Cap room outlook for 2013

[Coltman51]

This just posted at ESPN, start working up a shopping list. Projected cap space for AFC south for next year

• The Colts have the most room of anyone in the league with $43 million.
  
• The Jaguars, minus Aaron Kampman, move up to $25 million, Clayton tells me.
  
• The Texans will have $24.8 million.
  
• The Titans should be at $16 million.
  
• 
  

[shakedownstreet]

i expect to have $48 cap space in 2013. maybe i'll finally buy that mr coffee i've been dreaming about

[dw49]

This just posted at ESPN, start working up a shopping list. Projected cap space for AFC south for next year

• The Colts have the most room of anyone in the league with $43 million.
  
• The Jaguars, minus Aaron Kampman, move up to $25 million, Clayton tells me.
  
• The Texans will have $24.8 million.
  
• The Titans should be at $16 million.
  
• 
  

That number looks a bit small to me. I've read where it should be closer to 60-70 million , which makes sense. All we have is Wayne and Mathis making over 5 million per year. Hard to believe we would only have 19 mill more than the Texans onsidering the two rosters. All the dead cap money has been applied to 2012. I really do belive that they have a bad figure here.

[GoColts8818]

That number looks a bit small to me. I've read where it should be closer to 60-70 million.

We spent some of it this off-season with the players we did pick up.

[Coltman51]

Sure the number will go up or down between now and then, writer said he was factoring in resigning Collie and Powers(?) into the number as well. Just liked that it opens up some possibilities we didn't have this year.

[21isSuperman]

That's great news knowing we have all that cap space. It's key for a rebuilding team. And thank goodness for the rookie wage scale!

[Smonroe]

That's great news knowing we have all that cap space. It's key for a rebuilding team. And thank goodness for the rookie wage scale!

That's so true. We don't have to worry about paying Luck real big money for a few years now. I really think the model for RB is to draft one every year and release them as soon as their rookie contract is done. Unless we happen on a superstar, of course.

[dw49]

We spent some of it this off-season with the players we did pick up.

Yes we did ..Satale . Justice , Redding and the DB from Balt (sp) but I didn't think that would be more than maybe around 15 mill. What I had seen at around 67 million was from a colt fan who's pretty god at the cap. So dunno.. but one thing I do know is that these early things you see from guys like Clayton are seldom accurate. In any event , we should be in position to sign at least a couple of good players next year. It will be interesting to see if they resign DF after this year too...

[GoColts8818]

Yes we did ..Satale . Justice , Redding and the DB from Balt (sp) but I didn't think that would be more than maybe around 15 mill. What I had seen at around 67 million was from a colt fan who's pretty god at the cap. So dunno.. but one thing I do know is that these early things you see from guys like Clayton are seldom accurate. In any event , we should be in position to sign at least a couple of good players next year. It will be interesting to see if they resign DF after this year too...

Add to that the draft picks and it goes up at as well. You are right the big thing is that we should be in position money wise to be able to sign a couple of good players next year.

[BayAreaBronco]

That's so true. We don't have to worry about paying Luck real big money for a few years now. I really think the model for RB is to draft one every year and release them as soon as their rookie contract is done. Unless we happen on a superstar, of course.

Yep, that's what will happen for RBs. But the rookie wage scale probably will have the effect of depressing everyone's salaries. I wonder if NFLPA considered that before they accepted the deal.

[Smonroe]

Yep, that's what will happen for RBs. But the rookie wage scale probably will have the effect of depressing everyone's salaries. I wonder if NFLPA considered that before they accepted the deal.

The more we learn about the deal, the more we're finding out that the players got the short end.

As far as RB's, unless you prove you're a star while on your rookie contract, you're going to be a journeyman. The position is extremely devalued.

[dw49]

Yep, that's what will happen for RBs. But the rookie wage scale probably will have the effect of depressing everyone's salaries. I wonder if NFLPA considered that before they accepted the deal.

How will the rookie wage scale (slotting) "depress everyones salaries " ? If the cap is 120 million , and starting next year the teams have to spend at least 89% of that , what am I missing ? I think the NFLPA wanted to give the Demarcus Russell money to deserving veterens and they were certainly smart enough to accomplish that.

[dw49]

The more we learn about the deal, the more we're finding out that the players got the short end.

As far as RB's, unless you prove you're a star while on your rookie contract, you're going to be a journeyman. The position is extremely devalued.

The game has changed more to a passing offense and teams go RB by committee a bit more. Just the way it is I guess. As far as the new deal , I think it was an OK deal for the players.

[BayAreaBronco]

How will the rookie wage scale (slotting) "depress everyones salaries " ? If the cap is 120 million , and starting next year the teams have to spend at least 89% of that , what am I missing ? I think the NFLPA wanted to give the Demarcus Russell money to deserving veterens and they were certainly smart enough to accomplish that.

Assuming every team spends all their cap space, the average figure might not change, but I'm thinking the median figure will go down. Average NFL career is 3.5 years, so majority of rookies will not outlive their rookie salary. The teams can avoid a huge mistake like Russell, but the owners might figure just to use up players and get new ones cheap. That mentality cannot be good for players. Star players are going to do fine, but I think the gap between haves and have-nots will grow. We'll see how this plays out in the net few years.

[dw49]

Assuming every team spends all their cap space, the average figure might not change, but I'm thinking the median figure will go down. Average NFL career is 3.5 years, so majority of rookies will not outlive their rookie salary. The teams can avoid a huge mistake like Russell, but the owners might figure just to use up players and get new ones cheap. That mentality cannot be good for players. Star players are going to do fine, but I think the gap between haves and have-nots will grow. We'll see how this plays out in the net few years.

I would think that if each team spends 120 million , the money saved on huge contracts for the first 10 players drafted should go the veteren players. I think that 3.5 average you site is due to all the fringe players that fill out the last 10-12 spots on rosters. They make a team or practice squad and are often cut after a year and sometimes only might last only a few months. It's kind of like comparing the average life span of 73 now to that of 42 (estimates) in 1840. Much of the difference was due to infant mortality at chidbirth. I think the players that are legit guys and not getting league minimum have a far longer "average career " than 3.5 years. I don't for the life of me see how not paying out 50 million over 7 years to rookies can do anything but bring the average salary of the established players up ....considering the teams have to spend 89% of the cap. I think you are right on it takes time to see how the contact plays out but I do think they got this one right. Both sides wanted to end the crazy deals for rookies. It was a no brainer. There could indeed end up to somehow be a bigger bridge between the stars and average players but I think that would be a result of the free agent system with teams over paying for the available good free agents. we are seeing this now . This year CB's that were a little better than average got 10 million a year. WR's Garcon and Robinson were vastly overpaid. So I agree with your assertion but I don't see how you cab say its a result of fixing those ridiculous contracts.

[dgambill]

That number looks about right after factoring in our draft picks next year and who we sign this year. That is still a ton of cap space. Very similar to like what the Buccaneers had to spend. We could easily make splashes like that signing 4 or 5 big guys in FA or simply spread it around signing 7 or 8 really good ones and possibly not using it all.

The new salary scale is great for veterens. The money still has to get spent it just goes to vets instead of rookies. Proven players as opposed to unproven. What will happen I think is you will have a lot of young players holding out in years 3 and 4 trying to get new contracts. Perhaps even after only one or two productive years. You will see vets getting overpaid contracts based off what they used to be like Finnegan. What will definately happen is trading draft picks will become a lot more active. Like we saw this year....teams willing to move up and down the board because the cost isn't as much for those first round picks at the top. It also makes Restricted FA a thing of the past pretty much. No way a guy is going to give up a first round draft pick that will cost a fraction of what it used to and then still have to pay a ton to sign the FA. A lot of change. I won't be expecting too much from the staff this year. Improved effort and play but won't expect a huge leap but next year and the draft next year I will be expecting a competitive team that should be fighting for playoff contention.

[BayAreaBronco]

I would think that if each team spends 120 million , the money saved on huge contracts for the first 10 players drafted should go the veteren players. I think that 3.5 average you site is due to all the fringe players that fill out the last 10-12 spots on rosters. They make a team or practice squad and are often cut after a year and sometimes only might last only a few months. It's kind of like comparing the average life span of 73 now to that of 42 (estimates) in 1840. Much of the difference was due to infant mortality at chidbirth. I think the players that are legit guys and not getting league minimum have a far longer "average career " than 3.5 years. I don't for the life of me see how not paying out 50 million over 7 years to rookies can do anything but bring the average salary of the established players up ....considering the teams have to spend 89% of the cap. I think you are right on it takes time to see how the contact plays out but I do think they got this one right. Both sides wanted to end the crazy deals for rookies. It was a no brainer. There could indeed end up to somehow be a bigger bridge between the stars and average players but I think that would be a result of the free agent system with teams over paying for the available good free agents. we are seeing this now . This year CB's that were a little better than average got 10 million a year. WR's Garcon and Robinson were vastly overpaid. So I agree with your assertion but I don't see how you cab say its a result of fixing those ridiculous contracts.

OK, I as missing a crucial info of 89% min spending. That makes more sense. Thanks for writing this up.

So if nothing else, it would affect only the fringe veterans. Abundance of cheap labor normally puts pressure on wages, but it might be entirely moot with 89% min spending perhaps...

[dw49]

OK, I as missing a crucial info of 89% min spending. That makes more sense. Thanks for writing this up.

So if nothing else, it would affect only the fringe veterans. Abundance of cheap labor normally puts pressure on wages, but it might be entirely moot with 89% min spending perhaps...

Wow , someone on a board that actually said maybe they were wrong. Not a usual occurance. I do think this part of the agreement was a winner for both sides. I tried to copy and post a chart that shows how the new agreement raises the minimum salary for veteren players in 2012-2014. It's not a huge jump but it's another nice little "kick" for the vets that are not the "stars" of ghe league. If you google "nfl minimum salaries" it was the first site that came up for me. It was the only one that showed what the increases were for the players in the coming three years. Later....

[BayAreaBronco]

Wow , someone on a board that actually said maybe they were wrong. Not a usual occurance. I do think this part of the agreement was a winner for both sides. I tried to copy and post a chart that shows how the new agreement raises the minimum salary for veteren players in 2012-2014. It's not a huge jump but it's another nice little "kick" for the vets that are not the "stars" of ghe league. If you google "nfl minimum salaries" it was the first site that came up for me. It was the only one that showed what the increases were for the players in the coming three years. Later....

Thanks, I found the chart. I'm glad players didn't make this particular mistake that I thought they did. I appreciate your knowledge in this area and pointing out my false assumptions.

[dw49]

Thanks, I found the chart. I'm glad players didn't make this particular mistake that I thought they did. I appreciate your knowledge in this area and pointing out my false assumptions.

No problem , I've made enough mistakes trying to follow what both sides are trying to do through the years. Too bad with all that money that the players and owners are at such odds. Seems like there should be plenty of money to go around for everyone. I was just thinking a bit about Brees and how he wats a bit more then the 18 or so mill that PM and Manning make. Why in the world would anyone need to make 20 million a year whie teammates are making 500K. Too bad they just don't cap the top salary at arounf 15 million or less. Not saying that the players are more greedy than the owners .. actually think it's the other way around. Just can't see contracts in the 20 mill range.

[jimirsaysdog]

it's all speculative. no one knows which players have escalators in their contracts and for how much those are worth. some have them incrementally too.

[ztboiler]

That number looks a bit small to me. I've read where it should be closer to 60-70 million , which makes sense. All we have is Wayne and Mathis making over 5 million per year. Hard to believe we would only have 19 mill more than the Texans onsidering the two rosters. All the dead cap money has been applied to 2012. I really do belive that they have a bad figure here.

Depends on where you start counting the money. If what you really want is an "effective spending # for new free agents" then it is a pretty quick equation. Dead Cap 2012 + Cap hit of contracts expiring + Cap Increase 2013 - escalating cap hits from current contracts - spending to retain your own key FA's - rookie premiums on high draft picks.

For easy figuring, let's say that the Salary Cap increase and the rookie premiums will offset each other. That gives the colts a projected equation of:

$38 Mill dead cap 2012

+ 19 Mill Freeney contract

- 7 Mill approx (I have not done the SpotTrac on these but I know they go up...Mathis, Wayne, Luck, Satele, etc. cap hit escalation)

- 12 Mill to resign Freeney and Powers - pick your own # (if they perform at a worthy level)

= $38 Mill to spend on new players or $50 Mill if replacing Freeney and Powers.

You can probably get to $60 Mill + of cap room pretty easily, it just isn't effective cap room to reshape the roster.

[ztboiler]

Depends on where you start counting the money. If what you really want is an "effective spending # for new free agents" then it is a pretty quick equation. Dead Cap 2012 + Cap hit of contracts expiring + Cap Increase 2013 - escalating cap hits from current contracts - spending to retain your own key FA's - rookie premiums on high draft picks.

For easy figuring, let's say that the Salary Cap increase and the rookie premiums will offset each other. That gives the colts a projected equation of:

$38 Mill dead cap 2012

+ 19 Mill Freeney contract

- 7 Mill approx (I have not done the SpotTrac on these but I know they go up...Mathis, Wayne, Luck, Satele, etc. cap hit escalation)

- 12 Mill to resign Freeney and Powers - pick your own # (if they perform at a worthy level)

= $38 Mill to spend on new players or $50 Mill if replacing Freeney and Powers.

You can probably get to $60 Mill + of cap room pretty easily, it just isn't effective cap room to reshape the roster.

Forgot...Must also add any cap room left from the previous year into that equation. Negligible in the Colts case.