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AFC playoff picture

tonychen

By tonychen
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tonychen Walk On

tonychen

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I think the AFC playoff picture is pretty clear after wk7:

 

AFC west:

Chiefs has an extremely easy schedule except for the two game with Denver and one with Colts. I think they split with Denver and win Colts at home especially after Wayne is out for season. They may lose one to Chargers but still can finish 14-2 as the #1 seed.

Broncos could lose one to Chiefs and may lose one to Pats and finish 13-3. Even if they win the Pats one and finish 14-2 they lose the tie break and get a wildcard spot.

Chargers might get a chance to fight for the 2nd wildcard.

 

AFC east: Pats against three inconsistent and mediocre teams. Pats take the division with a 11-5 or 10-6 record. Jets might get 9-7 and fight for a wildcard spot but it will be hard.

 

AFC north: Bengals win with 11-5 or 10-6 and wins a tie break against Pats. Steelers and Ravens fight with Jets for wildcard.

 

AFC south: Colts win the week division with 9-7 record. Wayne is gone so Colts may split with Houston and Titans, lose to Chiefs and Bengals, lose one on the road against NFC west, and still win the division.

 

Wildcard round will be Ravens/Steelers/Jets/Chargers at Pats, and Broncos at Colts.

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tonychen Walk On

tonychen

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LOL at losing Wayne being the reason we finish 9-7

 

Wayne is the 3rd targeted WR in the entire league, only behind Calvin Johnson and AJ Green. He serves as Luck's security blanket and none of the other WRs on the roster is a possession receiver that can function like Wayne. Fleener could play this role but he has lots of drops that kill drives. Lets see how creative they are to design a game plan accordingly. But the division is so week that Colts can still win it easily.

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tonychen Walk On

tonychen

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If the Colts go 9-7 they may not win the division. I would think 10-11 wins is more likely.

 

So who else in the division do you think could reach 9-7? Titans is now at 3-4 and has yet to play Colts (twice) and Denver, and their old coach Jeff Fisher should find a way to beat them.

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amfootball Walk On

amfootball

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So who else in the division do you think could reach 9-7? Titans is now at 3-4 and has yet to play Colts (twice) and Denver, and their old coach Jeff Fisher should find a way to beat them.

Titans and even Houston who have yet to play Colts yet. Honestly, I think Colts win double digits though. 9 wins will make things tight.

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SkyBane Walk On

SkyBane

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The Colts are not a 9 win team, even without Reggie. That completely discounts the stellar secondary play thats been the actual reason this Colts team wins games. 10-11 wins is far more likely, especially given the schedule gets far easier now than it has been.

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tonychen Walk On

tonychen

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The Colts are not a 9 win team, even without Reggie. That completely discounts the stellar secondary play thats been the actual reason this Colts team wins games. 10-11 wins is far more likely, especially given the schedule gets far easier now than it has been.

 

A problem for this year's Colts is they play to the level of their opponents. Without Wayne it will be a little harder to play the type of ball-control games, which may not necessarily a bad thing considering how that worked in the Chargers' game. But still the two road games at Houston and Titans could be critical.

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IndyScribe Walk On

IndyScribe

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A problem for this year's Colts is they play to the level of their opponents. Without Wayne it will be a little harder to play the type of ball-control games, which may not necessarily a bad thing considering how that worked in the Chargers' game. But still the two road games at Houston and Titans could be critical.

Except for Jacksonville.

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HtownColt Walk On

HtownColt

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Wayne is the 3rd targeted WR in the entire league, only behind Calvin Johnson and AJ Green. He serves as Luck's security blanket and none of the other WRs on the roster is a possession receiver that can function like Wayne. Fleener could play this role but he has lots of drops that kill drives. Lets see how creative they are to design a game plan accordingly. But the division is so week that Colts can still win it easily.

Wayne(57 targets) has 5 more targets than TY Hilton(52 targets) according to Pro Football Focus

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1819907-indianapolis-colts-what-you-need-to-know-heading-into-week-8

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chad72 Ring of Honor

chad72

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#1 Chiefs 14-2 (losses at Broncos and at Chargers)

#2 Bengals 13-3 (with tie-breaker vs Colts)

#3 Patriots 12-4 (strength of schedule over Colts)

#4 Colts 12-4 (losses at Cin and KC)

#5 Broncos 13-3

#6 Chargers 10-6

 

The Broncos vs Chiefs fight for the AFC West will come down to the last game where the Chiefs play at the Chargers. I can see Broncos going 14-2 and Chiefs going 13-3 to swap for #5 too.

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Jason_ Hall of Famer

Jason_

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Wayne is the 3rd targeted WR in the entire league, only behind Calvin Johnson and AJ Green. He serves as Luck's security blanket and none of the other WRs on the roster is a possession receiver that can function like Wayne. Fleener could play this role but he has lots of drops that kill drives. Lets see how creative they are to design a game plan accordingly. But the division is so week that Colts can still win it easily.

 

He's had 1 drop this year and it did not kill that drive.  

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SkyBane Walk On

SkyBane

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#1 Chiefs 14-2 (losses at Broncos and at Chargers)

#2 Bengals 13-3 (with tie-breaker vs Colts)

#3 Patriots 12-4 (strength of schedule over Colts)

#4 Colts 12-4 (losses at Cin and KC)

#5 Broncos 13-3

#6 Chargers 10-6

The Broncos vs Chiefs fight for the AFC West will come down to the last game where the Chiefs play at the Chargers. I can see Broncos going 14-2 and Chiefs going 13-3 to swap for #5 too.

Dont the Colts have stronger SoS than NE? Besides, conference record would likely be the tiebreaker in that scenario.
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IndyScribe Walk On

IndyScribe

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#1 Chiefs 14-2 (losses at Broncos and at Chargers)

#2 Bengals 13-3 (with tie-breaker vs Colts)

#3 Patriots 12-4 (strength of schedule over Colts)

#4 Colts 12-4 (losses at Cin and KC)

#5 Broncos 13-3

#6 Chargers 10-6

 

The Broncos vs Chiefs fight for the AFC West will come down to the last game where the Chiefs play at the Chargers. I can see Broncos going 14-2 and Chiefs going 13-3 to swap for #5 too.

You saw what a 3rd string quarterback did against KC at Arrowhead. We have a lot higher chance of winning.

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chad72 Ring of Honor

chad72

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Dont the Colts have stronger SoS than NE? Besides, conference record would likely be the tiebreaker in that scenario.

 

  1. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.

 

Let us assume both the Pats and Colts have 3 losses, all in the AFC at the end of the year.

 

Bengals, Broncos, Texans and Dolphins will be the 4 common opponents for both the Patriots and Colts. Assuming we beat the Texans twice and they beat the Dolphins twice, since they have lost to the Bengals, beating the Bengals will almost certainly clinch the tie-breaker for us.

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SkyBane Walk On

SkyBane

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Would be hilarious to see Denver drop to a wild card and K.C. win the division. if they don't get home field advantage they are DONE in the first round. It sure didn't matter last season when they did have the #1 seed.

Peyton is notoriously bad in cold weather. Not playing in Denver may actually help the Broncos.
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tonychen Walk On

tonychen

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Would be hilarious to see Denver drop to a wild card and K.C. win the division. if they don't get home field advantage they are DONE in the first round. It sure didn't matter last season when they did have the #1 seed.

 

It is very likely they would drop to wildcard, but it is not necessarily bad. I guess Manning might prefer the warm Lucas Oil Stadium rather than the single digit temperature at mile high.

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HtownColt Walk On

HtownColt

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#1 Chiefs 14-2 (losses at Broncos and at Chargers)

#2 Bengals 13-3 (with tie-breaker vs Colts)

#3 Patriots 12-4 (strength of schedule over Colts)

#4 Colts 12-4 (losses at Cin and KC)

#5 Broncos 13-3

#6 Chargers 10-6

The Broncos vs Chiefs fight for the AFC West will come down to the last game where the Chiefs play at the Chargers. I can see Broncos going 14-2 and Chiefs going 13-3 to swap for #5 too.

I'm wouldn't consider the Chiefs game a loss, Chiefs haven't played anybody

Chiefs played the Jags, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Titans, Raiders, and Texans, I'll consider them a threat when they actually beat a team that's actually playoff contenders(NFC east doesn't count because they are all below average, cowboys make playoffs by default)

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IndyScribe Walk On

IndyScribe

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It is very likely they would drop to wildcard, but it is not necessarily bad. I guess Manning might prefer the warm Lucas Oil Stadium rather than the single digit temperature at mile high.

Open roof again.

The Colts will have more than 9 wins

Agreed. Our schedule is much easier here on out.

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chad72 Ring of Honor

chad72

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Would be hilarious to see Denver drop to a wild card and K.C. win the division. if they don't get home field advantage they are DONE in the first round. It sure didn't matter last season when they did have the #1 seed.

 

The funny part of John Fox's record is that his teams have a better road record than home record, go check it out.

 

In the wild card round, I might not want to play a QB that scores a lot of points, to be honest. Give me Andy Dalton or Matt Schaub or Alex Smith, it will give my team some room for error should we have a slow start in an important game.

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bap1331 Walk On

bap1331

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I think the AFC playoff picture is pretty clear after wk7:

AFC west:

Chiefs has an extremely easy schedule except for the two game with Denver and one with Colts. I think they split with Denver and win Colts at home especially after Wayne is out for season. They may lose one to Chargers but still can finish 14-2 as the #1 seed.

Broncos could lose one to Chiefs and may lose one to Pats and finish 13-3. Even if they win the Pats one and finish 14-2 they lose the tie break and get a wildcard spot.

Chargers might get a chance to fight for the 2nd wildcard.

AFC east: Pats against three inconsistent and mediocre teams. Pats take the division with a 11-5 or 10-6 record. Jets might get 9-7 and fight for a wildcard spot but it will be hard.

AFC north: Bengals win with 11-5 or 10-6 and wins a tie break against Pats. Steelers and Ravens fight with Jets for wildcard.

AFC south: Colts win the week division with 9-7 record. Wayne is gone so Colts may split with Houston and Titans, lose to Chiefs and Bengals, lose one on the road against NFC west, and still win the division.

Wildcard round will be Ravens/Steelers/Jets/Chargers at Pats, and Broncos at Colts.

On the contrary, I love Wayne but I think this will turn Luck into a Peyton, Brady, Rodgers type system where they spread the ball to all the receivers. He was a little too dependent on Reggie at times and all the cornerbacks would know it's his target. I can see Lucks completion rating going up now...

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BOTT Walk On

BOTT

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#1 Chiefs 14-2 (losses at Broncos and at Chargers)

#2 Bengals 13-3 (with tie-breaker vs Colts)

#3 Patriots 12-4 (strength of schedule over Colts)

#4 Colts 12-4 (losses at Cin and KC)

#5 Broncos 13-3

#6 Chargers 10-6

 

The Broncos vs Chiefs fight for the AFC West will come down to the last game where the Chiefs play at the Chargers. I can see Broncos going 14-2 and Chiefs going 13-3 to swap for #5 too.

You really think the Bengals are going 13-3? Not buying that at all.

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Jules Walk On

Jules

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-The Colts will win more then 9....we have the QB and the rest of the way is the softer part of the year for us now that the big boys we were all supposed to get mauled by are out of the way. We had Wayne in 2011 but no QB....The D will improve and Luck will spread the ball around a lot.

 

-The Colts and Pats will play sometime this postseason. We play every season and we will be due to see them in January. It may be the game of the AFC playoffs too.....

 

-Denver will have a tough time in the playoffs again. They are a soft team with a soft coach.

 

-Cincy should not be overlooked. Talented team who like us can hang with the better teams on their schedule but sometimes lay an egg vs. teams that are lesser then they are.

 

-Not sure yet about KC. Perhaps they are a team of destiny or something if they can actually manage to win the division. Or perhaps not...we'll see later on and how the rest of their season goes.

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BOTT Walk On

BOTT

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On the contrary, I love Wayne but I think this will turn Luck into a Peyton, Brady, Rodgers type system where they spread the ball to all the receivers. He was a little too dependent on Reggie at times and all the cornerbacks would know it's his target. I can see Lucks completion rating going up now...

He was dependent on Reggie because Reggie ran the best routes and had the best hands. Other guys have to pick it up.

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BOTT Walk On

BOTT

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Peyton is notoriously bad in cold weather. Not playing in Denver may actually help the Broncos.

Dome teams are notoriously bad in poor weather. I don't know if he is poor in bad weather or not, but the proof that he is is pretty flimsy.

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tonychen Walk On

tonychen

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On the contrary, I love Wayne but I think this will turn Luck into a Peyton, Brady, Rodgers type system where they spread the ball to all the receivers. He was a little too dependent on Reggie at times and all the cornerbacks would know it's his target. I can see Lucks completion rating going up now...

 

I agree and it is now time to see whether Luck is a good or great QB. Great QBs make ordinary WRs into stars.

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