said:

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/

 

In 2021, on third and fourth down, with 3 or fewer yards to go, Hines had 5 rushing attempts, averaged 5.6 yards, and got 4 first downs. JT had 32 attempts, 3.6 yards, 22 first downs. (In the same situation, JT had three passing targets, Hines had two.) Hines only got eight total carries on 3rd/4th down last season, and averaged 5.25 yards/attempt.

 

This makes two things clear to me. First, the idea that Hines gets overused in short yardage isn't based on the facts. Second, the idea that Hines isn't effective in short yardage isn't based on the facts.

 

But people keep pushing these narratives, despite the fact that they're not borne out in the numbers.

This is another one of the commonly held myths on this MB, mainly used to criticize Reich.

[Nickster]

4 hours ago, w87r said:

Love Prior and Williams as well.

 

I am familiar with that Raw clip. Yeah it came out when I was like 6 or 7.  It is very Raw. Eddie didn't play games.

 

But I must still be missing something as I don't know what that has to do with anything that you have seen in my post.?

 

As stated, I make a concerted effort to not claim to of been right about something after the fact and own up to my mistakes. Definitely am not going around saying it wasn't me, if I get caught being wrong.?

 

Anyway, like I said, I am sure I still have some post that slip through that seem way. Even with making an effort to not do so.

 

Still you have "Wasn't me" surrounding the statement  "But I saw it in one of your post"

 

So trying to figure out how to interpret that.

1. You saw me saying it wasn't me?

2. You saw me owning up to my mistakes?

3. You saw me post about respecting people more when they own their mistakes, instead of coming back after the fact claiming to be right?(which I know I have said on here multiple times)

 

Idk? Feeling like an * that it's had to be explained to me twice already(42itus and you) and will need a third attempt. Plus it's relevance to my signature? Lol. Damn it's only 3 in the morning. Need to crash back out for a few.

 

3's the magic number. 3 ways to interpret, 3 explanations and 3am.

 

 

I do lke the spelled out "eight seven", if I must say.

No I am not talking about you at all Eight Seven.  (I hear that like Snoop Dog without the 1.   Like.  187 on an undercover cop )
 

The limp, impotent joke was my obviously a cryptically poor attempt at humor for other posters who constantly remember and bring up posts about my skepticism about a running back

 into just about every discussion.  So I was saying like my wife it just keeps getting brought up.  (Not by you).  Sooo I should just be like Eddies character and flat out deny, even though they metaphorically saw me coming out of the other woman’s house, ie. Stuff I said on this message board.  
 

IN ANY EVENT, I made a failed attempt at joking with you not about you.  Lol.   The comedy fail is mine all mine.

[w87r]

31 minutes ago, Nickster said:

No I am not talking about you at all Eight Seven.  (I hear that like Snoop Dog without the 1.   Like.  187 on an undercover cop )
 

The limp, impotent joke was my obviously a cryptically poor attempt at humor for other posters who constantly remember and bring up posts about my skepticism about a running back

 into just about every discussion.  So I was saying like my wife it just keeps getting brought up.  (Not by you).  Sooo I should just be like Eddies character and flat out deny, even though they metaphorically saw me coming out of the other woman’s house, ie. Stuff I said on this message board.  
 

IN ANY EVENT, I made a failed attempt at joking with you not about you.  Lol.   The comedy fail is mine all mine.

I got you now.

 

When you said "I saw it in one of your post", that was other posters saying that to you. With your Eddie Murphy response surrounding it.

 

 

3rd times a charm. Definitely makes more sense now.

 

My comprehension on that was less than stellar.

[w87r]

16 hours ago, Superman said:

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/

 

In 2021, on third and fourth down, with 3 or fewer yards to go, Hines had 5 rushing attempts, averaged 5.6 yards, and got 4 first downs. JT had 32 attempts, 3.6 yards, 22 first downs. (In the same situation, JT had three passing targets, Hines had two.) Hines only got eight total carries on 3rd/4th down last season, and averaged 5.25 yards/attempt.

 

This makes two things clear to me. First, the idea that Hines gets overused in short yardage isn't based on the facts. Second, the idea that Hines isn't effective in short yardage isn't based on the facts.

 

But people keep pushing these narratives, despite the fact that they're not borne out in the numbers.

These are nice stats. Although they don't say what the runs were.(inside, outside, power, draw)

 

I think in general, posters are not complaining about Hines over use in short yardage situations. Clearly the stats don't back that up.

 

There was people complaining about it in the preseason game, including myself, though. Would of just been nice to see the other backs get an opportunity in the preseason game. Putting Hines at more risk, and at his salary it just wasn't necessary. 

 

I think most posters understand that come regular season those carries(short yardage) will go to Taylor at the much higher percentage.

 

Its the 1st and 10, 2nd and long power rushes that seem to be shut down to frequently and what seems to be not very successful.

 

So again while those stats are nice, they don't address the main gripe. Hines power runs up the middle. I'm sure there is someone complaining about Hines carries on "short yardage" situations. Not what the complaint is about, and again, those stats(short yardage) didn't classify what the runs were used in those situations.

 

 

Here's a few other stats:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/nyheim-hines/

 

56 carries total:

67.9%(38 carries) @ 5.67ypc against 6 man defensive fronts. (216yds out of 276yds)

23.2%(13 carries) @ 3.7ypc against 7 man fronts (49yds out of 276)

8.9%(5 carries) @ 2.2ypc against stacked boxes (11yds out of 276yds)

 

So outside of sub defensive packages, Hines had 18 carries for 60yds (3.3yds per carry)

 

Shotgun carries - 58.9%(33)

Under center carries - 41.1%(23)

Stuffed Runs 14.3% 1 in 7(not 100% sure on parameters of this stat) that is 8 stuffed runs out of 56.

 

 

Again these stats aren't perfect either but one can come to the hypotheses that 33 carries came out of the shotgun, which weren't very many power runs. Either misdirection or draws. Which is where Hines usually will have his highest % of success.

 

That leaves us with 23 carries from under center. Not a lot by any means, but one can come to the hypotheses again that this is where Hines struggles the most and more power runs are implemented here.

[Myles]

9 minutes ago, w87r said:

These are nice stats. Although they don't say what the runs were.(inside, outside, power, draw)

 

I think in general, posters are not complaining about Hines over use in short yardage situations. Clearly the stats don't back that up.

 

There was people complaining about it in the preseason game, including myself, though. Would of just been nice to see the other backs get an opportunity in the preseason game. Putting Hines at more risk, and at his salary it just wasn't necessary. 

 

I think most posters understand that come regular season those carries(short yardage) will go to Taylor at the much higher percentage.

 

Its the 1st and 10, 2nd and long power rushes that seem to be shut down to frequently and what seems to be not very successful.

 

So again while those stats are nice, they don't address the main gripe. Hines power runs up the middle. I'm sure there is someone complaining about Hines carries on "short yardage" situations. Not what the complaint is about, and again, those stats(short yardage) didn't classify what the runs were used in those situations.

 

 

Here's a few other stats:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/nyheim-hines/

 

56 carries total:

67.9%(38 carries) @ 5.67ypc against 6 man defensive fronts. (216yds out of 276yds)

23.2%(13 carries) @ 3.7ypc against 7 man fronts (49yds out of 276)

8.9%(5 carries) @ 2.2ypc against stacked boxes (11yds out of 276yds)

 

So outside of sub defensive packages, Hines had 18 carries for 60yds (3.3yds per carry)

 

Shotgun carries - 58.9%(33)

Under center carries - 41.1%(23)

Stuffed Runs 14.3% 1 in 7(not 100% sure on parameters of this stat) that is 8 stuffed runs out of 56.

 

 

Again these stats aren't perfect either but one can come to the hypotheses that 33 carries came out of the shotgun, which weren't very many power runs. Either misdirection or draws. Which is where Hines usually will have his highest % of success.

 

That leaves us with 23 carries from under center. Not a lot by any means, but one can come to the hypotheses again that this is where Hines struggles the most and more power runs are implemented here.

For me the gripe is based off o f3-4 times last season when it was 3rd and short (1-3 yards) and the defense had the box stuffed.  The play was Hines up the gut and they stopped him each time.  I'm too lazy to look up the games but I remember seeing it and cringing.  

[w87r]

9 minutes ago, Myles said:

For me the gripe is based off o f3-4 times last season when it was 3rd and short (1-3 yards) and the defense had the box stuffed.  The play was Hines up the gut and they stopped him each time.  I'm too lazy to look up the games but I remember seeing it and cringing.  

Then you are the outlier here, because as Superman stats show, Hines only had 5 such carries last year and averaged over 5yds per carry in those attempts and got 4 1st downs.

 

So I guess we found my "someone". Lol.

 

 

He did run into 5 stacked boxes, but by 2.2ypc vs 5.6ypc(short yardage attempts), doesn't seem that any of those were in the 3rd/4th and short scenario.

 

Well probably 1 of the 5 was, as a 1st down wasn't picked up.