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taking luck in fantasy football vs not taking luck


CR91

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keep in my mind I do 8 team leagues

 

now I usually can get luck in the third round, but I can also get players like aj green, calvin johnson, and julio jones

 

if I dont take luck, I can usually get brees in the 5th round or 6th round while having a team like lynch alfred morris dez bryant calvin johnson and jimmy graham in contrast if I take luck, I get a team of lynch morris dez andre johnson julius thomas 

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I would pass on Brees if Big Ben or Eli were still on board. If you don't get Rogers or Luck there is not that much difference between #3 to #8 QBs in the years end.

 

brees still put up close to 5000 yards and 30 tds

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brees still put up close to 5000 yards and 30 tds

My comment was in reference to adding better players to your fantasy roster after Rogers and Luck are gone. Those IMO are the only two QBs worth taking before the 3rd round. In terms of fantasy points there is not that much of a difference between points scored by QBs after those two. Manning might be higher but I don't see him putting up huge numbers this season like in the past. Most all the QBs are capable of putting up big points in any game but it's hit or miss most of the time.

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I agree. By the time the last two rounds get there it is almost impossible to find players who will help you win.

I play mostly 10 team leagues, and thats not true. There are always a few productive guys sitting on waiver wire throughout the season. Its not uncommon to pick a guy up and insert him into your lineup the day before a productive outing. Especially true if you know how to play matchups.

For example, Dwayne Allen sat on FA for half the season. Another owner switched his defense weekly based on who was playing Tampa or Jacksonville.

12 and 14 team leagues its much harder to find talent for your bench spots, but not impossible if you do your research.

As far as Luck vs not Luck, I have Luck rated as the top FF QB this year. But if you miss out on the top guys, than I would be okay with drafting a tandem like Romo/Rivers for example, and not much production woukd be lost if you are making the right decision every week.

The thing is, you have to get a read on what the other owners are going to do. If all the other owners are locking down their QB early, and you got 8 QBs going in the first two rounds, Luck is a great pick as early as #1 overall. If you pick Luck in the first, youll be kicking yourself if Brees is still there in rd 6, Romo is there in rd 9, and Rivers is there in rd 12.

You might be better off targetting someone who isnt getting hyped later in the draft, like a Matt Ryan or Cam Newton. Picking Luck early is a risky move if you dont have an indication as to how high the rest of the owners are valuing the QB slot.

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I play mostly 10 team leagues, and thats not true. There are always a few productive guys sitting on waiver wire throughout the season. Its not uncommon to pick a guy up and insert him into your lineup the day before a productive outing. Especially true if you know how to play matchups.

For example, Dwayne Allen sat on FA for half the season. Another owner switched his defense weekly based on who was playing Tampa or Jacksonville.

12 and 14 team leagues its much harder to find talent for your bench spots, but not impossible if you do your research.

As far as Luck vs not Luck, I have Luck rated as the top FF QB this year. But if you miss out on the top guys, than I would be okay with drafting a tandem like Romo/Rivers for example, and not much production woukd be lost if you are making the right decision every week.

The thing is, you have to get a read on what the other owners are going to do. If all the other owners are locking down their QB early, and you got 8 QBs going in the first two rounds, Luck is a great pick as early as #1 overall. If you pick Luck in the first, youll be kicking yourself if Brees is still there in rd 6, Romo is there in rd 9, and Rivers is there in rd 12.

You might be better off targetting someone who isnt getting hyped later in the draft, like a Matt Ryan or Cam Newton. Picking Luck early is a risky move if you dont have an indication as to how high the rest of the owners are valuing the QB slot.

Picking Luck early is not a risky move as long as you do well in the total draft. If he is there in the 3rd round I would pick him or Rogers every time. It is possible to win with any QB if the rest of your roster is top notch but it helps when your QB is in the top 3 in the league in points. Everyone has a different strategy when drafting so sometimes some will butt heads during the draft. What makes FF so great is no one really knows who is going to shine from one week to the next. It can be a kicker who gets a high score and win you a game.

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Picking Luck early is not a risky move as long as you do well in the total draft. If he is there in the 3rd round I would pick him or Rogers every time. It is possible to win with any QB if the rest of your roster is top notch but it helps when your QB is in the top 3 in the league in points. Everyone has a different strategy when drafting so sometimes some will butt heads during the draft. What makes FF so great is no one really knows who is going to shine from one week to the next. It can be a kicker who gets a high score and win you a game.

If you pick Luck in the 3rd round, I wouldnt consider that risky. If you pick Luck at 3 overall because you're afraid of off the good QBs being off the board by your pick in the second round...thats taking a risk.

I've been in drafts where the top QBs dont get picked until round 3 or 4. Ive also been in drafts where 5 QBs went in the first round very unexpectedly, and several more came off the board before I finally picked Jay Cutler in the 8th round as the 13th QB drafted overall. In other words, I got burned by not "overdrafting" a QB in a league where everyone else was. But it can go both ways. You can also get burnt by drafting QB in rd 1 or 2 and left staring at a more than capable option you can't believe fell to rd 6 or 7.

Last year I drafted Luck around rd 4 (10 teams) and was happy with the selection. But Rivers fell to like rd 10 or 11, and in hindsight I wished I would have passed on Luck and waited for a guy to slip through the cracks.

A guy like Rivers in rd 10 is obviously more value than Luck in rd 4, (despite scoring less points) and winning in FF is all about finding better relative value than the other owners playing with you.

On the same coin, if everyone rushes to lock up their QB early, picking Luck in rd 1 is better value than the guy who panicked and picked Eli Manning at the beginning of round 3 in this hypothetical scenario.

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You can always get QB talent in rounds 10-12. Honestly I don't even look at them until after round 8.

I enjoy getting my QBs late as well. The extra talent and depth can lead to a trade for a QB if you feel it will round out your roster better. I do this particularly when the QBs I would consider taking early are gone.

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I have seen it pointed out before that Quarterbacks have one of the lowest bust rates in fantasy football.

 

So there is an argument for taking a QB early in that RB's, WR's and TE's are just more likely to bust for one reason or another then QB.  

 

I am considering taking a QB early this year, I havn't previously but I've only played FF two years and in both those years I've seen people had their FF teams carried to great records by having a great QB who scores tons of points.

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I have seen it pointed out before that Quarterbacks have one of the lowest bust rates in fantasy football.

 

So there is an argument for taking a QB early in that RB's, WR's and TE's are just more likely to bust for one reason or another then QB.  

 

I am considering taking a QB early this year, I havn't previously but I've only played FF two years and in both those years I've seen people had their FF teams carried to great records by having a great QB who scores tons of points.

 

There aren't any absolutes, and no can't misses.

 

It all comes down to where you draft, how you feel about certain players, and depth of position. Their match ups, bye weeks, and covering for injury prone players.

 

Then you come to the reality that none of that matters as much as being diligent with waivers, and a lot of luck. Those can overcome less than hoped for drafts.

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After his last two years of FF performance, i dont think there is any way he survives to the 3rd round.  He was a second round pick for many people last year i saw.  With his new weapons and more balanced offense (fingers crossed), i see him putting up big numbers near the endzone.  It depends on your draft position and style.  If you are pick number one and its a snake draft...go for luck as your second/third pick. 

 

Ive done 3 years of FF and I swear i have not drafted lower than 3rd. Last year i was in 3 leagues...drafted 1, 1, and 2.  It sucks being in those positions so going for a good QB early is almost necessary as all the good WR's and RB's are gone by the time you get to your pick again. 

 

However, those were 10 team leagues so maybe it is different with 8 teams, but i doubt its taht drastically different. 

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  • 1 month later...

              It really seems to me that the leagues I am ending up in must be strange, both in draft strategy and scoring.  

The top three quarterbacks (Luck, Rodgers, Brees) have been gone by the end of the second round in every draft I have been in, and most of the QBs in my leagues the last two years have outscored the skill players. I suspect I might have my preferences set for something that favors the QB, but looking back at stats this is true in 3/4 of our leagues, excluding the ppr league.  

  I decided to wait in one league this year and was surprised and pleased to get (imo) 3 of the best RBs with my first three picks. However, after snagging Lacy, Forte, and Le'Veon Bell my fourth pick was between the top 2 qbs left (Kaepernick & Palmer) and A.J. Green....so at least I got a decent receiver hahaha,

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It really seems to me that the leagues I am ending up in must be strange, both in draft strategy and scoring.

The top three quarterbacks (Luck, Rodgers, Brees) have been gone by the end of the second round in every draft I have been in, and most of the QBs in my leagues the last two years have outscored the skill players. I suspect I might have my preferences set for something that favors the QB, but looking back at stats this is true in 3/4 of our leagues, excluding the ppr league.

I decided to wait in one league this year and was surprised and pleased to get (imo) 3 of the best RBs with my first three picks. However, after snagging Lacy, Forte, and Le'Veon Bell my fourth pick was between the top 2 qbs left (Kaepernick & Palmer) and A.J. Green....so at least I got a decent receiver hahaha,

At the time of my last post, luck was a late 2nd round early third round. Lately both luck and Rodgers have moved up to being early second round picks.

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