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Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs

EastStreet

By EastStreet
in Colts Football

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Posted
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12 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

I can't imagine the Dolphins beating the Titans AND the Patriots

 

Pats play bad done in Miami. They will be fighting to keep their playoff spot though. I would think Miami won’t win both. That defense can be pretty good and give Titans fits.

 

Gosh we are actually ok duh. I am so dumb. Because pats and dolphins play each other. So one  will get another loss. 
 

Raiders game is so big.

 

Raiders and Chargers play each other too.

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18 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Nah. That game gets played at same time as ours I believe so let Titans win. Of course if we win yesh Titans loss would be great but we can’t afford it if we lose.

You are way too scared of the dolphins.  They aren’t really a factor in keeping the Colts out of the playoffs.  The Colts come out a head of them in every tie breaker between them.  They only way they can hurt the Colts playoff chances is if they win out and the Colts lose out and if the Colts lose to the Raiders and Jags they have bigger problems.

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3 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

You are way too scared of the dolphins.  They aren’t really a factor in keeping the Colts out of the playoffs.  The Colts come out a head of them in every tie breaker between them.  They only way they can hurt the Colts playoff chances is if they win out and the Colts lose out and if the Colts lose to the Raiders and Jags they have bigger problems.

I am not worried anymore once I seen dolphins and pats play and raiders and Chargers play.  We are in good shape even right a loss Sunday. Just puts pressure on  in Jacksonville where weird things happen.

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16 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Wouldnt it be funny if dolphins eliminated pats last game of season.

 

If Ravens keep losing we should be ok. 

The Ravens and Raiders tie break is the only thing that keeps the Colts out of the playoffs at this point, assuming the Colts beat at least Jacksonville.  So yes cheer against the raiders and ravens.

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1 minute ago, Wentzszn said:

I am not worried anymore once I seen dolphins and pats play and raiders and Chargers play.  We are in good shape even right a loss Sunday. Just puts pressure on  in Jacksonville where weird things happen.

I agree the Colts recent track record in Jacksonville is awful but if you have to beat a team to get in the last week and you can’t beat the worst team in the league, even on the road, you don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.

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4 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I agree the Colts recent track record in Jacksonville is awful but if you have to beat a team to get in the last week and you can’t beat the worst team in the league, even on the road, you don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.

James Robinson is out for season so that helps. 
 

The only thing bad that could happen is lose to raiders then we lose Wentz for Jaguars.  Which could be a possibility.

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tvturner Team Captain

tvturner

Posted
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The Dolphins winning streak consists of:

 

5 wins against: the Jets (x2), the Texans, the Panthers, the Giants, and the Saints

1 win against: the Ravens

They haven't really played any good teams in that stretch

 

And the other win they have is against the struggling Patriots at the start of the season

 

I don't have too much faith in them knocking off New England or Tennessee 

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12 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

We just need to win Sunday. Raiders are a gritty bunch. Then we can relax.

They are also very undisciplined and prone to mistakes and the Colts feast on those things.  I am more worried about Covid taking out key players than I am the Raiders to be honest.  If the Colts can get some guys back and not lose Buckner, Wentz, and Taylor I think they win this game comfortably.

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8 minutes ago, tvturner said:

Ehlinger can beat Jacksonville 

If he has Taylor and the other guys.  IE if it’s just Wentz out I could see it but if it’s Wentz, Taylor, Pittman, etc he would have a hard time.  Honestly the defense would probably have to stop them and give Sam a short field or something then and Sam would have to play mistake free.  Let’s just hope we don’t have to find out.

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9 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

We just need to win Sunday. Raiders are a gritty bunch. Then we can relax.

If we win Sunday we are in so what I would do is just put every one in a bubble until the playoffs start lol. The game against the Jags won't mean anything. It really doesn't matter what seed we get IMO 5, 6, or 7. All the same. I feel like we can beat anyone if healthy so even we are a #7 it is all good to me.

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26 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If we win Sunday we are in so what I would do is just put every one in a bubble until the playoffs start lol. The game against the Jags won't mean anything. It really doesn't matter what seed we get IMO 5, 6, or 7. All the same. I feel like we can beat anyone if healthy so even we are a #7 it is all good to me.

If we win Sunday I hope  Wentz gets covid the next day.  You are right about putting everyone in a bubble. Keep all of them home from practice before the jags game except backups. 

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coltsva Team Captain

coltsva

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According to my research on playoff machine calculator, if the Colts win this Sunday and lose to Jacksonville, the only way they drop to the 7th seed is with all of the following happening:

 

Ravens beat Rams AND Steelers

Bills beat Falcons AND Jets

Pats beat Jags AND Dolphins

Bengals WIN ONE vs Chiefs or Browns

 

Also, if Colts win this week and Ravens lose, and either Bills or Pats lose, I believe Colts would be at worst 5th seed even with a loss in Jacksonville. If you add in a Titans win over Dolphins, the Colts would be locked into the 5th spot heading into week 18. 

 

As always, this is 95%, as I could have missed a scenario.

 

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1 minute ago, coltsva said:

According to my research on playoff machine calculator, if the Colts win this Sunday and lose to Jacksonville, the only way they drop to the 7th seed is with all of the following happening:

 

Ravens beat Rams AND Steelers

Bills beat Falcons AND Jets

Pats beat Jags AND Dolphins

Bengals WIN ONE vs Chiefs or Browns

 

Also, if Colts win this week and Ravens lose, and either Bills or Pats lose, I believe Colts would be locked into 5th seed even with a loss in Jacksonville. If you add in a Titans win over Dolphins, the Colts would be locked into the 5th spot heading into week 18. 

 

As always, this is 95%, as I could have missed a scenario.

 

I expect Rams to beat ravens which will help colts a ton where they don’t have to worry about them.  Pats and bills have a easy game this week so both will probably win. Still have to worry about Steelers a little. Just win this weekend. Praying we get to get players back and these covid rules change today.

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coltsva

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5 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I expect Rams to beat ravens which will help colts a ton where they don’t have to worry about them.  Pats and bills have a easy game this week so both will probably win. Still have to worry about Steelers a little. Just win this weekend. Praying we get to get players back and these covid rules change today.

Best Steelers can do is 9-7-1, so you can stop worrying. 

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16 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am sure she meant Covid with asymptomatic symptoms where he  isn't sick. Once a player tests positive they can't be tested again for 90 days. She didn't word it right. He would be ok for the playoffs is where is she is going with it.  

Exactly. With how all these players have had very mild symptoms or no symptoms it sure would be nice if he took his test and found out he was positive without even knowing.  If he went on today and the nfl ruled change toddy or tomorrow he would even be able to play Sunday.

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4 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I was just looking at the playoff picture. Right now it looks like we would play the Bills. I thought it was Bengals. I expect Bengals to end up that 4 though. Looks like Bills and Pats are on a collision course to play WC weekend.

Bills should end up 11-6, they have the Falcons and Jets at home to end the season. They will end up the 3 seed IMO. Titans are actually going to end up the #2 seed because they have the tiebreaker over the Bills. I wouldn't mind ending up #7 so we can play them haha . If we beat the Raiders we are in, we could rest everyone at Jacks and drop that one and maybe be a #7?? Being a #5 would be fine as well because that will draw whoever wins the North = probably Cincy but it could be any of those teams.

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Bills should end up 11-6, they have the Falcons and Jets at home to end the season. They will end up the 3 seed IMO. Titans are actually going to end up the #2 seed because they have the tiebreaker over the Bills. I wouldn't mind ending up #7 so we can play them haha . If we beat the Raiders we are in, we could rest everyone at Jacks and drop that one and maybe be a #7?? Being a #5 would be fine as well because that will draw whoever wins the North = probably Cincy but it could be any of those teams.

I think with Bengals playing KC there is a good chance they do drop to 4. That should be fun because so many colt fans can make the short trip. If Bengals lose to KC that opens door for browns or Steelers. 
 

I done know if anyone saw the video of Lamar practicing yesterday. He was limping like crazy. Then he didn’t practice today. He never should of been out there. 

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5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Bills should end up 11-6, they have the Falcons and Jets at home to end the season. They will end up the 3 seed IMO. Titans are actually going to end up the #2 seed because they have the tiebreaker over the Bills. I wouldn't mind ending up #7 so we can play them haha . If we beat the Raiders we are in, we could rest everyone at Jacks and drop that one and maybe be a #7?? Being a #5 would be fine as well because that will draw whoever wins the North = probably Cincy but it could be any of those teams.

Doubt they will do that.  My guess is they will play for the highest seed they can get on the off chance they could get a home game later in the playoffs.  I also think Frank likes how his guys are playing and isn’t going to want to take a week off to mess with that.

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5 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Does 10-7 get the Colts in? 

Depends.  If they beat the Raiders they are in no matter what.  If they lose to the Raiders but beat the Jags more than likely.  There is a scenario where if the Raiders and Ravens win out and end up in a three way tie with the Colts at 10-7 the Colts are out.

 

So if the Colts lose to the Raiders cheer for the Rams this weekend.  If the Rams beat the Ravens this week the Colts are in win and you are in mood vs the Jags in week 18 even with a Raiders loss Sunday.

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I think I saw something this that we will be locked into the 5 seed if we win and pats lose. I doubt that will happen. I am sure they will go for the win against jax just to make sure they get the 5 seed. With the parity in the AFC really need that 5 seed.

 

Chances are we play Bills or Bengals. I don’t know which one I want more. Probably Bengals. But I won’t cry if Titans falter and we get them.

 

We might see Taylor get a nice rest in jax if we win Sunday. Mack might get a good workload.

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