Andrew Luck knows the 49ers defense

[Superman]

That worked out real well for Alex Smith as a rookie, didn't it?

 

Who is the third best team at converting third downs this season?

 

What does Alex Smith have to do with anything? And what does our third down percentage have to do with anything?

 

You know what? Never mind, you're absolutely right.

[BlueShoe]

Don't get over confident though cause some people consider that as being cocky. I think it will be a good game as long as we don't have those same mistake as the last two games.

 

How am I over confident? What does it matter even if I was? I am not playing the game, and the words I type on a message board will have no impact on the outcome of the game. 

[BlueShoe]

OK, but seriously.

 

SF pass rush will probably harass Luck ALL game.  Going to have to get the hot read thing down if we want to have a shot in this one.

 

We saw a better front seven from Miami, and the Raiders front seven was much better than people thought it would be this year too. Oakland is rated as the 5th best defense in the league right now. Oakland has 9 sacks this year (tied for first in the NFL).

 

OUR DEFENSE is very similar to San Fran's in statistics

[Jules]

How am I over confident? What does it matter even if I was? I am not playing the game, and the words I type on a message board will have no impact on the outcome of the game. 

 

I agree with you. I don't see the big deal if fans sometimes get optimistic before a game. I mean if we lose I am going to eventually be fine and brush it off. It's just a game. Nothing we say matters anyway like you said.

 

Personally I think SF is a good football team but not the powerhouse at times people make them out to be. Kaep is still a new/young QB himself and can be mistake prone. Whether we can get to him or not remains to be seen.

 

Their D has been had a lot more then people think since last year. In 2011 I thought they were stellar but cracks started to show as time went on. Yes and they did beat GB again week 1 but for some reason right now it seems they always beat them even if Rodgers plays a good game.

[Stephen]

When has Andrew played a defense as good/nearly as good as the 49ers on the road?  How did that turn out?

the bears his first game and the jets pass defense.

[BlueShoe]

What does Alex Smith have to do with anything? And what does our third down percentage have to do with anything?

 

You know what? Never mind, you're absolutely right.

 

I guess you do not remember Alex Smith's first game against the cover 2. Let me refresh your memory. It was against Indy and he had a horrible day. 

 

The point is that no defense is easy for a quarterback that does not have experience against it. This is KEY. Experience. Luck has that against the 49ers. 

 

Third down percentage has to do with a lot of everything and we are the third best in the league at converting third downs. And don't give the "we haven't played anyone yet" either, because Oakland is the 5th best rated defense in the league right now and we know how good Miami is.

[MAC]

San Fran defense is not exactly setting the world on fire right now. They are 24th against the run and 10th against the pass. When a team is not doing well against the run and is on paper, good against the pass, then we know all to well what that really means. It means that teams are running on them for a reason. They have given up 4 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns in 2 games. 

 

The stat that sticks out more than anything is how they have given up 42 first downs (15 against the run and 21 against the pass). This should sound familiar, because it is very close to what the Colts have given up, and we know that we have had our own issues. But we are a young team that is in the early stages of gelling as a cohesive unit. The 49ers defense has been intact for a while now. I believe we will exploit them on the ground and through the air. 

 

Where the 49ers have done well is on third down defense, but that stat can be misleading because we don't know the down and distance average. I would think the down and distance on third downs for the 49ers defense has been long, because they have given up more first downs than we have. On the other hand, our offense is THIRD in the entire league at converting third downs. Something is going to give Sunday, and my money is on Andrew Luck converting third downs and winning this game. 

Stats can be miss-leading - particularly with a small sample size. SF has hosted one of the best offenses in the league and played at the toughest road environment in the league - both serious super bowl contenders. Neither Colt opponent is in the same ballpark.

 

The 49ers issue (from what they pointed out Monday night) is that they aren't running the ball very well. That obviously puts a lot of strain on their defense. Whether the Colts are good enough to take advantage of it (on the road) is an entirely different matter. But whether they do or don't will have precious little to do with your theory. FAR FAR FAR more likely that if familiarity has any impact in this game, it will be in (as others have suggested) Harbaugh knowing exactly what to take away from the Colts offense in order to make them uncomfortable, and in Luck having even less time than normal to make a decision. If that results in turnovers the game could get ugly.

 

Put another way - what did Pryor do to the Colts? What do you think Kaepernick is going to do?

What did the Dolphins pass rush do to the Colts? What do you think SFs pass rush is going to do?

 

How is Luck's memory going to help with either exactly?

[BlueShoe]

the bears his first game and the jets pass defense.

 

Both within his first 5 games ever.

[BlueShoe]

Stats can be miss-leading - particularly with a small sample size. SF has hosted one of the best offenses in the league and played at the toughest road environment in the league - both serious super bowl contenders. Neither Colt opponent is in the same ballpark.

 

The 49ers issue (from what they pointed out Monday night) is that they aren't running the ball very well. That obviously puts a lot of strain on their defense. Whether the Colts are good enough to take advantage of it (on the road) is an entirely different matter. But whether they do or don't will have precious little to do with your theory. FAR FAR FAR more likely that if familiarity has any impact in this game, it will be in (as others have suggested) Harbaugh knowing exactly what to take away from the Colts offense in order to make them uncomfortable, and in Luck having even less time than normal to make a decision. If that results in turnovers the game could get ugly.

 

Put another way - what did Pryor do to the Colts? What do you think Kaepernick is going to do?

What did the Dolphins pass rush do to the Colts? What do you think SFs pass rush is going to do?

 

How is Luck's memory going to help with either exactly?

 

Yeah we can always say stats are misleading depending on our position in the debate. 

 

"Put another way - what did Pryor do to the Colts? What do you think Kaepernick is going to do?"

 

Are you kidding me? It was week one against a very mobile (more than Kaepernick) QB. 

 

What did the Dolphins pass rush do to the Colts? What do you think SFs pass rush is going to do?

 

We did a good job against Miami's pass rush and I would not put San Fran's front seven higher than Miami's. They may be about equal. 

[BlueShoe]

To those who are media struck by the 49ers. They are not unbeatable, and in fact we have the right team to beat them. We can stop the run in between the tackles. It is not the Gores that will get us but rather the quick and fast Darren Sproles who can run around us. 

 

Our secondary has not played its best game yet and I believe San Fran has a problem passing the ball right now. We can stay with their receivers, and we can limit the run. They need to worry about stopping our offense. We are the third best in the league at converting third downs, and that was against 2 very good defenses. We have converted at 52%.

 

Stop listening to all of the talking heads on TV. 

 

If (when) Miami beats Atlanta next week and we beat the 49ers, it will change the landscape dramatically and make a lot more sense. 

[Moose Of Woe]

I am not sure why so many people believe the Colts are going to lose.

 

Knowing the defense is one thing. Having guys in front of you that can actually block them is different.

 

The 49'ers are banged up on D. They've gone from the second best in the league to, maybe, fourth at worst. They're still very, very good.

[Superman]

I guess you do not remember Alex Smith's first game against the cover 2. Let me refresh your memory. It was against Indy and he had a horrible day. 

 

The point is that no defense is easy for a quarterback that does not have experience against it. This is KEY. Experience. Luck has that against the 49ers. 

 

Third down percentage has to do with a lot of everything and we are the third best in the league at converting third downs. And don't give the "we haven't played anyone yet" either, because Oakland is the 5th best rated defense in the league right now and we know how good Miami is.

 

I don't think Alex Smith as a rookie is really comparable to Andrew Luck, even at Stanford. Luck is far more talented. It's certainly not comparable to Peyton Manning against Cover 2.

 

And what I was saying is not that Cover 2 is easy for a rookie, but that it's simpler and more basic than any other defense. I'd rather Luck play against the Niners in Cover 2 than the Niners in their defense, because Cover 2 is easier to navigate.

 

But really, what I was saying is that talent is more important than scheme. It's great that Luck has familiarity with the schemes. But the Niners talent is more concerning to me, personally.

[BlueShoe]

Knowing the defense is one thing. Having guys in front of you that can actually block them is different.

 

The 49'ers are banged up on D. They've gone from the second best in the league to, maybe, fourth at worst. They're still very, very good.

 

I would rather face the 49ers defense than Miami's defense. We handled our own against Miami. 

[The Fish]

This thread is pretty cute. i like it. 

 

Anyway, here's how this thing is going to shake out.

 

Luck is going to be under pressure all after noon to make plays, he'll makes some. The run game will be non existent and Luck will put the ball in the air 40 plus times. He probably throws a T.D and pick for around 250 yards. The 9ers only real issue is it's secondary.

The 9ers O is likely to make this D look foolish if they let Kape run. IF they sit him in the pocket, we've got a puchers chance at keeping the game manageable. If it was just a straight up QB duel I'd feel a bit more confident, but the 9ers are a balanced squad with some elite talent in places where the Colts just don't match up that well.

9ers 30

Colts 17

(darn it) 

[BlueShoe]

I don't think Alex Smith as a rookie is really comparable to Andrew Luck, even at Stanford. Luck is far more talented. It's certainly not comparable to Peyton Manning against Cover 2.

 

And what I was saying is not that Cover 2 is easy for a rookie, but that it's simpler and more basic than any other defense. I'd rather Luck play against the Niners in Cover 2 than the Niners in their defense, because Cover 2 is easier to navigate.

 

But really, what I was saying is that talent is more important than scheme. It's great that Luck has familiarity with the schemes. But the Niners talent is more concerning to me, personally.

 

Then you understand my point, and it is clear now that experience against each style of defense for a young quarterback is very important. I think we would both agree that Alex Smith can handle his own well against a cover 2 defense now, right?

 

Luck is not new to the 49ers defense and that makes it an advantage for the Colts. 

[BlueShoe]

This thread is pretty cute. i like it. 

 

Anyway, here's how this thing is going to shake out.

 

Luck is going to be under pressure all after noon to make plays, he'll makes some. The run game will be non existent and Luck will put the ball in the air 40 plus times. He probably throws a T.D and pick for around 250 yards. The 9ers only real issue is it's secondary.

The 9ers O is likely to make this D look foolish if they let Kape run. IF they sit him in the pocket, we've got a puchers chance at keeping the game manageable. If it was just a straight up QB duel I'd feel a bit more confident, but the 9ers are a balanced squad with some elite talent in places where the Colts just don't match up that well.

9ers 30

Colts 17

(darn it) 

 

Let me get this straight. You agree with me that the 49ers defense has a suspect secondary. That we agree on.

 

I am sure we both agree that Luck is an elite QB, correct?

 

So we agree that we have an elite QB and the San Fran secondary has holes that can be exploited.

 

This is a recipe for Luck ripping the 49ers defense apart. I am not sure why you are not following the same logical conclusion as I am, especially  since we have the same arguments for support.

[Moose Of Woe]

I would rather face the 49ers defense than Miami's defense. We handled our own against Miami. 

 

I'm not 100% sold on Miami being a top 5 defense let alone better than San Fran. (Even a banged up San Fran.) I do think they're easily a top 10 defense, however. 

Even so, Miami doesn't have much of an offense to go with it. (Mediocre at best, led by a below average QB.)  Sure Tannehill looked good against us, but what QB doesn't?

 

San Francisco, despite last night against the best D, has an above average offense to help their defense. That's what makes them dangerous...they're above average in both aspects.

 

I think the game is certainly winnable unlike, say, a Seahawks/Broncos matchup. That being said, this one is going to be a tall order.

[BlueShoe]

I'm not 100% sold on Miami being a top 5 defense let alone better than San Fran. (Even a banged up San Fran.) I do think they're easily a top 10 defense, however. 

Even so, Miami doesn't have much of an offense to go with it. (Mediocre at best, led by a below average QB.) 

 

San Francisco, despite last night against the best D, has an above average offense to help their defense.

 

That is where we disagree then, because I believe that Tannehill is an excellent QB., and soon it will be the Luck and Tannehill rivalry owning the AFC. 

[Iancolts]

14-15 sacks is about right or to counter theat Pep is gonna run the ball and we should net about 40 yards total

[Gavin]

How am I going to be disappointed? Andrew is going to get his in this game. This game is on our defense to stop the read option and we have plenty of tape to watch from the Seattle game to get the blueprint. 

coaches dont play the games, and unless Luck has a light bulb go on in regards to him holding onto the ball to long then its very likely he is going to be a human pin cushion in the game, We can still have a chance to win if that happens but our defense is going to match the intensity of the 49ers and make plays and someones gonna have to lock Manusky in a closet so Pagano can call defensive plays

[GoDeep]

Then you understand my point, and it is clear now that experience against each style of defense for a young quarterback is very important. I think we would both agree that Alex Smith can handle his own well against a cover 2 defense now, right?

Luck is not new to the 49ers defense and that makes it an advantage for the Colts.

I'm concerned with our porous oline vs the SF pass rush and our pedestrian run game. Not with the SF secondary scheme.

[BlueShoe]

coaches dont play the games, and unless Luck has a light bulb go on in regards to him holding onto the ball to long then its very likely he is going a human pin cushion in the game, We can still have a chance to win if that happens but our defense is going to match the intensity of the 49ers and make plays and someones gonna have to lock Manusky in a closet so Pagano can call defensive plays

 

I will bite and give you the floor. Tell me exactly why we should be concerned about the 49ers secondary. I don't see any player in the secondary that is going to stop Luck and our receivers form having our way with them. On top of that, I am not sold that San Fran can stop us from running the ball effectively enough to keep the game in balance. I am going to let you explain why you think I am wrong about this. 

[BlueShoe]

I'm concerned with our porous oline vs the SF pass rush and our pedestrian run game. Not with the SF secondary scheme.

 

Our offensive line played well against Miami, who has one of the better front sevens in the NFL. We did this while losing one of our better OL for the season early in the game, and having to bring a rookie in to replace him. 

 

Our OL is improving. We took a step back when we lost Donald, but we have a big time player in Thornton. 

[Iancolts]

The niners D ranked in top 5 last year granted they lost some key pieces to free agency but they are still a top 10 Defense. Miami is no near what the niners have and we lost to them at home. We go on the road and Luck doesn't do well on the road especially against a team like the niners

[BlueShoe]

The niners D ranked in top 5 last year granted they lost some key pieces to free agency but they are still a top 10 Defense. Miami is no near what the niners have and we lost to them at home. We go on the road and Luck doesn't do well on the road especially against a team like the niners

 

The 49ers have not impressed me this season. Miami has impressed me this season. 

 

In my mind, Miami has just as good of a defense if not better than San Fran's. 

[Tyler Shaw]

49er are also missing there NT. So why wouldn't we be able to run ?

[colts_mp]

Let me get this straight. You agree with me that the 49ers defense has a suspect secondary. That we agree on.

 

I am sure we both agree that Luck is an elite QB, correct?

 

So we agree that we have an elite QB and the San Fran secondary has holes that can be exploited.

 

This is a recipe for Luck ripping the 49ers defense apart. I am not sure why you are not following the same logical conclusion as I am, especially  since we have the same arguments for support.

Where is Luck going to get the time to throw?  Our O-line will not be able to protect against their pass rush..and we really have to hope they don't blitz because in our 2 games we've done nothing to show we can block it.

[BlueShoe]

49er are also missing there NT. So why wouldn't we be able to run ?

 

Exactly. I think many on here are media struck by the 49ers. We have the best young QB in the game today, and we have solid cast around him. The 49ers have not impressed me at all this season. 

[BlueShoe]

Where is Luck going to get the time to throw?  Our O-line will not be able to protect against their pass rush..and we really have to hope they don't blitz because in our 2 games we've done nothing to show we can block it.

 

What pass rush are you worried about? 

 

The 49ers defense has recorded 6 sacks this year; same as us. 

 

Our OL has given up 7 sacks and the 49ers have given up 5 sacks. 

 

Add the fact that we have played against teams that are capable of recording coverage sacks. San Fran has not shown this season that they have the secondary to do so.

[Gavin]

I will bite and give you the floor. Tell me exactly why we should be concerned about the 49ers secondary. I don't see any player in the secondary that is going to stop Luck and our receivers form having our way with them. On top of that, I am not sold that San Fran can stop us from running the ball effectively enough to keep the game in balance. I am going to let you explain why you think I am wrong about this. 

Our wr's dont get separation well, Im expecting the 49ers to be physical with our wr's every chance they get. Running wise I think we will be fine but Luck will have to get rid of the ball quicker

[MAC]

To those who are media struck by the 49ers. They are not unbeatable, and in fact we have the right team to beat them. We can stop the run in between the tackles. It is not the Gores that will get us but rather the quick and fast Darren Sproles who can run around us. 

 

Our secondary has not played its best game yet and I believe San Fran has a problem passing the ball right now. We can stay with their receivers, and we can limit the run. They need to worry about stopping our offense. We are the third best in the league at converting third downs, and that was against 2 very good defenses. We have converted at 52%.

 

Stop listening to all of the talking heads on TV. 

 

If (when) Miami beats Atlanta next week and we beat the 49ers, it will change the landscape dramatically and make a lot more sense. 

Nobody is unbeatable, but the 49ers aren't a media fabrication, they're the defending NFC champions - playing at home. Do you suppose that the oddsmakers are influenced by the media? Any reason for optimism comes from the 49ers injuries (and the fact that with Luck the Colts always have a chance against anyone), not Luck's "special" knowledge.

 

Regarding stats - I only mention them because you are so impressed with the rankings of the Raiders and Dolphins defenses. Consider the fact that said ranking are a result of games against the Browns, the Jaguars, and the COLTS. What if that says more about the Colts than about their defenses? WAY too early to know.

 

I mention Pryor because he doesn't appear to be an actual QB (and the Raiders are a 4-12 team with the lowest payroll in football who by all accounts took a step back in the off-season) yet he still managed to run successfully against the Colts. It won't be easy getting Kaepernick off the field on third down. I'm no-where near as impressed with the guy as many seem to be, but he can sure as heck run the ball. 

[colts_mp]

What pass rush are you worried about? 

 

The 49ers defense has recorded 6 sacks this year; same as us. 

 

Our OL has given up 7 sacks and the 49ers have given up 5 sacks. 

 

Add the fact that we have played against teams that are capable of recording coverage sacks. San Fran has not shown this season that they have the secondary to do so.

• It is obvious you  do not understand the difference in caliber of play between GB&Seattle vs Oak & Miami.  Those stats are near meaningless.  But think of it this way, SF has only given up 5 sacks having faced the #1 defense on the road.  We've played both games at home against far inferior teams.  SF has done a pretty good job there.

[BlueShoe]

 

• It is obvious you  do not understand the difference in caliber of play between GB&Seattle vs Oak & Miami.  Those stats are near meaningless.  But think of it this way, SF has only given up 5 sacks having faced the #1 defense on the road.  We've played both games at home against far inferior teams.  SF has done a pretty good job there.

 

 

Obviously you are undervaluing Oakland and Miami. If Miami beats Atlanta and Oakland holds Denver under 20 points this week, then would it change your preseason preconceived notions?

[The Fish]

Let me get this straight. You agree with me that the 49ers defense has a suspect secondary. That we agree on.

 

I am sure we both agree that Luck is an elite QB, correct?

 

So we agree that we have an elite QB and the San Fran secondary has holes that can be exploited.

 

This is a recipe for Luck ripping the 49ers defense apart. I am not sure why you are not following the same logical conclusion as I am, especially  since we have the same arguments for support.

 

Firstly (a side note), I'm bored to tears trying to determine who is an elite QB and who isn't. The NFL is full of guys who can chuck the ball around pretty well right now. 

As for my take? It's rooted in 3 phases of the game, not one area where we hope the team can execute. Luck being under pressure is going to force him into mistakes, the common ones we've seen so far, Int's, fumbles in the pocket ect.

 

Honestly the real match up problem is the 9ers O. I think Haragubabuauhgh knows a think or two about Erik Walden's capacity to set the edge, contain and pursue. Look for Kapernerneeickek to do plenty of damage on 3rd downs with his legs. 

Vernon Davis is banged up, and I like the Colts secondary, but I just don't see a W here, I hope your right and I'm wrong.

[colts_mp]

Obviously you are undervaluing Oakland and Miami. If Miami beats Atlanta and Oakland holds Denver under 20 points this week, then would it change your preseason preconceived notions?

I'm not undervaluing.  Miami is good and does have a decent chance at home vs Atlanta (maybe Atlanta is overrated?).  But that has no relevance to Seattle and GB being much better than the opponents we faced.  Also, Oakland has about 5% chance to hold the Broncos (at home) to under 20 points with Manning under center.

[Bluefire4]

Why can't people be more positive. 

 

Mcglynn>>>>>Aldon Smith and Patrick WIllis.

[Indy005]

I think we all hope we can pull a win out, and if the game was in Indy the chances would definitely be there.

 

However, the game is NOT being played in Indianapolis, its being played in San Francisco. The Niners just got their a$$ handed to them by the Seahawks and Im sure they cant wait to get their hands on the Colts.

 

Everything that happened in Week 1 and 2 goes out the window, two hungry teams coming off emotional losses meet. We have been Lucky, pun intended, many times last year. In this game, the Colts will need more than luck, no pun intended.

 

We are nowhere nearly as talented as the Niners are, and Pagano is nowhere close to Harbaugh, yet.

 

This game has all the making of the Patriots and Colts game last year. We hang around for a quarter or so, and then Niners start rolling.

 

If only it was in Indianapolis! One thing I am glad for is that the Seahawks game isnt in Seattle, phew.

[GoDeep]

Doesn't cover two just mean the safeties play two deep zones?

This is what we are to hang our hats on? And that SF is not as good as we think?

I hope I am wrong but I fully expect to have our butts handed to us.

[MAC]

Obviously you are undervaluing Oakland and Miami. If Miami beats Atlanta and Oakland holds Denver under 20 points this week, then would it change your preseason preconceived notions?

I wouldn't lump them together. Oakland had an average D last year and it got worse in the offseason. One reason is that Phillip Wheeler went to Miami - and ironically he's a guy that the Colts thew away in the first place. The Dolphins are delighted to have him, and the Raiders miss him, but I don't think that too many people mention him in the same breath with the 49ers crew - which should put some perspective on the differences between the four clubs.

 

The only team that's held the Broncos with Peyton under 20 were KC in KC last year. Oakland in Denver? I think it more likely that they score 20+ in a quarter than that they get held under 20 for the game.

 

Elite QBs? A seriously overused term - lets just say that I don't consider Luck to be one of the handful of QBs in the league yet. He's a kid - have a little patience - with him and with the team. The Colts don't need to beat the defending NFC champs on the road in order for them to meet my expectations - they just need to keep making progress.

[In Luck We Trust]

What's Harbaugh going to tell his team? That Luck is a good player? Sure they will know some of our offense, but the advantage is still goes to Luck, because he isn't facing anything new.

okay so luck faced a defense in PRACTICE and at the COLLEGE level. this is the NFL..... but , the niners DC and HC know luck very well also and know his weaknesses. so in actuality,it could favor the niners also. it works both ways.