Scouting report #1 WR D.K Metcalf Ole Miss

[twfish]

 

D.K Metcalf listed at 6'4 230 projected 40 time from Walter football 4.58. 4 star recruit coming out of high school.

Games watched:

Kentucky 2017, 5 rec 83 yards 2 TD.

Texas Tech 2018, 4 rec 81 yards 1 TD.

LSU 2018, 3 rec 37 yards 0 TD.

Alabama 2018, 2 rec 92 yards 1 TD.

Arkansas 2017, 4 rec 107 yards 0 TD.

 

 

Strengths:

Has a very large frame and not afraid too use against opposing CB to win a contested catch. He has elite foot quickness for his size and that is how he creates the majority of his separation in man coverage. He has the feet of a small shifty wide out and they are so quick that the one person who comes to mind is Marvin Harrison. Hes incredibly shifty for his size in the open field.  He is an excellent route runner and I believe he is capable of being able to run a much deeper route tree in the NFL. He appears to have a good understanding of zone coverages and can find the soft spot in them. He explodes out of his breaks and has a very good release off the line of scrimmage. Has a very large catch radius and a good wingspan. Has very good explosion for someone listed to run nearly a 4.6 (which I don't think is wrong but will elaborate later on) and its how he will win the majority of his battles. Has good upper body strength and is a very willing run blocker. It is unlikely a jam will work on him with his combination of size, upper body strength and foot quickness. If a corner back chooses to do so they will pay the price. He appears to have a non-stop motor and fights to get open long after the pocket has collapsed.

 

Weakness:

He is far from having game breaking speed. The reason I do believe he will run a slower 40 is because corner backs typically run stride for stride with him if they don't bite on his moves. Especially lined up against Henre Toliver, a current UDFA CB on our roster, was stride for stride with him after he posted a 4.63 40 yard dash. This is one giant concern in my opinion and is cause for alarm for someone draft analysis are calling a first round wide receiver. He tends to have his share of concentration drops and does not always judge the right time too high point a catch for the ball. Two attributes that can kill a red zone wide receiver. Injuries are a big concern since he ended his season with a neck injury but he should test high at the combine due to having more time to train for it. A huge concern for me is that he only has 4 games out of 21 where he has gone over 100 yards and 9 of the 21 games he failed to score. If i am going to draft a WR with one of my top pics I want more production from him. He also was not the best WR on his team, that title easily goes to A.J brown. I will give him some cushion however to a sub par QB who failed to go past his first read on several plays and either throw it into coverage or ran it. 

 

Overall:

I do think he will have success in the NFL. If he had better speed and slightly better hands this guy would be serious force and would easily be one of the top picks. For now I see him as a 800 yard #2 wide out with a larger sum of TD's. I am not very good at comparisons and don't like to do them because each player is different, but right now gun too my head I could see his absolute ceiling being similar to Jordy Nelson but less athletic. If he goes to the right team where he isn't pressured to step in and immediately be the #1 I can see him having a lot of success in the league, however too bring him in the expectations of being a number one you're setting him up too be a bust. He is a very hyped WR and before diving into his film I was on the hype train watching the highlights and listening to the so called "experts", but this is why I wanted to do some breakdowns to get a better understanding and too put my eyes on the tape. I no doubt would be okay with him being taken with our 2nd 2nd round pick but there are a lot of very talented WR i would put ahead of him in this class.

 

NFL Projection:

Several sites have him going late first too early second. I wouldn't take him until the late second.

[stitches]

Don't trust that number for his speed. He's not going to run 4.6. IMO he's closer to 4.4 than 4.6... To me he looks extremely fast and explosive for his size. His physical profile and athleticism, along with his ability to beat press-man and the rudiments and teasers of great and sharp breaks out of routes that makes me love him as a prospect and that make me think that I would be OK with spending a pick on him even in the 1st round. 

 

To me he looks like a prototypical no. 1 receiver. He needs refinement and he needs expanding his route tree, because Ole Miss lined him up almost exclusively on the left side and let him try either go routes or quick out routes. But you can just see with the suddenness of his movement and the crispness of his breaks that he has all the ingredients of an exciting route runner if he puts his mind and work ethic into it. He has the athleticism and feel for it... he just needs to work on consistently executing and expanding his route tree. 

[twfish]

44 minutes ago, stitches said:

Don't trust that number for his speed. He's not going to run 4.6. IMO he's closer to 4.4 than 4.6... To me he looks extremely fast and explosive for his size. His physical profile and athleticism, along with his ability to beat press-man and the rudiments and teasers of great and sharp breaks out of routes that makes me love him as a prospect and that make me think that I would be OK with spending a pick on him even in the 1st round. 

 

To me he looks like a prototypical no. 1 receiver. He needs refinement and he needs expanding his route tree, because Ole Miss lined him up almost exclusively on the left side and let him try either go routes or quick out routes. But you can just see with the suddenness of his movement and the crispness of his breaks that he has all the ingredients of an exciting route runner if he puts his mind and work ethic into it. He has the athleticism and feel for it... he just needs to work on consistently executing and expanding his route tree. 

With speed training I could see him getting into low 4.5's but I dont see him getting much below that. I didnt base my opinion off the time that was projected but more so when hes getting in man and he rarely out runs the cb. 

 

I 100% agree with your second statement and believe he can develop into a solid number 1 in the right circumstance but I think it will take some time for him to get to that level. Thanks for you for critiquing me. I am sure with the more film I watch of other WR my opinion. Will change so I guess I should have put a right of revision clause in there

[hoosierhawk]

Neck injury would give me pause.

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, twfish said:

With speed training I could see him getting into low 4.5's but I dont see him getting much below that. I didnt base my opinion off the time that was projected but more so when hes getting in man and he rarely out runs the cb. 

 

I 100% agree with your second statement and believe he can develop into a solid number 1 in the right circumstance but I think it will take some time for him to get to that level. Thanks for you for critiquing me. I am sure with the more film I watch of other WR my opinion. Will change so I guess I should have put a right of revision clause in there 

I agree it might take some time and that's why IMO he might be available late first-early second. He doesn't have the high end production and he's not the finished product, which is why he's not going to go top 10, because IMO his upside is that of a top 10 pick. He is a blue chip talent(but not player right now). 

 

But yah, I always keep the right for revisions  If he runs 4.6, he will drop significantly in my eyes... I just don't think he will. He looks VERY fast to me on tape. This is big part of his appeal to me(athleticism+size+flashes of no.1 WR traits)

[bhougland]

1 hour ago, twfish said:

 

D.K Metcalf listed at 6'4 230 projected 40 time from Walter football 4.58. 4 star recruit coming out of high school.

Games watched:

Kentucky 2017, 5 rec 83 yards 2 TD.

Texas Tech 2018, 4 rec 81 yards 1 TD.

LSU 2018, 3 rec 37 yards 0 TD.

Alabama 2018, 2 rec 92 yards 1 TD.

Arkansas 2017, 4 rec 107 yards 0 TD.

 

 

Strengths:

Has a very large frame and not afraid too use against opposing CB to win a contested catch. He has elite foot quickness for his size and that is how he creates the majority of his separation in man coverage. He has the feet of a small shifty wide out and they are so quick that the one person who comes to mind is Marvin Harrison. Hes incredibly shifty for his size in the open field.  He is an excellent route runner and I believe he is capable of being able to run a much deeper route tree in the NFL. He appears to have a good understanding of zone coverages and can find the soft spot in them. He explodes out of his breaks and has a very good release off the line of scrimmage. Has a very large catch radius and a good wingspan. Has very good explosion for someone listed to run nearly a 4.6 (which I don't think is wrong but will elaborate later on) and its how he will win the majority of his battles. Has good upper body strength and is a very willing run blocker. It is unlikely a jam will work on him with his combination of size, upper body strength and foot quickness. If a corner back chooses to do so they will pay the price. He appears to have a non-stop motor and fights to get open long after the pocket has collapsed.

 

Weakness:

He is far from having game breaking speed. The reason I do believe he will run a slower 40 is because corner backs typically run stride for stride with him if they don't bite on his moves. Especially lined up against Henre Toliver, a current UDFA CB on our roster, was stride for stride with him after he posted a 4.63 40 yard dash. This is one giant concern in my opinion and is cause for alarm for someone draft analysis are calling a first round wide receiver. He tends to have his share of concentration drops and does not always judge the right time too high point a catch for the ball. Two attributes that can kill a red zone wide receiver. Injuries are a big concern since he ended his season with a neck injury but he should test high at the combine due to having more time to train for it. A huge concern for me is that he only has 4 games out of 21 where he has gone over 100 yards and 9 of the 21 games he failed to score. If i am going to draft a WR with one of my top pics I want more production from him. He also was not the best WR on his team, that title easily goes to A.J brown. I will give him some cushion however to a sub par QB who failed to go past his first read on several plays and either throw it into coverage or ran it. 

 

Overall:

I do think he will have success in the NFL. If he had better speed and slightly better hands this guy would be serious force and would easily be one of the top picks. For now I see him as a 800 yard #2 wide out with a larger sum of TD's. I am not very good at comparisons and don't like to do them because each player is different, but right now gun too my head I could see his absolute ceiling being similar to Jordy Nelson but less athletic. If he goes to the right team where he isn't pressured to step in and immediately be the #1 I can see him having a lot of success in the league, however too bring him in the expectations of being a number one you're setting him up too be a bust. He is a very hyped WR and before diving into his film I was on the hype train watching the highlights and listening to the so called "experts", but this is why I wanted to do some breakdowns to get a better understanding and too put my eyes on the tape. I no doubt would be okay with him being taken with our 2nd 2nd round pick but there are a lot of very talented WR i would put ahead of him in this class.

 

NFL Projection:

Several sites have him going late first too early second. I wouldn't take him until the late second.

Great write up.  I don't think he looks fast at all on film and think he will run in the high 4.5s.  Also, his production is not very good.  I would be stunned if he goes in the first round and would be disappointed if we choose him with our first second round pick.

[richard pallo]

Strikes me as a player similar to Donte Moncrief also of Ole Miss. 

[Boiler_Colt]

I just hope he's not Dorial Green-Beckham.

[Defjamz26]

Interesting that you say Brown is the better receiver. All the expert opinions I’ve heard on Brown were that he struggles against press/man coverage and was used almost exclusively in the slot at Ole Miss. I expect you’ll elaborate on that when you do a write up for Brown.

[twfish]

11 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Interesting that you say Brown is the better receiver. All the expert opinions I’ve heard on Brown were that he struggles against press/man coverage and was used almost exclusively in the slot at Ole Miss. I expect you’ll elaborate on that when you do a write up for Brown.

Are you sure you're thinking of A.J brown not marquise brown from OU? Almost every play I've watched yet of him hes been playing outside and is consistently beating his man

[twfish]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Strikes me as a player similar to Donte Moncrief also of Ole Miss. 

Moncrief had the tools including speed, he lacked attitude and discipline. I still think the previous regime hurt him by giving his early snap to dried up F/A

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, twfish said:

Are you sure you're thinking of A.J brown not marquise brown from OU? Almost every play I've watched yet of him hes been playing outside and is consistently beating his man

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/09/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-a-j-brown/

 

All 3 pretty much say the same thing. Worked almost exclusively from the slot in college and can’t beat press coverage. Ledyard goes so far as to say both Metcalf and Lodge are better.

[twfish]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/09/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-a-j-brown/

 

All 3 pretty much say the same thing. Worked almost exclusively from the slot in college and can’t beat press coverage. Ledyard goes so far as to say both Metcalf and Lodge are better.

That surprises me considering the kid has had one year and went for over 1300 yards. To be fair I havent watched but 2 games on brown and one was the LSU game that I watched of Metcalf so I cant say I have a large opinion of him but from the film of his so far I still like him more. He has atleast produced where you're draft Metcalf more so for his measurables. Time will tell however and hopefully I can get around to doing a write up on brown.

[Dark Superman]

DK is my dream WR.

[Dark Superman]

Prayin he falls to us in the first.