McShay's First 2018 Big Board (Top 32)

[NewColtsFan]

 

So....     it's a premium article and I can't link...

 

But I think I can share some information.

 

Confirming what most know here....   a GREAT class of DL's....  11 of the 32 are either DE's or DT's....     Wowza!

 

And it starts at the top....    these are their ranks...

 

1.     Ed Oliver    DT     Houston

2.     Nick Bosa   DE     Ohio St

3.     R.   Gary      DE    Michigan   (I can see some teams viewing Gary as a DT)

4.    D.  Lawrence  DT   Clemson   (He's the monster; 340 pounds)

5.    C. Wilkins      DT    Clemson   (He's the 3-tech next to Lawrence)

8.    R. Davis         DT     Alabama 

11   C. Ferrell       DE    Clemson

12   D. Brown      DT    Auburn

13   Zack Allen    DE    Bost College

22.   M. Sweat      DE    Miss St.

31    I.  Buggs       DL    Alabama

 

As for some other positions:

 

QB  (just two)

16.   R. Finley     NC St.

21    N. Stanley   Iowa

 

OT  (4)

7.    G. Little     Ole Miss

10   J. Williams    Alabama

15.  T. Adams       Washington

20.  D. Ewards     Wisc

 

RB  (3)

14.  B. Love       Stanford

24.  D. Harris    Alabama

26.  R. Anderson   Okla

 

WR  (4)

18   N. NEAL      ASU

19        Brown     Miss

28   D. Samuel    S. Carol

30       Brown      Okla

 

That's all I feel comfortable with....    this should start good discussions....    I think it's looking like an above average draft....   Nice for the Colts.

 

[richard pallo]

By the looks of this list all of the top ER's will be gone when we pick.  Brissett will definitely be traded and our 1st. pick will most likely be a OT or a WR.   I don't see us having a top 15 pick.  

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, richard pallo said:

By the looks of this list all of the top ER's will be gone when we pick.  Brissett will definitely be traded and our 1st. pick will most likely be a OT or a WR.   I don't see us having a top 15 pick.  

 

I think you're reading WAY too much into this.     This is only the first projection of the first round by one guy.     We've run maybe a 1/2 mile out of a marathon.      And I didn't even list all 32 guys.   

 

And it's not even clear we would take a DE with our first round pick.    We might take a DT.    I don't know which.    But as long as it's one of them,  I'm good with this.

 

I think the chances of the Colts taking a OT or a WR in the first round are very small.    An OT would make FOUR lineman taken in the first round.     I don't see that happening.

 

And as I've written about extensively now,  even yesterday in another thread,   there is almost no value in a first round WR.   Six of the last 7 drafts,  the vast majority of WR's taken in the first round are mostly below average to busts.    This is league-wide,  not just a Colts thing.   The only draft that is the exception is the 2014 draft with Beckham for starters.   It's an eye popping first round.     All the rest of the drafts, are somewhere between Meh on the high side,  to bust on the low side.

 

Don't see us going offense in the first round.    And if I had my wish, we wouldn't go offense until Day 3.    But, I'm putting the cart before the horse....     All I'm saying is that's it's very early in the process...     this is just a conversation starter...

 

 

[richard pallo]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think you're reading WAY too much into this.     This is only the first projection of the first round by one guy.     We've run maybe a 1/2 mile out of a marathon.      And I didn't even list all 32 guys.   

 

And it's not even clear we would take a DE with our first round pick.    We might take a DT.    I don't know which.    But as long as it's one of them,  I'm good with this.

 

I think the chances of the Colts taking a OT or a WR in the first round are very small.    An OT would make FOUR lineman taken in the first round.     I don't see that happening.

 

And as I've written about extensively now,  even yesterday in another thread,   there is almost no value in a first round WR.   Six of the last 7 drafts,  the vast majority of WR's taken in the first round are mostly below average to busts.    This is league-wide,  not just a Colts thing.   The only draft that is the exception is the 2014 draft with Beckham for starters.   It's an eye popping first round.     All the rest of the drafts, are somewhere between Meh on the high side,  to bust on the low side.

 

Don't see us going offense in the first round.    And if I had my wish, we wouldn't go offense until Day 3.    But, I'm putting the cart before the horse....     All I'm saying is that's it's very early in the process...     this is just a conversation starter...

 

 

Exactly.  That's all I did. 

[stitches]

Yeah, it's too early but this coming class looks stacked and stacked at positions that matter most(out of QBs). IMO it might be the best OT class in the last 5 years or so, it looks like a great D-line class too. IMO McShay is way off on the QBs, Herbert will probably be taken ahead of both Finley and Stanley, but oh well... still early. 

 

I don't like the RB class so far, but I like Anderson from Oklahoma the best from the few I've watched. 

 

I like the potential of the WR class. I think it will be better than the last several years. There are legit WR1 types of receivers. 

 

I haven't watched any of the CBs so I will refrain from commenting on them. 

[stitches]

BTW I can absolutely see us taking a WR in round 1 if most of the good linemen are taken. This is another reason the Cain's injury sucks. IMO he has high end upside and we could have been more comfortable going forward with him if he would have had a great season and now we wouldn't know either way whether he will be good or not and we will need to get a high end receiver next year whether in the draft or in FA IMO. 

[DaColts85]

With this being so early things will obviously change a lot. Looking at everything now thought I would say both d-line and o-line look like a very strong area. Should be some strong LB's as well. Secondary looks a little weak to this point but I am sure some guys will start to shine soon. WR's look to be strong this year but I would not spend a 1st round on this position. I would look at anything defensive for this draft as their is some strong talent. I am also hoping we go out and are able to get a few key guys in FA. I know this is a broken record but with over 100 million with carry over we will be able to grab a few guys. They do not even have to be the huge names but please grab some talent. I think we keep AC and look to add a Guard or Tackle since so far Howard is not panning out and Smith could play either or, looking mainly at a RG position I hope though. Hope to be a very fun 2019 though.

16 hours ago, richard pallo said:

By the looks of this list all of the top ER's will be gone when we pick.  Brissett will definitely be traded and our 1st. pick will most likely be a OT or a WR.   I don't see us having a top 15 pick.  

Why the assumption of a guarantee trade of Brissett? 

[richard pallo]

43 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

With this being so early things will obviously change a lot. Looking at everything now thought I would say both d-line and o-line look like a very strong area. Should be some strong LB's as well. Secondary looks a little weak to this point but I am sure some guys will start to shine soon. WR's look to be strong this year but I would not spend a 1st round on this position. I would look at anything defensive for this draft as their is some strong talent. I am also hoping we go out and are able to get a few key guys in FA. I know this is a broken record but with over 100 million with carry over we will be able to grab a few guys. They do not even have to be the huge names but please grab some talent. I think we keep AC and look to add a Guard or Tackle since so far Howard is not panning out and Smith could play either or, looking mainly at a RG position I hope though. Hope to be a very fun 2019 though.

Why the assumption of a guarantee trade of Brissett? 

With only two QB's listed in McShay's top 32 and none being a top 15 pick I think Brissett's value will soar.  As long as Luck get's through the season okay I can see Ballard trading Brissett and we sign another veteran QB to be the backup.  I think more than one team is going to want him and Ballard will score a high round pick in return.  

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

With this being so early things will obviously change a lot. Looking at everything now thought I would say both d-line and o-line look like a very strong area. Should be some strong LB's as well. Secondary looks a little weak to this point but I am sure some guys will start to shine soon. WR's look to be strong this year but I would not spend a 1st round on this position. I would look at anything defensive for this draft as their is some strong talent. I am also hoping we go out and are able to get a few key guys in FA. I know this is a broken record but with over 100 million with carry over we will be able to grab a few guys. They do not even have to be the huge names but please grab some talent. I think we keep AC and look to add a Guard or Tackle since so far Howard is not panning out and Smith could play either or, looking mainly at a RG position I hope though. Hope to be a very fun 2019 though.

Why the assumption of a guarantee trade of Brissett? 

 

Because, next year,  Brissett will have more value to the Colts in a trade than he will as a backup.

 

If we don't trade him by the end of the 2019 draft,  then we're committed to him and we have a good chance to lose him in 2020.     He'll want to go somewhere we has a shot to start.    And unless Luck gets hurt AGAIN,   he's got no shot to start in Indy.

 

So, we can trade Brissett,  get a decent pick,   and sign a veteran QB as his replacement in Free Agency.

 

The long shot scenario...   is that Brissett is willing to sign long-term as Luck's back-up at good back-up money,   and maybe we trade Jacoby somewhere down the road.    I think that's possible,   but not very likely.

 

[DaColts85]

3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

With only two QB's listed in McShay's top 32 and none being a top 15 pick I think Brissett's value will soar.  As long as Luck get's through the season okay I can see Ballard trading Brissett and we sign another veteran QB to be the backup.  I think more than one team is going to want him and Ballard will score a high round pick in return.  

QB's move up and down the board as the year goes on.  Happens every year. Teams always reach on potential as well. Brissett is a solid QB in my eyes but one key thing is after sitting a whole year (hopefully) teams will not place a high value on him. If we trade him we are not going to get some high pick.  Plus I see Ballard keeping him since he will still be under an easy to manage contract.

[DaColts85]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Because, next year,  Brissett will have more value to the Colts in a trade than he will as a backup.

 

If we don't trade him by the end of the 2019 draft,  then we're committed to him and we have a good chance to lose him in 2020.     He'll want to go somewhere we has a shot to start.    And unless Luck gets hurt AGAIN,   he's got no shot to start in Indy.

 

So, we can trade Brissett,  get a decent pick,   and sign a veteran QB as his replacement in Free Agency.

 

The long shot scenario...   is that Brissett is willing to sign long-term as Luck's back-up at good back-up money,   and maybe we trade Jacoby somewhere down the road.    I think that's possible,   but not very likely.

 

I would agree to disagree honestly. We have an easy contract with him. If a team approaches and offers something very good then yes all options would be open. We also have a good backup that Ballard has mentioned he loves having. If Luck stays healthy this year and Brissett does not play at all then the value for him actually drops a little. Out of sigh out of mind. A team could still see some potential but teams like the Jets are experiencing this right now with a Teddy Bridgewater. No true value because teams got their guys. The draft will still produce guys that the few teams in need will go after. Is there a potential for trade yes, this is likely with a lot of teams and players but with this I see us riding it out honestly. If he leaves in FA then hopefully it adds back a comp pick in the  long run.

[richard pallo]

13 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

QB's move up and down the board as the year goes on.  Happens every year. Teams always reach on potential as well. Brissett is a solid QB in my eyes but one key thing is after sitting a whole year (hopefully) teams will not place a high value on him. If we trade him we are not going to get some high pick.  Plus I see Ballard keeping him since he will still be under an easy to manage contract.

Teams do reach all the time.  But Brissett is young and has proven he can play and start.  That's a huge difference from a rookie and not a top rated one at that.  As long as Luck stays healthy I think Ballard is going to get more than one offer he can't refuse.  He can help us acquire a high round pick and accelerate the rebuild.  I don't see him waiting two years to move him.  Besides the college QB market in two years will probably be stronger and Brissett will be two years older.   You move him when we have the advantage and that will be after the current season.

[NewColtsFan]

9 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

I would agree to disagree honestly. We have an easy contract with him. If a team approaches and offers something very good then yes all options would be open. We also have a good backup that Ballard has mentioned he loves having. If Luck stays healthy this year and Brissett does not play at all then the value for him actually drops a little. Out of sigh out of mind. A team could still see some potential but teams like the Jets are experiencing this right now with a Teddy Bridgewater. No true value because teams got their guys. The draft will still produce guys that the few teams in need will go after. Is there a potential for trade yes, this is likely with a lot of teams and players but with this I see us riding it out honestly. If he leaves in FA then hopefully it adds back a comp pick in the  long run.

 

So...   you’d rather have one more year of Brissett and then lose him for NOTHING when his contract is up in 2020 than trade Jacoby and get a 3 or a 4 to build with?

 

Not me.   I’ll take the pick to buikd for the future.   An easy call for me.

 

 

 

[DaColts85]

9 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

So...   you’d rather have one more year of Brissett and then lose him for NOTHING when his contract is up in 2020 than trade Jacoby and get a 3 or a 4 to build with?

 

Not me.   I’ll take the pick to buikd for the future.   An easy call for me.

 

 

 

See the problem here is you are not Ballard. I would gladly take a high pick for him. Ballard even mentioned he passed on this very thing already. The key market for Brissett is right now. Again, next year if a great offer is there ok. I am just saying I do not see it happening.

[DaColts85]

13 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Teams do reach all the time.  But Brissett is young and has proven he can play and start.  That's a huge difference from a rookie and not a top rated one at that.  As long as Luck stays healthy I think Ballard is going to get more than one offer he can't refuse.  He can help us acquire a high round pick and accelerate the rebuild.  I don't see him waiting two years to move him.  Besides the college QB market in two years will probably be stronger and Brissett will be two years older.   You move him when we have the advantage and that will be after the current season.

I agree with you. They do not reach all the time, and history has shown that each year you have a hand full of QB's that move up the board who then become the guy that the few QB hungry teams look at. We are not talking half the league here. Now I will say like I told NCF if the trade is there I am not against it I just do not see it happening. 

 

Also, your last comment is what helps my argument. Each year the young QB's coming into the league are there for the taking. Brissett would be solid to move now. After sitting a whole year teams will be looking but still have the chance of a young guy. Plus, the young guy just like Brissett is a risk. One year of experience is not making Brissett a sure thing by any means after a trade or FA contract...let's look at the many back-ups that help this point.  

[jskinnz]

28 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

See the problem here is you are not Ballard. I would gladly take a high pick for him. Ballard even mentioned he passed on this very thing already. The key market for Brissett is right now. Again, next year if a great offer is there ok. I am just saying I do not see it happening.

 

So are you Ballard?

[DaColts85]

9 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

So are you Ballard?

Yes

 

I should mention I am joking here lol some take things very serious

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

See the problem here is you are not Ballard. I would gladly take a high pick for him. Ballard even mentioned he passed on this very thing already. The key market for Brissett is right now. Again, next year if a great offer is there ok. I am just saying I do not see it happening.

 Just because Ballard passed on trading Brissett before,  doesn’t  mean he’ll never trade him.

 

I  told other posters who wanted Ballard to trade a Brissett earlier this year that Ballard likely wouldn’t.   Why?   Because we didn’t know enough about Luck to trade Jacoby this year.  Brissett was too valuable.

 

But 6-10 months from now we’ll have a much better idea about Luck and his health.   At that point, Ballard will have plenty of money to sign another backup QBs and clear the way to trade Brissett and get a pick or two in return.   This maximizes value. 

 

Just thinking out loud.... 

 

[aReggie7]

A lot can change between now and April but i'm pretty excited at how good the top of the draft is looking for defensive linemen. Ed Oliver in particular seems like he would be a great fit for the Colts. There are also some good offensive tackle prospects which I wouldn't rule out for the Colts.

 

I'm interested to see how the linebacker depth for this draft turns out. I think that will be important for the Colts to address.

 

 

[HarryTheCat]

19 hours ago, ar7 said:

A lot can change between now and April but i'm pretty excited at how good the top of the draft is looking for defensive linemen. Ed Oliver in particular seems like he would be a great fit for the Colts. There are also some good offensive tackle prospects which I wouldn't rule out for the Colts.

 

I'm interested to see how the linebacker depth for this draft turns out. I think that will be important for the Colts to address.

 

 

The problem with Ed Oliver is that he's also a great fit for a lot of other teams, and will likely go in the first five picks or so. With Luck back to form for 16 games, the Colts should be drafting no higher than the middle of the first round. If Luck has another serious injury, and the Colts have another 4-win (or less) season, that top pick would probably be spent on a QB. 

[Luck 4 president]

I could see us drafting an OT or a CB day 1

[shasta519]

The fact that Gary will likely be the #3 pick at best makes this class loaded with DL talent. Gary is likely the (non-QB) #1 pick in any other draft. That guy is a stud...and a perfect fit for this defense.

 

Would love to package Brissett and the Colts 1st round pick (depending on where it is) to move up and grab Gary.

[NewColtsFan]

On 8/19/2018 at 8:58 AM, Luck 4 president said:

I could see us drafting an OT or a CB day 1

 

 

Rememeber, Ballard has already said this defense does not require a premium player at corner.

 

So, I think the odds of using a 1st round pick on a corner -- espeically at such an early stage of his building his program -- are close to zero.

 

Offensive Tackle is another story....

 

But I think the odds are overwhelming that he's taking a defensive lineman.    The only question would be end or tackle?     And if not a D-lineman,  then perhaps a linebacker.

 

[Matthew Gilbert]

On ‎8‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 4:55 PM, NewColtsFan said:

Because, next year,  Brissett will have more value to the Colts in a trade than he will as

Brissett's value is at it's highest right now. Rookie contract with one more year of control.

[NewColtsFan]

14 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Brissett's value is at it's highest right now. Rookie contract with one more year of control.

 

I understand...    a team trading for him now would have him for two more years .   That’s year and next.

 

But....

 

The Colts need Brissett this year.   He’s insurance for Luck.

 

Next year we can trade Brissett and sign a QB in free agency to be the new backup.

 

I don’t see Brissett re-signing with the Colts unless Luck flames out and JB is the new starter.   Otherwise he’ll go elsewhere to be a starter for another team.

 

We can’t end up getting nothing for Brissett.

 

[Matthew Gilbert]

8 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

We can’t end up getting nothing for Brissett.

I can't see the Colts getting nothing for Brissett. I still don't think his stock is going to get much higher than it is at the moment. If they trade him at this time next year, his value may be at best a 2nd rounder. Right now with the right team and the right circumstances(maybe an injury to Phillip Rivers or something to that nature), he could possibly garner a 1st rounder. 

[Matthew Gilbert]

On ‎8‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 9:00 AM, stitches said:

IMO McShay is way off on the QBs, Herbert will probably be taken ahead of both Finley and Stanley, but oh well... still early. 

My thoughts exactly! I'm not sure if McShay is going against the grain here because it's so early in the process and he wants to be different ? Or are his eyes just due for a check up? 

[stitches]

42 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

My thoughts exactly! I'm not sure if McShay is going against the grain here because it's so early in the process and he wants to be different ? Or are his eyes just due for a check up? 

It's too early in the process. IMO he still hasn't watched most of them seriously(neither have I for whatever it's worth) and probably still hasn't heard a lot about what teams are thinking. With time and new information incoming things crystallize more and more. I am not holding it against him by any means... It's not totally unbelievable that he turns out right on this one. But my personal opinion is that Herbert probably goes higher than those two. 

[Matthew Gilbert]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's too early in the process. IMO he still hasn't watched most of them seriously(neither have I for whatever it's worth) and probably still hasn't heard a lot about what teams are thinking. With time and new information incoming things crystallize more and more. I am not holding it against him by any means... It's not totally unbelievable that he turns out right on this one. But my personal opinion is that Herbert probably goes higher than those two. 

I pretty much agree with everything you said but I do think he was watched a good chunk of film on the QBs. All those QBs have a whole season in front of them to be evaluated as well. 

[Matthew Gilbert]

On ‎8‎/‎16‎/‎2018 at 7:55 PM, NewColtsFan said:

5.    C. Wilkins      DT    Clemson   (He's the 3-tech next to Lawrence)

Scouts have been all over the place lately with this guy. Some have moved him to a 3rd round ground.