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"We need to score more points!!" playoff scenario.

Dustin

By Dustin
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Dustin Walk On

Dustin

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Posted

As it stands, the Colts are 6-8 and the Texans are 7-7. If the Colts win against the Dolphins and Titans and the Texans drop their game against the Titans, this would be the playoff scenario (assuming both teams win week 17):

 

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). - The series was split. 1-1

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. - Both teams will be 4-2

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. - Both teams will be 6-6

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. - Both teams will be 6-6

 

 

5. Strength of victory. 

 

The Colts strength of victory depends on the Broncos, Falcons, and Dolphins and the Texans strength of victory depends on the Bengals, Jets, and Saints. 

 

If the Broncos finish 12-4, the Bengals 11-5, the Falcons 9-7, the Jets 9-7, the Dolphins 6-10, the Jaguars 6-10, the Saints 5-11, and the Titans 4-12 both teams strength of victory will be 31-33. (Bolded are the Colts common victories).

 

These would require:

 

  1. The Broncos to beat the Bengals and Chargers.- Likely.
  2. The Bengals to lose to the Broncos and Ravens. - Possible.
  3. The Falcons to upset the Panthers this week and beat the Saints Week 17. - Unlikely.
  4. The Jets to lose against both the Patriots and Bills. - Possible. Maybe likely.
  5. The Dolphins to lose to the Colts and beat the Patriots. - Unlikely.
  6. The Jaguars beat the Saints and lose to the Texans. - Possible.
  7. The Saints lose against the Jaguars and Falcons. - Possible.
  8. The Titans beat the Texans and lose to the Colts. - Possible.

 

A ton of these are possible, but all of them happening are incredibly unlikely. 

 

6. Strength of Schedule

 

Given the above scenarios all played out like that, the Steelers would have to go 10-6 and the Chiefs would have to go 11-5 to tie up strength of schedule at 22-10

 

This would require:

 

The Steelers lose one of their final 2 games (Ravens and Browns). - Unlikely

The Chiefs win their remaining two games (Browns and Raiders). - Likely

 

Finally, if all of those scenarios happen the tiebreaker will come down to: 

 

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed 

 

or

 

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

 

This is simply your ranking of points scored + ranking in points allowed (by conference rank).The Colts rank 11th in points scored and 14th in points allowed in the AFC. Their combined rank is 25th. 

 

The Texans are 14th and 7th respectively. Their combined rank is 21. 

 

The Texans however own the tiebreaker here, but as close as this currently is, this gives incentive to both teams trying their hardest to run the score up in their final game as much as possible. I wouldn't expect Chuck Pagano to know anything about these tie-breaking scenarios, and it would be the most Colts thing ever to lose on a crazy tie breaking scenario like this. But if the Colts beat the Dolphins on Sunday and the Texans drop.

 

So, in summary, there is a reality in which both the Texans and Colts might have to run up the score in week 17 against the Jaguars and Titans respectively. Of course this also depends on both teams winning their week 17 games, let alone being in position to run up the score on them.

 

And I'll be the first to say that this is not going to happen. 

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southwest1 Walk On

southwest1

Posted
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28 minutes ago, Dustin said:

As it stands, the Colts are 6-8 and the Texans are 7-7. If the Colts win against the Dolphins and Titans and the Texans drop their game against the Titans, this would be the playoff scenario (assuming both teams win week 17):

 

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). - The series was split. 1-1

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. - Both teams will be 4-2

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. - Both teams will be 6-6

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. - Both teams will be 6-6

 

 

5. Strength of victory. 

 

The Colts strength of victory depends on the Broncos, Falcons, and Dolphins and the Texans strength of victory depends on the Bengals, Jets, and Saints. 

 

If the Broncos finish 12-4, the Bengals 11-5, the Falcons 9-7, the Jets 9-7, the Dolphins 6-10, the Jaguars 6-10, the Saints 5-11, and the Titans 4-12 both teams strength of victory will be 31-33. (Bolded are the Colts common victories).

 

These would require:

 

  1. The Broncos to beat the Bengals and Chargers.- Likely.
  2. The Bengals to lose to the Broncos and Ravens. - Possible.
  3. The Falcons to upset the Panthers this week and beat the Saints Week 17. - Unlikely.
  4. The Jets to lose against both the Patriots and Bills. - Possible. Maybe likely.
  5. The Dolphins to lose to the Colts and beat the Patriots. - Unlikely.
  6. The Jaguars beat the Saints and lose to the Texans. - Possible.
  7. The Saints lose against the Jaguars and Falcons. - Possible.
  8. The Titans beat the Texans and lose to the Colts. - Possible.

 

A ton of these are possible, but all of them happening are incredibly unlikely. 

 

6. Strength of Schedule

 

Given the above scenarios all played out like that, the Steelers would have to go 10-6 and the Chiefs would have to go 11-5 to tie up strength of schedule at 22-10

 

This would require:

 

The Steelers lose one of their final 2 games (Ravens and Browns). - Unlikely

The Chiefs win their remaining two games (Browns and Raiders). - Likely

 

Finally, if all of those scenarios happen the tiebreaker will come down to: 

 

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed 

 

or

 

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

 

This is simply your ranking of points scored + ranking in points allowed (by conference rank).The Colts rank 11th in points scored and 14th in points allowed in the AFC. Their combined rank is 25th. 

 

The Texans are 14th and 7th respectively. Their combined rank is 21. 

 

The Texans however own the tiebreaker here, but as close as this currently is, this gives incentive to both teams trying their hardest to run the score up in their final game as much as possible. I wouldn't expect Chuck Pagano to know anything about these tie-breaking scenarios, and it would be the most Colts thing ever to lose on a crazy tie breaking scenario like this. But if the Colts beat the Dolphins on Sunday and the Texans drop.

 

So, in summary, there is a reality in which both the Texans and Colts might have to run up the score in week 17 against the Jaguars and Titans respectively. Of course this also depends on both teams winning their week 17 games, let alone being in position to run up the score on them.

 

And I'll be the first to say that this is not going to happen. 

 Your post, elaborately laid out BTW Dustin, reminds me of that can you follow directions correctly test you are given in school where the teacher says read the instructions carefully before you begin.

 

Students plow ahead & then start submitting responses only to find out that they were not supposed to use any pencils at all. It was a listening exercise & as a result, 98% of the class is left rigorously erasing everything. 

 

Well played Dustin; I almost fell for the same deceptive ploy again but I caught myself before it was too late. Victory is mine! Too much? Yeah, I probably went a little overboard there. :P

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