All Top College QB's are a Roll of the Dice

[Dingus McGirt]

That is, if one expects them to operate in what most think is a traditional pro offense.

 

None of them call plays.  Rarely do any of them work from under center.  Most of them build numbers against inferior competition.  

 

The league is being forced to change because of the spread offenses run by all college coaches.  So, pick one - any one - that has physical skills, mental agility and attitude.  

[Defjamz26]

I’m unclear as to what the point you’re trying to make is.

[OffensivelyPC]

Traits,  scheme and fit all matter. You seem to suggest that because its a crapshoot, it does not matter when or where you pick a QB. That could not be less true. 

 

You should grade prospects relative to the position, come up wiTh a draft board and stick to it. Not, "Oh, we should take a QB here, but it's a crapshoot, so lets go with an easier developing position. Thats madness and ignores the fact that no one is guaranteed success in the NFL.

[DougDew]

A lot of the QBs in the NFL are converting broken plays  into nice gainers.  I think the college Qbs will do that too, and did so this past season if you look at a lot of Burrow's big plays.  Extending the play with their legs.  Personally, I think its a temporary thing in the NFL that's not sustainable.  

[twfish]

36 minutes ago, DougDew said:

A lot of the QBs in the NFL are converting broken plays  into nice gainers.  I think the college Qbs will do that too, and did so this past season if you look at a lot of Burrow's big plays.  Extending the play with their legs.  Personally, I think its a temporary thing in the NFL that's not sustainable.  

To an extent, it has always been helpful for QB's to help extend the plays with moving. But the idea of a highly mobile QB's is not sustainable and is the fad lately. Look at the read option and see how far back it put the 49ers, Panthers, Redskins. The Titans really got lucky that Tannehill has played so well because If they were still starting Mariota they likely would have a losing season. It works great for a handful of years but eventually that player falls to injuries and is never the same. I love Lamar Jackson and he's electrifying but he's an ACL tear away from being a shell of himself and setting that organization back. That is still why a great pocket passing QB is so valuable.

[Dingus McGirt]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’m unclear as to what the point you’re trying to make is.

No longer do teams have to worry about QB playcalling, etc.  Just be fast and have a good arm.  Draft anyone with those two traits.  Soon, all offenses will work in the "line up and everyone look to the sidelines for the playcall, then get into your stance."  The Mannings, Brady's, etc. won't be needed.

[WarGhost21]

I agree with this actually. This class of QBs is relatively weak as is, but only a few even run something similar to a pro-style offense. I think our best bet would be to wait a year, seeing as the 2021 Class is much stronger, but if we do get a QB this year, our best bet would be Eason

[DougDew]

41 minutes ago, twfish said:

To an extent, it has always been helpful for QB's to help extend the plays with moving. But the idea of a highly mobile QB's is not sustainable and is the fad lately. Look at the read option and see how far back it put the 49ers, Panthers, Redskins. The Titans really got lucky that Tannehill has played so well because If they were still starting Mariota they likely would have a losing season. It works great for a handful of years but eventually that player falls to injuries and is never the same. I love Lamar Jackson and he's electrifying but he's an ACL tear away from being a shell of himself and setting that organization back. That is still why a great pocket passing QB is so valuable.

Its not like escapability is something new.

 

Back in the day, Fran Tarkenton had some extendability.  He was a great QB, but he never seems to get included in the group of really great QBs. 

 

Younger folks should check out some of his highlights.

 

He was never injured much, IIRC.

 

Roger Staubach, aka, Roger the Dodger, had some moved too.

 

Those kinds of QBs have always been around.  Some have done well, others not.    Its not important for long term success, IMO, but can be helpful at times.

[Dingus McGirt]

39 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

No longer do teams have to worry about QB playcalling, etc.  Just be fast and have a good arm.  Draft anyone with those two traits.  Soon, all offenses will work in the "line up and everyone look to the sidelines for the playcall, then get into your stance" method. The Mannings, Brady's, etc. won't be needed.

 

[Dingus McGirt]

2 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Traits,  scheme and fit all matter. You seem to suggest that because its a crapshoot, it does not matter when or where you pick a QB. That could not be less true. 

 

You should grade prospects relative to the position, come up wiTh a draft board and stick to it. Not, "Oh, we should take a QB here, but it's a crapshoot, so lets go with an easier developing position. Thats madness and ignores the fact that no one is guaranteed success in the NFL.

Absolutely.  So much of these kid results in college are due to weak non-conference schedules and and the coach.  Ignore the hype.  Draft speed and arm strength.  Stop wasting 1st round picks on "sure things."  Rinse, repeat until a team hits.

[Defjamz26]

47 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

No longer do teams have to worry about QB playcalling, etc.  Just be fast and have a good arm.  Draft anyone with those two traits.  Soon, all offenses will work in the "line up and everyone look to the sidelines for the playcall, then get into your stance."  The Mannings, Brady's, etc. won't be needed.

I disagree with that. While the old school one dimensional pocket passers are fading into extinction, you still need certain skills to be able to succeed. If that was the case, RGIII would still be a starter and basically every college QB would be an NFL starter. Marcus Mariota also lost his starting job so there’s that as well.

 

Things a QB needs to be able to do in 2020:

-Read NFL defenses

-Audible at the line

-Throw on the run

-Run the ball

-Go through progressions

-Occasionally fit the ball into tight windows

-Stand firm in the pocket with pressure coming

-Throw accurately And with timing and anticipation 

 

You can’t just have a big arm and run.

[Dingus McGirt]

1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

I disagree with that. While the old school one dimensional pocket passers are fading into extinction, you still need certain skills to be able to succeed. If that was the case, RGIII would still be a starter and basically every college QB would be an NFL starter. Marcus Mariota also lost his starting job so there’s that as well.

 

Things a QB needs to be able to do in 2020:

-Read NFL defenses

-Audible at the line

-Throw on the run

-Run the ball

-Go through progressions

-Occasionally fit the ball into tight windows

-Stand firm in the pocket with pressure coming

-Throw accurately And with timing and anticipation 

 

You can’t just have a big arm and run.

Hold my beer.  :^)

[MikeCurtis]

3 hours ago, Dingus McGirt said:

That is, if one expects them to operate in what most think is a traditional pro offense.

 

None of them call plays.  Rarely do any of them work from under center.  Most of them build numbers against inferior competition.  

 

The league is being forced to change because of the spread offenses run by all college coaches.  So, pick one - any one - that has physical skills, mental agility and attitude.  

 

Its a CRAPSHOOT at best, a lottery at worst

 

You have to do your homework, but it STILL is a 25-35% endeavor, for round one QBs

 

The QBs DO have to have some "gray matter" to do well in the pros

 

The basic coverages seen in college makes some QBs look so much better than college, but gets them crushed in the pros 

[Dingus McGirt]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Its not like escapability is something new.

 

Back in the day, Fran Tarkenton had some extendability.  He was a great QB, but he never seems to get included in the group of really great QBs. 

 

Younger folks should check out some of his highlights.

 

He was never injured much, IIRC.

 

Roger Staubach, aka, Roger the Dodger, had some moved too.

 

Those kinds of QBs have always been around.  Some have done well, others not.    Its not important for long term success, IMO, but can be helpful at times.

They both called their own plays.  As you know, back in the day, the QB was known as a "field general."

[NewColtsFan]

46 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

Its a CRAPSHOOT at best, a lottery at worst

 

You have to do your homework, but it STILL is a 25-35% endeavor, for round one QBs

 

The QBs DO have to have some "gray matter" to do well in the pros

 

The basic coverages seen in college makes some QBs look so much better than college, but gets them crushed in the pros 

Not sure where you got the 25-35 percent figure?   The number I’ve heard is 50 percent.   So when Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen and Allen we’re coming out, I kept reading that the odds were against two of them making it.  But, which two?

 

Turns out, the best one so far....  Lamar Jackson.   Props to Baltimore. 

[MikeCurtis]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not sure where you got the 25-35 percent figure?   The number I’ve heard is 50 percent.   So when Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen and Allen we’re coming out, I kept reading that the odds were against two of them making it.  But, which two?

 

Turns out, the best one so far....  Lamar Jackson.   Props to Baltimore. 

There are several articles that I have seen.  (Thats why I gave the range)

 

The 25-35% comes from being a QB on a playoff team.

 

I posted it ..... will look it up

 

There was someone else that posted info as well (different writer) that came up with a bit higher percentage, but using different criteria

[MPStack]

11 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not sure where you got the 25-35 percent figure?   The number I’ve heard is 50 percent.   So when Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen and Allen we’re coming out, I kept reading that the odds were against two of them making it.  But, which two?

 

Turns out, the best one so far....  Lamar Jackson.   Props to Baltimore. 

I think that 2018 is pretty good and we’ll see that in about 2 more years. 

 

The only QB, I don’t care for much is Rosen. Unfortunately, he’s been failed 2X. 

[MikeCurtis]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not sure where you got the 25-35 percent figure?   The number I’ve heard is 50 percent.   So when Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen and Allen we’re coming out, I kept reading that the odds were against two of them making it.  But, which two?

 

Turns out, the best one so far....  Lamar Jackson.   Props to Baltimore. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016

 

The writer has a chart of every QB taken midway down.

 

I spitballed the %