Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I will say this. Our offense is in a really good spot right now. I should be more excited about adding high end level talent in the secondary. It’s really needed. 

[NewColtsFan]

31 minutes ago, krunk said:

Id prefer one of the big athletic fast wr who can put a body on somebody and block when we need it. Especially since we are going to run the ball a good bit. In Worthy defense what makes him small though is his weight. Not his height. You can add some more lbs on a 6' 1" frame.

Worthy is not 6’1”.   I know that’s what Texas listed him at.  6’1” and 172.   But at the combine he measured 5’11” and 165.   Those are his true measurements.  

[krunk]

26 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Worthy is not 6’1”.   I know that’s what Texas listed him at.  6’1” and 172.   But at the combine he measured 5’11” and 165.   Those are his true measurements.  

5'11" is fairly decent. Not too bad

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

24 minutes ago, krunk said:

5'11" is fairly decent. Not too bad

He is bigger than Downs. I seen someone mention h could be a versatile chess piece for Steichen.

[Smonroe]

34 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He is bigger than Downs. I seen someone mention h could be a versatile chess piece for Steichen.

 

I'm sure he could be.  IMO, his ceiling would be a faster version of TY.  

But unless he's like TY and knows how to avoid hits, guys his size are an injury waiting to happen.

 

Give me a big WR like Thomas JR.  He's almost as fast, and has the size we like in our wideouts.  Let Downs handle the slot.

[MikeCurtis]

2 hours ago, Rhodelesstraveled said:

I'd trade Paye for another pick.  Time to move on from him.  He has never reached his potential.  

Respectfully.  Paye has improved every year

 

My hope is that he takes the next step this year

 

Remember….. he is still on a rookie contract,

 

if he takes a step back this year, then I would consider not offering the fifth year option 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

22 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

I'm sure he could be.  IMO, his ceiling would be a faster version of TY.  

But unless he's like TY and knows how to avoid hits, guys his size are an injury waiting to happen.

 

Give me a big WR like Thomas JR.  He's almost as fast, and has the size we like in our wideouts.  Let Downs handle the slot.

I don’t worry about size and injuries. I have come to realize size don’t mean anything. Some guys just are good at avoiding injuries or just aren’t injury prone. Now saying that I don’t know if he has been injured in college. If not then I say don’t try and create a issue that isn’t there.

11 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Respectfully.  Paye has improved every year

 

My hope is that he takes the next step this year

 

Remember….. he is still on a rookie contract,

 

if he takes a step back this year, then I would consider not offering the fifth year option 

 

 

Colds have to decide on the 5th year by May, 

[krunk]

Everything about Adonai Mitchell says dawg to me! Love the routes and the speed.

[Solid84]

24 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Respectfully.  Paye has improved every year

 

My hope is that he takes the next step this year

 

Remember….. he is still on a rookie contract,

 

if he takes a step back this year, then I would consider not offering the fifth year option 

 

 

Only if you go by sacks. His pressures have dropped each season (39, 34 and 28).

 

His position has changed since his first season here though. He played REO (LEO to us) his first season and switched to LEO (REO to us) his 2nd season and played there his 3rd as well.

[GoColts8818]

I remember on draft night it was noted Paye was never going to be an elite pass rusher so if that’s what people are judging him by perhaps that’s unfair.  He was seen more as a Raheem Brock type, guy who is solid all around, good at setting the edge and can get to the QB sometimes.

[Solid84]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

I remember on draft night it was noted Paye was never going to be an elite pass rusher so if that’s what people are judging him by perhaps that’s unfair.  

I don't know if I'm unhappy with Paye as much as I'm unhappy with Ballard. We needed a pass rusher. I like Paye as an edgesetter, but I really don't want to start an edgesetter.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He is bigger than Downs. I seen someone mention h could be a versatile chess piece for Steichen.

He’s taller than Downs, but not heavier.   Downs is 5’9” and 170.   

[Solid84]

I did some digging on Tyquan Lewis on PFF.com

 

They have a stat called PRP - Pass Rushing Productivity:

Quote

A formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer

 

LINK - PFF's Pass Rushing Productivity I encourage anyone interested in this to go sign up at PFF.com

 

For reference Micah Parsons was the most effective Pass Rusher in the league last season and he scored 12.7. Myles Garrett scored 10.8 and TJ Watt 10.4.

 

Tyquan Lewis was our best guy at DE (by margines) at 9.9. Interestingly he scored quite a bit better rushing from the QB's strong side (Paye's spot) than from the LEO position (Ebukam's spot). Lewis was the 14th most effective DE Pass Rusher IN THE LEAGUE among DEs with 100+ pass rush snaps.

 

On 158 snaps from the REO he scored a PRP score of 11.4 (4 sacks, 5 hits and 23 hurries). On 88 from the LEO he scored 7.4 (1 sack, 3 hits and 8 hurries).

 

I know there may be some concerns about his durability if we up his snaps, but I'd REALLY like to see him start at REO instead of Paye.

[krunk]

9 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I don't know if I'm unhappy with Paye as much as I'm unhappy with Ballard. We needed a pass rusher. I like Paye as an edgesetter, but I really don't want to start an edgesetter.

That wasn't a strong draft for pass rush when Paye was drafted. Paye was one of the best of the bunch even though sack numbers not high 

[DougDew]

Well, to help narrow down who y'all think will be taken at 15.....let's think about which position is the weakest on the team?

 

S....I doubt we take one at 15

CB....Ballard thinks there is talent there?  Drafting more talent might just cause a bottle neck in a season or two while other positions might languish.

EDGE...  Should Paye be playing RDE, or LDE?  Is Ebukam long term, or stop gap, rotational?

WR...Should AP be a #2, or a #4 and first backup to both starting outside WRs?  Special teams too?

TE (Bowers only option at 15)....Like Corner, is there talent there, or are there too many of the same guys fighting for PT?

[Hoose]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Well, to help narrow down who y'all think will be taken at 15.....let's think about which position is the weakest on the team?

 

S....I doubt we take one at 15

CB....methinks Ballard thinks there is talent there.  Drafting more talent might just cause a bottle neck while other positions might languish.

EDGE...  Should Paye be playing RDE, or LDE?  Is Ebukam long term, or stop gap, rotational?

WR...Should AP be a #2, or a #4 and first backup to both starting outside WRs?

TE (Bowers only option at 15)....Like Corner, is there talent there, or are there too many of the same guys fighting for PT?

I think you answered your question. CB, PASS RUSH or WR. 

[DougDew]

5 minutes ago, Hoose said:

I think you answered your question. CB, PASS RUSH or WR. 

Okay then, think about talent over three to 5 years....the term of a 1st rounder. 

 

Will JuJu, Jones, and Flowers develop into something?   Think about ceiling, and what picking a corner at 15 would do if those other corners develop.

 

Paye can flip sides.  Do we pass on EDGE at 15 because we like Ebukam or Dayo or Lewis?

 

Is AP's ceiling a 2 or a 4?

 

It seems that we have a bigger hole at corner right now.  But I think if you look at potential ceiling of EDGE and WR, it seems like those two spots don't have as high of a ceiling?

[ColtStrong2013]

35 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I did some digging on Tyquan Lewis on PFF.com

 

They have a stat called PRP - Pass Rushing Productivity:

 

LINK - PFF's Pass Rushing Productivity I encourage anyone interested in this to go sign up at PFF.com

 

For reference Micah Parsons was the most effective Pass Rusher in the league last season and he scored 12.7. Myles Garrett scored 10.8 and TJ Watt 10.4.

 

Tyquan Lewis was our best guy at DE (by margines) at 9.9. Interestingly he scored quite a bit better rushing from the QB's strong side (Paye's spot) than from the LEO position (Ebukam's spot). Lewis was the 14th most effective DE Pass Rusher IN THE LEAGUE among DEs with 100+ pass rush snaps.

 

On 158 snaps from the REO he scored a PRP score of 11.4 (4 sacks, 5 hits and 23 hurries). On 88 from the LEO he scored 7.4 (1 sack, 3 hits and 8 hurries).

 

I know there may be some concerns about his durability if we up his snaps, but I'd REALLY like to see him start at REO instead of Paye.

I like Lewis. I thought he was peaking when he blew his knee against the Titans in 2022. He recovered well and was good for us last year. I would expect him to see increased usage, especially if he is performing bigger than Paye. The Lewis, Dayo, Paye trio going into next year is interesting to me. Little chance we don’t keep one of them, but it sure feels like it isn’t going to be Paye. So it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. 

[RollerColt]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Okay then, think about talent over three to 5 years....the term of a 1st rounder. 

 

Will JuJu, Jones, and Flowers develop into something?   Think about ceiling, and what picking a corner at 15 would do if those other corners develop.

 

Paye can flip sides.  Do we pass on EDGE at 15 because we like Ebukam or Dayo or Lewis?

 

Is AP's ceiling a 2 or a 4?

 

It seems that we have a bigger hole at corner.  But I think if you look at potential ceiling of EDGE and WR, it seems like those two spots aren't as high of a ceiling?

At this point my guess is BPA and get whoever is the most talented and immediate starter type at a skill position. 

[NewColtsFan]

12 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Okay then, think about talent over three to 5 years....the term of a 1st rounder. 

 

Will JuJu, Jones, and Flowers develop into something?   Think about ceiling, and what picking a corner at 15 would do if those other corners develop.

 

Paye can flip sides.  Do we pass on EDGE at 15 because we like Ebukam or Dayo or Lewis?

 

Is AP's ceiling a 2 or a 4?

 

It seems that we have a bigger hole at corner right now.  But I think if you look at potential ceiling of EDGE and WR, it seems like those two spots don't have as high of a ceiling?

“Paye can flip sides”

 

I assume you’re saying from LDE to RDE?  If so, there’s a problem with that.  Paye played mostly RDE his rookie year.  In the off-season it was determined that Paye has a weak left eye which explained why he had a slower get off from the right side than from the left.  That’s why he was moved to LDE his second season where his play is better.   He’ll play a little on the right side, but mostly on the left. 
 

Our RDE:  Ebukam and Dayo. 
Our LDE:   Paye and Lewis. 

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, krunk said:

5'11" is fairly decent. Not too bad

Yes….  He’s clearly big enough to play in the NFL.   I don’t know if he’ll ever put on much weight.   Some guys never do.  I’m also not sure how polished his game is?   
 

Personally, I don’t think I’d draft him in the first round, but I’d be fine drafting him in the second. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

I did some digging on Tyquan Lewis on PFF.com

 

They have a stat called PRP - Pass Rushing Productivity:

 

LINK - PFF's Pass Rushing Productivity I encourage anyone interested in this to go sign up at PFF.com

 

For reference Micah Parsons was the most effective Pass Rusher in the league last season and he scored 12.7. Myles Garrett scored 10.8 and TJ Watt 10.4.

 

Tyquan Lewis was our best guy at DE (by margines) at 9.9. Interestingly he scored quite a bit better rushing from the QB's strong side (Paye's spot) than from the LEO position (Ebukam's spot). Lewis was the 14th most effective DE Pass Rusher IN THE LEAGUE among DEs with 100+ pass rush snaps.

 

On 158 snaps from the REO he scored a PRP score of 11.4 (4 sacks, 5 hits and 23 hurries). On 88 from the LEO he scored 7.4 (1 sack, 3 hits and 8 hurries).

 

I know there may be some concerns about his durability if we up his snaps, but I'd REALLY like to see him start at REO instead of Paye.

Yep. He had like 37% of the snaps and his pressure rate was third on team. I encourage people to go watch games we won at the end. Lewis was in most of the time at the end  and it was his pressure that won us the game.  I think his snaps could be upped a little bit to keep him injury free I wouldn’t go above 45% or so. I think they found a nice balance and how to use him in the most effective way. 

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Is AP's ceiling a 2 or a 4?

Possibly 2, but time for reaching that ceiling is running out in this organization… I understand he hasn’t had exactly a fair shake with the qb situation, so I’m hopeful we see more of his potential downfield especially. But he’s not exactly the ideal 2. I would think you would want a 2 that has the ability to become a 1 in the next 3 years when Pittman is looking at a new deal. That’s where options come in with a very important offensive position. 
 

But- I agree with this. 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

It seems that we have a bigger hole at corner right now.  But I think if you look at potential ceiling of EDGE and WR, it seems like those two spots don't have as high of a ceiling?

 

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Our RDE:  Ebukam and Dayo. 
Our LDE:   Paye and Lewis. 

Yes, I know the history of Paye and Dayo.  Paye was drafted to be the long term RDE, and that's where he started, but did not perform well enough there.  Dayo is not a bendy guy.  Neither were thought to be coming out of college.

 

How do these 4 compare to some of the best EDGE pass rushers in the NFL?   All either seem like LDE.s tweeners' or backups.

 

Is Ebukam the long term solution?  Does his contract reflect this...or a rotational stop gap?

 

Would either Verse, Turner, or Latu be a better RDE rusher than what we have...a long term 3 down threat?  Because EDGE is the most premier position, (the position with the highest value), IMO, than either WR or Corner........ if there is a player to support a top 15 pick.  

[ColtStrong2013]

Just now, DougDew said:

Would either Verse, Turner, or Latu be a better rusher than what we have...a long term 3 down threat?  Because EDGE is the most premier position, IMO, than either WR or Corner if there is a player to support a top 15 pick

I won’t be surprised/upset if we get one of those guys. Preferably Verse/Turner. I also wouldn’t be upset if we traded back and picked up chop Robinson. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

no more 1st round pass rushers.  Thst would be dumb when our dline is full right now and we need a corner. Especially if some of the high rated corners are there. A offensive pass catcher would have a immediate impact.

[NewColtsFan]

8 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yes, I know the history of Paye and Dayo.  Paye was drafted to be the long term RDE, and that's where he started, but did not perform well enough there.  Dayo is not a bendy guy.  Neither were thought to be coming out of college.

 

How do these 4 compare to some of the best EDGE pass rushers in the NFL?   All either seem like LDE.s tweeners' or backups.

 

Is Ebukam the long term solution?  Does his contract reflect this...or a rotational stop gap?

 

Would either Verse, Turner, or Latu be a better RDE rusher than what we have...a long term 3 down threat?  Because EDGE is the most premier position, (the position with the highest value), IMO, than either WR or Corner........ if there is a player to support a top 15 pick.  

I have no problem taking DE in the first.   Been saying that for months.   I’m also fine if we take a DE in the second, but not later.   
 

As to Paye, again, his biggest issue is his eye sight.   That’s why they flipped him from right to left where he improved. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I have no problem taking DE in the first.   Been saying that for months.   I’m also fine if we take a DE in the second, but not later.   
 

As to Paye, again, his biggest issue is his eye sight.   That’s why they flipped him from right to left where he improved. 

We aren’t picking in top 5. We aren’t getting an elite edge at 15.  BTW PAYE got his eyes fixed.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

18 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yes, I know the history of Paye and Dayo.  Paye was drafted to be the long term RDE, and that's where he started, but did not perform well enough there.  Dayo is not a bendy guy.  Neither were thought to be coming out of college.

 

How do these 4 compare to some of the best EDGE pass rushers in the NFL?   All either seem like LDE.s tweeners' or backups.

 

Is Ebukam the long term solution?  Does his contract reflect this...or a rotational stop gap?

 

Would either Verse, Turner, or Latu be a better RDE rusher than what we have...a long term 3 down threat?  Because EDGE is the most premier position, (the position with the highest value), IMO, than either WR or Corner........ if there is a player to support a top 15 pick.  

Paye is a 3 down rusher. We need  elite guy not more good. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

We aren’t picking in top 5. We aren’t getting an elite edge at 15. 

There will be plenty of very good DE’s at 15.     There are years where there are ZERO elite DE’s in the entire draft.  
 

Clowney, Bosa, Bosa, Watt.  A few others.   There aren’t that many who are elite. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Ballard can’t have a team full of dline and tight ends and expect to compete. Then injuries happen and other positions are left with no depth. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

There will be plenty of very good DE’s at 15.     There are years where there are ZERO elite DE’s in the entire draft.  
 

Clowney, Bosa, Bosa, Watt.  A few others.   There aren’t that many who are elite. 

We have enough good. That isn’t what we need. We need elirte .its not smart  to waste a 1st round pick on another Paye. That’s what you would be getting. There are maybe 2 guys who I would consider to be elite and they will probably go before the colts. Turner is one of them.  We have a lot of money and players wrapped up in this dline. It’s not a need unless we had a chance at elite.

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

We have enough good. That isn’t what we need. We need elirte .its not smart  to waste a 1st round pick on another Paye. That’s what you would be getting. There are maybe 2 guys who I would consider to be elite and they will probably go before the colts. Turner is one of them.  We have a lot of money and players wrapped up in this dline. It’s not a need unless we had a chance at elite.

Youre telling me what you want, what you think we need.   I’m telling you they are so rare they’re very hard to come by.   
 

Now you're telling me you think Turner is elite.   Maybe.   But odds are high we’d have to trade up to get him.  And you know what Ballard thinks about trading up in the first.   It’s not happening.   If Turner falls to 15, great, but if he’s really elite how would he fall to 15?   

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, NewColtsFan said:

Youre telling me what you want, what you think we need.   I’m telling you they are so rare they’re very hard to come by.   
 

Now you're telling me you think Turner is elite.   Maybe.   But odds are high we’d have to trade up to get him.  And you know what Ballard thinks about trading up in the first.   It’s not happening.   If Turner falls to 15, great, but if he’s really elite how would he fall to 15?   

I agree they are rare. That’s why you don’t waste a pick at  15 unless the 2 elite guys drop. Which they probably won’t. We can get an immediate impact player on offense or fill a big hole at CB there. Ballard has spent a lot of money on this dline. We are stacked and have a lot of players. You can only have so many or your hurting depth at other positions. Fix the secondary and some of you might be shocked how much better out good dline is. We aren’t bad there at all. But to take another step you need a better secondary. Everyone would blame Ballard again if he took a edge and the pass rush didn’t take a step when he ignored the secondary.

[richard pallo]

8 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Paye is a 3 down rusher. We need  elite guy not more good. 

How about sending Paye in a package deal to the Eagles for Reddick?  They are open to trading him.  The Brian Burns trade was pretty reasonable for the Giants.  Colts might be able to put together something similar that makes sense for both sides.  They really might like Paye to take his place.

[ColtStrong2013]

There's always the possibility that several teams think 2 or 3 of the edge rushers are elite and go above us. That would push some really good players to 15. If we think anyone is elite, then there is a high likelihood that we aren't going to see them at 15. 

[ColtStrong2013]

27 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

How about sending Paye in a package deal to the Eagles for Reddick?  They are open to trading him.  The Brian Burns trade was pretty reasonable for the Giants.  Colts might be able to put together something similar that makes sense for both sides.  They really might like Paye to take his place.

 

Eh, I'd be done trading with the Eagles for a while quite frankly. I think they are always looking to fleece somebody. If they don't want him, there's probably a reason or two. 

[Hoose]

The amazing depth at CB and WR this year suggests that you CAN get an elite player at 15 if you go with one of those positions. My guess is the Colts don’t trade down and instead grab a difference maker. 

[ColtStrong2013]

3 minutes ago, Hoose said:

The amazing depth at CB and WR this year suggests that you CAN get an elite player at 15 if you go with one of those positions. My guess is the Colts don’t trade down and instead grab a difference maker. 

 

I'm not sure depth and elite talent at the top of the class are entirely correlated. There could be a view of tiers, where teams don't exactly view much difference between the top few and the next three to five of the same "tier." I would think that would suggest that you could afford to trade back and still get a similar player at that position, or take the bpa regardless of position, knowing the class is deep on day 2. 

I don't have many expectations for the first round, and i'm always excited to see what plays out. I think we can make an argument for cornerback, receiver, or edge rusher at 15, (or brock bowers)... and i can also see the argument to take one of the top tackles if they would somehow fall to 15. I just don't put a lot of weight into position need. I'm hopeful we address the secondary in the next few weeks so we have some clarity on how they view the room going into the draft (even though it could just be smokescreens to avoid showing their hands). I guess you could argue that not addressing the cornerback position leading up to the draft could be the same smoke and mirrors approach, so that teams may think you are targeting cb when you have your eyes on someone else entirely. I do like the corners and receiver options in the 1st round though. More than anything, I just want talent. 

[GoColts8818]

2 hours ago, richard pallo said:

How about sending Paye in a package deal to the Eagles for Reddick?  They are open to trading him.  The Brian Burns trade was pretty reasonable for the Giants.  Colts might be able to put together something similar that makes sense for both sides.  They really might like Paye to take his place.

I really don’t think Ballard is looking to trade Paye at all.