Wildcard Colts at Bills: Matchup ranks, stats, schedule comp, poll, ++

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Ask East for a breakdown?

 

I'll never be accused of lacking detail or being lazy lol

[krunk]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I think our run D is good enough that we can gamble on the pass D a bit more. I'd like to see a bit more stunting in general, but also a bit more blitzing. 17% is just too low. Not saying go all in like Pitt or Balt, but need to be closer to the average. Their rush O is capable, but it's only decent when set up by the run. I don't see us selling out so much that it impedes our ability to stop the run. They just don't have real bruisers or home run threats. Singletary is breaking away at 4.66. He's productive, but no overly a pile mover either. Zack Moss is 4.6s too. 

Yet we came out last week playing tight, then went soft too early again and let them back in. I just don't get it.

He tends to do that when we get a good lead. I dont know why. But its one and done on Sat. so homie better bring it!

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, krunk said:

He tends to do that when we get a good lead. I dont know why. But its one and done on Sat. so homie better bring it!

Not just when we have a lead. And yes, really hoping he brings it.

[krunk]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Not just when we have a lead. And yes, really hoping he brings it.

I will say for that playoff game we had against Houston when Luck was here it seemed like he brought out all the stops. Blitz, press, etc.

[krunk]

Seems to me that Buffalo has many of the same cast of characters on D from that time Mack went off on them on the ground.

[EastStreet]

18 minutes ago, krunk said:

I will say for that playoff game we had against Houston when Luck was here it seemed like he brought out all the stops. Blitz, press, etc.

I boy can dream... lol

17 minutes ago, krunk said:

Seems to me that Buffalo has many of the same cast of characters on D from that time Mack went off on them on the ground.

There's no reason we should be successful running against their nickel. Their DL just isn't that good. I do think they will key on our run game a bit though.

[TimetobringDfence!]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I think our run D is good enough that we can gamble on the pass D a bit more. I'd like to see a bit more stunting in general, but also a bit more blitzing. 17% is just too low. Not saying go all in like Pitt or Balt, but need to be closer to the average. Their rush O is capable, but it's only decent when set up by the run. I don't see us selling out so much that it impedes our ability to stop the run. They just don't have real bruisers or home run threats. Singletary is breaking away at 4.66. He's productive, but no overly a pile mover either. Zack Moss is 4.6s too. 

Yet we came out last week playing tight, then went soft too early again and let them back in. I just don't get it.

Our whole coaching staff will make and adjustment that works the some how always revert back to the base method they want to work when it hasn't I dont get. Coach to the flow of success and quit being stubborn. I feel like the coaches are good but need to grow some. Cant be losing games of schemes as much as we do. If it was a lack of talent issue I get it. Really the only game I feel like we had a lack of talent was the second titans game and the Pittsburgh game. Hell and we still got it done on Pittsburgh but coached our way out of a win. Plus some shady officiating.

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

Our whole coaching staff will make and adjustment that works the some how always revert back to the base method they want to work when it hasn't I dont get. Coach to the flow of success and quit being stubborn. I feel like the coaches are good but need to grow some. Cant be losing games of schemes as much as we do. If it was a lack of talent issue I get it. Really the only game I feel like we had a lack of talent was the second titans game and the Pittsburgh game. Hell and we still got it done on Pittsburgh but coached our way out of a win. Plus some shady officiating.

Yeah, I just don't get the coaching. We don't have a talent issue IMO. Not sure I've ever seen such conservative and plain Jane type of stuff. Zero flow and rhythm. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Bills don’t care about running the ball. So all our concentration  on stopping their passing game.

[John Hammonds]

I know we're going to do our best.  And we may pull off a few amazing plays.  But I think we're going to get beat, and not by a little bit.  And I don't mind that.  Not really.  After going 7-9 last year, and looking like we were treading water, going 11-5, adding significant players, getting into the playoffs, only to lose badly to the hottest team in the NFL is ok.

 

It's gonna be a fun game to watch.  We're gonna be very loose.

Have a good game, and go Colts.

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

I know we're going to do our best.  And we may pull off a few amazing plays.  But I think we're going to get beat, and not by a little bit.  And I don't mind that.  Not really.  After going 7-9 last year, and looking like we were treading water, going 11-5, adding significant players, getting into the playoffs, only to lose badly to the hottest team in the NFL is ok.

 

It's gonna be a fun game to watch.  We're gonna be very loose.

Have a good game, and go Colts.

[compuls1v3]

17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I agree with most of this, but have some different takes based on what I read, and knowing the Colts O and D like I do.

 

I do think the Bills will crowd the LOS some, but not as much as against some teams. They are in nickel about 70ish % of the time. I can see Reich trying to expose that with our running game when only 2 LBs (which is most of the time). And I think rushing the edge is the best way to expose that. Rivers is also one of the best in the league at throwing to different guys. We have 9 guys over 200 yards, 10 over 100. Note, Johnson was 7th on that list, and Wilkins 10th.

 

In short though, against Rivers, they can't do what they did vs the Pats and other teams, which is provide a bunch of help vs the #1 WR, or a guy like Eddleman on 3rd downs. They'll have to stay honest or Rivers will find another guy if they help too much. They do a great job in showing a bunch of different looks, and bring help from a lot of different places. Regardless, I think "size" is the best way to exploit that. I'd love to see a lot of 2 TE sets + Pittman. This would be an excellent game to take the training wheels off Patmon too. There's just no way their 5 little DBs can handle a bunch of 6-4+ guys. The only guy in their back 7 with good size if Edmunds who towers at 6-5 at ILB. But he can't cover multiple bigs.

 

I'm also not too worried about our OL this game. Their DL is just not that good. They blitz a lot, yet have a very average sack rate. That should open them up for the right play calls (that assumes Reich makes those calls and adjustments).

 

I agree we need pressure, but if you look at their losses, Buffalo had very few sacks. I do want to see more blitzing than our near league low 17%. That said, I think our DBs can do better than you think, IF ALLOWED to play tighter. Their WRs are small, and we need to smack them at the LOS and get them off their timing. Allen has almost a league high Time to Throw, and any disruption to the WRs, or early pressure will help. If we go soft and don't step up the blitz, he'll kill us. 

 

 

Playing tighter.  That is exactly what I think too.   Too many times, a receiver catches a ball, and our guys are like 3 yards away.  I want to see them hitting the guy as they catch it, instead of being 3 yards off.  Play with more anticipation.  Pressure on the QB will help with that I think.  I'm not saying go hog wild, but definitely a few more blitzes than we've seen in the past.

[Stephen]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

I know we're going to do our best.  And we may pull off a few amazing plays.  But I think we're going to get beat, and not by a little bit.  And I don't mind that.  Not really.  After going 7-9 last year, and looking like we were treading water, going 11-5, adding significant players, getting into the playoffs, only to lose badly to the hottest team in the NFL is ok.

 

It's gonna be a fun game to watch.  We're gonna be very loose.

Have a good game, and go Colts.

Hope not. Need a win so we can pay back kc

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, compuls1v3 said:

Playing tighter.  That is exactly what I think too.   Too many times, a receiver catches a ball, and our guys are like 3 yards away.  I want to see them hitting the guy as they catch it, instead of being 3 yards off.  Play with more anticipation.  Pressure on the QB will help with that I think.  I'm not saying go hog wild, but definitely a few more blitzes than we've seen in the past.

I think there's two things. When in zone, playing closer to the LOS. And also playing more man. I'm fine with most zone, just not so soft so much. Feels like we're in prevent more than half of games.

 

I'm not calling for hog wild blitzing either like Pitt or Balt, but at least a league average of 30ish%, instead of near league low of 17%

[EastStreet]

From ESPN

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30669585/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-round-game-picks-bracket-schedule-odds-injuries-bold-predictions-more

 

I disagree with most of it, as it's not a very deep look, but I did find the bolded red below interesting.

 

Quote

 

No. 7 Colts at No. 2 Bills

Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 73.9 | Spread: BUF -6.5 (51)

 

Wells' pick: Bills 30, Colts 20
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 31, Colts 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 67.5% (by an average of 6.0 points)

 

What to watch for: The Bills are in the playoffs for the third time in four years after a 17-year postseason drought, but they haven't won a playoff game since the 1995 season. This Buffalo team is scorching hot, however, outscoring opponents 229-110 since Week 12. Can a Colts defense that ranked in the top 10 this season in both points and yards allowed slow down quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills' offense? -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

 

Bold prediction: Colts quarterback Philip Rivers will have a season low in pass attempts, meaning 20 or fewer. One of the keys of slowing down Buffalo's offense is by keeping Allen & Co. on the sideline for as long as possible. And the best way to do that is by running the ball as much as possible. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor closed out the regular season by rushing for 741 yards -- including 253 in Week 17 -- over his final six games. The Colts will lean on him even more against the Bills. Rivers' current season low in pass attempts is 21, which he had against the Jets in Week 3. -- Mike Wells

 

Stat to know: The Bills have dropped back to pass on 64% of their first-down plays this season, the highest first-down passing rate by a winning team over the past 20 seasons. That's up from 53% last season. Buffalo's 2,493 passing yards on first down is the NFL's most this season.

 

Matt Bowen's game key: The Colts' linebackers have to close the middle of the field for Allen. How? By using Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke to sink under the deep in-breakers and force Allen to throw the ball underneath. Read more.

 

Betting nugget: The Bills covered six of eight home games this season, tied for the second-best cover rate at home and a vast improvement over their 6-10 mark at home against the spread (ATS) over the previous two seasons. Read more.

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Yeah, I just don't get the coaching. We don't have a talent issue IMO. Not sure I've ever seen such conservative and plain Jane type of stuff. Zero flow and rhythm. 

I think sometimes Frank just tends to get cute and gets away from it is working. He is better than Chuck, at least he goes for it on 4th down quite a bit and at times has a good mixture of runs and passes called. It could be 4th and inches and Chuck would punt. I like it when Frank goes to hurry up as well. Rivers does well in that, we rarely did that in the Chuck days with Andrew.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think sometimes Frank just tends to get cute and gets away from it is working. He is better than Chuck, at least he goes for it on 4th down quite a bit and at times has a good mixture of runs and passes called. It could be 4th and inches and Chuck would punt. I like it when Frank goes to hurry up as well. Rivers does well in that, we rarely did that in the Chuck days with Andrew.

Aside from taking Qs from the analytics card, not sure he is better from Pagano. Frank has a better GM, and better talent overall. Frank's record is not so different from Pagano who had less IMO. If Pagano had Ballard, he'd probably still be here. I like both guys in terms of personality. I like Frank less when it comes to play calling (aside from analytics calls).

[tweezy32]

No matter what Frank.. when it’s 3rd and short or 4th and short and you have brissett in.. don’t hand the ball off.. just qb sneak it.. we always get it and it’s easier then trying to fake them and just running it with Taylor.

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Aside from taking Qs from the analytics card, not sure he is better from Pagano. Frank has a better GM, and better talent overall. Frank's record is not so different from Pagano who had less IMO. If Pagano had Ballard, he'd probably still be here. I like both guys in terms of personality. I like Frank less when it comes to play calling (aside from analytics calls).

I like Chuck and to his defense we do have more talent now but imagine if Reich had 2012-2014 Andrew Luck to work with. In the 2 years Reich has had good-great QB play he is 21-11 with a playoff win. 2018 with Luck = 10-6. 2020 with Rivers = 11-5. Had JB not got injured, it is possible we even finish something like 9-7 last year.

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I like Chuck and to his defense we do have more talent now but imagine if Reich had 2012-2014 Andrew Luck to work with. In the 2 years Reich has had good-great QB play he is 21-11 with a playoff win. 2018 with Luck = 10-6. 2020 with Rivers = 11-5. Had JB not got injured, it is possible we even finish something like 9-7 last year.

IDK man. You're being creative with the logic. How about you give 2012-2014 Luck/Pagano 2018-2019's OL and D?

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

IDK man. You're being creative with the logic. How about you give 2012-2014 Luck/Pagano 2018-2019's OL and D?

I gave you a LIKE because that is a fair point. Obviously our O.Line is a lot better now than it was under Chuck.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I gave you a LIKE because that is a fair point. Obviously our O.Line is a lot better now than it was under Chuck.

I'll amp it up a bit and say if Pagano had Reich's OL, Luck might still be here. He'd definitely be here if Q was here and busted his snowboard.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'll amp it up a bit and say if Pagano had Reich's OL, Luck might still be here. He'd definitely be here if Q was here and busted his snowboard.

Yeah Q would've been all over Andrew for doing stuff like that. When you play pro sports you need to be really careful what you do outside of football to avoid any fluke injuries. I can't remember who it was but it was a popular/good player in the NBA that was just playing a pickup game for fun and blew his knee out and was out for the season. This happened years ago.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah Q would've been all over Andrew for doing stuff like that. When you play pro sports you need to be really careful what you do outside of football to avoid any fluke injuries. I can't remember who it was but it was a popular/good player in the NBA that was just playing a pickup game for fun and blew his knee out and was out for the season. This happened years ago.

Yeah, that stuff happens more than we realize. It's just stupid for guys who are making millions a year because of their fitness/health/bodies, to take unnecessary risks like that. It's like a top concert pianist taking up boxing or logging in their off time... And it's totally selfish knowing an entire team is relying on them to stay healthy.

[krunk]

45 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yeah, that stuff happens more than we realize. It's just stupid for guys who are making millions a year because of their fitness/health/bodies, to take unnecessary risks like that. It's like a top concert pianist taking up boxing or logging in their off time... And it's totally selfish knowing an entire team is relying on them to stay healthy.

Another good illustration on where we can attack Buffalo on the ground.

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/1/6/22216198/film-room-how-the-colts-can-attack-the-bills-on-the-ground-this-weekend

[EastStreet]

22 minutes ago, krunk said:

Another good illustration on where we can attack Buffalo on the ground.

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/1/6/22216198/film-room-how-the-colts-can-attack-the-bills-on-the-ground-this-weekend

I said the exact same thing as Hicks in one of my recent threads. Use the TEs in run blocking (WAM), and hit the edge vs their tiny DBs. IMO, it's a good match up for us if we do that, PLUS throw effectively to the bigs. 

[EastStreet]

Buckner playing per NFL.com about an hour ago.

[matter2003]

Beasley is in...first time Bills have their full complement of WRs in Beasley, Brown and Diggs on the field at the same time in almost 2 months. Definitely excited to see how this shakes out.

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Beasley is in...first time Bills have their full complement of WRs in Beasley, Brown and Diggs on the field at the same time in almost 2 months. Definitely excited to see how this shakes out.

With Moore likely moving to CB2, Carrie can show what he's got vs Beasley. Rhodes and Moore will have their hands full with Diggs. Not sure either one will be 100% though. 

 

Need to pop them early, and give them good rattles at the LOS.

[Boondoggle]

Colts almost succeeded in that first half.  Had good control for the most part, the Bills just have a freak of a QB.  Allen is right up there with Mahomes for me.  If the league were to reload with a veteran draft Allen would be gone in the first two picks. 

 

Still got the second half to go but that drive there at the end had an exclamation on it.  Almost a sense of inevitability.  Hope the Colts have it in them to win this we'll see though.