Colts vs Texans win probability index.

[Dustin]

http://live.advancednflstats.com/index.php?gameid1=2013110310

 

Just saw this and thought it was cool. At the 11:27 mark of the 4th quarter the Texans had a 97% chance of winning. 

[BOTT]

They didn't figure in the Texans choke history

[Ja'Crispy]

They didn't figure in that when the score is 21-3, the Colts have the opponent right where they want them.

[AllYouNeedIsLuck]

What a resilient bunch

[Warhorse]

edit

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

Lol absolutely disgusting.

[21isSuperman]

That's pretty cool.  I wonder what kind of stats they use to measure that kind of thing.

[SkyBane]

That's pretty cool. I wonder what kind of stats they use to measure that kind of thing.

Analysis of game situations to see how other teams fared in the same scenarios. Its not the most complicated statistics math in the world, but certainly requires an ungodly amount of effort to keep the program that calculates it up to date.

Fun fact: ESPN uses this to help determine their silly QBR stat, wherin QB plays that effect win % more are given greater weight. They wont say how much the weighting change is though.

[Superman]

Analysis of game situations to see how other teams fared in the same scenarios. Its not the most complicated statistics math in the world, but certainly requires an ungodly amount of effort to keep the program that calculates it up to date.

Fun fact: ESPN uses this to help determine their silly QBR stat, wherin QB plays that effect win % more are given greater weight. They wont say how much the weighting change os though.

 

Yeah, it's cool to look at and sometimes useful, but flawed. A game with a terrible QB on the road, down by a score in the 4th quarter, is entered into WP for a game with a great QB on the road. Luck is way better than Seneca Wallace at the end of the game.