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Analytics for Dummies!


CoachLite

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I've watched broadcasters, coaches, and even team analytics personnel describe the use of analytics in football. What I've heard wasn't analytics and it wasn't applied analytically. What it looked like the Cliff Notes version of Analytics for Dummies. Remember, 83% of all statistics are made up.

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11 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

I don’t understand what the point is for the OP. Is there a point or a question? Data Analytics is huge in all sports now. 

 

I think the OP does not see the value of analytics. You're right; it is used a lot in sports. Teams are spending a lot on analytics. It must have some value. 

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3 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

I think the OP does not see the value of analytics. You're right; it is used a lot in sports. Teams are spending a lot on analytics. It must have some value. 

Absolutely there is value. Clearly seen in baseball but Ballard himself is huge on analytics. Whether a fan likes it or not they will continue to be used. Not just game play with coaches but especially in the draft process. It’s everywhere. 

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19 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Absolutely there is value. Clearly seen in baseball but Ballard himself is huge on analytics. Whether a fan likes it or not they will continue to be used. Not just game play with coaches but especially in the draft process. It’s everywhere. 

 

Yep, I was going to write that the Houston Astros have used it for years to build their teams. I believe they were the first ones. Their teams are loaded and they attribute that to the use of analytics. Every year, they are in the playoffs (cheating scandal, notwithstanding). The point is that they used analytics and it has worked for them. 

 

Anyway, I too am not clear why this was posted in the Colts section. Was there a report that Colts were going to use analytics more?

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26 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

Yep, I was going to write that the Houston Astros have used it for years to build their teams. I believe they were the first ones. Their teams are loaded and they attribute that to the use of analytics. Every year, they are in the playoffs (cheating scandal, notwithstanding). The point is that they used analytics and it has worked for them. 

 

Anyway, I too am not clear why this was posted in the Colts section. Was there a report that Colts were going to use analytics more?

I have not seen any reports about this so I am dumbfounded like you of why it’s posted here. 

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54 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Absolutely there is value. Clearly seen in baseball but Ballard himself is huge on analytics. Whether a fan likes it or not they will continue to be used. Not just game play with coaches but especially in the draft process. It’s everywhere. 

To me it's so weird that Ballard uses analytics so well in certain areas and completely disregards them in other. I wish he saw the value of analytics when it comes to positional value and by extension - the value analytics might bring when determining the overall roster building philosophy. The road nowadays is so obviously building from the outside in, rather than what Ballard keeps professing - building from the inside out. In this era's football, positions that involve passing the ball and defending the pass are the most important ones by a huge margin - QB, WR,CB... then OT, TE and DE and S... then everything else. Unfortunately, this Colts team has its best players at "everything else" and the biggest holes at those most important positions. 

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

To me it's so weird that Ballard uses analytics so well in certain areas and completely disregards them in other. I wish he saw the value of analytics when it comes to positional value and by extension - the value analytics might bring when determining the overall roster building philosophy. The road nowadays is so obviously building from the outside in, rather than what Ballard keeps professing - building from the inside out. In this era's football, positions that involve passing the ball and defending the pass are the most important ones by a huge margin - QB, WR,CB... then OT, TE and DE and S... then everything else. Unfortunately, this Colts team has it's best players at "everything else" and the biggest holes at those most important positions. 

I agree with not using the full spectrum of analytics as he should. The position value that you have I do not agree with completely though. Yes QB is amongst the most important but I would say LT is immediate 2nd and then WR. Building your trenches is a sound tactic but as you said using the data as he did not would have shown him let someone else sign Nelson for that large amount. He also values the Tampa 2/Legion of Boom zone still defenses and he keeps trying to force that issue. Analytics shows that this defense is a dying scheme that we need to move on from. 

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1 minute ago, DaColts85 said:

I agree with not using the full spectrum of analytics as he should. The position value that you have I do not agree with completely though. Yes QB is amongst the most important but I would say LT is immediate 2nd and then WR. Building your trenches is a sound tactic but as you said using the data as he did not would have shown him let someone else sign Nelson for that large amount. He also values the Tampa 2/Legion of Boom zone still defenses and he keeps trying to force that issue. Analytics shows that this defense is a dying scheme that we need to move on from. 

OT is still really important, IMO LT specifically(for right handed QB) is the most important building block of an OLine by a huge margin. I'd still rather us have beast of a receiver over LT. But again ... don't take this as me discounting LT. 

 

On Nelson... IMO it depends on what type of play we can expect from him. For the first 3 years of his career Nelson was a complete outlier when it comes to his performance and impact. If he's able to provide that level of play throughout his new contract, I'd have no problem with that contract and by some advanced analytics models Nelson was actually the most valuable OL player for those 3 years in the league(this includes OTs). Unfortunately... he's starting getting injured and it seems like it's impacting his play. If his level of play is that of the last 2 years, then yeah... I don't think this contract will bring us the returns we are hoping for. 

 

About the zone defense... this is actually something interesting that is happening in the last year or so in the league - more and more teams are actually turning to zone defense as their base and sprinkling in some varied coverages and press-man in certain situations. It seems that there is analytical element to this... they rely on stopping chunk plays and zone and especially the tampa 2 type zone when you only rush the front 4 severely limit the opportunities for big plays downfield. I'm not 100% certain how defenses will evolve in the league over the next few years, but I'm not sure the zone, even in Tampa 2 form, is as dead as a lot of people(this includes me until recently) thought. Maybe teams just need to diversify and switch the looks they give to offenses, even if it means starting with some zone and then going into more advanced or aggressive coverages. 

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Analytics is just a reason to hire an entire department of people to run and review reports.  Complete waste of time and money.  But I guess it gives people jobs they may not otherwise have.  It's kind of a joke and it's making lots of sports unwatchable and unenjoyable.  Look at what happened in basketball.  Bombs away!  In baseball everything is now all or nothing.  I used to work in the financial field.  We used to review financial reports and analyze them.  We reviewed trends and statistics and made projections.    Report analysis.  All of a sudden they started calling the reports analytics.  Same thing, different terminology.  I think in sports the coaches and managers just need to use common sense and gut feel.  I know statistics and trends are important, but talking about analytics is just a bunch of nonsense.  My opinion.  That's all.  

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3 hours ago, stitches said:

OT is still really important, IMO LT specifically(for right handed QB) is the most important building block of an OLine by a huge margin. I'd still rather us have beast of a receiver over LT. But again ... don't take this as me discounting LT. 

 

On Nelson... IMO it depends on what type of play we can expect from him. For the first 3 years of his career Nelson was a complete outlier when it comes to his performance and impact. If he's able to provide that level of play throughout his new contract, I'd have no problem with that contract and by some advanced analytics models Nelson was actually the most valuable OL player for those 3 years in the league(this includes OTs). Unfortunately... he's starting getting injured and it seems like it's impacting his play. If his level of play is that of the last 2 years, then yeah... I don't think this contract will bring us the returns we are hoping for. 

 

About the zone defense... this is actually something interesting that is happening in the last year or so in the league - more and more teams are actually turning to zone defense as their base and sprinkling in some varied coverages and press-man in certain situations. It seems that there is analytical element to this... they rely on stopping chunk plays and zone and especially the tampa 2 type zone when you only rush the front 4 severely limit the opportunities for big plays downfield. I'm not 100% certain how defenses will evolve in the league over the next few years, but I'm not sure the zone, even in Tampa 2 form, is as dead as a lot of people(this includes me until recently) thought. Maybe teams just need to diversify and switch the looks they give to offenses, even if it means starting with some zone and then going into more advanced or aggressive coverages. 

With the LT spot I am still looking for that to be solidified before worrying about a top flight WR. In saying that I am fine with rolling Rainmann and hoping his growth continues. 
 

I will start by saying I am not a Nelson hater. I like having a solid LG but I personally would not have put that much money on that spot. The salary cap increasing allows for that number to shrink  so it becomes a non factor but his play is becoming more of the factor. I do see him improving and just hope it happens. 
 

You are right with the zone defense thought. I don’t think Tampa 2 itself is used that much but yes a type of zone will always be used I agree with that. Nickle and dine zones have always been common. I guess what I was trying to say is I just want a DC that can mix stuff up by game and allow for us to not be so mundane and bend and not break. Get more aggressive. 

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On 1/29/2023 at 8:49 AM, NFLfan said:

 

I think the OP does not see the value of analytics. You're right; it is used a lot in sports. Teams are spending a lot on analytics. It must have some value. 

The OP has had a long career in analytics, computer modeling, simulation and visualization in an AI framework.

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On 1/28/2023 at 7:50 PM, CoachLite said:

I've watched broadcasters, coaches, and even team analytics personnel describe the use of analytics in football. What I've heard wasn't analytics and it wasn't applied analytically. What it looked like the Cliff Notes version of Analytics for Dummies. Remember, 83% of all statistics are made up.

 

So, serious question. Is there a point here?

 

What definition of "analytics" are you working from, as it relates to football?

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On 1/29/2023 at 10:35 AM, DaColts85 said:

I don’t understand what the point is for the OP. Is there a point or a question? Data Analytics is huge in all sports now. 

I thought the point was the reliance on it has become excessive, that teams are short-sighted in relying on them too much, and such a reliance is shall we say not terribly bright. But I could be wrong.

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On 1/28/2023 at 10:50 PM, CoachLite said:

I've watched broadcasters, coaches, and even team analytics personnel describe the use of analytics in football. What I've heard wasn't analytics and it wasn't applied analytically. What it looked like the Cliff Notes version of Analytics for Dummies. Remember, 83% of all statistics are made up.

I 100% disagree and agree. 

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