Separation: 2016-2020 averages + 2020 game by game

[EastStreet]

 

Someone was super lazy and wanted to see separation stats. So here ya lol

 

Below is:

1. Definitions
2. Notes/Comments
3. 2016-2020 Averages for separation and cushion
4. 2020 game by game separation stats (top 5 targets)

 

 

Definitions - some sites measure differently, so here are the definitions
Average Separation (SEP) - The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.

 

Average Cushion (CUSH) - The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets.

 

Notes/Comments
1. All stats are from Nextgen
2. League Average - 2.85 (anything 3.2 or over is very good)
3. Doyle and Ebron were very good (top 15 of all WRs and TEs)
4. For those that complained about Rogers, #5 overall in 2018
5. Dulin, Alie-Cox, Burton, and Johnson have had some nice separation stats in limited action
6. There's many reasons someone can be better or worse at separation. And WR/TEs that run great routes, need less separation to be productive. QBs, mix, and scheme, also can be a huge impact.
7. For those that complained about separation last year, TY, Pascal, and Doyle all had their best separation (in five years) in 2019. Nobody open? Na...

 

 

2016-2020 Yearly Averages

*Min - 43 targets for full years, 18 for current

 

Year - SEP (CUSH)

 

Hilton
2020 - 2.6 (5.4) 
2019 - 3.0 (6.1) 
2018 - 2.3 (5.9)
2017 - 2.5 (6.1)
2016 - 2.6 (5.7)

Pascal 
2020 - 2.5 (4.7) 
2019 - 2.8 (5.7) 
2018 - 2.4 (5.7)

Doyle
2020 - NA (NA) 
2019 - 3.5 (5.4) - #7 overall
2018 - NA (NA)
2017 - 3.4 (5.2) - #8 overall
2016 - 3.3 (5.3)

Ebron
2019 - 3.2 (5.8)
2018 - 3.4 (5.8) #13 overall

Rogers
2018 - 3.6 (5.7) #5 overall

Grant
2018 - 2.6 (5.7)

Moncrief
2017 - 2.2 (5.6)
2016 - 2.4 (5.7)

Aiken
2017 - 2.1 (5.0)

Dorsett
2016 - 2.9 (7.1)

Allen 
2016 - 3.0 (5.2)

 

 

2020 Game by Game Separation (top 5 on team)

Hilton - 2.35/2.72/2.40/3.08/1.90/4.0
Pascal - 1.29/2.60/3.11/1.05/6.08/3.23
Doyle - 2.62/NA/NA/1.12/2.54/2.37
Alie-Cox - 3.42/2.04/3.53/1.20/NA/NA
Pittman - NA/2.08/2.73/NA/NA/NA
Dulin - NA/4.16/NA/NA/NA/NA
Fountain - NA/NA/2.41/NA/NA/NA
Burton - NA/NA/NA/3.11/3.67/4.72
Johnson - NA/NA/NA/NA/4.24/2.05
Campbell - 2.58/injured

[DontEverGiveUp]

Thanks for sharing.

 

I wonder what these stats really tell us, since it is only for plays where the receiver is targeted.

 

I can't speak for last year, but the popular take I get from Colts fans is that Brissett was too conservative in his decision making and didn't push the ball downfield.  The stats you provided show that the receivers were open last year when they were targeted, but I wonder how open they were getting on all routes...I honestly don't know.  I assume Rivers makes more tight window throws than Brissett, and often times successfully, so I would expect that to skew the separation stats downward slightly for this season.

[DynaMike]

 Great info. Thanks! 

 I was curious about the above question posed by Dontevergiveup too. It seems relevant. 

 

In addition, is there a metric that takes in to account whether the receiver got seperation by his own route-running, or if he was schemed open? In other words, did the receiver get the seperation by his own skill, or did the coach's play get him seperation? That seems helpful when determining if it was indeed the receiver's skill, or the coach's skill.

 

Finally, it seems that frequently dumping the ball off to a RB would increase the seperation numbers, as they rarely have someone relatively close by, and Rivers seems to do that a lot.

 

As someone not very computer savvy, I appreciate many of your advanced metrics posts. Thanks again!

[EastStreet]

11 hours ago, DontEverGiveUp said:

Thanks for sharing.

 

I wonder what these stats really tell us, since it is only for plays where the receiver is targeted.

 

I can't speak for last year, but the popular take I get from Colts fans is that Brissett was too conservative in his decision making and didn't push the ball downfield.  The stats you provided show that the receivers were open last year when they were targeted, but I wonder how open they were getting on all routes...I honestly don't know.  I assume Rivers makes more tight window throws than Brissett, and often times successfully, so I would expect that to skew the separation stats downward slightly for this season.

There was plenty of all22 film showing WR's open that were never targeted last year. Brissett's problem was he just couldn't get through his progressions to see find the open guys, and didn't throw people open. If his first or second read wasn't open, he was in trouble. 

 

Overall, there's always context, but we've seen some of the same guys through 3 different QBs, and can safely draw some conclusions. We know Doyle has always been a great route runner who gets great separation regardless of his lack of speed. We know TY and Pascal run great routes, and need less separation to be productive. We've seen Rivers and Luck spread the ball around to lots of different guys. 

[EastStreet]

11 hours ago, DynaMike said:

 Great info. Thanks! 

 I was curious about the above question posed by Dontevergiveup too. It seems relevant. 

 

In addition, is there a metric that takes in to account whether the receiver got seperation by his own route-running, or if he was schemed open? In other words, did the receiver get the seperation by his own skill, or did the coach's play get him seperation? That seems helpful when determining if it was indeed the receiver's skill, or the coach's skill.

 

Finally, it seems that frequently dumping the ball off to a RB would increase the seperation numbers, as they rarely have someone relatively close by, and Rivers seems to do that a lot.

 

As someone not very computer savvy, I appreciate many of your advanced metrics posts. Thanks again!

Thanks for the kind words, and you're more than welcome.

 

There is no metric about scheme opening WRs. You can make certain assumptions about certain teams though in terms of how often they might use things like rubs and clear outs. We use them as well, and some games heavier than others. We used a lot of rubs for instance vs MN. Overall though, it all should average out over the season. 

 

The stats I posted included no sep/cush stats for RBs. Just WR/TE.

 

 

[DontEverGiveUp]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

There was plenty of all22 film showing WR's open that were never targeted last year. Brissett's problem was he just couldn't get through his progressions to see find the open guys, and didn't throw people open. If his first or second read wasn't open, he was in trouble. 

 

Overall, there's always context, but we've seen some of the same guys through 3 different QBs, and can safely draw some conclusions. We know Doyle has always been a great route runner who gets great separation regardless of his lack of speed. We know TY and Pascal run great routes, and need less separation to be productive. We've seen Rivers and Luck spread the ball around to lots of different guys. 

Thanks for the response.  I will certainly take your word for it on Brissett's abilities last season.

 

I'm hoping that once Pittman comes back, and as our offense continues to gel, we will become much more of a threat in the passing game, which may open some bigger holes for JT too.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, DontEverGiveUp said:

Thanks for the response.  I will certainly take your word for it on Brissett's abilities last season.

 

I'm hoping that once Pittman comes back, and as our offense continues to gel, we will become much more of a threat in the passing game, which may open some bigger holes for JT too.

I'd like to see the WR rotation firm up a bit once Pittman gets back. TY/Pittman/Pascal/Johnson might end up being a nice rotation. Burton seems to be eating up slot type snaps, so there's that too. As far as being a threat in the passing game, I think a lot of the issue has simply been game plan / play calling. Not really sure why we chose to throw it a bunch in the first game with zero preseason vs a team who is horrible vs the run. I do understand why we tossed it a lot vs the Bengals after getting down. The rest of the games were just heavy run / conservative game plans though.

 

I'd just like to see some balance.

[CurBeatElite]

On 10/28/2020 at 1:42 PM, EastStreet said:

I'd like to see the WR rotation firm up a bit once Pittman gets back. TY/Pittman/Pascal/Johnson might end up being a nice rotation. Burton seems to be eating up slot type snaps, so there's that too. As far as being a threat in the passing game, I think a lot of the issue has simply been game plan / play calling. Not really sure why we chose to throw it a bunch in the first game with zero preseason vs a team who is horrible vs the run. I do understand why we tossed it a lot vs the Bengals after getting down. The rest of the games were just heavy run / conservative game plans though.

 

I'd just like to see some balance.

 

Personally, I think Mack going down early in week 1 changed the game plan.   Also, aside from the 2 bad interceptions, Rivers was very efficient passing vs. Jax.  Before he got hurt (I think it was the 4th offensive drive - TD drive 1, Hines got stopped on 4th and 1 at Jax 3 drive 2, Rivers threw pick drive 3) Mack was very effective as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.  The missed FG, getting stuffed on 4th and 1 deep in Jax territory on our 2nd drive and costly interceptions certainly didn't help, as it allowed Jax to stay in the game and then take a lead.  Had we gotten that 4th and 1 we could have easily been looking at 14-0 after our 2nd drive (or if we kicked the FG, 10-0).  The 3rd drive, Rivers threw a pick which gave Jax a 27 yard field to work with and they scored to tie it 7-7 -- all the sudden, we're looking at a tied ball game instead of a 14-0 game.  I'm  not sure how much trust the coaching staff had in Taylor week 1 into his rookie season without having a preseason, but my guess is that if we got up 14-0 or 21-0 we would've ran a lot more (if Mack didn't get hurt, I also think we would've stayed with the run a bit more).  We were pretty balanced the first two drives.  Also, it was week 1 -- now everyone knows the Jags don't really have a good run D, but that wasn't such an easy assessment with no tape from this year available on them that first week.

 

I'm with you though, other than the NYJ game, we haven't really been balanced on O.  It'd be nice to get more of a balance during the final stretch.

 

 

[EastStreet]

36 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Personally, I think Mack going down early in week 1 changed the game plan.   Also, aside from the 2 bad interceptions, Rivers was very efficient passing vs. Jax.  Before he got hurt (I think it was the 4th offensive drive - TD drive 1, Hines got stopped on 4th and 1 at Jax 3 drive 2, Rivers threw pick drive 3) Mack was very effective as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.  The missed FG, getting stuffed on 4th and 1 deep in Jax territory on our 2nd drive and costly interceptions certainly didn't help, as it allowed Jax to stay in the game and then take a lead.  Had we gotten that 4th and 1 we could have easily been looking at 14-0 after our 2nd drive (or if we kicked the FG, 10-0).  The 3rd drive, Rivers threw a pick which gave Jax a 27 yard field to work with and they scored to tie it 7-7 -- all the sudden, we're looking at a tied ball game instead of a 14-0 game.  I'm  not sure how much trust the coaching staff had in Taylor week 1 into his rookie season without having a preseason, but my guess is that if we got up 14-0 or 21-0 we would've ran a lot more (if Mack didn't get hurt, I also think we would've stayed with the run a bit more).  We were pretty balanced the first two drives.  Also, it was week 1 -- now everyone knows the Jags don't really have a good run D, but that wasn't such an easy assessment with no tape from this year available on them that first week.

 

I'm with you though, other than the NYJ game, we haven't really been balanced on O.  It'd be nice to get more of a balance during the final stretch.

 

 

IDK. We came out throwing on 1st from the start when Mack was still in. Not something I'd do the first game of the season, without a preseason, without more chemistry, vs a team that is bottom 4 vs the run. It wasn't a mystery week 1 that they'd be bad vs the run. They were bottom 5 in the league last year too. And it's not like we haven't been without Mack before. Heck, we had Williams, a 4th string guy run for 100+ 2 games in a row last year when Mack was out. Wilkins is capable too. But we also had who many considered one of the best rooks in the league too.

[Nickster]

On 10/27/2020 at 5:25 PM, EastStreet said:

 

Someone was super lazy and wanted to see separation stats. So here ya lol

 

Below is:

1. Definitions
2. Notes/Comments
3. 2016-2020 Averages for separation and cushion
4. 2020 game by game separation stats (top 5 targets)

 

 

Definitions - some sites measure differently, so here are the definitions
Average Separation (SEP) - The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.

 

Average Cushion (CUSH) - The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets.

 

Notes/Comments
1. All stats are from Nextgen
2. League Average - 2.85 (anything 3.2 or over is very good)
3. Doyle and Ebron were very good (top 15 of all WRs and TEs)
4. For those that complained about Rogers, #5 overall in 2018
5. Dulin, Alie-Cox, Burton, and Johnson have had some nice separation stats in limited action
6. There's many reasons someone can be better or worse at separation. And WR/TEs that run great routes, need less separation to be productive. QBs, mix, and scheme, also can be a huge impact.
7. For those that complained about separation last year, TY, Pascal, and Doyle all had their best separation (in five years) in 2019. Nobody open? Na...

 

 

2016-2020 Yearly Averages

*Min - 43 targets for full years, 18 for current

 

Year - SEP (CUSH)

 

Hilton
2020 - 2.6 (5.4) 
2019 - 3.0 (6.1) 
2018 - 2.3 (5.9)
2017 - 2.5 (6.1)
2016 - 2.6 (5.7)

Pascal 
2020 - 2.5 (4.7) 
2019 - 2.8 (5.7) 
2018 - 2.4 (5.7)

Doyle
2020 - NA (NA) 
2019 - 3.5 (5.4) - #7 overall
2018 - NA (NA)
2017 - 3.4 (5.2) - #8 overall
2016 - 3.3 (5.3)

Ebron
2019 - 3.2 (5.8)
2018 - 3.4 (5.8) #13 overall

Rogers
2018 - 3.6 (5.7) #5 overall

Grant
2018 - 2.6 (5.7)

Moncrief
2017 - 2.2 (5.6)
2016 - 2.4 (5.7)

Aiken
2017 - 2.1 (5.0)

Dorsett
2016 - 2.9 (7.1)

Allen 
2016 - 3.0 (5.2)

 

 

2020 Game by Game Separation (top 5 on team)

Hilton - 2.35/2.72/2.40/3.08/1.90/4.0
Pascal - 1.29/2.60/3.11/1.05/6.08/3.23
Doyle - 2.62/NA/NA/1.12/2.54/2.37
Alie-Cox - 3.42/2.04/3.53/1.20/NA/NA
Pittman - NA/2.08/2.73/NA/NA/NA
Dulin - NA/4.16/NA/NA/NA/NA
Fountain - NA/NA/2.41/NA/NA/NA
Burton - NA/NA/NA/3.11/3.67/4.72
Johnson - NA/NA/NA/NA/4.24/2.05
Campbell - 2.58/injured

Thanks for filling my stats pail.  I am way too lazy to figure out how to look all that stuff up.

 

It looks like our receivers are well below league average on seperation this year as I suspected.  This is the post in the discussion that led to my request for the stats dole.

 

 

Posted Sunday at 07:56 AM

   On 10/23/2020 at 6:26 PM,  EastStreet said: 

?? Separation is average at worst #14), and YAC is almost top 10. 

 

 

“Can you find WR downfield route separation as opposed to RB behind and near the LOS numbers?

I would suspect that our WR separation numbers are very low with old TY, slow Pascal whom I like as a complimentary player by the way, and a bunch of p squad guys.

 

I think that would give us a better idea of what is going on out there.  It seems oversimplified to just quote overall numbers when many of our passes are to rbs.

 

Of course these routes are going to have more separation and yacs.

 

You catch a swing pass out if the backfiels. You are normally open by at least 3 to for yds then have some yac after that.  Probably skews your narrative I would think “

[Nickster]

On 10/27/2020 at 5:25 PM, EastStreet said:

4. For those that complained about Rogers, #5 overall in 2018

Since Rogers isn’t currently on a team, maybe these numbers don’t quite paint the picture you seem to and there is a lot more to it than what nextgen can show.  If in fact CR was the 5th best at getting open in the entire NFL then you’d think he’d have gotten a contract from someone.  Must be more to this story.

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Thanks for filling my stats pail.  I am way too lazy to figure out how to look all that stuff up.

 

It looks like our receivers are well below league average on seperation this year as I suspected.  This is the post in the discussion that led to my request for the stats dole.

 

 

Posted Sunday at 07:56 AM

   On 10/23/2020 at 6:26 PM,  EastStreet said: 

?? Separation is average at worst #14), and YAC is almost top 10. 

 

 

“Can you find WR downfield route separation as opposed to RB behind and near the LOS numbers?

I would suspect that our WR separation numbers are very low with old TY, slow Pascal whom I like as a complimentary player by the way, and a bunch of p squad guys.

 

I think that would give us a better idea of what is going on out there.  It seems oversimplified to just quote overall numbers when many of our passes are to rbs.

 

Of course these routes are going to have more separation and yacs.

 

You catch a swing pass out if the backfiels. You are normally open by at least 3 to for yds then have some yac after that.  Probably skews your narrative I would think “

You're ignoring a lot of basic stuff. Like

1. TY has never had huge separation, or needed it to be effective. He has the same separation this year as he did 5 years ago.

2. Cush impacts separation. It's why I listed it. Many of the WRs with high separation also have high cushion.

3. There are plenty of top WRs and top Rooks with separation rates below TY and Pascal. Like OBJ, AJ Green, Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, Will Fuller, DJ Moore, Tee Higgins, Agholor, Chark, Gallup, Galloday, Thielen, etc.. Several of those on track for ~1000 yard seasons.

4. RBs are not counted in Nextgen stats. It's all TE and WR.

5. As far as YAC stats, every team's overall YAC is impacted by RBs, who typically have higher #s. YAC is also highly impacted by scheme and routes run. TY and Pascal are ahead here than a lot of big names, even though they are not deep guys, or guys getting hit in space like slots. 

[EastStreet]

28 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Since Rogers isn’t currently on a team, maybe these numbers don’t quite paint the picture you seem to and there is a lot more to it than what nextgen can show.  If in fact CR was the 5th best at getting open in the entire NFL then you’d think he’d have gotten a contract from someone.  Must be more to this story.

Never said Rogers was great. Luck made good use of him though. Not painting a picture of anything based on Rogers. 

[DougDew]

Looks like since many of the receivers had the largest numbers in 2019, measured by how open they were when they were targeted, it suggests strongly that Brissett would not throw to a receiver unless he was wide-er open at the time Brissett pulled the trigger. 

 

IOW, lack of anticipation. 

 

But probably also fewer picks.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Looks like since many of the receivers had the largest numbers in 2019, measured by how open they were when they were targeted, it suggests strongly that Brissett would not throw to a receiver unless he was wide-er open at the time Brissett pulled the trigger. 

 

IOW, lack of anticipation. 

 

But probably also fewer picks.

I simply think opponents lacked fear of our passing game, concentrated on the run, and didn't put much thought into our deep game. Lots of soft zone is fine vs Brissett. But yes, Brissett seemed to struggle throwing guy open, and throwing much at all unless a guy was wide open. He didn't like throwing to the seam either.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I simply think opponents lacked fear of our passing game, concentrated on the run, and didn't put much thought into our deep game. Lots of soft zone is fine vs Brissett. But yes, Brissett seemed to struggle throwing guy open, and throwing much at all unless a guy was wide open. He didn't like throwing to the seam either.

I don't disagree with your comments about JB, but what about this:

 

They were open more in 2019 than at any time the past 5 years.  And JB did not throw longer passes.  So they were open more on shorter routes than before. That's why those numbers are what they are.  They were not long balls, they were short.

 

Maybe its a chicken or the egg situation here, but are you saying that the defense allowed our receivers to get open more on shorter routes because they did not fear JB throwing the ball long?  That it was all because the QB lacked talent?

 

I would think that they allowed our receivers to get open on the shorter routes because they didn't fear the talent the receivers possess...did not fear our receivers ability to do anything meaningful with the ball once they caught it.  They let JB throw it to them short because there was little chance our catchers would turn it into a big play.

 

They would never let Tyreek Hill, Deebo, Lockett, DK, or AJBrown, Kelce, Kittle; etc. get that much separation on shorter routes.

 

Between TY, Pascal and Doyle, TY was the biggest YAC threat, and he really has never been a shifty break a tackle guy.

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't disagree with your comments about JB, but what about this:

 

They were open more in 2019 than at any time the past 5 years.  And JB did not throw longer passes.  So they were open more on shorter routes than before. That's why those numbers are what they are.  They were not long balls, they were short.

 

Maybe its a chicken or the egg situation here, but are you saying that the defense allowed our receivers to get open more on shorter routes because they did not fear JB throwing the ball long?  That it was the QB's lack of talent.?

 

I would think that they allowed our receivers to get open on the shorter routes because they didn't fear the talent the receivers possess...did not fear our receivers ability to do anything meaningful with the ball once they caught it.  They let JB throw it to them short.

I'm saying 

No fear of our passing game (bottom 10 in attempts) = soft zone & run keying = more cushion = more open

Has nothing to do with deep passing. 

10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 

They would never let Tyreek Hill, Deebo, Lockett, DK, or AJBrown, Kelce, Kittle; etc. get that wide open on shorter routes.

 

C'mon. between TY, Pascal and Doyle, TY was the biggest YAC threat, and he really has never been a shifty break a tackle guy.

Pascal, Ebron, and Doyle all had 5+ YAC/R last year, which is very good. That's more than Metcalf and Tyreek Hill last year. Kelce had less YAC than Pascal, Ebron, Dolye, and TY last year. TY had 0.1 less than Hill last year, but was a full yard less than Pascal.

[DougDew]

45 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm saying 

No fear of our passing game (bottom 10 in attempts) = soft zone & run keying = more cushion = more open

Has nothing to do with deep passing. 

Pascal, Ebron, and Doyle all had 5+ YAC/R last year, which is very good. That's more than Metcalf and Tyreek Hill last year. Kelce had less YAC than Pascal, Ebron, Dolye, and TY last year. TY had 0.1 less than Hill last year, but was a full yard less than Pascal.

I'm simply saying that even though there was more YAC yards, nobody fears Doyle like they do Kelce, or Pascal like any of those guys.  TYs YAC underneath isn't that threatening compared to his YAC from over the top, so give him more room to catch underneath by protecting the ceiling.  IMO, all of that weighs into how defenses play those different receivers and our O.  

 

I think you try to make the argument that improving talent at the receiving positions is not as important as some (many) suggest, and that we can get by with small improvements over what we have.  I don't agree, and I think our losses in the playoffs over the years and to NE frequently was directly because of the lack of talent opposite TY, when coaches took him out of the game.  To that extent, even having an elite QB like Luck was useless.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I'm simply saying that even though there was more YAC yards, nobody fears Doyle like they do Kelce, or Pascal like any of those guys.  TYs YAC underneath isn't that threatening compared to his YAC from over the top, so give him more room to catch underneath by protecting the ceiling.  IMO, all of that weighs into how defenses play those different receivers and our O.  

 

I think you try to make the argument that improving talent at the receiving positions is not as important as some (many) suggest, and that we can get by with small improvements over what we have.  I don't agree, and I think our losses in the playoffs over the years and to NE frequently was directly because of the lack of talent opposite TY, when coaches took him out of the game.  To that extent, even having an elite QB like Luck was useless.

Dude, you keep making points that are opposed to what the stats tell us. That is all. I can't help that it doesn't support your narrative.

 

I don't disagree that in years past, we would have benefited from another WR opposite TY in the playoffs. But Ballard has made plenty of attempts to do just that. And it has zero bearing on what we have this year. And we lost to KC in 2018 because we let them score 24 in the first half lol.

 

A starting 3 of PC/TY/MP would have been very nice. PC being out was just an unfortunate piece of bad luck. We still don't know what Pittman is, and can't even begin to grade that move. We also know that Johnson has shown to be very productive in his first 3 games. 

[Nickster]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Dude, you keep making points that are opposed to what the stats tell us. That is all. I can't help that it doesn't support your narrative.

 

I don't disagree that in years past, we would have benefited from another WR opposite TY in the playoffs. But Ballard has made plenty of attempts to do just that. And it has zero bearing on what we have this year. And we lost to KC in 2018 because we let them score 24 in the first half lol.

 

A starting 3 of PC/TY/MP would have been very nice. PC being out was just an unfortunate piece of bad luck. We still don't know what Pittman is, and can't even begin to grade that move. We also know that Johnson has shown to be very productive in his first 3 games. 

But East you keep making points on your interpretation of what the stats tell us.

 

Posting stats is one thing.  Explaining what they tell us is another.

 

You seem to be an absolutist.

 

Like a Sith.

[DougDew]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Dude, you keep making points that are opposed to what the stats tell us. That is all. I can't help that it doesn't support your narrative.

 

I don't disagree that in years past, we would have benefited from another WR opposite TY in the playoffs. But Ballard has made plenty of attempts to do just that. And it has zero bearing on what we have this year. And we lost to KC in 2018 because we let them score 24 in the first half lol.

 

A starting 3 of PC/TY/MP would have been very nice. PC being out was just an unfortunate piece of bad luck. We still don't know what Pittman is, and can't even begin to grade that move. We also know that Johnson has shown to be very productive in his first 3 games. 

I don't have narratives.  I use stats objectively, not cherry picked then selective lifted up for illustration. (I'm not saying that's what you have done)

 

What exactly do the stats tell us.  I thought you said that our receivers caught the ball in 2019 at a point where they were more wide open than at any time in their careers.  

 

Which means that in 2019 defenses were concerned more about keeping us from scoring by means other than either the deep ball or by athletic YAC.  The deep ball was no threat because JB could/would not throw it.  And athletic YAC was no threat because our receivers have none.  

 

Whenever TY has been a non factor or hasn't played, the Colts struggle to score and win games regardless if it was Luck or JB at QB.  Because there has never been a scoring threat on the offense other than TY.  And many times BB used to mall our nonphysical finesse WRs, rendering our GOAT QB to force things and throw picks and perform like Andy Dalton.  

 

I don't think any of that is debatable.

[crazycolt1]

We can look, dissect and debate stats till hades freezes over but the only stat that matters is the win-loss stat. 

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, Nickster said:

But East you keep making points on your interpretation of what the stats tell us.

 

Posting stats is one thing.  Explaining what they tell us is another.

 

You seem to be an absolutist.

 

Like a Sith.

Feel free to interpret how you like. Some stats are simply very clear.

[Nickster]

16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Feel free to interpret how you like. Some stats are simply very clear.

No doubt some stats are.  But separation stats that only measure balls thrown and don't take into account who's throwing it  or how far down the field the pattern was or what the play call was or if there was a blown coverage, etc., ad nauseum, aren't that clear,

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

I don't have narratives.  I use stats objectively, not cherry picked then selective lifted up for illustration. (I'm not saying that's what you have done)

 

What exactly do the stats tell us.  I thought you said that our receivers caught the ball in 2019 at a point where they were more wide open than at any time in their careers.  

I don't tell you, the stats tell you that.

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

Which means that in 2019 defenses were concerned more about keeping us from scoring by means other than either the deep ball or by athletic YAC.  The deep ball was no threat because JB could/would not throw it.  And athletic YAC was no threat because our receivers have none.  

It just means folks were open when they were passed too, Being JB/Indy was a bottom ten team in attempts, it simply means our game plan and play calling did not prioritize passing (for whatever reasons including the QB just wasn't that good) 

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

 

Whenever TY has been a non factor or hasn't played, the Colts struggle to score and win games regardless if it was Luck or JB at QB.  Because there has never been a scoring threat on the offense other than TY.  And many times BB used to mall our nonphysical finesse WRs, rendering our GOAT QB to force things and throw picks and perform like Andy Dalton.  

 

I don't think any of that is debatable.

In 2018, Luck was #2 in TDs thrown (only behind Mahomes), #6 in yards, and 5th in QBR.. Ebron was a bigger scoring threat than TY, scoring more than double the TDs that TY did. TY missed 2 games and was gimpy another 3-4. He only caught TDs in 4 games. All that said, we were formidable even without TY. Sure we were much better with TY, but you're not top 10 in TDs, Yards, and QBR if you're plain horrible without TY. 

 

In 2019, when we had TY and Ebron playing, neither were legit threats due to game plan and/or QB performance. 

[Superman]

On 10/27/2020 at 9:35 PM, DontEverGiveUp said:

Thanks for sharing.

 

I wonder what these stats really tell us, since it is only for plays where the receiver is targeted.

 

I can't speak for last year, but the popular take I get from Colts fans is that Brissett was too conservative in his decision making and didn't push the ball downfield.  The stats you provided show that the receivers were open last year when they were targeted, but I wonder how open they were getting on all routes...I honestly don't know.  I assume Rivers makes more tight window throws than Brissett, and often times successfully, so I would expect that to skew the separation stats downward slightly for this season.

 

It's a statistical representation that JB wouldn't throw the ball unless the receiver was clearly open.

 

This is cool info, but it's incomplete and has very limited value, IMO. 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Nickster said:

No doubt some stats are.  But separation stats that only measure balls thrown and don't take into account who's throwing it  or how far down the field the pattern was or what the play call was or if there was a blown coverage, etc., ad nauseum, aren't that clear,

Stats are averages, and are pretty clear over time. Sure their are always other factors. You however have a tendency to try and cloud simple stats with 100 other things that either can not be measured or proven, simply because stats don't support your opinion. Like I said, interpret how you like, and keep being you.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It's a statistical representation that JB wouldn't throw the ball unless the receiver was clearly open.

 

This is cool info, but it's incomplete and has very limited value, IMO. 

It's only one of many things. We also saw JB try to force it a lot to his first read which was typically TY, regardless of his open-ness. We also saw he lacked anticipation, etc., which also factored. 

[DougDew]

13 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I don't tell you, the stats tell you that.

It just means folks were open when they were passed too, Being JB/Indy was a bottom ten team in attempts, it simply means our game plan and play calling did not prioritize passing (for whatever reasons including the QB just wasn't that good) 

In 2018, Luck was #2 in TDs thrown (only behind Mahomes), #6 in yards, and 5th in QBR.. Ebron was a bigger scoring threat than TY, scoring more than double the TDs that TY did. TY missed 2 games and was gimpy another 3-4. He only caught TDs in 4 games. All that said, we were formidable even without TY. Sure we were much better with TY, but you're not top 10 in TDs, Yards, and QBR if you're plain horrible without TY. 

 

In 2019, when we had TY and Ebron playing, neither were legit threats due to game plan and/or QB performance. 

The stats say that the receivers were open when thrown too.  There can be no conclusion as to why that is without other information. 

 

The fact remains unrevealed by the stats you mention that when TY could not get open, the offense struggled mightily regardless who was playing QB.   

 

You're making my point.  Ebron was the one reliable second option that we have had in the past 7 years, and it showed.  Other years we had none, and it showed. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

It's only one of many things. We also saw JB try to force it a lot to his first read which was typically TY, regardless of his open-ness. We also saw he lacked anticipation, etc., which also factored. 

 

Sure. I don't know how to do it, but a more complete statistical analysis would show average separation for all receivers at the time of the throw, whether the receiver is targeted or not. Or combine that with average max separation along the route for every receiver.

 

But bottom line is watching the coaches film and doing some charting is the only way to really know what's happening on the back end of the play. Otherwise, people conclude that if the QB isn't throwing the ball, it must mean no one is getting open. That was often the narrative last season, and it wasn't true. JB just didn't have the ability to accurately deliver the ball on schedule. 

 

An indication to that point is that targeted receivers have less average separation this season than last, yet Rivers completion percentage is higher than JB's was. Rivers has probably also thrown more interceptable passes so far, so we have to wash for that somehow. But it's pretty obvious that Rivers is better at getting the ball to receivers within the flow of the offense.

[Nickster]

10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Stats are averages, and are pretty clear over time. Sure their are always other factors. You however have a tendency to try and cloud simple stats with 100 other things that either can not be measured or proven, simply because stats don't support your opinion. Like I said, interpret how you like, and keep being you.

Thank you for allowing me to be myself East.  You don't seem to know much about football if you don't see that the stats you are talking about are very limited in what they measure.  

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

The fact remains unrevealed by the stats you mention that when TY could not get open, the offense struggled mightily regardless who was playing QB.   

 

The stats don't reveal whether TY was open on plays on which he was not targeted, so that's somewhat fallacious.

 

Same is true for other receivers. Just because they weren't targeted doesn't mean they weren't open.

[DougDew]

Just now, Superman said:

 

The stats don't reveal whether TY was open on plays on which he was not targeted, so that's somewhat fallacious.

 

Same is true for other receivers. Just because they weren't targeted doesn't mean they weren't open.

I agree, my comment about TY was not specific to the initial stats, but to the stats East used in the response just above mine.  

 

 

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Sure. I don't know how to do it, but a more complete statistical analysis would show average separation for all receivers at the time of the throw, whether the receiver is targeted or not. Or combine that with average max separation along the route for every receiver.

I'd love to see sep stats on guys when not targeted. I've never seen it, so not sure it exists. Perhaps in time. I do recall seeing a lot of film, and all 22 captures of guys running open last year that were not targeted. Especially in the seem. Rogers was open a ton from what I recall in the seam, and rarely got a look.

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

But bottom line is watching the coaches film and doing some charting is the only way to really know what's happening on the back end of the play. Otherwise, people conclude that if the QB isn't throwing the ball, it must mean no one is getting open. That was often the narrative last season, and it wasn't true. JB just didn't have the ability to accurately deliver the ball on schedule. 

I agree the "not open" narrative was rampant, and simply defied film. JB was fine if his first read was wide open, but TY was generally his first read, and as we've seen, his separation stats were average. TY, like Pascal, are good route runners, and are good at "last cut" separation, which is more than adequate for a QB who throws with anticipation and delivers the ball on time. Rivers is much better at that, and Rivers is simply better at progressing, so he "deals" to others better too.

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

An indication to that point is that targeted receivers have less average separation this season than last, yet Rivers completion percentage is higher than JB's was. Rivers has probably also thrown more interceptable passes so far, so we have to wash for that somehow. But it's pretty obvious that Rivers is better at getting the ball to receivers within the flow of the offense.

I think that was true with Luck as well. Both have similar TD and INT rates. I think one difference, is Reich, when he inherited the team, knew he had to let Luck be Luck. I'm not sure if he is now being more conservative because he's afraid of River's INTs, or just because he wants a more conservative O. This is really the first time Reich is driving the ship on his own.

 

 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

I think that was true with Luck as well. Both have similar TD and INT rates. I think one difference, is Reich, when he inherited the team, knew he had to let Luck be Luck. I'm not sure if he is now being more conservative because he's afraid of River's INTs, or just because he wants a more conservative O. This is really the first time Reich is driving the ship on his own.

 

He's been here three years, and has had three different QBs, who all have very different styles, strengths and weaknesses.

 

We don't know what Reich is, or wants to be. Maybe he wants to be a run first guy, but the way he coached Luck says otherwise. You get him a talented, five tool QB, and suddenly he's more willing to open up the offense. Funny how that works...

[EastStreet]

24 minutes ago, DougDew said:

The stats say that the receivers were open when thrown too.  There can be no conclusion as to why that is without other information. 

 

The fact remains unrevealed by the stats you mention that when TY could not get open, the offense struggled mightily regardless who was playing QB.   

 

You're making my point.  Ebron was the one reliable second option that we have had in the past 7 years, and it showed.  Other years we had none, and it showed. 

lol. No, I'm not making your point. It's never good when your #1 WR doesn't get open, but we won plenty in 2018 when he didn't get open. In the two games he was out/injured, we still scored 24 points or more, but lost because our D gave up an average of 40 points in those to games. If you score 24, but give up 40, the chief issue is not TY getting open. He couldn't get open vs Buf and Oak, yet we beat those two teams handily. The Jax loss was just a rotten egg from a game plan perspective.

 

Ebron was a reliable option because we changed the way he was used. We upped his RZ targets by a ton, and it worked. The simple fact is, Luck was skilled at dealing it around. 

[EastStreet]

29 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Thank you for allowing me to be myself East.  You don't seem to know much about football if you don't see that the stats you are talking about are very limited in what they measure.  

Stats aren't everything. They are indicators. I use stats to support my opinion, nothing more. You however seem to brush away even the most simple stats/indicators based on anecdotal spin. Make better, and more logical arguments, instead of "stats don't matter", "stats aren't everything", and "interpretation"... Typically, if your opinion is correct, there will be stats there to support your opinion.

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

He's been here three years, and has had three different QBs, who all have very different styles, strengths and weaknesses.

 

We don't know what Reich is, or wants to be. Maybe he wants to be a run first guy, but the way he coached Luck says otherwise. You get him a talented, five tool QB, and suddenly he's more willing to open up the offense. Funny how that works...

Yup, and yup. I have zero idea who he is. In SD/LA, he was pass happy, with absolutely the worst balance in the league. In Philly, didn't call plays so hard to draw any conclusions. Year one in Indy, I have to think he went with the flow and simply wasn't going to change the O too much. Year two, had a skill deficient QB, so can't draw any conclusion. Year three, he has the same QB again he was pass happy with in SD/LA, but is far more conservative. Almost nothing that allows you to draw any conclusion about identity.

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yup, and yup. I have zero idea who he is. In SD/LA, he was pass happy, with absolutely the worst balance in the league. In Philly, didn't call plays so hard to draw any conclusions. Year one in Indy, I have to think he went with the flow and simply wasn't going to change the O too much. Year two, had a skill deficient QB, so can't draw any conclusion. Year three, he has the same QB again he was pass happy with in SD/LA, but is far more conservative. Almost nothing that allows you to draw any conclusion about identity.

 

When Reich was the Chargers OC, they had no RBs, a bad OL, and a prime Rivers. Reich's play calling was often questioned, and without really watching them I don't have an opinion on the quality of his play calling, but it's obvious the circumstances influenced the decision to be pass happy. I think they tended to fall behind in games back then, also.

 

But I definitely question his flow and rhythm at times. For the most part, I thought he was really good in 2018, with a couple struggles here and there. That late season loss to the Jags was an F, the first six weeks of the season were rough (when Luck was trying to get going, and the OL was being shuffled due to injury), but I felt like he was a B+ play caller in 2018. Since then, there have been fits and starts, and I don't think they can all be blamed on the QB. In fact, I've felt like some of his issues have been independent of the quality of the QBing. 

 

Someone mentioned the lack of balance in the Jags opener this year. Prime example. Then other games, they stubbornly ran the ball even when it wasn't working. I mentioned a little while ago that I'm starting to wonder if Reich is just a typical conservative head coach and play caller who just goes for it on 4th down more than you'd expect. 

 

Then I go back to 2018, and he seemed to have a great feel for the game, and a good play calling flow. Where Reich ended and Luck began, we can't know. And it helps when Luck is the trigger man... 

 

I will say, I'd like to see our coaching staff help a limited QB overperform, as opposed to just retrenching into a super conservative mode every time the QB makes them nervous.

[Nickster]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Stats aren't everything. They are indicators. I use stats to support my opinion, nothing more. You however seem to brush away even the most simple stats/indicators based on anecdotal spin. Make better, and more logical arguments, instead of "stats don't matter", "stats aren't everything", and "interpretation"... Typically, if your opinion is correct, there will be stats there to support your opinion.

So what is your correct opinion on this? 

 

What simple stats am I denying?

 

 

I'll wait for your replies and anticipate more of your snark.