How many games will the Colts win in 2024?

[Fluke_33]

I’ll say 17 like every year.  
 

I say it not because I realistically expect that result, but because I cannot fathom going into a season expecting a loss.
if that makes sense 

 

 

I’ll say 17 like every year.  
 

I say it not because I realistically expect that result, but because I cannot fathom going into a season expecting a loss.
if that makes sense 

 

 

I’ll say 17 like every year.  
 

I say it not because I realistically expect that result, but because I cannot fathom going into a season expecting a loss.
if that makes sense 

 

 

[CR91]

On 6/13/2024 at 6:53 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

12?!?        Wowza!

        

 

I just think this team is the most complete I think the colts have been in a long time. Outside of S, this is the one season there aren't questions of concern. Oline and dline return to form and/or have high expectations, QB for everything that's been reported looks healthy and better then last year, no lingering questions about contract disputes or holdouts, and most importantly no off-season drama. 

[coltsfeva]

I’m basically an optimist every year but I don’t see a weakness on this team (other than the secondary which I attribute to inexperience.

 If the pass rush lives up to the hype, that should help the secondary.

 Because the Oline and Dline could be elite and they travel well, and because they have improved their weapons, I like the Colts chances of winning the division and winning 11+.

[Archer]

10 or 11.

[Yoshinator]

I said 9 (and voted for it) when the thread opened. Here's my issue. A lot of people think if Richardson stays healthy, we will make the playoffs. That's only one factor. Richardson has to stay healthy, Richardson has to hit as a QB, the rest of the team has to be at least average to above average, and finally, we have to win our games (which there will be a lot of close ones that have to bounce our way).

 

I'm saying 9 wins (second in the division), and Richardson plays what is essentially his rookie season and does well. He misses a game or two but stays healthier than last year. We make the wildcard as the 7 seed.

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

I said 9 (and voted for it) when the thread opened. Here's my issue. A lot of people think if Richardson stays healthy, we will make the playoffs. That's only one factor. Richardson has to stay healthy, Richardson has to hit as a QB, the rest of the team has to be at least average to above average, and finally, we have to win our games (which there will be a lot of close ones that have to bounce our way).

 

I'm saying 9 wins (second in the division), and Richardson plays what is essentially his rookie season and does well. He misses a game or two but stays healthier than last year. We make the wildcard as the 7 seed.

I agree with all that, but I went 10 wins, make a WildCard as #7, finish 2nd.

[Solid84]

On 6/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, CR91 said:

 

I just think this team is the most complete I think the colts have been in a long time. Outside of S, this is the one season there aren't questions of concern. Oline and dline return to form and/or have high expectations, QB for everything that's been reported looks healthy and better then last year, no lingering questions about contract disputes or holdouts, and most importantly no off-season drama. 

You don't have any concerns or at least feel there are some questions on the team outside S?

• I'm not sure we have the CB group to compete. I hope JuJu and Jones get better, but let's be real our CB room was average at best last season.
• We can't bring consistent pressure on the QB. I hope Latu is the key, but the Colts have generelly been pretty slow to bring along rookies on the Dline. Alternatively Paye has to at least double, but probably triple his pressure numbers...
• AR showed promise, but played 170 snaps last season. We still don't know enough there and some are still concerned about his health.
• And then there is safety of course.....

To be clear, I'm not saying we can't win 12+ games (I hope we do!!), but I think that requires a lot of things to turn out right...

[CoachLite]

22 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I agree with all that, but I went 10 wins, make a WildCard as #7, finish 2nd.

I chose 9 as well. I think there is a trend line that says the Colts may be capable of winning 10 games. But there is a problem in future predictions that says you need to take in consideration regression to the mean, and that takes us back to 9. The Colts can either overperform or underperform from that basis, but those would be exceptions.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, CoachLite said:

I chose 9 as well. I think there is a trend line that says the Colts may be capable of winning 10 games. But there is a problem in future predictions that says you need to take in consideration regression to the mean, and that takes us back to 9. The Colts can either overperform or underperform from that basis, but those would be exceptions.

Fair enough, health plays a huge role too. 

[CR91]

4 hours ago, Solid84 said:

You don't have any concerns or at least feel there are some questions on the team outside S?

• I'm not sure we have the CB group to compete. I hope JuJu and Jones get better, but let's be real our CB room was average at best last season.
• We can't bring consistent pressure on the QB. I hope Latu is the key, but the Colts have generelly been pretty slow to bring along rookies on the Dline. Alternatively Paye has to at least double, but probably triple his pressure numbers...
• AR showed promise, but played 170 snaps last season. We still don't know enough there and some are still concerned about his health.
• And then there is safety of course.....

To be clear, I'm not saying we can't win 12+ games (I hope we do!!), but I think that requires a lot of things to turn out right...

 

We have up-and-coming CBs in Juju, Jones, and Flowers so I'm not overly concerned. 

 

Constant pressure is a concern sure, but 51 sacks is still 51 sacks and that's before adding Latu.

 

170 snaps and yet scored 7 tds and 12 quarters. That's almost a TD a quarter and for everything I seen last year and so far this off-season, im very confident in AR.

[AustexColt]

I hope I am wrong.

 

9 games because our division has gotten alot better and our secondary will be exploited. Zaire will be out due to injuries and we have no back up.  Thin at LB depth. 

 

Richardson will end with a 85% rating due to misreads.  His immaturity will show a lack of poise in the pocket. Lucky if he does not miss a few games due to injuries. 

 

WR/TE ...... no seperation, and TE can't block.

 

 

[Dingus McGirt]

23 minutes ago, AustexColt said:

I hope I am wrong.

 

9 games because our division has gotten alot better and our secondary will be exploited. Zaire will be out due to injuries and we have no back up.  Thin at LB depth. 

 

Richardson will end with a 85% rating due to misreads.  His immaturity will show a lack of poise in the pocket. Lucky if he does not miss a few games due to injuries. 

 

WR/TE ...... no seperation, and TE can't block.

 

 

[IinD]

16-1

 

Gay misses a 68 yard game winner along the way...

[shasta519]

Here is how I see it when comparing this upcoming schedule of QBs to last season:

 

Projected Rookie Starting QBs

 

Williams/Maye/McCarthy/Nix > Stroud/Stroud/Levis/Young/AOC

 

Williams and Maye are more talented than Levis, Young and AOC. Plus, McCarthy and possibly Nix are on better rosters than Levis, Young and AOC were too. Better overall

group of rookie QBs. 

 

Colts went 4-1 against rookie QBs last year. Can't really pick up any more wins than that with only 4 games against rookies this season. Instead, regression could happen. Going from 4-1 to 3-1 or 2-2 is not out of the question, which could steal 1-2 projected wins right there.

 

Projected Divisional Starting QBs 

 

AFCS is stronger now. JAC swept the Colts last year. Stroud will be in year 2. Levis could make a jump (and Tannehill is gone). Colts went 3-3 against the AFCS (with 3 of those games against rookies). I could see a repeat of 3-3 for sure, but it will be a challenge to pick up additional wins here.

 

Projected Proven Starting QBs (actual QB who started)

 

Goff/Love/Rodgers/Allen/Tua > Jackson/Stafford/Burrow (Browning)/Carr/Watson (Walker)

 

This upcoming set of good QBs is better. And even with injuries to Burrow and Watson, the Colts went 1-4 in these games last year. That means there is room to pick up wins, but now they have to do it against a better list of QBs...and their toughest opponents.

 

Projected Bad Starting QBs (actual QB who started)

 

Wilson/Jones > Ridder (Heinecke)/Mac Jones/Pickett (Trubisky)

 

The Colts went 2-1 in those games last year, so best case is 2-0. But going 1-1 is possible too, cause PIT is always a tough team (when Trubisky isn't starting).

TL:DR: I just don't really see where we assume the added wins are going to come from. The projected opposing QBs is stronger across the board. It will take a big leap (from AR, from the defense) to do it. 
 

Last year, they won 4 games against rookies and will face 4 rookies. They won 2 games against bad QBs and only face two of them. There's really only potential for regression here, which will steal wins.

 

The AFCS is also tougher than it was, so it will be hard to add more wins there, though not impossible.

 

And the ONE area where they can add wins is against a better list of good proven QBs, as well as their toughest opponents. That's a tall order…improving win totals by beating more good teams.

 

So to improve on 9 wins, not only will they have to stave off possible regression from wins last year against rookie/bad QBs, but they will have to perform better in an improved AFCS...AND add wins against a much stronger list of good, proven QBs.

 

Winning 6 games seems as or more likely than 10. That’s why I am at 8-9. 

[Chucklez]

On 6/21/2024 at 12:41 AM, shasta519 said:

Here is how I see it when comparing this upcoming schedule of QBs to last season:

 

Projected Rookie Starting QBs

 

Williams/Maye/McCarthy/Nix > Stroud/Stroud/Levis/Young/AOC

 

Williams and Maye are more talented than Levis, Young and AOC. Plus, McCarthy and possibly Nix are on better rosters than Levis, Young and AOC were too. Better overall

group of rookie QBs. 

 

Colts went 4-1 against rookie QBs last year. Can't really pick up any more wins than that with only 4 games against rookies this season. Instead, regression could happen. Going from 4-1 to 3-1 or 2-2 is not out of the question, which could steal 1-2 projected wins right there.

 

Projected Divisional Starting QBs 

 

AFCS is stronger now. JAC swept the Colts last year. Stroud will be in year 2. Levis could make a jump (and Tannehill is gone). Colts went 3-3 against the AFCS (with 3 of those games against rookies). I could see a repeat of 3-3 for sure, but it will be a challenge to pick up additional wins here.

 

Projected Proven Starting QBs (actual QB who started)

 

Goff/Love/Rodgers/Allen/Tua > Jackson/Stafford/Burrow (Browning)/Carr/Watson (Walker)

 

This upcoming set of good QBs is better. And even with injuries to Burrow and Watson, the Colts went 1-4 in these games last year. That means there is room to pick up wins, but now they have to do it against a better list of QBs...and their toughest opponents.

 

Projected Bad Starting QBs (actual QB who started)

 

Wilson/Jones > Ridder (Heinecke)/Mac Jones/Pickett (Trubisky)

 

The Colts went 2-1 in those games last year, so best case is 2-0. But going 1-1 is possible too, cause PIT is always a tough team (when Trubisky isn't starting).

TL:DR: I just don't really see where we assume the added wins are going to come from. The projected opposing QBs is stronger across the board. It will take a big leap (from AR, from the defense) to do it. 
 

Last year, they won 4 games against rookies and will face 4 rookies. They won 2 games against bad QBs and only face two of them. There's really only potential for regression here, which will steal wins.

 

The AFCS is also tougher than it was, so it will be hard to add more wins there, though not impossible.

 

And the ONE area where they can add wins is against a better list of good proven QBs, as well as their toughest opponents. That's a tall order…improving win totals by beating more good teams.

 

So to improve on 9 wins, not only will they have to stave off possible regression from wins last year against rookie/bad QBs, but they will have to perform better in an improved AFCS...AND add wins against a much stronger list of good, proven QBs.

 

Winning 6 games seems as or more likely than 10. That’s why I am at 8-9. 

You are missing out a rather LARGE piece of the puzzle in your factoring here. We had last season's win numbers with GARDNER FREAKING MINSHEW at QB practically the whole season.

Love the guy and what he did for us last season, but he isn't exactly a world beater at the QB position. AR brings such a different dynamic to this offense and teamm, Shane is going to be chomping at the bit to get started this season. The sample size we saw from AR last season was small, but it was definitely encouraging - especially considering we were all expecting him to be much more raw and inaccuarte. He basically red-shirted last year, learning the NFL game and in Steichen's ear the whole time, while learning the playbook inside out. 

Our team has fundamentally stayed the same as last season, which damn near won the AFC South with Gardner at QB for the love of god. Now we add AR to that mix, as well as some very interesting additions in Mitchell and Latu who could have very meaningful impacts. The fact that we are so under the radar is almost laughable - AFC South isnt going to know what hit it.