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The Offseason Reading Series #1: The greatest Indianapolis Colts team ever


21isSuperman
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5 minutes ago, indyagent17 said:

yep, I will never forgive Garcon for dropping an easy and huge gain when were up 10-0. I started to fall apart from there. And the huge hit to the head Manning took just before the pick six to Tracy Porter. The next year Bounty gate came out the next year.  Its it said Saturday told Manning to stop and take time out when he saw Manning's eyes after that hit

We made the dumbest mistakes in that SB, we basically gave the game away. Give up an onside kick to start the 2nd Half, had a miss FG, and Peyton with a Pick 6. That game was very much in doubt only down 24-17 late and Peyton had us in Saints territory before the pick. When I chatted over at ESPN, most Saints fans thought the game was going into to OT once the Colts got in Saints territory. They were even shocked Peyton threw that pass.

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29 minutes ago, indyagent17 said:

yep, I will never forgive Garcon for dropping an easy and huge gain when were up 10-0. It started to fall apart from there. And the huge hit to the head Manning took just before the pick six to Tracy Porter and bounty gate came out the next year.  Its it said Saturday told Manning to stop and take time out when he saw Manning's eyes after that hit

Garcon was huge, injuries to AV and Freeney hurt us but were unavoidable, i hate hank baskett, i also thought after the goal line stand before halftime we'd go right down the field in 2 min drill and make it 17-3 or at least 13-3, instead we ran w donald brown a few times, punted, and let them hit a fg as time expired to make it 10-6. didn't play to win, played to not lose.

 

I was at that game, and walked out of the stadium after the porter pick six.

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2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Really a bad decision not go for 16-0, the team was so close and Polian just ripped it away from the team and fans. People were ripping him so bad on his radio show for a few days that the radio show had to quit taking phone calls. I was so upset I considered boycotting the Playoffs at that point myself. Not sure why he thought it was wise to not go for that, that is a once in a lifetime thing if you are lucky to go 16-0.

I'm with you 100%.  I felt like we were riding a high at 14-0 and then Curtis Painter threw the ball behind himself for an interceptionfumblesafteytouchdown

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1 minute ago, bradgt04 said:

I'm with you 100%.  I felt like we were riding a high at 14-0 and then Curtis Painter threw the ball behind himself for an interceptionfumblesafteytouchdown

Yeah Painter was BAD! That was so disappointing to watch us just flush 14-0 down the toilet. Ever since then I haven't been a Polian fan at all. Polian tried to justify why he did it but to me it was nonsense. I can see resting guys to avoid injury if you are 13-1 but not 14-0.

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3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah Painter was BAD! That was so disappointing to watch us just flush 14-0 down the toilet. Ever since then I haven't been a Polian fan at all. Polian tried to justify why he did it but to me it was nonsense. I can see resting guys to avoid injury if you are 13-1 but not 14-0.

I don't think they ever said why they didn't want to pursue 16-0,  did they?  I don't even remember anyone on the team calling the FO out or just making a comment about it.

  I think it was because they (FO) considered the fact they could lose somewhere in the playoffs (every team should know they can lose a game as easily as they could win a game).  If they did then they wouldn't have to hear people putting them in the same conversation as the 07 patriots... like some kind of evil karma.  Or they thought that 16-0 would put way too much pressure on Manning.  At that point it's either Super Bowl or go home.

 

whatever the case I was still disappointed lol

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1 minute ago, bradgt04 said:

I don't think they ever said why they didn't want to pursue 16-0,  did they?  I don't even remember anyone on the team calling the FO out or just making a comment about it.

  I think it was because they (FO) considered the fact they could lose somewhere in the playoffs (every team should know they can lose a game as easily as they could win a game).  If they did then they wouldn't have to hear people putting them in the same conversation as the 07 patriots... like some kind of evil karma.  Or they thought that 16-0 would put way too much pressure on Manning.  At that point it's either Super Bowl or go home.

 

whatever the case I was still disappointed lol

Sad thing of it was, we kept Freeney in against the Jets in the AFC Title Game when the game was over basically. Then he messes up his ankle. That really made things look worse.

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4 minutes ago, bradgt04 said:

I don't think they ever said why they didn't want to pursue 16-0,  did they?  I don't even remember anyone on the team calling the FO out or just making a comment about it.

  I think it was because they (FO) considered the fact they could lose somewhere in the playoffs (every team should know they can lose a game as easily as they could win a game).  If they did then they wouldn't have to hear people putting them in the same conversation as the 07 patriots... like some kind of evil karma.  Or they thought that 16-0 would put way too much pressure on Manning.  At that point it's either Super Bowl or go home.

 

whatever the case I was still disappointed lol

Polian said he didn't want to risk injury to Peyton and others is why we pulled everyone. He got blasted on our local radio show.

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13 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Sad thing of it was, we kept Freeney in against the Jets in the AFC Title Game when the game was over basically. Then he messes up his ankle. That really made things look worse.

The whole thing is making me mad 7-8 years later lol

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12 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Polian said he didn't want to risk injury to Peyton and others is why we pulled everyone. He got blasted on our local radio show.

Well...damnit! I stand corrected.  I really like my "conspiracy" theory I conjured up though.  

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On 2/13/2017 at 11:10 AM, 21isSuperman said:

The thing that kept me from thinking the 2006 team would be the best was how poorly the defense played in the regular season.  That 2006 team had one of the worst defenses to win the Super Bowl, and one of the worst run defenses of all time.  I figured the defense was so bad, that it might be that team's downfall despite winning the Super Bowl that year.  But their performance in the playoffs was so good that it made up for it.

 

Two very different defenses once Bobby came to our aid.  Had he not gotten healthy for the playoffs I seriously doubt that we would have beaten Baltimore let alone the Patriots.  Hell, maybe not even KC.

 

It was a little confusing for us Colts fans who had been watching "the sieve" all year long.

Great post by the way.  I enjoy this sort of thing.... "little sigma tilde" should be your new handle.

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50 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Polian said he didn't want to risk injury to Peyton and others is why we pulled everyone. He got blasted on our local radio show.

 

Yep, losing Bennet before the playoffs when he was in Buffalo gave Polian an illness that seemed to never heal.

 

I hated it personally.... not so much giving up the 16-0 opportunity, but sitting players who PLAY football for a living.  Competitors want to compete and I always felt they lost timing and momentum when they sat out.  Even a recent polishing becomes dull quickly..... just me.  

 

Belicheck didn't sit his guys... they push through and do what they do- usually that means win.

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1 hour ago, BR-549 said:

 

Two very different defenses once Bobby came to our aid.  Had he not gotten healthy for the playoffs I seriously doubt that we would have beaten Baltimore let alone the Patriots.  Hell, maybe not even KC.

 

It was a little confusing for us Colts fans who had been watching "the sieve" all year long.

Great post by the way.  I enjoy this sort of thing.... "little sigma tilde" should be your new handle.

I agree.  Sanders was a huge difference maker and he was the key to the entire defense.  In the two seasons where he was able to play most of the year (2005, 2007), the defense was among the best in the NFL.

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12 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

I agree.  Sanders was a huge difference maker and he was the key to the entire defense.  In the two seasons where he was able to play most of the year (2005, 2007), the defense was among the best in the NFL.

 

I am probably wrong and may get some hate for saying this, but that is kind of why I think a few key player additions could really change our defense this year- that is if it stays healthy of course.  

 

I do realize we had Freeney and Mathis at that time, but our recent defense has shown at least some occasional good play..... er maybe it was the offense calling bad plays or dropping balls... but anyway that is my hope.

 

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On 2/14/2017 at 0:20 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Really a bad decision not go for 16-0, the team was so close and Polian just ripped it away from the team and fans. People were ripping him so bad on his radio show for a few days that the radio show had to quit taking phone calls. I was so upset I considered boycotting the Playoffs at that point myself. Not sure why he thought it was wise to not go for that, that is a once in a lifetime thing if you are lucky to go 16-0.

Yup, it was a terrible move. Polian didn't make many mistakes, but that was a big one. If you have a chance at history, you go for it.

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The 05 team that choked against the Steelers was the best team in Indy by far in my opinion. The team that won the SB was one of the weakest in that stretch. Just goes to show you the playoffs can be a crapshoot. The 09 team should have won the SB, it was the second best team. 

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On 2/14/2017 at 5:44 PM, BR-549 said:

 

Two very different defenses once Bobby came to our aid.  Had he not gotten healthy for the playoffs I seriously doubt that we would have beaten Baltimore let alone the Patriots.  Hell, maybe not even KC.

 

It was a little confusing for us Colts fans who had been watching "the sieve" all year long.

Great post by the way.  I enjoy this sort of thing.... "little sigma tilde" should be your new handle.

That Jax game they were run over by MJD was a pathetic joke. Not in a million years did I think they would win the SB. In fact, I was getting used to the fact me and my old man might never see them in the SB again. 

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On 2/14/2017 at 6:51 PM, BR-549 said:

 

Yep, losing Bennet before the playoffs when he was in Buffalo gave Polian an illness that seemed to never heal.

 

I hated it personally.... not so much giving up the 16-0 opportunity, but sitting players who PLAY football for a living.  Competitors want to compete and I always felt they lost timing and momentum when they sat out.  Even a recent polishing becomes dull quickly..... just me.  

 

Belicheck didn't sit his guys... they push through and do what they do- usually that means win.

Sitting players cost the Colts the 2006 and 2009 Super bowls, imvho.  Gotta stay sharp!

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14 hours ago, mahagga73 said:

The 05 team that choked against the Steelers was the best team in Indy by far in my opinion. The team that won the SB was one of the weakest in that stretch. Just goes to show you the playoffs can be a crapshoot. The 09 team should have won the SB, it was the second best team. 

I think so too... Hell we beat the Steelers soundly just a few weeks earlier.  

 

We were out coached in 09- plain and simple.

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16 hours ago, mahagga73 said:

That Jax game they were run over by MJD was a pathetic joke. Not in a million years did I think they would win the SB. In fact, I was getting used to the fact me and my old man might never see them in the SB again. 

I honestly was never worried that we wouldn't win a SB in the Peyton era, I figured eventually with Peyton we would at least win 1, if not 2. After that Jags game, it really didn't change my mind. It was just one of those games where we stunk it up. It happens once or twice or year even to the best teams. When KC beat the Patriots 41-14 a couple of years ago it didn't mean diddly in the long run, it even happens to them.

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15 hours ago, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

Sitting players cost the Colts the 2006 and 2009 Super bowls, imvho.  Gotta stay sharp!

I don't think it affected them in 2009 since they still made it to the Super Bowl.  If you get bounced in the first round, you can say it's because you were rusty and didn't see real game action for however many weeks.  But if you rest, then win a game, then win another game, I don't think you can say the rest was the reason for the loss in the third game

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17 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

I don't think it affected them in 2009 since they still made it to the Super Bowl.  If you get bounced in the first round, you can say it's because you were rusty and didn't see real game action for however many weeks.  But if you rest, then win a game, then win another game, I don't think you can say the rest was the reason for the loss in the third game

I respectfully feel the opposite. We have the lead against the Jets and could have easily beaten the Bills. A lot of things went wrong in that superbowl (Pierre Garcon, Hank Baskett, conservative play calling at the end of the first half which led to a punt and them closing with a FG). I think if we go in there undefeated we come out the same way.

 

Edit: If we beat the Jets they don't make the playoffs (I don't recall who would have replaced them), but say the Bengals beat them, lose to the Chargers, and we face the Chargers in the AFC Championship. We weren't losing to them either.

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23 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

I don't think it affected them in 2009 since they still made it to the Super Bowl.  If you get bounced in the first round, you can say it's because you were rusty and didn't see real game action for however many weeks.  But if you rest, then win a game, then win another game, I don't think you can say the rest was the reason for the loss in the third game

I completely disagree but that is the beauty of our country isn't it?

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8 hours ago, bababooey said:

I respectfully feel the opposite. We have the lead against the Jets and could have easily beaten the Bills. A lot of things went wrong in that superbowl (Pierre Garcon, Hank Baskett, conservative play calling at the end of the first half which led to a punt and them closing with a FG). I think if we go in there undefeated we come out the same way.

 

Edit: If we beat the Jets they don't make the playoffs (I don't recall who would have replaced them), but say the Bengals beat them, lose to the Chargers, and we face the Chargers in the AFC Championship. We weren't losing to them either.

We beat all other AFC competition regardless.  I just don't think you can say resting caused a problem when the Colts won two consecutive playoff games immediately after resting their players.

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On 2/12/2017 at 8:28 PM, 21isSuperman said:

The NFL offseason can be a pretty slow time on the forums.  To combat this and keep the discussions going, I've decided to make a series of different discussion topics called the Offseason Reading Series (ORS).  Throughout the offseason, I will randomly post these threads to give people something to talk about.  They will be about all kinds of different football topics, but I will try to keep them mostly focused on the Colts.  Of course, the point is to keep everyone entertained during a slow time of the year, so if people don't like them, I will discontinue them so as to not annoy anyone.  With that said, let's begin with ORS#1...

 

The best Indianapolis Colts team ever

 

Since the start of the millennium, the Indianapolis Colts have been fortunate enough to have two exceptional QBs running the show for them.  Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck have both set multiple NFL records; when your QBs are setting records, your team is usually winning.  But of the many successful Colts teams since 1984, which one is the best?  The 2004 team put up all kinds of insane offensive numbers.  The 2005 squad looked destined for a Super Bowl before losing to Pittsburgh in the playoffs.  The 2006 squad looked like an easy out in the playoffs, but won it all.  The 2007 team had the league’s 3rd best scoring offense and top scoring defense.  So many great teams and accomplishments, but which single year was the best Indianapolis Colts team?  Keep in mind we're looking for the best Indianapolis Colts team and not the best Colts team, thus we don't include any Baltimore Colts teams.

 

To begin, let’s sort all of the 10+ win teams since 1984 by their W/L record.

 

 

2005: 14-2     2009: 14-2     1999: 13-3     2007: 13-3

2003: 12-4     2004: 12-4     2006: 12-4     2008: 12-4

2012: 11-5     2013: 11-5     2014: 11-5     2000: 10-6

2002: 10-6     2010: 10-6

 

Now let’s trim away the fat.  Setting 12 wins as the minimum requirement, that leaves us with 8 seasons.

 

2005: 14-2     2009: 14-2     1999: 13-3     2007: 13-3

2003: 12-4     2004: 12-4     2006: 12-4     2008: 12-4

 

John Madden once told me the winner of a game is the team that scores the most points.  Taking his great advice to heart, let’s narrow the list even more by removing any years that didn’t have a top 10 scoring offense and a top 10 scoring defense.  That leaves us with 3 teams.  In addition, I’m going to include the 2006 squad for analysis because they won the Super Bowl, even though the scoring defense was ranked 23rd/32.

 

2005: 14-2     2009: 14-2

2007: 13-3     2006: 12-4

 

We’re now left with four teams spanning five years.  The Colts’ five year stretch from 2005 to 2009, where they won 65/80 regular season games (81.25%) is one of the greatest five year stretches in NFL history.  Since 1980, it is the second best five year stretch of any team, only marginally behind the 2003-2007 Patriots (66/80, 82.5%).  In the entire Super Bowl era, it is third, sitting behind the aforementioned Patriots and the 1970-1974 Dolphins (57/70, 81.4%).  In fact, I did ANOVA statistical analysis and determined there was no statistically significant difference between the top three teams at the p < 0.001 level, so the Colts’ 5 year run from 2005 to 2009 is tied for the best 5 year stretch among all teams in the NFL in the Super Bowl era.  There’s no doubt the greatest Indianapolis Colts team is going to come from this period.  

 

Now we get into the numbers.  I wanted to know which team was the most complete.  Not only did your offense score and your defense not get scored on, but which team was the best at moving the ball and preventing the opponent from moving the ball?  How did your team do at getting interceptions and sacks?  There is a commonly used formula that takes all of this into account, and it’s the DVOA from Football Outsiders.  Let’s look at the defensive numbers for the four aforementioned teams and how they ranked in the league:

 

Year

PPG

YPG

Sacks

Interceptions

2005

15.4 (2nd)

307.1 (11th)

46 (5th)

18 (9th)

2006

22.5 (23rd)

332.2 (21st)

25 (30th)

15 (20th)

2007

16.4 (1st)

279.7 (3rd)

28 (26th)

22 (2nd)

2009

19.2 (8th)

339.2 (18th)

34 (16th)

16 (15th)

 

Forced Fumbles

QB rating given up

DVOA

 

 

2005

32 (4th)

83.0 (23rd)

-10.5% (8th)

2006

28 (8th)

80.4 (15th)

11.3% (27th)

2007

27 (11th)

73.3 (3rd)

-10.8% (3rd)

2009

20 (24th)

80.6 (12th)

-0.8% (16th)

 

Let’s look at the offensive stats:

Year

PPG

YPG

Pass TDs/Rush TDs

Interceptions

2005

27.4 (2nd)

362.4 (3rd)

31 (2nd)/18 (6th)

11 (5th)

2006

26.7 (2nd)

379.4 (3rd)

31 (1st)/17 (6th)

9 (2nd)

2007

28.1 (3rd)

358.7 (5th)

32 (4th)/19 (2nd)

14 (6th)

2009

26.0 (7th)

363.1 (9th)

34 (1st)/16 (12th)

19 (23rd)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fumbles

QB rating

DVOA

2005

14 (1st)

103.3 (1st)

30.5% (1st)

2006

13 (1st)

101.0 (1st)

33.8% (1st)

2007

14 (1st)

96.1 (5th)

28.3 (2nd)

 2009

11 (1st)

95.4 (9th)

16.8% (6th)

 

Sorry for the funny looking tables.  I had to format them this way to get them to fit on the screen.  On a little side note, the Colts did an excellent job of not fumbling the ball in these years.  

 

Next, we’ll assign points to each team based on their ranking.  A ranking of 1st will be 1 point, 2nd is 2 points, etc.  Using this points system, the lower the score is, the better.  This gives us scores of:

 

2005: 83     2006: 161

2007: 77     2009: 177

 

Clearly, the best regular season teams were 2005 and 2007.  However, to determine which team was the best team, we’d have to consider playoff stats as well.  This means we need to repeat this process, but look at the stats differently.  I’m going to look at the stats that give the average per game instead of overall season totals: PPG, YPG, time of possession/game (since running the ball becomes so important in the playoffs), and QB rating.  This time, keep in mind the rankings are out of 12, not 32.  Thus, each ranking is multiplied by 32/12 = 2.6667 to normalize it to the regular season data.  But playoff games are more important and carry greater consequences with them, so your performance in the playoffs must be better than in the regular season.  One loss in the regular season is no big deal; one loss in the playoffs is the end of your season.  Therefore, we need to multiply each ranking by what I call its “significance factor”.  If your team’s ranking for a certain statistic is 1, 2, 3, or 4, your team is playing exceptionally.  Therefore, those rankings will be divided by 2 (remember, lower score is better).  For example, the top ranked scoring defense in the playoffs would be given [1 x (32/12)]/2 = 1.333 points.  Rankings 5-8 will be kept as they are since they’re average among playoff teams, and rankings 9-12 will be multiplied by 2 because you’re performing poorly when it counts the most.  Defensively, this gives us:

 

Year

PPG

YPG

Time of possession

QB rating given up

2005

21 (7th)

295.0 (6th)

34:52 (2nd)

95.3 (6th)

2006

16.2 (2nd)

238.5 (1st)

24:58 (1st)

62.8 (3rd)

2007

28.0 (8th)

411.0 (12th)

29:39 (6th)

73.3 (3rd)

2009

17 (1st)

330.0 (5th)

28:16 (2nd)

89.3 (7th)

 

Gary Brackett did say the Colts were the “number one defense of the post-season” after winning Super Bowl XLI, and he did so with good reason.  Look at those rankings!  

 

And the offense:

Year

PPG

YPG

Time of possession

QB rating

2005

18 (7th)

305.0 (6th)

25:08 (11th)

90.9 (3rd)

2006

26.2 (3rd)

395.2 (2nd)

35:02 (1st)

70.2 (8th)

2007

24.0 (5th)

446.0 (1st)

30:21 (6th)

97.7 (2nd)

2009

22.3 (5th)

308.7 (3rd)

31:44 (3rd)

99.0 (4th)

 

In terms of the scoring system we’re using, this gives us:

 

 

2005: 83 + 150.67 = 233.67

2006: 161 + 38.67 = 199.67

2007: 77 + 138.67 = 215.67

2009: 177 + 62.67 = 239.67

 

Keeping in mind that the lowest number is best, we see that the 2006 squad blows away all other teams because of how well they played in the playoffs.  After the regular season stats were taken into consideration, the 2006 squad was 2nd last.  However, that team did enough to make it to the playoffs and have a chance to win it all.  What caused these changes?

When the playoffs came around, Bob Sanders returned to the defense and the entire defensive unit played lights out when it mattered most.  In fact, the 2006 team did what everyone said they couldn’t do.  Can’t stop the run?  They held Larry Johnson – a 1700 yard rusher – to 32 yards on 13 attempts.  Can’t beat an elite defense in the playoffs?  They beat the league’s #1 ranked defense in the divisional round.  Can’t beat Tom Brady?  They staged an amazing comeback to beat Brady and the Pats to make it to the Super Bowl.  Can’t win outdoors in bad weather?  The Colts won the first Super Bowl ever played in the rain against a team known for playing in the elements.  When you put it all together, based on this method of analysis, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts were the best team in Indianapolis history.  It certainly helps your case when you end your season this way...

 

636038291826935269-63-COLTS.137907.jpg

 

What do you think?  Was the 2006 team the best Indianapolis Colts team ever?  Let's hear your thoughts!  And keep your eyes peeled for the next ORS!

 

All stats taken from NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and pro-football-reference.com.

 

Get a life.

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On 2/13/2017 at 6:38 AM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Great stuff and nice breakdown Superman! I have to go with 2006 eventhough they weren't statistically the best. They are the only Indianapolis Colts to go undefeated at home, 10-0 overall counting the Playoffs. They also won at Baltimore going through Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, then beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Playoffs. They won the SB so I have them #1.

I would list them as:

1. 2006 Colts

2. 2005 Colts

3. 2007 Colts

4. 2009 Colts - Started 14-0 and won the AFC, so I have them 4th

5. 2004 Colts - Manning's 49 TD season, so I have them 5th

 

2009 without any doubt I don't care what Polian says. He was getting really old in 2009.

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On 15/02/2017 at 4:23 AM, indyagent17 said:

yep, I will never forgive Garcon for dropping an easy and huge gain when were up 10-0. It started to fall apart from there. And the huge hit to the head Manning took just before the pick six to Tracy Porter and bounty gate came out the next year.  Its it said Saturday told Manning to stop and take time out when he saw Manning's eyes after that hit

 

Oh gosh, you are bringing back the full range of emotions here. Garcon catches that ball then I am convinced the Colts win the game.

Oh BTW, awesome read OP.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/17/2017 at 6:48 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

We should've went undefeated that season, very disappointing ending. Polian pulling everyone out was nonsense.

I don't know. Our defense was exposed in that SB. Brees completed nearly every pass.  They made Sanchez look pretty good most that AFC title game. 

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32 minutes ago, mahagga73 said:

I don't know. Our defense was exposed in that SB. Brees completed nearly every pass.  They made Sanchez look pretty good most that AFC title game. 

The defense/Larry Coyer was so scared of the deep ball that they gave up all the short underneath routes.  I still think if Freeney was completely healthy, we win that game.  He got one sack on a hurt ankle, which is what caused the Saints to switch to their short passing.  Unfortunately, as we were warned by Broncos fans, Coyer didn't make the needed adjustments

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    • Nickster Henry always has good games against our smaller fast D.  Henry had a pretty good day last week and TN seems to have two OT who can play now.  I think this is going to be a very physical game and I still think their DL on our OL is a complete mismatch.  I know Henry is getting touches but I think for us to win JT needs 32 plus touches.  
    • No they arent.  They have no pass rush at all and their edges struggle to hold it against good outside zone teams.  That is TN bread and butter and why Henry kills us every year.  Wake up and stop being deluded by your fandom
    • Have you watched some tape on them? If they are average when they are getting double and some times tripled teamed , they are better then average.  Sacks look good on paper but pressuring the Qb and getting them to make mistakes that lead to turnovers is way better.
    • I think you will see mostly the same thing v. KC.  The run D matches up really well v. TN.  Woods could hurt us if he is at his best physically.  Looks like he had a nice game last week.   INDY was bend don't break v. KC last week in the 2nd half.  KC moved the ball at will after the break on long methodical drives gaining 200 yds on 4 drives, the last of which was a 24 second drive,  then bogged down and missed FGs and fake FGs.  Colts were the beneficiaries of an all time terrible special teams day for KC, and they made their own luck with great play in the RZ defensively.    It would be somewhat surprising to me if TN has much success running if and until they establish a threatening passing attack.   TN hasn't been great running the FB in their 1st 3.   Our team is really set up to shut down running attacks, and have done that very well in the 1st 3.    INDY seemed to use more press bail tech in the C3 v. KC than they did v. JAX.  2nd half Indy decided to shut down Kelce with bracketed coverage and dared them to beat us with someone else.  I think Woods is better than anyone at WR than KC has by a good margin when healthy, so it will be interesting to see if they press bail him.   Jax had a lot of success with Engram on Gilmore in effectively man coverage since Engram is not the focal point of the passing attack like Kelce is.  TN might try to exploit Gilmore with a TE.  I'd try it.  I'd also turn Tannehill loose to run down field if he sees the opportunity.  PM looked very cautious about running downfield Sunday.  
    • Plus he keeps his eyes downfield on the move better than anyone I've ever seen.  He is a pass 1st, 2nd, 3rd dude.  He could put up Jackson numbers running if he wanted to. 
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