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FA Mock Draft with Surprise Trade


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OTC $64.887 million Cap Room as of 02/03

 

Restructured Contracts

Ryan Kelly – Split his Roster bonus in 2022 in half 2.325m (Colts save 8.502m) 990k base, 2.833m Prorated bonus, 2.325 roster bonus and 6.148m Cap Number

 

Grover Stewart – Split his 1.34m Roster Bonus in 2021 to 670k (Colts save 3.56m) 990k base, 3.03m prorated bonus a 670k roster bonus Cap Number 4.690m

 

Jack Doyle – Split his 750k Roster Bonus to 375k (Colts saved 1.825m) 1.075 base, 2.575 prorated bonus, 375k roster bonus Cap Number 4.025m

 

Trade – CB Kenny Moore II to LV Raiders for RDE Maxx Crosby

Gain 5.74m for Moore.  Assuming with Crosby take over his rookie contract scheduled to be a 2023 FA 2021 Cap 1.045m and 2022 Cap 1.160m

 

Retired

Rivers

AC

 

FA Signings

QB Jameis Winston 1 year / 5m

LT Trent Williams 4-year / 18m, 20m plus 6m roster bonus, 23m plus 6m roster bonus, 25m 

LCB Troy Hill 2 year/ $14m, 16m plus 6m roster bonus

FS Marcus Williams – 5 yr / 8m+, 10m plus 6m roster bonus, 12, 14, 16m

RCB Artie Burns (Bears) 2 year / prove-it deal $1.5m, 3m plus incentives.  2017 had a PFF grade of 70.5

LT Roderick Johnson 4-year / 2m plus, 2.5m, 2m, 3m, 3.5m

SS Deon Bush (Bears) 2 year / 1.035m, 1.75m

LDE Morgan Fox (Rams) 3 year / 5m plus 2m roster bonus, 6m, 7m

Mike Hilton 2 year / 6m, 8m

 

Colts FA’s lost

Brissett

Houston

Autry

Hooker

Clark

Wilson

Carrie

Wilson

Carrie

Green

Burton

Walker JR

Mack

Odum

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

Hilton 1 / 8m

Rhodes 2 / 7m, 9m

Hunt 2 / 990k, 1.035m

Muhammad 3 / 3m, 4m, 5m

 

Restricted Free Agents

Stallworth 1 / 750 k * updated colts already extended

Dulin 2 / 1m STP *update Colts already extended

MAC UDFA – Original Tender 2.24m

Pascal RFA 2nd Round tender 3.422m

Smith ERFA 1 / 850 k STP

 

2021 Cap Room 7.449m

 

2021 Draft Needs

QB, WR, TE, MLB, RB, SS

 

R1 TE Pat Freiemuth

R2 MLB Chaz Surratt

R3 RB Trey Sermon

R4 SS Divine Deablo

R5 LDE Victor Dimukeje

R6 LB Charles Snowden – best available WR

R7 OT Kayode Awosika

 

 

QB

Jameis Winston

Jacob Eason

 

RB

Jonathan Taylor

Trey Sermon

Nyheim Hines

Jordan Wilkins

 

WR

T.Y. Hilton

Ashton Dulin

Parris Campbell

 

WR

Michael Pittman Jr.

Dezmon Patmon

Quartney Davis

 

WR

Zach Pascal

DeMichael Harris

J.J. Nelson

 

TE

Jack Doyle

Pat Freiemuth

Mo Alie-Cox

Noah Togiai

 

LT

Trent Williams

Roderick Johnson

 

LG

Quenton Nelson

Joey Hunt

 

C

Ryan Kelly

Danny Pinter

 

RG

Mark Glowinski

Jake Eldrenkamp

 

RT

Branden Smith

Will Holden

Kayode Awosika

 

LDE

Morgan Fox

Ben Banogu

Victor Dimukeje

 

LDT

DeForest Buckner

Tyquan Lewis

 

RDT

Grover Stewart

Taylor Stallworth

 

RDE

Al-Quadin Muhammad

Maxx Crosby

Kemoko Turay

 

WLB

Darius Leonard

Matthew Adams

 

MLB

Chaz Surratt

Zaire Franklin

Jordan Glasgow

 

SLB

Bobby Okereke

Charles Snowden

E.J. Speed

 

LCB

Troy Hill

Rock Ya-Sin

Mike Hilton

Isaiah Rodgers

 

SS

Khari Willis

Divine Deablo

Deon Bush

 

FS

Marcus Williams

Julian Blackmon

Ibraheim Campbell

 

RCB

Xavier Rhodes

Artie Burns

Marvell Tell III

Tremon Smith

 

Winston a high risk/reward player for a low cost QB shouldn't feel pressured and have plenty of time with our OL.  Hoping time spent learning from Brees and Reich's own development Winston catches on.  If not we have a very good defense to keep us in the game.  With our projected 2021 Cap Space and projected movements the Colts should be heavily active in Free Agency.

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Update*  Instead of Hilton signed for 1 year better to sign WR Curtis Samuel 4 years / 8m, 10m (3m base, 2m ProBo, 5m RB,  8M Guaranteed), 13m, 14m, 15m, 

 

Can ignore signing SS Deon Bush.  Play around with the numbers and modify some yearly Roster Bonuses deferred to 2022 / 2023 but able to get 2021 Cap Room to ~7.059m for the Draft.

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1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

Crosby would be a great get...but not at the expense of the Colts best CB and a team leader. Not really sure how that trade helps either team...I highly doubt LV would even do that anyways.

 

The Raiders have a lot of young DEs on roster and they wanted to replace Lamarcus Joyner before.  Obviously we target Mike as a replacement first and then offer a trade.  Win-win deal without  trading picks.  Save cap space and sign and young upcoming DE on his rookie contract and not worry about paying him until 2024 when we open up more cap space.

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Thanks for posting, it fills some holes.

 

A couple of thoughts

 

A pickup of Winston if the other choices are off the table, is a safe move.

He has holes but he is low risk. He has started in the NFL. He could compete with Eason immediately

 

Play the best player

 

You have a large number of FA leaving and a large number of FAs coming in. I would probably lean on keeping a bit more of our own, vs bringing in other folks.

 

The first 3 draft choices are positions I would probably not focus on as early

 

TE, MLB, RB are not spots I would be looking at so soon

 

We really need Pass Rush, and another OL to develop

 

Thanks.... always fun to read different opinions

 

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I would not take a TE with round 1.  I'd rather keep Moore, not trade for Crosby, and draft Jaelen Phillipps at 21. 

 

Trade for, or sign Ertz. 

 

I think we go lighter at MLB than we have been, and I think we play nickel more.  I say draft Diablo, who is a big SS and not really a passing game S, and make him the Mike. 

 

That frees up the second round pick to go G/C depth.  Glow will be rolling off at 2021 and Kelly seems to have injury issues.

 

3rd round for DL, Autry's successor, since I doubt Lewis gets resigned after 2021.

 

Rounds 5, 6, and 7 I would draft Stevie Scott, RB from IU. 

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53 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Thanks for posting, it fills some holes.

 

A couple of thoughts

 

A pickup of Winston if the other choices are off the table, is a safe move.

He has holes but he is low risk. He has started in the NFL. He could compete with Eason immediately

 

Play the best player

 

You have a large number of FA leaving and a large number of FAs coming in. I would probably lean on keeping a bit more of our own, vs bringing in other folks.

 

The first 3 draft choices are positions I would probably not focus on as early

 

TE, MLB, RB are not spots I would be looking at so soon

 

We really need Pass Rush, and another OL to develop

 

Thanks.... always fun to read different opinions

 

Winston could probably be acquired for cheaper.  Not many QBs that have thrown for 5000+ yards in the NFL.  Hoping he has learned from one of the best QBs to every play the game in Brees.  Also think of Reich as a QB whisperer. 
 

Burton is gone and we need a TE.  Pat is compared to Gronk and if he plays anything like it might be the missing piece we needed.  Say Pat is very good at both run/pass blocking and can catch.  
 

With no Walker we have a big need for a starting MLB.  Agree with the DE additions still some uncertainty with Ben to me he still unproven. Muhammad and Crosby should be a strong combo.  Kind of like the Eagles team.  Plenty of youth and ends to rotate often kept them fresh and got pressure on the QB.  Hoping Buckner takes off some pressure so Fox can thrive.  Fox will probably need to lose 15-20 lbs but think he can handle a bigger snap count.
 

Taylor is our 1k rusher and Hines is a solid mixture of RB but also a trusted WR.  Think we look another quality back who can get 600-700 yards rushing.  Thinking Wilkins will probably hit the FA in 2022.  
 

Our OTs and roster depth is very deep with the addition of Roderick and Williams.  Rookie Awosika can play both tackle spots and Holden will probably become a FA in 2022.  Hunt, Pinter and Eldrenkamp are capable backups.  With Williams see it more a financial savings for the next 4-5 years.  Long enough to see what this loaded draft class of OTs can prove and get an idea who might be available in FA.  Normally one player who wants to get paid and the timing should work out well in our favor.

 

Still a few missing pieces but in 2022 we’re back to possibly looking at a QB or not.  Hoping Winston throws for 30:15 TD:Int and 4K yards.  Agree LDE might be an issue.  Thinking need to replace Doyle at some point.  Hoping Burns returns healthy and takes over for Rhodes later.  Wide receivers could use help and so could the cornerbacks.  

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6 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I would not take a TE with round 1.  I'd rather keep Moore, not trade for Crosby, and draft Jaelen Phillipps at 21. 

 

Trade for, or sign Ertz. 

 

I think we go lighter at MLB than we have been, and I think we play nickel more.  I say draft Diablo, who is a big SS and not really a passing game S, and make him the Mike. 

 

That frees up the second round pick to go G/C depth.  Glow will be rolling off at 2021 and Kelly seems to have injury issues.

 

3rd round for DL, Autry's successor, since I doubt Lewis gets resigned after 2021.

 

Rounds 5, 6, and 7 I would draft Stevie Scott, RB from IU. 

At some point we got to go young with our TEs and find capable blocking and receiving ones.  Pat would qualify as a need.  Also a big fan of Phillips.  So many different possibilities and decision making trees that the team could chose as a path forward.  Just been fun playing with the OTC calculator and see what can be done.  Even my boss here in Ohio rolled his eyes when I said take Sermon in the 3rd.  We will have one of the best OL to run the ball might as well take advantage of the design.  

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Just now, OhioColt said:

At some point we got to go young with our TEs and find capable blocking and receiving ones.  Pat would qualify as a need.  Also a big fan of Phillips.  So many different possibilities and decision making trees that the team could chose as a path forward.  Just been fun playing with the OTC calculator and see what can be done.  Even my boss here in Ohio rolled his eyes when I said take Sermon in the 3rd.  We will have one of the best OL to run the ball might as well take advantage of the design.  

I think we need more of a vertical TE.  Young Mo can take over for Doyle.  Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss is more of the vertical TE we need, and he could be taken in the 3rd or 4th instead of round 1, if you didn't want Ertz.  Thing is, Ertz could probably be had for a 3rd or 4th, and he's only 30/31.

 

Like to have Diablo on the team.  He is a bigger more athletic Willis, IMO.  Not a real cover guy that I think would be hard to call a pure S.

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Artie Burns, his 2017 PFF means nothing to me. He was constantly burned while playing CB for the Steelers, a big part of their outside pass coverage suffering. I want no part of him. Trent Williams, Troy Hill and Deon Bush are excellent players to get, you did well there. The trade - I would rather get a pass rusher in free agency without ponying up one of the best slot CBs in the entire league.

 

If we are pursuing Zach Ertz, TE draft pick is a waste. I do not see Ballard pulling the trigger on anything other than a defensive player or OL in round 1, that has been his ammo, IMO. RBs are dime a dozen, a Day 3 pick would suffice, IMO, if we are replacing Wilkins eventually. At that rate, I might as well bring Mack back for a 1 year prove it deal.

 

MLB, I can see that happening because that is an important position for the style of D we play. 

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Respectfully, this is all over the place. Trading Moore (who up to this point has been a way better player) for Crosby is an unbalanced trade.

 

Also Im not sure what the obsession with safeties is. You have us signing two in FA and then drafting one early. That’s too much to commit towards that position.

 

Also a TE in round 1? I don’t get it

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2 hours ago, OhioColt said:

Winston could probably be acquired for cheaper.  Not many QBs that have thrown for 5000+ yards in the NFL.  Hoping he has learned from one of the best QBs to every play the game in Brees.  Also think of Reich as a QB whisperer. 
 

I looked at it and in the history of the NFL, there were only two other QBs that got to 5100 yards.....

 

People forget the 30 tds and the 5100 yards, and only focus on the INTs

 

His time with Brees / Sean Payton should have been a great opportunity to learn

 

Reich / could also assist 

 

You HAVE to Vet the kid

 

IMHO, you have him visit INDY, run him through some videos and ask him what he sees from the video

(Sort of like Gruden's approach) See if he "gets it"

 

Talk to Brees and others and see how he is in the locker room. Has he truly grown up?

(He supposedly has turned the corner emotionally) 

 

See if he is "cocky' in the discussions .

 

If he comes in humble. and  shows improvement in the mental aspects of the game, he would be a decent option

 

He has a very strong arm, is very mobile.....  You cant teach that If he halved his INTs he would have been in the pro bowl

 

There are quite a few folks that say, just let Eason try.....  I AGREE (But i dont think he is ready)

 

Let Eason COMPETE with Winston.  The loser becomes the backup. The winner of the competition is the starter.

 

Eason was a round 2 rated QB, before the draft, and reports started to come out that he did didnt put the work in, and it hurt his position

 

It is NOT and endless supply of QB options......  

 

Choice 1 - Stafford - GONE

 

Choice 2 - Trade for Other Vet

 

Who is this vet and how much do they cost?  After seeing Stafford go, and knowing Dak, will get franchised,  Wentz and Ryan have ENORMOUS cap hits to trade, Watson is a pipe dream....

 

Who is the vet option that we can get? I think some of these guys might be the best solution, but they are in the fantasy land of picks

 

Choice 3 - Draft a QB 

 

This is the best one for me for the long run.... but there are TWELVE folks with better draft picks in front of us that are looking for a QB..... JUST LIKE US

 

Unless one of the top 4 slide out to 13...  (I dont see it)

 

People are saying Mac Jones has shown at senior bowl to be considered a MID first round pick 

 

NE will GRAB him at 15 IMHO

 

If Carolina wants to trade a first round pick 9th , that weights at our 1st AND our 2nd round pick

 

Unless the magical happens, this might not be the year that we get a QB in the draft that can start this year

 

Choice 4 - Bring in a VET to play this year

 

Most of the choices are PUTRID.

 

I dont want to see Fitzpatrick as a Colt....

 

I would rather let Eason and someone like Winston battle it out. 

 

The odds are NEITHER are the long term solution, but without giving it a chance

 

So... my overall point is..... The choices are actually REALISTICALLY few......Winston is a low risk option when the list of options are SHORT 

 

 

Quote

With no Walker we have a big need for a starting MLB.  Agree with the DE additions still some uncertainty with Ben to me he still unproven. Muhammad and Crosby should be a strong combo.  Kind of like the Eagles team.  Plenty of youth and ends to rotate often kept them fresh and got pressure on the QB.  Hoping Buckner takes off some pressure so Fox can thrive.  Fox will probably need to lose 15-20 lbs but think he can handle a bigger snap count.

 

 

 

I dont know, he has been getting less and less reps, as we have 2 OTHER LBs on the field on many of the plays.

Okereke is doing well.

 

 

Quote

 

Still a few missing pieces but in 2022 we’re back to possibly looking at a QB or not.  Hoping Winston throws for 30:15 TD:Int and 4K yards.  Agree LDE might be an issue.  Thinking need to replace Doyle at some point.  Hoping Burns returns healthy and takes over for Rhodes later.  Wide receivers could use help and so could the cornerbacks.  

 

It will be a fun offseason.

 

You will see folks that shoot holes in mock drafts, dont take it personally

 

 

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We know Brees should announce his retirement soon and the Saints will want to keep Winston.  What is the open window 48hours before March 18th when we can talk to pending FAs.

 

As far as other fan’s opinions not really worried.  Over the years we all join in MR Ts draft with 2-3 extra picks each round and vast majority here including myself at best only guess 1-3 players the Colts actually draft.  Also learned the walls have eyes here that extend outside of the Colts organization and fan club.  Smoke screens and misinformation also plays in.

 

Did say surprise trade and folks already quick tempered to call it out.  Stranger things happen all the time.  In all honesty isn’t that what most Clubs do anyways...look at backups and 2nd stringers who displayed enough given limited snaps and target them in FA.  Especially if the player is buried behind a long-term starter.  
 

Defense can win games and as someone called out went heavy on DEs to replace Houston and Autry not focusing on drafting one but instead focused on other areas of need.  Really hard finding a good-great LDE and we might do well to find one in the draft early.  As for this example on going heavy with DBs in FA we have to look at players who I thought were 1-2x better than Rock and Blackmon and guess what found 2 who were available FAs this year so why not build it.

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17 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think we need more of a vertical TE.  Young Mo can take over for Doyle.  Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss is more of the vertical TE we need, and he could be taken in the 3rd or 4th instead of round 1, if you didn't want Ertz.  Thing is, Ertz could probably be had for a 3rd or 4th, and he's only 30/31.

 

Like to have Diablo on the team.  He is a bigger more athletic Willis, IMO.  Not a real cover guy that I think would be hard to call a pure S.

Interesting take on Yeboah.  Give you credit he is one of the best pass blocking TEs available and can catch.  Guess prior history as a WR/CB helped him out in those regards.  Not much of a run blocking TE.  At least with Freiermuth you get a complete package.

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On 2/3/2021 at 1:45 AM, OhioColt said:

OTC $64.887 million Cap Room as of 02/03

 

Restructured Contracts

Ryan Kelly – Split his Roster bonus in 2022 in half 2.325m (Colts save 8.502m) 990k base, 2.833m Prorated bonus, 2.325 roster bonus and 6.148m Cap Number

 

Grover Stewart – Split his 1.34m Roster Bonus in 2021 to 670k (Colts save 3.56m) 990k base, 3.03m prorated bonus a 670k roster bonus Cap Number 4.690m

 

Jack Doyle – Split his 750k Roster Bonus to 375k (Colts saved 1.825m) 1.075 base, 2.575 prorated bonus, 375k roster bonus Cap Number 4.025m

 

Trade – CB Kenny Moore II to LV Raiders for RDE Maxx Crosby

Gain 5.74m for Moore.  Assuming with Crosby take over his rookie contract scheduled to be a 2023 FA 2021 Cap 1.045m and 2022 Cap 1.160m

 

Retired

Rivers

AC

 

FA Signings

QB Jameis Winston 1 year / 5m

LT Trent Williams 4-year / 18m, 20m plus 6m roster bonus, 23m plus 6m roster bonus, 25m 

LCB Troy Hill 2 year/ $14m, 16m plus 6m roster bonus

FS Marcus Williams – 5 yr / 8m+, 10m plus 6m roster bonus, 12, 14, 16m

RCB Artie Burns (Bears) 2 year / prove-it deal $1.5m, 3m plus incentives.  2017 had a PFF grade of 70.5

LT Roderick Johnson 4-year / 2m plus, 2.5m, 2m, 3m, 3.5m

SS Deon Bush (Bears) 2 year / 1.035m, 1.75m

LDE Morgan Fox (Rams) 3 year / 5m plus 2m roster bonus, 6m, 7m

Mike Hilton 2 year / 6m, 8m

 

Colts FA’s lost

Brissett

Houston

Autry

Hooker

Clark

Wilson

Carrie

Wilson

Carrie

Green

Burton

Walker JR

Mack

Odum

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

Hilton 1 / 8m

Rhodes 2 / 7m, 9m

Hunt 2 / 990k, 1.035m

Muhammad 3 / 3m, 4m, 5m

 

Restricted Free Agents

Stallworth 1 / 750 k * updated colts already extended

Dulin 2 / 1m STP *update Colts already extended

MAC UDFA – Original Tender 2.24m

Pascal RFA 2nd Round tender 3.422m

Smith ERFA 1 / 850 k STP

 

2021 Cap Room 7.449m

 

2021 Draft Needs

QB, WR, TE, MLB, RB, SS

 

R1 TE Pat Freiemuth

R2 MLB Chaz Surratt

R3 RB Trey Sermon

R4 SS Divine Deablo

R5 LDE Victor Dimukeje

R6 LB Charles Snowden – best available WR

R7 OT Kayode Awosika

 

 

QB

Jameis Winston

Jacob Eason

 

RB

Jonathan Taylor

Trey Sermon

Nyheim Hines

Jordan Wilkins

 

WR

T.Y. Hilton

Ashton Dulin

Parris Campbell

 

WR

Michael Pittman Jr.

Dezmon Patmon

Quartney Davis

 

WR

Zach Pascal

DeMichael Harris

J.J. Nelson

 

TE

Jack Doyle

Pat Freiemuth

Mo Alie-Cox

Noah Togiai

 

LT

Trent Williams

Roderick Johnson

 

LG

Quenton Nelson

Joey Hunt

 

C

Ryan Kelly

Danny Pinter

 

RG

Mark Glowinski

Jake Eldrenkamp

 

RT

Branden Smith

Will Holden

Kayode Awosika

 

LDE

Morgan Fox

Ben Banogu

Victor Dimukeje

 

LDT

DeForest Buckner

Tyquan Lewis

 

RDT

Grover Stewart

Taylor Stallworth

 

RDE

Al-Quadin Muhammad

Maxx Crosby

Kemoko Turay

 

WLB

Darius Leonard

Matthew Adams

 

MLB

Chaz Surratt

Zaire Franklin

Jordan Glasgow

 

SLB

Bobby Okereke

Charles Snowden

E.J. Speed

 

LCB

Troy Hill

Rock Ya-Sin

Mike Hilton

Isaiah Rodgers

 

SS

Khari Willis

Divine Deablo

Deon Bush

 

FS

Marcus Williams

Julian Blackmon

Ibraheim Campbell

 

RCB

Xavier Rhodes

Artie Burns

Marvell Tell III

Tremon Smith

 

Winston a high risk/reward player for a low cost QB shouldn't feel pressured and have plenty of time with our OL.  Hoping time spent learning from Brees and Reich's own development Winston catches on.  If not we have a very good defense to keep us in the game.  With our projected 2021 Cap Space and projected movements the Colts should be heavily active in Free Agency.

Aside from trade, not bad.... Except I'm not excited to lose walker and Carrie twice in FA.

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48 minutes ago, OhioColt said:

Seen where Pat was compared to Gronk which wouldn’t complain.  Just one long shot wild idea 

Hard to project. I am no expert but there have been a few TEs who've come out who've been 'Gronked' if you will. 

Njoku, Hockenson, for example.

I'd be really loathe spending a 1st round pick on that position. Even if Kyle Pitt falls there, I'd take a long hard look at it. Surely there'd be other game changing players in positions of greater value than TE. I think 1st round would be really bad value.

 

The top 3 TEs today are Travis Kelce, a 3rd rounder. Waller, a 5th rounder. And the beast in San Fran who was plucked out of round 6. 

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5 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

Hard to project. I am no expert but there have been a few TEs who've come out who've been 'Gronked' if you will. 

Njoku, Hockenson, for example.

I'd be really loathe spending a 1st round pick on that position. Even if Kyle Pitt falls there, I'd take a long hard look at it. Surely there'd be other game changing players in positions of greater value than TE. I think 1st round would be really bad value.

 

The top 3 TEs today are Travis Kelce, a 3rd rounder. Waller, a 5th rounder. And the beast in San Fran who was plucked out of round 6. 

TE in Round 1 is a very long shot odds for sure.  Early in the season I had Iowa State's TE Charlie Kolar as our target and probably still could be gotten in Round 3. 

 

With Walker's dad mentioned he didn't think he son would resign with the Colts make me think the Colts might consider a top MLB early.  Doesn't look like Houston is coming back and I don't know if we have really seen enough from Banogu to trust him to fully take over LDE.  An Edge player or two is also another top need especially given Turay's re-occurring injuries.

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Not a big fan of TE in the first or RB in the 3rd and I wouldn't enjoy trading away Moore for a lesser player imo. 

 

Beyond that I could work with this. Ditch the trade imo and take a DE in the first. Then be flexible with the 3rd, but just not RB imo. Draft one later or nab a cheap FA. I'd love Winston with Eason as a moderate risk, high reward plan at QB; it's a financially low risk for sure.

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