The Peyton Predicament By Andrew Brandt: Can The Colts Afford To Keep Peyton?

[Nadine]

Andrew Brandt at the National Football Post has written a two part series on Mannings Contract that IMO, is MUST READ material for colts fans

The Peyton Predicament Part 1: http://www.nationalf...ent-Part-1.html

The Peyton Predicament Part 2: http://www.nationalf...ent-Part-2.html

Bradt concludes the series with this

As hard as it is to part with the face of the franchise, I would move on.

The confluence of three factors – (1) a massive financial commitment required -- $35.4 million in 2012 alone, (2) an uncertain neck condition involving regeneration of nerves (this is not a shoulder or knee injury), and (3) a special player in Luck, available for half the price at the same position – all conspire towards a parting of ways.

I have to say, agree

Manning wants to play and he wants to play in Indy. The contract he built is proof of that.

However, as much as he wants this. I do not think it's in the Colts best interests.

Check it out and let me know what you think

[GoColts8818]

I like this guy. I hate what he's saying but I like him and let's be honest of the people in the media he can releate to this best. He was there when the Packers had to pick Rodgers over Favre. I know the situations were completely different but he's lived having to make that hard call.

[FireJimCaldwell]

This is the best article out there on the topic.

It's must reading for anyone that wants to being to understand the salary cap and how it functions. He could have provided some charts, or better some more detailed information in places, but he has the correct information.

[Wyld1]

It is well written and really shows that the only solution is unfortunately the one that most wouldn't want to see. My only question is, if they could push back the bonus and possibly re-work the deal, wouldn't it help to then trade Peyton? I mean there is a huge differance between trading a sure fire HOFer and releasing one. It actually works both ways in regards to the impact on the situation and how it is perceived moving forward.

[jskinnz]

This is the best article out there on the topic.

It's must reading for anyone that wants to being to understand the salary cap and how it functions. He could have provided some charts, or better some more detailed information in places, but he has the correct information.

Agree. Makes it clear why it is very unlikely that Manning will be a Colt in 2012.

Interesting take on why the Colts allowed a contract that gave all leverage to Manning.

[FireJimCaldwell]

It is well written and really shows that the only solution is unfortunately the one that most wouldn't want to see. My only question is, if they could push back the bonus and possibly re-work the deal, wouldn't it help to then trade peyton? I mean there is a huge differance between trading a sure fire HOFer and releasing one. It actually works both ways in regards to the impact on the situation and how it is percieved moving forward.

In theory, if it could be pushed back, it would be a benefit to the Colts to attempt to trade him, but it would not be a benefit to Manning, so even if he could push it back there is no benefit for him to do so because that would only weaken his future team.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Agree. Makes it clear why it is very unlikely that Manning will be a Colt in 2012.

Interesting take on why the Colts allowed a contract that gave all leverage to Manning.

It gives him leverage but it gives them an out.

An alternative would be been the 20 million signing bonus and the 28 million option bonus combined into one larger signing bonus which would have caused a bigger acceleration against the cap.

This is something that Manning insisted on, and it was for the Colts benefit in case he wasn't able to continue. Now of course Polian/Irsay could be blasted for agreeing to it to start with, since he was injured.

That 48 million hit over 5 years would have the bonus divided at 9.6 per year. 4 years remaining would have 38.4 accelerating into the 2012 cap, so the current situation is far better than what it could have been with one lump some bonus.

[Wyld1]

In theory, if it could be pushed back, it would be a benefit to the Colts to attempt to trade him, but it would not be a benefit to Manning, so even if he could push it back there is no benefit for him to do so because that would only weaken his future team.

Spot on answer! But if you really think about it wouldn't you rathe be traded than released?

Btw, everytime I read your posts I can't help but hear it as Cleveland Brown's voice ;)

[FireJimCaldwell]

Spot on answer! But if you really think about it wouldn't you rathe be traded than released?

Btw, everytime I read your posts I can't help but hear it as Cleveland Brown's voice ;)

Maybe that makes the posts more appealing then.

Well. If I'm Manning, I'm set for life $$$$wise. I'd rather be able to select my next team if I wish to continue to play as opposed to being dealt somewhere.

[John Dee]

Don't you guys listen to 1070? Although DD is smug Edit.

Straight from the horses mouth...

http://www.1070thefa...s.aspx?PID=2155

He has other podcasts on the Gray and Big Joe show ...

He has said all along he doesn't see how Indy can keep Manning and draft Luck...

He's the best.

Sorry, page 5 towards the bottom, and he has other podcasts just have to dig through and find them.

Edited January 27, 2012 by Coltssouth
Inappropriate

[The Fish]

Accurate article. Thanks

[WoolMagnet]

Don't you guys listen to 1070? Although DD is smug Edit.

Straight from the horses mouth...

http://www.1070thefa...s.aspx?PID=2155

He has other podcasts on the Gray and Big Joe show ...

He has said all along he doesn't see how Indy can keep Manning and draft Luck...

He's the best.

Sorry, page 5 towards the bottom, and he has other podcasts just have to dig through and find them.

How is it forum allows this word but not Edit ?

weird

Edited January 27, 2012 by Coltssouth
Masked cursing

[Wyld1]

Maybe that makes the posts more appealing then.

Well. If I'm Manning, I'm set for life $$$$wise. I'd rather be able to select my next team if I wish to continue to play as opposed to being dealt somewhere.

Actually it brings a smile to my face thinking Cleveland is responding as crazy as that sounds!

While I understand wanting to select your team being cut isn't a way I would want to go out. I would try and work it out where I approved who I was dealt to....but thats me and not necassarily other's views.

[Turftoe]

Very informative article.

All the conjecture is whether the colts will pick up the contract v.s. release him, and if not, where would he end up. I believe that the real question is how much of his physical abilities have been regained and if he can play, how much would another team be willing to gamble? Just because he is recovering and wants to continue his career, there has to be a big question mark as to how good he can be this coming season.

My guess is that PM has played his last game. If not, I hope he goes to another team and does well. Worst case scenario would be for him to go to another team and go out in failure.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Actually it brings a smile to my face thinking Cleveland is responding as crazy as that sounds!

While I understand wanting to select your team being cut isn't a way I would want to go out. I would try and work it out where I approved who I was dealt to....but thats me and not necassarily other's views.

Maybe one day there will be a site that can have text copied and pasted and it will read as various voices...

I can understand that too, but if I had to weigh, being able to freely choose that had their draft picks intact vs. the alternative it would make my choice easier.. I just finding him being traded all but impossible due to the salary cap issues.

[WSO]

This should be stickied

[seeblu]

The article points out that Peyton and Condon structured the contract this way so the Colts could not cut him a couple of years down the road when PM's skill started to decline. Well Peyton, this is your problem, IMO. You created the problem to protect yourself and it ends up costing you. Life happens.

[JoKeR]

This blogger, reporter is just that. He does not know what's best for the franchise, no matter how good his writing is.

[Thewholefnshow28]

Manning + Luck = $50 million for 2012

If the Colts exercise the option and also select Luck with the top pick in the Draft, they will be committing over $50 million for the quarterback position in 2012. While Luck’s overall compensation will "only" be approximately $23 million over four years, he will receive a signing bonus and salary of more than $15 million in the first year of his deal. That is an untenable amount of money for that position, especially when the Colts paid over $32 million at quarterback in 2011.

Right there is all you need to know why Peyton and Andrew could not coexist. Payting two QBs a total of 50 million when the cap is not going up by much would be a disaster.

Peyton's agent definately earned his money in this last contract. Got a no trade clause without having an actual no trade clause in the contract. Peyton did what was best for him and I cannot believe Polian and Irsay were ok with this contract.

Everything points to Manning being gone. The financial implications are just to much for him to stay on.

If we do keep him and take Luck you might as well kiss all our free agents goodbye.

[FireJimCaldwell]

The article points out that Peyton and Condon structured the contract this way so the Colts could not cut him a couple of years down the road when PM's skill started to decline. Well Peyton, this is your problem, IMO. You created the problem to protect yourself and it ends up costing you. Life happens.

It actually protects the Colts as much as it protects Manning.

In a couple of years it he only time he could even begin to considered to be cut if the option is picked up. If he were healthy, this would be a sweetheart deal for the Colts.

Since it appears he isn't it gives them an out which is something Manning insisted on.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Right there is all you need to know why Peyton and Andrew could not coexist. Payting two QBs a total of 50 million when the cap is not going up by much would be a disaster.

Peyton's agent definately earned his money in this last contract. Got a no trade clause without having an actual no trade clause in the contract. Peyton did what was best for him and I cannot believe Polian and Irsay were ok with this contract.

Everything points to Manning being gone. The financial implications are just to much for him to stay on.

If we do keep him and take Luck you might as well kiss all our free agents goodbye.

Keep in mind that the 50 million figure is the Cash payout. The cap hit would combined for 2012 would be in the 22-23 range.

Again, Peyton set it up to protect the Colts, by giving them this out.

[Thewholefnshow28]

Keep in mind that the 50 million figure is the Cash payout. The cap hit would combined for 2012 would be in the 22-23 range. Again, Peyton set it up to protect the Colts, by giving them this out.

Yeah the cap hit will definately not be that high, but 22-23 million is still close to 20% of the 2011 cap. From everything reported the cap does not sound like it is going to go up by much if at all. So spending 20% of the cap on two players with one riding the pine the entire year is not a great situation to be in.

[UndecidedFrog]

I think the article is spot on, well written, and clear.

The absolute worse case scenario is for the Colts to pay the option bonus ($28.4MM) on March 8, and then find out that Peyton is unable to play come September, and must retire. The cap hit in 2012 will be $38.4MM (or over 30% of the estimated 2012 total salary cap). The pro-rated parts of bonus in the future years all get accelerated to the present.

If the Colts decide to release Peyton and not pay the option bonus in March, then the cap hit in 2012 from Peyton would be $10.4MM.

[JoKeR]

Keep in mind that the 50 million figure is the Cash payout. The cap hit would combined for 2012 would be in the 22-23 range.

Again, Peyton set it up to protect the Colts, by giving them this out.

Bump. The blogger should focus on the cap hits.

[presto123]

It actually protects the Colts as much as it protects Manning.

In a couple of years it he only time he could even begin to considered to be cut if the option is picked up. If he were healthy, this would be a sweetheart deal for the Colts.

Since it appears he isn't it gives them an out which is something Manning insisted on.

Well....if Manning insisted on an "out" for the Colts on the contract why is he acting somewhat shocked and dismayed when it looks like the "out" is the direction they are headed? He was rewarded big time for sitting out all year so he should not try to make Irsay out to be the bad guy no matter what happens from this point out. Irsay was more than loyal enough when he gave him 26 million with a very uncertain future.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Well....if Manning insisted on an "out" for the Colts on the contract why is he acting somewhat shocked and dismayed when it looks like the "out" is the direction they are headed? He was rewarded big time for sitting out all year so he should not try to make Irsay out to be the bad guy no matter what happens from this point out. Irsay was more than loyal enough when he gave him 26 million with a very uncertain future.

I don't see that as the perception of his issues.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Bump. The blogger should focus on the cap hits.

That would be my one complaint with it. When he listed the base salaries he should have included the 16,17,18,19 & 20 cap #'s.

[MSColtsFan]

Keep in mind that the 50 million figure is the Cash payout. The cap hit would combined for 2012 would be in the 22-23 range.

Again, Peyton set it up to protect the Colts, by giving them this out.

I'd say Manning and Condon set it up to protect themselves too. One of the more important components of the article, and contract I think is the way Condon/Mannning also made the money so large at the time of the bonus that it nearly prohibits a trade. The cap hit would be too great to trade Manning once the 3/8 bonus and activation of the remaining years kicks in. This is as close to a 'no trade clause' as Manning and Condon could get. Brandt suggests that this was deliberate, so that if Manning begins to suffer age-related performance decreases, as nearly all players do, the Colts couldn't just move him onto a team of their choosing - the one offering the biggest return. Manning, if released, obviously gets to pick his destination, amongst the suiters who persue him.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'd say Manning and Condon set it up to protect themselves too. One of the more important components of the article, and contract I think is the way Condon/Mannning also made the money so large at the time of the bonus that it nearly prohibits a trade. The cap hit would be too great to trade Manning once the 3/8 bonus and activation of the remaining years kicks in. This is as close to a 'no trade clause' as Manning and Condon could get. Brandt suggests that this was deliberate, so that if Manning begins to suffer age-related performance decreases, as nearly all players do, the Colts couldn't just move him onto a team of their choosing - the one offering the biggest return. Manning, if released, obviously gets to pick his destination, amongst the suiters who persue him.

It protects both parties.

It gives the Colts an out if he isn't healthy and it insures the contract is in place if he is healthy.

Also an alternative would have been the 48 million in one lump sum which would be putting is in a very dangerous situation the way it looks right now.

[Larry Horseman]

Yeah the cap hit will definately not be that high, but 22-23 million is still close to 20% of the 2011 cap. From everything reported the cap does not sound like it is going to go up by much if at all. So spending 20% of the cap on two players with one riding the pine the entire year is not a great situation to be in.

Not that I think it is a desirable situation, but that is pretty much what was invested in the QB position in 2012, and if one of the four QBs on the roster would have been average to PM skill level, the Colts would have fielded a team that was middle of the pack to playoffs. I brought this up yesterday in another thread, but Freeney's cap hit in 2012 is as much an issue as the potential Manning/Luck cap hit. The cap club should be running DFree out of town as well.

Also, what no one is discussing is that the cap is going to balloon in 2013 once the new TV revenue kicks in. From what I have heard/read it could increase as much as $20-$40 million. Thus, having PM and Luck on the roster becomes a lot more affordable after 2012, as do any other scenarios regarding cutting/trading PM in the future or him retiring. This is another reason PM's contract was structured to have bigger cap hits in the later years. Furthermore, the Saints are about to pay Brees and I'm sure the contract will average close to or above $20 million/yr. The Pack will do the same with Rodgers soon. Point is, in today's NFL, the QB position is always going to eat a lot of cap space if the team's QB is elite.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Here is how the cap hits would play out based on a 1% increase in the salary cap and Luck getting a 5% increase of Cam Newton's deal.

Salary Cap Dollars Colts Quarterbacks 2011-2015 with Manning & Luck and assuming Painter is cut, and Orlovsky isn't resigned and QB 3 makes the league minimum for a rookie.

2011

Manning 16 million

Collins 2.75

Painter 502k

Orlvosky 578k

Total 19.8 million/120million 16.5% of the cap

2012

Manning 17 million

Luck 4.2 million

Collins 1.25 million

Painter 22k

Rookie QB 3 390k

Total 22.8 million/121.2 million or 18.9% of the cap.

Certainly not ideal.

[UndecidedFrog]

Also, what no one is discussing is that the cap is going to balloon in 2013 once the new TV revenue kicks in. From what I have heard/read it could increase as much as $20-$40 million. Thus, having PM and Luck on the roster becomes a lot more affordable after 2012, as do any other scenarios regarding cutting/trading PM in the future or him retiring. This is another reason PM's contract was structured to have bigger cap hits in the later years.

If the Colts pay Peyton the bonus on March 8 in addition to already paid 2011 bonus, and if Peyton plays out the contract, these are the Peyton cap hits:

2011: $16MM

2012: $17MM

2013: $18MM

2014: $19MM

2015: $20MM

[Larry Horseman]

If the Colts pay Peyton the bonus on March 8 in addition to already paid 2011 bonus, and if Peyton plays out the contract, these are the Peyton cap hits:

2011: $16MM

2012: $17MM

2013: $18MM

2014: $19MM

2015: $20MM

Right, so it has bigger hits in the later years.

[tonychen]

If Manning retires can Colts get some compensation as an extra draft pick for example?

[FireJimCaldwell]

If Manning retires can Colts get some compensation as an extra draft pick for example?

No, nor if he is released.

[UndecidedFrog]

Right, so it has bigger hits in the later years.

I don't consider a $3MM difference significant when looking at the total salary cap figure in the range of $122MM.

$3MM comes out to about 2.5%.

[jskinnz]

Bump. The blogger should focus on the cap hits.

You don't know who he is do you?

[tonychen]

Bump. The blogger should focus on the cap hits.

I have zero problem agreeing with the blogger, and everything he writes/implies makes perfect sense and is reflected by what has happened/is happening. Only one thing I don't see is what difference does it make for Irsay if Manning retires or is released. If Colts does not get anything as a compensation if Manning choose to retire, why don't they feel happy to release him and make a good ending to his era?

[UndecidedFrog]

I have zero problem agreeing with the blogger, and everything he writes/implies makes perfect sense and is reflected by what has happened/is happening. Only one thing I don't see is what difference does it make for Irsay if Manning retires or is released. If Colts does not get anything as a compensation if Manning choose to retire, why don't they feel happy to release him and make a good ending to his era?

The difference is perspective. If Manning is released, it is the Colts who are saying, sorry Peyton (for one or a combiination of many reasons) you're done as a Colt QB.

Whereas, if Manning retires, it is Peyton who is saying, I'm done.

I think, given the personal relationship between Peyton and Irsay, that Irsay prefers that Peyton opts to retire, rather than having the Colts opt to release him.

[Larry Horseman]

I don't consider a $3MM difference significant when looking at the total salary cap figure in the range of $122MM.

$3MM comes out to about 2.5%.

I never said it was significant. You are reading too much into my statement, and latching onto perhaps the most insignificant sentence in the entire post. All I was saying, which could be said about any contract at any point in time but particularly under the new CBA starting in 2013 because of new TV revenue, is that one of the many reasons PM's cap hit increases is because the cap does. Maybe the one sentence about this wasn't clear enough for you or you have some agenda about this issue, I'm not sure. The real points of substance in my post were that 2011 QB combo cost almost as much as Manning/Luck will in 2012, the cap is going to increase much more than PMs or Luck's salary starting in 2013, thus their hit won't be a cap killer; other teams with elite QBs will have a similar amount of money invested in the position as the Colts would with Manning/Luck; and DFree needs to rework his deal or be cut.

That being said, I want Manning on the Colts with my heart, and only the head in as much as if he is healthy he gives the Colts the best chance to win. I, unlike some, do not think the talent on this team is as bad as 2-14. The cap is a hot mess with or without PM on the team.