BlueShoe's 2019 Post Senior Bowl Colts Mock Draft

[chad72]

33 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I see some special speed in Isabella. If he tests like he says he will, he'll have something Chrebet didn't have.

 

But it's weird because there are certain plays where his speed seems ordinary. Seems to have a serious 6th gear to him.

 

He does have a bit of Wes Welker in him in suddenness and separation, I feel. Similar body type as Wes but faster. Wes was undrafted because of his 4.6 speed but played faster. 

 

Edelman has about 10 lbs on him and clocked 4.5. The combine will determine where Andy will go on Day 2 - rounds 2 or 3, IMO. Cooper Kupp definitely has about 20 lbs on Isabella, so yes I can understand why he is a better blocker and plays far more downs. 

 

It is all about value proposition, whether you view a guy as a 3rd down specialist or someone as a 3 down wide out to play lots of snaps.

 

[BlueShoe]

14 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I think most people think Isabella is a pretty special player. 

 

"I think" also makes it pretty clear that I was stating an opinion. Up further you are so sure of yours that you are betting some guy. I don't see a huge difference.

 

AndI am not sure what history is on your side. Edelman and Welker have been a thing in the NFL a long time. And plenty of team have tried to replicate their success...but none of them have used a Day Two pick to do it (let alone a 2nd round pick...which is where my main disagreement has always been). I guess you could make a weak argument that the LAR did when they drafted Kupp...but Kupp had elite production...best in college football.

 

Ryan Switzer is probably a better example. I think he was actually a better college and a bit more productive WR than Renfrow...and even he was a late 4th round pick. Add that to the other examples of similar types (that I already listed) that went late in the draft...and that is the history that I am using.

 

In a draft class full of trait WRs (most of whom who have far better college production)...I just don't think Renfrow has much chance to go that early (especially the 2nd round)...barring some crazy WR run. But fine...anything can happen.

 

I am not saying that Renfrow will go in the second round, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. I currently have him ranked #66 on my big board. You on the other hand, made absolute statements that he will not. 

 

I think Renfrow is better than Switzer. I had Switzer ranked #113 and he went #133. Switzer was the 19th receiver taken in the 2017 draft. I have Renfrow ranked much higher as he is my 11th ranked receiver in this draft. 

 

Comparing Kupp’s production to Refrow is not apples and oranges. Renfrow has played in an offensive with a lot of talented players that share the ball, and it's a far superior conference. I loved Kupp for his production, but that’s a trait a smaller school kid has to have to get draft recognition. Players from Big time schools in the ACC or SEC don’t need to have nearly the resume. That’s where the actual scouting of the player comes in. 

 

This conversation has already wasted more of my time than I wanted. You have your opinion and I have mine so I am moving on. 

[BlueShoe]

34 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I see some special speed in Isabella. If he tests like he says he will, he'll have something Chrebet didn't have.

 

But it's weird because there are certain plays where his speed seems ordinary. Seems to have a serious 6th gear to him.

 

I agree the Chrebet didn’t have the long speed that I think Isabella has. However the quickness, ability to separate, and just overall build is very similar. Chrebet is the best WR comp for Isabella to me. 

[stitches]

I want to be brave and try to break the mold of comparing a small white dude to other small white dudes, who are much slower than him. 

 

Andy Isabella to me looks MUCH more like Tyreek Hill than he does like Switzer or Edelman or Cooper Kupp... (obligatory clarification - style-wise and traits-wise, I do NOT think he will be as good as Hill) 

[BlueShoe]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

I want to be brave and try to break the mold of comparing a small white dude to other small white dudes, who are much slower than him. 

 

Andy Isabella to me looks MUCH more like Tyreek Hill than he does like Switzer or Edelman or Cooper Kupp... (obligatory - style-wise and traits-wise, I do NOT think he will be as good as Hill) 

 

I agree completely with that statement. In fact on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practice, I compared Isabella to Tyreek Hill. 

[Superman]

13 minutes ago, stitches said:

I want to be brave and try to break the mold of comparing a small white dude to other small white dudes, who are much slower than him. 

 

Andy Isabella to me looks MUCH more like Tyreek Hill than he does like Switzer or Edelman or Cooper Kupp... (obligatory clarification - style-wise and traits-wise, I do NOT think he will be as good as Hill) 

 

I'm on the same wavelength as you, trying not to compare every white slot receiver to other white slot receivers, but most slot receivers are white... 

 

I wanted to make the Hill comparison, but it's a lofty one.

[BlueShoe]

1 hour ago, CozyColt said:

I would be pretty happy if our draft was close to your mock.

 

Wilkins and the rest of the DL guys are going to be impacted a lot by the combine and pro-day numbers like it's common with DL/EDGE. He could got top 15 or we may have the chance to get him. Would be another "boring" pick after nelson this year but probably will be smartest choice.

 

I really like Adderly as a player(i think he has late first potential) but the safety position has been flooded with good and skilled players. The S free-agency is most likely going to be most talented out of all the positions and the draft also will bring multiple good ones. The drop-off between adderley and a safety in the third(f.e. abram from miss. state) or a good free-agent( who will not be that expensive relative to other positions) makes me dislike picking a S top of the second.

 

I agrre with most of the other people hear that ya-sin is  a bit early in the second.

 

Now Renfrow, i think, is a really nice scheme fit in our passing game. He has good reaction time during the snap of the ball. He does a little dip of the shoulder which surprisingly gets him off press cov. quite often( or forced some holds by cbs). He runs all of the short and intermediate routes well. He also understands how much fakes you should put in a route so that you don't make your QB wait a quarter second longer than it's needed( really not a fan of Thielen because he wastes so much time doing dumb fakes in his routes). And although he has tiny hands he catches everything especially on third-down.

That makes him a great fit in franks quick hit offense and with a qb like luck who does lots of 3rd down magic renfrow might be the white tiger for lucks siegfried&roy. 

The pats who run a similar passing scheme are also sitting close behind us and i think they also have their eyes on him so 3rd round might be spot we have to get him.

 

Brailford had a nice senior bowl and might rise higher than that after combine or pro-day but if we get him he has that motor that i love in d-line guys.

 

The rest of the picks might go a round or 2 earlier but who the # knows where players go on day 3. It's total needle and hay at that point.

 

 

 

Nice post!

 

I also think that Renfrow is a scheme fit for us, and I too think the Patriots will have an eye on him as well. I think we can say the same thing about Isabella. However, I have a feeling Isabella is going to go in the second. If Isabella is there in the 3rd then wow, what a gift for us. I hope Ballard pulls the trigger if that situation presents itself.

 

A lot of my picks were made based off the Senior Bowl buzz... some players moved up, and some will continue to move up on my board.

[hoosierhawk]

20 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

The Colts officially have 8 picks in the 2019 NFL draft. However, according to OverTheCap the Colts are projected to receive a 4th round compensatory pick for losing Donte Moncrief in 2018. 

 

I think the Colts needs are EDGE, WR, CB, S, INT-DL, OL, and LB.

 

While the draft overall selections are not set in stone, if OverTheCap is correct on the comp picks then the Colts draft order should be relatively close to the following...

 

*Note - Remember that we also have to take out the Giants (3rd) and Washington (6th) forfeited picks they used in the 2018 supplemental draft.

 

1. 26
2. 34
2. 58
3. 89
4. 128
4. 135
5. 165
6. 200
7. 242

 

Chris Ballard has not minced his words. He told us long ago that building a team is all about the offensive line and the front seven. I believe he will  fortify the trenches early and often in every draft. This draft is front-loaded with EDGE and INT-DL prospects and value at those positions will certainly be there at #26.

 

With the Draft Bowl standouts freshly on our minds, I could envision the draft playing out something like this:

 

BlueShoe's 2019 Post Senior Bowl Colts Mock Draft

 

1. 26 - Christian Wilkins, INT-DL, Clemson
2. 34 - Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware
2. 58 - Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
3. 89 - Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson
4. 128 - Jordan Brailford, EDGE, Oklahoma State
4. 135 - Lonnie Johnson, CB, Kentucky
5. 165 - Terrill Hanks, LB, New Mexico State
6. 200 - Chuma Edoga, OT, USC
7. 242 - Justin Hollins, LB, Oregon

Really like Johnson and Hanks. Like the 1st 2 picks as well. Not a big fan of pick 58,89 and 128 where they were taken.

[stitches]

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm on the same wavelength as you, trying not to compare every white slot receiver to other white slot receivers, but most slot receivers are white... 

 

I wanted to make the Hill comparison, but it's a lofty one.

That's why almost always when I make draft comparisons I try to give the disclaimer that this is a style-traits comparison, rather than expectation of duplicating the success. There are so many additional details and personality traits and levels to the strengths and weaknesses that go into a player turning into a superstar rather than becoming a regular starter or a rotation player... or being out of the league. 

[BlueShoe]

1 hour ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

This is so true. I wish all of the GMs had to turn in their Big Boards after the draft. It would be awesome to see how different each front office views prospects. 

 

The reason teams don't share that information is because they don't want other teams to know who they were looking at. This is very important for immediate UDFA signings, the 53-man roster cut-downs, and most importantly the first free agent window of the players in the draft class. 

 

A lot of times teams will sign a free agent they highly coveted, but wasn't able to draft. The draft process ends for many of us on draft day, but those grades can have meaning to NFL front offices for several years. 

[BlueShoe]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

That's why almost always when I make draft comparisons I try to give the disclaimer that this is a style-traits comparison, rather than expectation of duplicating the success. There are so many additional details and personality traits and levels to the strengths and weaknesses that go into a player turning into a superstar rather than becoming a regular starter or a rotation player... or being out of the league. 

 

I agree completely. 

[#12.]

In doing a Colts mock, I'm surprised people obsess so much over where certain mocks have a player going.  It's pretty clear Ballard doesn't care much about mock drafts.  If you're trying to predict his draft, you probably need to select a few players a round or so higher than mocks have them going.

[Matthew Gilbert]

2 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

The reason teams don't share that information is because they don't want other teams to know who they were looking at. This is very important for immediate UDFA signings, the 53-man roster cut-downs, and most importantly the first free agent window of the players in the draft class. 

 

A lot of times teams will sign a free agent they highly coveted, but wasn't able to draft. The draft process ends for many of us on draft day, but those grades can have meaning to NFL front offices for several years. 

Oh yea I know why they would never do it. I just wish they would.

[Bluefire4]

Jordan Brailford was awesome in the East-West Shrine game and I cannot wait to look more into his tape in the near future.

 

If Hunter Renfrow goes in the 3rd round it would show just how important events like the Senior Bowl and Combine really are to a player's draft stock. I'm just now starting to review receivers so I will reserve my judgment until then. 

[shasta519]

4 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I am not saying that Renfrow will go in the second round, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. I currently have him ranked #66 on my big board. You on the other hand, made absolute statements that he will not. 

 

I think Renfrow is better than Switzer. I had Switzer ranked #113 and he went #133. Switzer was the 19th receiver taken in the 2017 draft. I have Renfrow ranked much higher as he is my 11th ranked receiver in this draft. 

 

Comparing Kupp’s production to Refrow is not apples and oranges. Renfrow has played in an offensive with a lot of talented players that share the ball, and it's a far superior conference. I loved Kupp for his production, but that’s a trait a smaller school kid has to have to get draft recognition. Players from Big time schools in the ACC or SEC don’t need to have nearly the resume. That’s where the actual scouting of the player comes in. 

 

This conversation has already wasted more of my time than I wanted. You have your opinion and I have mine so I am moving on. 

 

Fair enough...no more Renfrow talk.

 

But while we are on the subject of smaller WRs...what are your thoughts on Dortch? I watched some of him last night...and he looks like he could be special. Not sure about routes (lots of slants, deep posts and screens what I saw)...but he is so electric and seems to catch damn well.

 

Assuming Rogers is gone (probably more like than not)...the Colts should be addressing the returner position this offseason...Dortch would certainly fit. 

 

I also like that he's only going to be 21 next year...and might have a chip on his shoulder from being passed over by so many teams.

[BlueShoe]

1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

 

Fair enough...no more Renfrow talk.

 

But while we are on the subject of smaller WRs...what are your thoughts on Dortch? I watched some of him last night...and he looks like he could be special. Not sure about routes (lots of slants, deep posts and screens what I saw)...but he is so electric and seems to catch damn well.

 

Assuming Rogers is gone (probably more like than not)...the Colts should be addressing the returner position this offseason...Dortch would certainly fit. 

 

I also like that he's only going to be 21 next year...and might have a chip on his shoulder from being passed over by so many teams.

 

I think there are a lot of really good small receivers in this draft. I currently have Greg Dortch ranked at #168 overall. Like most of my rankings, that is an early skimmed assessment. I haven't thoroughly evaluated all 956 prospects on my board.  

 

The game is changing a lot and the NFL is heading toward the direction where speed is more important than size. There are a lot of reasons I think this is happening, but I can table that conversation for another topic. It's a snowball effect that could get rather long-winded. 

 

We have heard the tone from GMs change drastically over the past few months. GM's are looking at 2 important traits now; speed and can they play....

[boo2202]

21 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I think there are a lot of really good small receivers in this draft. I currently have Greg Dortch ranked at #168 overall. Like most of my rankings, that is an early skimmed assessment. I haven't thoroughly evaluated all 956 prospects on my board.  

 

The game is changing a lot and the NFL is heading toward the direction where speed is more important than size. There are a lot of reasons I think this is happening, but I can table that conversation for another topic. It's a snowball effect that could get rather long-winded. 

 

We have heard the tone from GMs change drastically over the past few months. GM's are looking at 2 important traits now; speed and can they play....

Could you post a list of your top 10 WR’s for this class? You’ve seemed to have studied the group pretty throughly. I’ve got a few I like but haven’t done enough film watching yet.

[BlueShoe]

4 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

Could you post a list of your top 10 WR’s for this class? You’ve seemed to have studied the group pretty throughly. I’ve got a few I like but haven’t done enough film watching yet.

 

I will do better than that for you. Don't hold me to these rankings, because I have a long way to go before they are final, but here is every receiver on my board right now (including the current "penciled in" ranking I have for each):

 

31. Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina
33. Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
34. D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
37. A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss
38. N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
42. Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State
47. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford
51. Andy Isabella, WR, UMass
62. Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia
64. Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
66. Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson
84. Emanuel Hall, WR, Missouri
90. David Sills V, WR, West Virginia
99. Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State
100. Anthony Johnson, WR, Buffalo
102. DaMarkus Lodge, WR, Ole Miss
109. Terry Godwin II, WR, Georgia
114. Stanley Morgan Jr., WR, Nebraska
116. KeeSean Johnson, WR, Fresno State
129. Lil'Jordan Humphrey, WR, Texas
131. Jakobi Meyers, WR, NC State
142. Anthony Ratliff-Williams, WR, North Carolina
145. Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State
147. Mecole Hardman, WR, Georgia
163. Keelan Doss, WR, UC Davis
166. Antoine Wesley, WR, Texas Tech
168. Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest
172. Darius Slayton, WR, Auburn
183. Tyre Brady, WR, Marshall
190. Penny Hart, WR, Georgia State
208. Dillon Mitchell, WR, Oregon
210. Cody Thompson, WR, Toledo
225. Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor
230. Travis Fulgham, WR, Old Dominion
232. Alex Wesley, WR, Northern Colorado
233. Gary Jennings Jr., WR, West Virginia
238. Jamal Custis, WR, Syracuse
246. Felton Davis III, WR, Michigan State
259. Emmanuel Butler, WR, Northern Arizona
260. Preston Williams, WR, Colorado State
278. Miles Boykin, WR, Notre Dame
289. Ryan Davis, WR, Auburn
290. Johnnie Dixon, WR, Ohio State
298. John Ursua, WR, Hawai'i
305. Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville
347. Tony Pollard, WR, Memphis
348. Jovon Durante, WR, Florida Atlantic
355. Tyron Johnson, WR, Oklahoma State
369. Olabisi Johnson, WR, Colorado State
373. Jazz Ferguson, WR, Northwestern State
383. Jonathan Duhart, WR, Old Dominion
385. Nyqwan Murray, WR, Florida State
400. Shawn Poindexter, WR, Arizona
405. Jesper Horsted, WR, Princeton
413. Terry Wright, WR, Purdue
428. Juwann Winfree, WR, Colorado
433. Deandre Thompkins, WR, Penn State
448. KaVontae Turpin, WR, TCU
474. Ventell Bryant, WR, Temple
482. Dredrick Snelson, WR, UCF
486. Trenton Irwin, WR, Stanford
498. Brody Oliver, WR, Colorado Mines
505. Jalen Guyton, WR, North Texas
508. Shun Brown, WR, Arizona
509. Trevon Brown, WR, East Carolina
521. Flynn Nagel, WR, Northwestern
523. Nick Westbrook, WR, Indiana
528. Xavier Ubosi, WR, UAB
530. Steven Sims, WR, Kansas
553. Cortrelle Simpson, WR, Richmond
567. Ashton Dulin, WR, Malone
738. Tyre McCants, WR, South Florida
770. Mykel Traylor-Bennett, WR, Akron
776. Jody Fortson Jr, WR, Valdosta State
786. Quinn McElfresh, WR, Mississippi Valley State
793. Stephen Louis, WR, NC State
801. Marquise Irvin, WR, Mercer
802. Matthew Eaton, WR, Iowa State
803. Ron'Quavion Tarver, WR, Utah State
805. Charles Holland, WR, Tiffin
806. Delane Hart-Johnson, WR, New Mexico
810. Kaian Duverger, WR, UVA-Wise
813. Jason Moore, WR, Findlay
826. Aaron Blockmon, WR, Campbell
827. A.J. Richardson, WR, Boise State
828. Tevin Isom, WR, West Georgia
832. Ryeshene Bronson, WR, South Florida
845. Dorian Baker, WR, Kentucky
846. Jaelan Austin, WR, TCU
847. Jauan Jennings, WR, Tennessee
848. Workpeh Kofa, WR, Charlotte
867. Deondre Douglas, WR, Troy
877. Floyd Allen, WR, Ole Miss
878. Johnathan Boone, WR, New Mexico State
879. Luke Timian, WR, Indiana
880. Michael Walker, WR, Boston College
885. Kerr Johnson Jr., WR, Kansas
886. Ryan Schadler, WR, Kansas
888. Marcus Green, WR, Louisiana Monroe
903. Jeff Smith, WR, Boston College
904. Johnathan Lloyd, WR, Duke
905. Prince Gray, WR, Jacksonville
906. Terren Encalade, WR, Tulane
907. Teddy Veal, WR, Louisiana Tech
911. Jon'Vea Johnson, WR, Toledo
912. Sean Modster, WR, Boise State
928. Damion Jeanpiere, WR, Nicholls
929. Malcolm Williams, WR, Coastal Carolina
930. C.J. Worton, WR, Florida International
936. Chico McClatcher, WR, Washington
937. Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo
946. Demetris Anderson, WR, Kentucky State
949. Isaiah Harper, WR, Old Dominion
950. Kwadarrius Smith, WR, Akron
951. Deonte Harris, WR, Assumption
952. Nehari Crawford, WR, Duquesne
953. Scott Miller, WR, Bowling Green
954. T.J. Rahming, WR, Duke
955. Robert Lewis, WR, Washington State
956. Papi White, WR, Ohio
 

[DougDew]

Great work, but why would you go so far as to rank WR #956?  LOL.

[BlueShoe]

18 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Great work, but why would you go so far as to rank WR #956?  LOL.

 

Thanks.

 

There are a lot of reasons.... Short version... The draft process basically enters the players into my NFL Player database. My goal is to have every player who will ever play in the NFL in my database.

[Clem-Dog]

2 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Thanks.

 

There are a lot of reasons.... Short version... The draft process basically enters the players into my NFL Player database. My goal is to have every player who will ever play in the NFL in my database.

 

You are extremely thorough BlueShoe.  Do you think NFL GMs rank 956 players (which equates to roughly 28 rounds)?  I'd be lucky to effectively rank 50 players right now lol.

 

Thanks for the content. 

[BlueShoe]

7 minutes ago, Clem-Dog said:

 

You are extremely thorough BlueShoe.  Do you think NFL GMs rank 956 players (which equates to roughly 28 rounds)?  I'd be lucky to effectively rank 50 players right now lol.

 

Thanks for the content. 

 

Thank you. 

 

I think the scouts start out with about 2,000 prospects or so. Over the course of the college season the scouts report back to the front office and narrow the focus down to about 250 players or so. I think that’s when the GM gets deeply involved in the process.

 

By the time the draft rolls around, I think each team really only has 100 or so draftable players on their boards. They will list a lot more on the board (war room walls), but that’s mainly to keep track of the players other teams are selecting.