How often do big free agent signings actually work out well?

[Finball]

Relevant topic for the Colts, I thought it would be interesting to look at this.

This was arbitrary but I defined 'big free agent' signing as one that had at least 20M in total money and 10M in guaranteed money; player also had to change teams. Just to make it more relevant comparison for our current situation.

 

I looked at the numbers from spotrac free agent tracker, they are pretty easy to check there - http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2012/

For 2012, they don't show the guaranteed numbers for all FAs; I checked via google some contracts but mostly assumed anyone getting less than 25M in total money didn't get 10M guaranteed by looking at the contracts where the guaranteed money is shown on spotrac; with Demetress Bell being the exception. That leaves us with 11 free agents.

 

Signings I consider successful, played either up to their contract or better: Peyton Manning, Pierre Garcon and Vincent Jackson. Peyton is obvious. Garcon played all 16 games on 4 out of 5 years. Twice broke the 1000 yard barrier. Jackson got that 3 times. The last two years haven't been good but he would've been relatively low-cost cut if Tampa didn't restructure that deal after year 1. Some, like Eric Wright and Carl Nicks were flat out busts. I don't consider Mario Williams signing a successful one. He had 3 seasons with 10+ sacks but fell off the cliff after that and the money was just too much (6 yrs, 16M avg, 50M total guarantees). 3/11 for good FA signings in 2012 IMO.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2013/

2013 we get 17 signings for at least 20M total and 10M GTD. On a quick look, 12 of those players have been released from those contracts. Didn't check everyone but just looking at the names, one can see that most of them didn't work out well. And on top of that, 3 more contracts were traded. Only ones who have stayed with their teams have been Amendola and Dumervil.. Raven and Pats signings, coincidence? Amendola deal has been restructure but I consider that a hit. Same with Dumervil, though he's bit of a borderline case. 2 very good years, 2 medicore ones. And Ravens had the cap hit very low on the first two years, making the dead cap hit higher in later years if he would be cut.

  Martellus Bennett got traded but he had good years with the Bears. I think that's a hit. Levitre, Ellerbe, Cook and others had too big deals or too many poor seasons for me to consider them good deals. If I'm not mistaken, all the players that got cut didn't even live up to the money until they were cut. 2/18 for 2013.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2014/

2014 we have 23 deals. 8 traded/cut/retired. Byrd, Lamarr Houston, Arthur Jones, Alterraun Verner - all bad ones, though I think the first and last one have been solid this season. Tyson Jackson is still playing on his deal but that might have more to do with how his deal was structured than his ability. 13 bad ones of 23 so far. Golden Tate, Linval Joseph, DRC, TJ Ward, Eric Decker, DeSean Jackson, Jared Veldheer, Demarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and Branden Albert remain. Albert signed 5 year 47M deal with 26M guaranteed. Hasn't been bad but not great either and has missed 13 games out of 48 so far. I'd put that as a bad one. Decker signed for just a little more than Tate and they produced at similar level for 2 seasons but Tate has been able to stayon the field so far; Decker missed 2 games prior to this season and 13 this year. I'd put Decker in the bad signing category, though it's close either way. Still better year than the previous two. 8/23. IMO, Linval Joseph and DRC have clearly outperformed the dollars they got.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2015/

It's pretty early since it's been only 2 years but I think we can get solid generic look. 23 contracts. 3 players cut so far, one traded (Demarco Murray). Murray is working for the Titans but was a bust for the Eagles. I'm not 100% sure how well Tramon Williams has played but I think he's a bust. Davon House ended up basically being a 4th stringer this year. Jordan Cameron and Buster Skrine have been busts easily, same thing with Orlando Franklin, Torrey Smith, Jared Odrick, Jeremy Parnell and Julius Thomas. 4 Jaguars signings already as busts from '15 FA... Anyway, I'm little torn on Pernell Mcphee and Dan Williams; both were very good last year but not so much this year. Same applies for Mike Iupati, except cutting him leaves about 7M dead money with about 2M savings. Maclin is in similar situation. Titans' Da'Norris Searcy hasn't been lights out but solid, has been healthy and is easy cut if needed for next year. Brian Orakpo and Rodney Hudson are for me obvious good signings.  Charles Clay has been good so far but he can't be cut for 2 more seasons; inconclusive. Leaves us with 2 signings; Revis and Suh. Revis was good last year but not worth the money. Fell off a cliff this year and doubt he is good enough next year to justify the deal, if he's not cut before that. I'm of the opinion that Suh had no chance to live up to that deal. He's been very good but that deal is going to hamstrung the Dolphins badly in the near future.

     I got 3/23. Maybe we can put it to 4/23 if we include McPhee.

 

 

Too early for many 2016 contracts IMO.

 

 

Overall that would leave, in my opinion, 16 good big FA signings out of 73, one inconclusive. Maybe one could put it around 20 but not much more than that IMO. Talib was one of the biggest FA signings in 2014 but he's been also one of the best. Contract structure seems to be important too. Raiders deals tends to be bit of a overpayments but there is no signing bonus, no lowered cap hits for the first two years and thus no dead money after year two. Not sure how much options the teams had or how much it would've made difference in money but some signings would've been better if the contracts were structured better, basiclly being easier cuts after the first couple of years.

 

I've written too long to go deeper, like look at which positions tend to be better signings, age etc.

 

TL; DR version: What you probably knew already; most FA signings don't work; many of them are complete busts. But with good luck (no pun intended), scouting and coaching, FA signings can be worth the money. Before I did this, I wanted Colts to be aggressive in FA; and I still do. It just has to be the right guy for a right contract, easier said than done.

 

Thoughts, corrections, additions?

[DaColts85]

Good stuff right here.  I like the idea of what you did and would say the same for the most part.  Around 20 or so out of 73 shows the true nature of FA.  I want us to get some talent but we have to be smart and go after guys who are scheme fits and young.  Easy said then done as you mentioned.

[NorthernBlue]

Considering the Colts are a team that is nearly rebuilding their entire defense from scratch, it would not be smart to dole out huge wads of cash to free agents. I was in the camp of paying Dontari Poe whatever he wanted to get to Indy, but I take it back now. He's a beast no doubt, but I think he's gonna want too much money and if he busts, that'll set the team back even more (and remember, while he's been good, he's not been anywhere near as good as was thought to be after his rookie campaign).

 

I'm leaning towards some more calculated free agent pick ups. Not necessarily players form the bargain bin, but middle tier FA guys. Kinda like Casey Hayward last season. 

 

Good work digging this up. Great post. And it still boggles my mind that there are fans that think going bananas on FA signings is the way to go, in terms of building a contender. Yes, it worked for Denver. It didn't work for Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Washington all those years ago. FA is hit or miss, and more often than not, it's miss. I trust Ballard knows what he's doing.

[throwing BBZ]

I would like to see our New ILB core have a dude eating up the middle.
So i think Brandon Williams would be a guy that could solidify our D for 3-4 years.
 I agree we are in a serious build so it will take at least 2 drafts to acquire some talent.
  Add a quality FA or 2 next season or after to fill out our needs.
And of course some moderate priced guys with upside as our GM sees fit. I expect patience.

[SolomonThomasFanAccount]

1 hour ago, NorthernBlue said:

Considering the Colts are a team that is nearly rebuilding their entire defense from scratch, it would not be smart to dole out huge wads of cash to free agents. I was in the camp of paying Dontari Poe whatever he wanted to get to Indy, but I take it back now. He's a beast no doubt, but I think he's gonna want too much money and if he busts, that'll set the team back even more (and remember, while he's been good, he's not been anywhere near as good as was thought to be after his rookie campaign).

 

I'm leaning towards some more calculated free agent pick ups. Not necessarily players form the bargain bin, but middle tier FA guys. Kinda like Casey Hayward last season. 

 

Good work digging this up. Great post. And it still boggles my mind that there are fans that think going bananas on FA signings is the way to go, in terms of building a contender. Yes, it worked for Denver. It didn't work for Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Washington all those years ago. FA is hit or miss, and more often than not, it's miss. I trust Ballard knows what he's doing.

we can easily get guys like fairley ,jefferson  tier 2 guys at position of need , and sign one or two tier 1 one guys like ingram and be just as effecient 

[NorthernBlue]

6 minutes ago, SolomonThomasFanAccount said:

we can easily get guys like fairley ,jefferson  tier 2 guys at position of need , and sign one or two tier 1 one guys like ingram and be just as effecient 

But this isn't about whether they can or not, because they certainly can. It's about the risk-reward factor and whether or not it would be worth giving so much money to one or two guys considering the success rate of these FA signings have evidently been very poor.

[Superman]

Good research. Big ticket free agents usually don't live up to their contract, they mostly don't live out the contract, and a significant percentage of them are complete busts. Then, you have like 25% of them that wind up being good.

 

There are a lot of factors why this is the case, but this is why you build through the draft. This is why Chris Ballard said 'you can't buy a locker room.' 

 

I have no problem with being a player in free agency, but you have to be judicious, and even when you hit at a higher rate than most, you're still going to have some busts. You just have to make sure you don't cost yourself the ability to keep your drafted players when they hit free agency. Sadly, the Colts don't have to worry about that right now...

[loudnproudcolt]

FA is all about plugging holes when you are at the point where you are trying to get over the hump. That is when it has been most successful, and with the cap teams have, it will be dangerous this year going after certain FA's. Jacksonville the past two years is a great example of throwing money at people.

 

Free Agency to be successful you must do two things. The first is make sure the player you are going after is coming from a similar system as yours, and teammates did not make him look better than he is. I think system fit in the NFL is one of the biggest reasons players become stars, or the coach knows how to tailor the system to them. If they don't fit your system, regardless of name recognition don't do it. Also so many players become good because of who they play next to. Jerry Hughes improved so much after leaving here, but it had to do with their line, and how much it took pressure off of him. Paul Krueger from Baltimore, another great example.

 

Second thing I believe is important is certain positions can be a little independent from system fit. OL, CB's as long as you make sure if they are cover or zone. DL as long as they are coming from the same defense you play. Regardless it is tricky, but my opinion,

 

Williams plays the same system in Baltimore as we do, has been very productive and would be a great replacement for Parry.

I think our OL is in good shape and with the zone read in college now, OL usually take 2 years to develop. The line was growing and getting better at seasons end. I am still worried though about RG and would love to have Lang or Leary. Zeitler may be a little pricey.

I would like Trumaine Johnson for our CB but he is going to get a lot of money thrown his way. Gilmore is going to get tagged, and although as I have said Bouye scares me due to how good Houston's defensive pressure is which helps CB's, I think he would be worth going after.

Last but not least I would love Ingram if the money is not silly, but Parry would be a great one to get also and probably a little cheaper. If we could get 3/4 of these guys, instant plug and plays who I believe would be worth it. We have so much cap space this year and next because dearth of extensions because of Grigson's terrible drafting.

The one thing though I hate is with Cleveland and SF in excess of 100M in cap space, and 6 other teams ahead of us, some people are going to make silly money. NYG signings worked out last year, but they doled out a lot, and this year will be worse. Simple supply/demand. We have to start developing our own players!

[MPStack]

I think if the Colts were 2-3 players away from making a serious run next season, you go ahead and spend on some top tier FA`s. However, the Colts probably have about a dozen positions or so that need upgrades. I would like to see the Colts sign some FA`s, but the reality is that sticking to the draft this season would be the smart play. 

[I'm mad, bro]

7 minutes ago, MPStack said:

I think if the Colts were 2-3 players away from making a serious run next season, you go ahead and spend on some top tier FA`s. However, the Colts probably have about a dozen positions or so that need upgrades. I would like to see the Colts sign some FA`s, but the reality is that sticking to the draft this season would be the smart play. 

We have a ton of needs, that's why we do need to add top tier guys through free agency. Why sit on that money when we dont have any top tier young guys we have to pay when there contract is up? Plus the cap space is ganna be going up progressively over the next few years, so the only excuse not to sign these top guys is that they dont want to come here.

[Finball]

If we break this down by offensive positions we end up with

 

QB: 1/1 - though Mr. Osweiler is going to end up a gigantic bust... if he hasn't already, lol. If you sign a QB in free agency, make sure it's actually a good one. Guess Peyton Manning applies!

 

RB: 0/1. Passing league. Murray was the only big money FA to change teams and was a big bust for the Eagles.

 

WR: 5/12. The busts were Laurent Robinson, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings. Robinson signing never made sense. He had been in the league for 5 seasons when he got his contract and had alreasy been in 3 teams. He had only one season over 500 yards. And on top of that, he was even waived by Chargers on his pre-big contract year, when he ended up with 858 yards and 11 TDs. His 4 year career before that year: 908 yards, 4 TDs. Johnson was just a bad signing from the beginning too, same with Torrey Smith. Maclin could have worked out without the injury and the money wasn't ideal. Other busts catched passes from Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning before their big deals and went on to play for QBs named: Ryan Tannehill, Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel etc.. Hmm..

   However, WRs seem to have good success rate in FA. Even Decker is a borderline good signing, injury and contract structure just weren't ideal. If we make that a good signing, half of the WR signings between '12 and '15 were hits. Interestingly every year there were 3 WRs who got at least 20M with 10M GDT money contract. Same thing in 2016; Travis Benjamin, Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. I think Benjamin and Sanu got overpaid. Jones probably too sine the contract structure isn't ideal, but at least he's a good WR2.

 

TE: 0/3, with 1 inconclusive (Charles Clay). Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas and Jared Cook. Not many good TEs in the league and teams want to keep one if they find one. All those TEs had known issues before the signings were made. Fleener can probably be added to the bust list soon.

 

OT:  1/5. Gosder Cherilus, Jake Long, Branden Albert and Jeremy Parnell as busts. Veldheer isn't a clear hit too because of the original contract structure (and subsequent restructure) as there is quite a bit of dead money left and missed half of last season. Solid player when healthy though. Austin Howard, Anthony Collins and Michael Oher (with TEN) also got 9M guaranteed. Just missing the arbitrary cutoff. Teams don't let good OTs walk without a reason.. and in some cases they never even were good. Mitchell Schwartz signed with the Chiefs last year, one of the best RTs in the game so if he stays healthy, he'll probably end up being a hit.

 

OG/C: 1/9. Carl Nicks, Ben Grubbs, Andy Levitre, Jermon Bushrod (I think he was a tackle with the Bears though), Louis Vasquez, Zane Beadles, Orlando Franklin and Mike Iupati... Ugly list now but not necessearily when they were signed; many were considered among the best interior lineman in the game when those contracts were signed. They just couldn't keep up their play and/or struggled with injuries. Rodney Hudson ended up being the only good signing. Zero dead money left and he's been fantastic for the Raiders. If we take an early look at '16 OGs/Cs; Alex Mack, Brandon Brooks, Kelechi Osemele, Jeff Allen, Alex Boone and Jr Sweezy. Sweezy is going to be bust with like 99% certainty. Mack, Brooks and Osemele were good players back then and still are. The question is can they maintain that play and/or stay healthy. Boone and Allen could en up ok, IMO they got too much money but at least they were competent last season, I think.

  If Osemele stays healthy, Raiders have come as flatout winners when it comes to signings OGs. They sign good players for big money but the contract structure is smart and they fit well what they do. Mack and Brooks don't have ideal contract structure, there's going to be dead money in future years, possible restructures so Eagles and Falcons might end up paying too much in the end. Mack is getting up there in age too, even if he still played like one of the best Cs in the game last year. With Osemele, there's zero dead money left after next year. The price has been heavy (26.4M for 2 years) but I have to think Raiders are happy with that deal right now and looking into the future.

   There's a good chance that, if we count the '16 interior lineman signings that of all OG/Cs signed between '12-'16 only the two Reggie McKenzie signings have worked out. Other 13 signings being more or less misses.

 

Offensive lineman, if they hit free agency, will likely end up as busts, even huge busts, based on FA signings from '12 to '15. It's hard for me to imagine Zeitler just falling off the cliff but the same applied for many good OGs in the past.

 

[Finball]

I missed Martellus Bennett on TEs as well as the timeline to edit posts, so make that 1/4 for them.

[Finball]

Looking at defensive positions

 

Interior Dlineman: 1/7. Desmon Bryant, Arthur Jones, Jason Hatcher, Paul Soliai, Ndamukong Suh and Dan Williams. and being the guys that ended up as flatout busts to overpaid. Bryant has been solid when on the field but not sure if he's been worth that contract. Suh never had a chance with that contract. 2019, he has a cap hit of 28.1M and dead money hit of 13.1M if cut. Great player but worse contract.

   Linval Joseph being the lone good signing. Looking at last years signing, I don't think Jackson will end up worth that deal. Dead money hit if cut after next year isn't that bad (6M) but even then it would end up as 2 yr, 31.5M signing. Good player but probably overpaid when the likes of Wolfe and Daniels got around 10M per year. Damon Harrison is IMO the best run stuffer in the league and was big part in transforming the Giants D, and apparently locker room as well. He got 8M signing bonus so they won't get away without dead money hit if he's cut in a year or two and he doesn't offer much in the pass rush. I'd say if he can maintain this level of play it's a good deal though the money is pretty big. We'll see.

 

Not sure how much this has relevance for the likes of Poe and Hankins. For me it would come down to money. I wouldn't give the projected 13M for Poe, unless it's basically 2 yr deal with little to no dead money after that. Hankins, he shouldn't get Harrison money, even with the jump in cap. He's still young so maybe he has better chance of delivering over the next two years.

 

There have been other good signings for interior Dlineman over the years: Calais Campbell, Jurrell Casey, Geno Atkins etc. But those are pretty rare compared to total number of signings. Good dlineman don't hit the market often. If they do, they'll probably get too much money since everyone wants one. Another position where players don't seem to age well.

 

 

Edge rushers: 3/12. Kamerion Wimbley, Mario Williams, Paul Kruger, Michael Johnson, Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Tyson Jackson, Jared Odrick, Pernell McPhee as misses. Elvis Dumervil, Demarcus Ware and Brian Orakpo count as hits IMO. This from position where players are supposed to age well. I guess some of those misses could be twisted as hits or at least not flatout misses but overall, not very pretty picture. Guy like Houston was probably a miss even if he hadn't torn his ACL celebrating a meaningless sack. Good edge rushers rarely hit the market. However, that may change in the near future as salaries continue to skyrocket. Not sure if the success rate changes though; Olivier Vernon is a good player but probably not 5 yr, 85M, 52.5M GDT kind of contract good. I'd assume Ingram is looking something similar.

  Seahawks signed Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to 1 yr, 5M and 2 yr, 13M deals, respectively, and re-signing them before they hit the market again. That's two best edge rushers of the past 5 years to hit FA for peanuts. Some other mid/lower level signings ended up being steals in the end: Willie Young and William Hayes come to my mind. Much harded part is of course to identify those guys and in case of Avril and Bennett, to convince them to sign with you.

 

ILBs/4-3OLBs: 0/3. Phillip Wheeler, Dannell Ellerbe, Karlos Dansby. I couldn't find how much GDT money Lofton got from the Saints back in 2012 so there might be another bust. Not a single successful big fish ILB/4-3OLB signing in 4 years. Trevathan from last year could break that if stays healthy. Dansby could have worked out if it wasn't the Browns that signed him. Good cover linebackers just don't hit the market.

 

CB: 2/12. Brandon Carr, Cortland Finnegan, Eric Wright, Keenan Lewis, Alterraun Verner, Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine, Tramon Williams, Chris Culliver Davon House.. Christ what a list. DRC, Aqib Talib (both in 2014) the only good signings for big money CBs. It makes sense,  unlike the guys they cover who can adjust their game after they lose a step, most CBs can't. Josh Norman, Janoris Jenkins and Sean Smith look solid now but we'll see how they look in 2 years. At least Sean Smith was a Raider signing so no dead money if cut after next year. If he plays like this year, I'd put that as a hit. Had an awful start but improved as the season went on. Dead money number is 6M with Jenkins after next season, so he should hold up for 2 more seasons. Looks like a fantastic signing now IMO. Norman has a cap hit of 14.5M and dead money hit of 6M in 2019 and he turned 29 recently so I'm not as optimistic about him.

 

S: 2/6. Laron Landry, Jairus Byrd, Donte Whitner, Nate Allen as ones that haven't worked out too well. TJ Ward and Da'Norris Searcy signins pass the mark for me. One of the best FA signings in recent history, Malcolm Jenkins, only signed for 15.5M total and 8.5M guaranteed, peanuts for that caliber player and just missed the cut. We'll see how the '16 signins work out (Weddle, Gipson, McLeod), that group has potential as of now.

[NFLfan]

On 2/7/2017 at 5:59 AM, Finball said:

   There's a good chance that, if we count the '16 interior lineman signings that of all OG/Cs signed between '12-'16 only the two Reggie McKenzie signings have worked out. Other 13 signings being more or less misses.

 

Offensive lineman, if they hit free agency, will likely end up as busts, even huge busts, based on FA signings from '12 to '15. It's hard for me to imagine Zeitler just falling off the cliff but the same applied for many good OGs in the past.

 

Awesome research and insight on this thread. 

 

To the bolded, the Mack signing has already worked out. Without him, Atlanta probably does not have the year they had.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

FA is a way to add talent (and man do we need to add talent) as well as the Draft. To ignore FA, and rely solely on the Draft is FOOLISH.

 

As long as the contracts are not stupid and put us in cap h**l and prohibit future resignings.

 

[funktacious2]

On 2/6/2017 at 7:25 PM, throwing BBZ said:

I would like to see our New ILB core have a dude eating up the middle.
So i think Brandon Williams would be a guy that could solidify our D for 3-4 years.
 I agree we are in a serious build so it will take at least 2 drafts to acquire some talent.
  Add a quality FA or 2 next season or after to fill out our needs.
And of course some moderate priced guys with upside as our GM sees fit. I expect patience.

Right on both fronts, we have to be patient as fans. It's not realistic to think even 4 of our 7 draft picks will be high quality starters, maybe 2-3 will surface as game changers, but most others will just be average starters or not starters at all. It takes time to build a roster full of game-changing starters. I hope we can get 2 in FA and those 2-3 in the draft and we can still see a good team next year, but it'll probably take a couple years to shift towards looking as dominate as we all want to be. I feel FA is the place you fill your "needs". Don't rely on filling it in the draft because you'll inevitable be left reaching for someone of bad value. Patch your holes and then go into the draft looking for guys who can make a real difference in your roster.