2017 NFL Combine Skills Day #1(3/3/17) (RB, OL, ST)

[WarGhost21]

Hoping to prepare the forum a bit before people begin to create their own topics on specific players. Everything going on at the NFL Combine today (Friday, March 3rd) should go in this thread!

[AZColt11]

Love the combine.  What I don't love is how some guys get elevated over others purely based on numbers.  I think what you do on the field, on tape, should be most important.  But if you have two guys rated evenly this can help break those "ties".

[Defjamz26]

9 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

Love the combine.  What I don't love is how some guys get elevated over others purely based on numbers.  I think what you do on the field, on tape, should be most important.  But if you have two guys rated evenly this can help break those "ties".

That's not really true. I've heard from GMs and analysts that their boards are pretty much set before the combine, and they don't really change much. I forgot who said it but it was a scout who said something like "When you hear that a guy has shot up draft boards, it's really just the media and casual fans catching up. Really the scouts and GMs are already high on those guys". It's always about the tape. But Grigson said that unless a guy runs a really bad 40, bombs interviews, or his medical check comes back negative that draft boards really don't change all that much.

[Freeupfreeney]

I dont believe that, but vuz I've seen some weird stuff in the past. 

 

Remember when the jaguars took that QB from Arkansas that ran a 4.37 somehow and took him in the first at WR. 

 

I mean hell, remember when we took green in the second last year Lol. 

 

That 40 time does something to GMs. I think every teams needs to have board discipline. 

 

Its kinda like how you plan to win a fight, but it goes out the window as soon as u get hit. 

 

I believe the same thing happens when your favorite player slides off the board. And everybody starts to panivk and calling people Lol. But Iono. 

 

I have seen some guys shoot straight from obscurity to the top half of the 1st. 

 

 

 

 

[BCoop]

4 minutes ago, Freeupfreeney said:

I dont believe that, but vuz I've seen some weird stuff in the past. 

 

Remember when the jaguars took that QB from Arkansas that ran a 4.37 somehow and took him in the first at WR. 

 

I mean hell, remember when we took green in the second last year Lol. 

 

That 40 time does something to GMs. I think every teams needs to have board discipline. 

 

Its kinda like how you plan to win a fight, but it goes out the window as soon as u get hit. 

 

I believe the same thing happens when your favorite player slides off the board. And everybody starts to panivk and calling people Lol. But Iono. 

 

I have seen some guys shoot straight from obscurity to the top half of the 1st. 

 

 

 

 

 

As @Defjamz26 pointed out above:  "When you hear that a guy has shot up draft boards, it's really just the media and casual fans catching up. Really the scouts and GMs are already high on those guys". 

 

To your last point, let's hear some of those examples.

[Freeupfreeney]

Everybody all Davis ever drafted. Now there. 

 

U telling me nobody has ever shot to the first based on combine help.

 

Dontarie Pie was one. I don't think he was considered a first till after the combine. Then people took a look at his tape and said OHHHH.

 

You gotta remember. Each team has like 20 dudes looking at HUNDREDS of players. 

 

Certain things are going to be glossed over. 

[BCoop]

18 minutes ago, Freeupfreeney said:

Everybody all Davis ever drafted. Now there. 

 

U telling me nobody has ever shot to the first based on combine help.

 

Dontarie Pie was one. I don't think he was considered a first till after the combine. Then people took a look at his tape and said OHHHH.

 

You gotta remember. Each team has like 20 dudes looking at HUNDREDS of players. 

 

Certain things are going to be glossed over. 

 

Plenty of players have been pushed up into the first after a combine that may have started with 2nd-3rd round grades. You said you have seen guys "shoot straight from obscurity into the first." I think that is embellishing at best.

 

I'm not digging through Al Davis picks but I seriously doubt every single person he ever drafted in the first was not on a board to start the combine.

 

Wrong on Dontari Poe. It's not even hard to disprove. Athlon Sports, USA Today, SB Nation all had him #24-26 in their pre-combine mocks.

 

26th here.

24th here

24th here

24th here...again

 

He moved up to 11th by draft time. Late first to mid-first isn't coming from obscurity.

 

Your last two points are just wrong. You keep making stuff up like it's fact and it's not close. Those 20 "dudes" do this full-time. There are always misses, but players don't come out of nowhere at this point in the game and go in the first.

 

[stitches]

 

[stitches]

Bolles just ran 1.71 10 yard split and 4.96 40 yard dash.

[WarGhost21]

Just now, stitches said:

Bolles just ran 1.71 10 yard split and 4.96 40 yard dash.

Watching it too. Pretty quick

[Yoshinator]

Just now, stitches said:

Bolles just ran 1.71 10 yard split and 4.96 40 yard dash.

That seems like a fast 40 for a O-Lineman, actually have no idea if the 10 yd split is good or not though.

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

That seems like a fast 40 for a O-Lineman, actually have no idea if the 10 yd split is good or not though.

It's the second best so far. The first one is a guy from TCU I haven't heard.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, stitches said:

It's the second best so far.

Oh sweet! I actually want him to do really well for selfish reasons. So he possibly goes before us in the draft and another defensive player can fall to us lol. 

[Freeupfreeney]

13 minutes ago, BCoop said:

 

Plenty of players have been pushed up into the first after a combine that may have started with 2nd-3rd round grades. You said you have seen guys "shoot straight from obscurity into the first." I think that is embellishing at best.

 

I'm not digging through Al Davis picks but I seriously doubt every single person he ever drafted in the first was not on a board to start the combine.

 

Wrong on Dontari Poe. It's not even hard to disprove. Athlon Sports, USA Today, SB Nation all had him #24-26 in their pre-combine mocks.

 

26th here.

24th here

24th here

24th here...again

 

He moved up to 11th by draft time. Late first to mid-first isn't coming from obscurity.

 

Your last two points are just wrong. You keep making stuff up like it's fact and it's not close. Those 20 "dudes" do this full-time. There are always misses, but players don't come out of nowhere at this point in the game and go in the first.

 

That's was probably after mayok kept talking bout him. 

 

Sometimes people listeb to mayok, sometines mayoknis getting the inside information. I remember poe was considered a third rounder in some early mock draft, and his combine solidified him, which is why he went all the way to 11. 

 

There are some guys, like that qb from Arkansas I already named that came out of nowhere. 

 

I'm speaking loosely and I say obscurity...what round is obscurity.

 

If you gonna be using semantics to try to make me seem like I'm pulling the statement....

 

"Some players shoot way up the draft based on combines numbers" 

 

...Out my butt, your the one on the loosing side of the argument, because everyone has seen it. It not even worth researching. 

 

Almost ever year there a guy who benches 34 or runs a 4.3 who went 1st or 2nd who otherwise may have been 5th or 6 rounders. 

 

Some teams (And there are 32 of them) take risk on those merits. 

 

Its a know fact, do you want to research every draft. Every mocjndraft, every premock draft and every teams secret boards. 

 

Some players move up two and there rounds with every passing week. 

 

Some players jump up entire rounds based on their pro days and also drop entire rounds. 

 

Some players are drafts in the 6th and are hall of famers. 

 

Fact is, combine numbers DO have a impact on Some teams analysis, and the impact is Significant. You want to say I'm wrong on that. Go ahead. Do the reasearch. 

[stitches]

Pat Elflein (one of the best interior O-linemen in this class) ran 1.88/5.35 not spectacular.

 

Dan Feeney - 1.82/5.28

 

Antonio Garcia is the other tackle that's supposed to be really smooth and quick athlete. He's about to run soon ...

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Oh sweet! I actually want him to do really well for selfish reasons. So he possibly goes before us in the draft and another defensive player can fall to us lol. 

That wouldn't be the worst thing to happen, lol. Although... if we draft an o-lineman in the first I'd rather it be Bolles.

[Smonroe]

42 minutes ago, Freeupfreeney said:

Everybody all Davis ever drafted. Now there. 

 

U telling me nobody has ever shot to the first based on combine help.

 

Dontarie Pie was one. I don't think he was considered a first till after the combine. Then people took a look at his tape and said OHHHH.

 

You gotta remember. Each team has like 20 dudes looking at HUNDREDS of players. 

 

Certain things are going to be glossed over. 

 

I think you hit the nail with what you said about Poe.  If a guy unexpectedly excels at the combine the smart GMs will look at his tape to see if he's a football player or an underwear Olympian.  

 

But no smart GM should rely on combine numbers alone.  

[BCoop]

Defensive measurements trickling in on Twitter.

 

Derek Barnett - 6'3" 259lbs

Taco Charlton - 6'5 5/8" 277 lbs

[stitches]

1 minute ago, BCoop said:

Defensive measurements trickling in on Twitter.

 

Derek Barnett - 6'3" 259lbs

Taco Charlton - 6'5 5/8" 277 lbs

Taco seems like he needs to be a DE in our scheme. I can't see him as a OLB. Or am I wrong here?

[Freeupfreeney]

4 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

I think you hit the nail with what you said about Poe.  If a guy unexpectedly excels at the combine the smart GMs will look at his tape to see if he's a football player or an underwear Olympian.  

 

But no smart GM should rely on combine numbers alone.  

That k u. The dude arguing with me (I'm done arguing BTW) unwittingly loved my point showing a guy growing from 26th and I'm sure some had him lower to 11 after the combine. There have been bigger jumps than that. There is no standard starting point. There are only general consensus. And obviously, sometimes every bodies general consensus, expert as they are, are completely wrong, I.e. bust. And they wrong more than half the time. So keep on using the term EXPERTS for people who are wrong about how good a player will be more than half the time. 

[Freeupfreeney]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

Taco seems like he needs to be a DE in our scheme. I can't see him as a OLB. Or am I wrong here?

If we got him, I don't want him. He be a better Dr than olb. He be a disaster I think at olb in the run game. But he my get some pressures and a few sacks at de, if he plays hard. And OMG 277 LBS. THATS BIG DUDE.

[loudnproudcolt]

I think when someone says shooting up the board, it is more of in the public eye. I doubt few had ever heard Dontari Poe's name before the draft. Byron Jones was the same from UConn a couple years ago. Scouts knew these guys and were on boards, but the public did not, thus shooting up the boards. It is more about the public awareness. Look at what has happened with Temple's Hassan Reddick after the Senior Bowl, and how his stock has seemed to rise.

He was at the Senior Bowl for a reason. Scouts and teams knew him and had him on their boards. It was the public who did not really know about a guy from Temple. The names that fly up the boards are generally the ones who are not household names, but still are very highly ranked. The combine matters, but tape does not lie! JMHO!

[BCoop]

14 minutes ago, Freeupfreeney said:

Do the reasearch. 

 

I'm not addressing every point in that watered down rambling. You're free to move the field goal posts all you want. You claimed players every year come from obscurity and go in the first after the combine and ended up supporting that claim by spouting a bunch of nonsense about Mike Mayock, some unnamed Arkansas QB, Dontari Poe, and that there are 6th rounders that are hall of famers (which may be true but is also completely irrelevant). 

 

The bottom line is, "obscure" prospects (ie guys that are unknown, off anyone's radar) NEVER just shoot up to the first after the combine. It doesn't happen.

 

I'm not claiming that the combine does not influence draft position. Guys jump or drop 1-2 rounds all the time. Guys don't jump/drop 5-6 rounds at this stage in the process unless something huge happens like injuries/crime. That was my only point. All this other crap that got pulled into the conversation is just noise.

[BCoop]

Solomon Thomas - 6'2 5/8" 273 lbs

Takk McKinley - 6'2" 250 lbs

Haason Reddick 6'1 1/2" 237 lbs

 

Fun stat of the day - Jarron Jones with a 7'1 5/8" wing span 

[stitches]

Seems like the official time for Bolles has been updated to 4.91 on the NFL site (are those times on TV unofficial?)

[BCoop]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Seems like the official time for Bolles has been updated to 4.91 on the NFL site (are those times on TV unofficial?)

 

I do believe the TV times are unofficial. I recall them saying that last year but don't recall the reasoning behind it.

[WarGhost21]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Seems like the official time for Bolles has been updated to 4.91 on the NFL site (are those times on TV unofficial?)

Currently both times are shown as unofficial, but we should see official times soon!

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, BCoop said:

 

I do believe the TV times are unofficial. I recall them saying that last year but don't recall the reasoning behind it.

Thanks. Seems like 4.91 for O-lineman is in the top 10 of O-linemen in the last 10 years. His 10 yard split was pretty damn impressive too.

 

Edit: new update - official time is finally 4.95. Lol

[stitches]

6'4 1/2", 272 pounds for Myles Garrett.

[Shive]

1 hour ago, Freeupfreeney said:

Remember when the jaguars took that QB from Arkansas that ran a 4.37 somehow and took him in the first at WR.

Wow, going back to 05 with Matt Jones. The difference I see with him is that everyone knew he was a big, fast, athletic beast from watching him run as a QB. The combine just put his athleticism on display.

 

The pick was WIDELY criticized, because the Jags took a project player in the 1st round. In any situation, there are outliers. This is one of those outliers, as this was a huge reach by a TERRIBLE Jags team that stayed terrible for years, because of bad drafting. You're making a wide-sweeping general statement, but supporting it with isolated incidents that's aren't the norm..

 

What I think most of the folks that have replied to you are trying to say that while the media and us fans don't have some players on their boards until the combine, most teams already do. We're not privy to their boards, so the perception is that players came out of nowhere. There are some that wow at the combine that go higher than they should, but most teams use the combine to either confirm what they're seeing on tape or something they aren't seeing on tape (ie: this WR runs good routes and has good hands, but is he fast enough to create separation? He ran a solid 40, so he does).

[BCoop]

Reuben Foster measures out at 6'0" 229lbs.

 

I'm probably more interested in his times than anyone in the combine. Really looking forward to see where he times out at that weight. 

[stitches]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WOW, McDowell has gained some weight!

 

 

 

T-Rex arms. Damn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Yoshinator]

19 minutes ago, stitches said:

6'4 1/2", 272 pounds for Myles Garrett.

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but the Browns are "strongly considering" Trubisky 1st overall.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2695828-browns-draft-rumors-cleveland-considering-mitch-trubisky-with-1st-overall-pick?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfl-draft

This would be a horrible mistake.

[BCoop]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but the Browns are "strongly considering" Trubisky 1st overall.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2695828-browns-draft-rumors-cleveland-considering-mitch-trubisky-with-1st-overall-pick?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfl-draft

This would be a horrible mistake.

 

Or in other words, just another day in Cleveland.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, BCoop said:

 

Or in other words, just another day in Cleveland.

Hahaha, basically. I don't see how they could do this. It is the Browns though.

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, Freeupfreeney said:

Everybody all Davis ever drafted. Now there. 

 

U telling me nobody has ever shot to the first based on combine help.

 

Dontarie Pie was one. I don't think he was considered a first till after the combine. Then people took a look at his tape and said OHHHH.

 

You gotta remember. Each team has like 20 dudes looking at HUNDREDS of players. 

 

Certain things are going to be glossed over. 

 

These aren't teams boards you refer to, they are media or fans boards.  You need to produce a teams big board showing they moved a (for example) round 3 player to the upper half of round one... and took him.

 

You may have had a team or two disregard their scouts (huge mistake!) and let the shorts and T-shirts games cloud their dradft thinking.  But that isn't the norm for scouting and drafting in the NFL.

 

Generally, teams just don't judge by combine, throw darts, or look at tape for the first time at the last minute.  There's a process.  Each team has area scouts.  These guys are assigned to attend games in their area all college football season.  They grade the senior players.  They also have a list of positional players and particular skill sets coaches are looking for in particular.  Somewhere in the September/October range, scouts get a feel for Juniors that will come out, or coaches will hint at those players, and collect scouting notes on them as well. Then, (typically) the Director of College Scouting will personally scout the top 100 prospects himself, as well, as a crosscheck (notes in future meetings).  Finally, a team will send out a third scout in late November to personally see all the players the team is really interested in.

 

Once all the raw data has been collected, then each scout is often given a position to evaluate.  The scouts go over all of the players during meetings.  Once the NFL season is done, all fall reports and college all-star games (Bowl games, East-West, Senior Bowl, etc..) reports are incorporated and discussed, and the scout that interviewed the player would be asked what was learned about the player from that interview.  all to find a landing spot for that player on the board.

 

Pre-combine, Many teams (including John Dorsey at the Chiefs, thus Chris Ballard) have the GM and all scouts watch up to 3 games of selected players to further define big board order.  The key is to allow scouts their opinion and avoid 'groupthink'.  definitely, the GM should not trash all of the hard work the scouts have performed all year becasue of flashy combine numbers.

 

I estimate more draft boards change during the combine due to medical information or interviews than measurables.  That, or social media gaffs (gas mask picture anyone?)

 

Teams have the resources and procedures to do this (proper year round scouting), most media outlets and nearly all fans do not.  But it is still as much art as a science (inexact).  Humans are involved and we are an unpredictable lot at times.  Teams scouting incorporates everything and is a long and arduous process.  They don't watch a couple youtube highlight videos, read the Walter Football site, tune in to Mike Mayock's latest, or check on Freeupfreeney's Draft Mock 4.12 and then set their draft board accordingly.  Also, any GM that trashes their Scouts Big Board recklessly in such a way with his own last minute changes will have an angry staff of scouts that won't work nearly so hard next year, or that will try to get on with a team that will utilize their efforts.

[stitches]

There is some buzz about Johnathan Allen's shoulders. He's had 2 surgeries while in school.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

These aren't teams boards you refer to, they are media or fans boards.  You need to produce a teams big board showing they moved a (for example) round 3 player to the upper half of round one... and took him.

 

You may have had a team or two disregard their scouts (huge mistake!) and let the shorts and T-shirts games cloud their dradft thinking.  But that isn't the norm for scouting and drafting in the NFL.

 

Generally, teams just don't judge by combine, throw darts, or look at tape for the first time at the last minute.  There's a process.  Each team has area scouts.  These guys are assigned to attend games in their are all college football season.  They grade the senior players.  They also have a list of positional players and particular skill sets coaches are looking for in particular.  Somewhere in the September/October range, scouts get a feel for Juniors that will come out, or coaches will hint at those players, and collect scouting notes on them as well. Then, (typically) the Director of College Scouting will personally scout the top 100 prospects himself, as well, as a crosscheck (notes in future meetings).  Finally, a team will send out a third scout in late November to personally see all the players the team is really interested in.

 

Once all the raw data has been collected, then each scout is often given a position to evaluate.  The scouts go over all of the players during meetings.  Once the NFL season is done, all fall reports and college all-star games (Bowl games, East-West, Senior Bowl, etc..) reports are incorporated and discussed, and the scout that interviewed the player would be asked what was learned about the player from that interview.  all to find a landing spot for that player on the board.

 

Pre-combine, Many teams (including John Dorsey at the Chiefs, thus Chris Ballard) have the GM and all scouts watch up to 3 games of selected players to further define big board order.  The key is to allow scouts their opinion and avoid 'groupthink'.  definitely, the GM should not trash all of the hard work the scouts have performed all year becasue of flashy combine numbers.

 

I estimate more draft boards change during the combine due to medical information or interviews than measurables.  That, or social media gaffs (gas mask picture anyone?)

 

Teams have the resources and procedures to do this (proper year round scouting), most media outlets and nearly all fans do not.  But it is still as much art as a science (inexact).  Humans are involved and we are an unpredictable lot at times.  Teams scouting incorporates everything and is a long and arduous process.  They don't watch a couple youtube highlight videos, read the Walter Football site, tune in to Mike Mayock's latest, or check on Freeupfreeney's Draft Mock 4.12 and then set their draft board accordingly.  Also, any GM that trashes their Scouts Big Board recklessly in such a way with his own last minute changes will have an angry staff of scouts that won't work nearly so hard next year, or that will try to get on with a team that will utilize their efforts.

Very informative! Thanks for the info!

[ColtsBlueFL]

4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Very informative! Thanks for the info!

 

Thanks.  For all, here are the people nvolved in Colts scouting-

 

Jimmy Raye III, Vice President of Football Operations (Especially UDFA)
T.J. McCreight, Director of College Scouting
Kevin Rogers, Director of Pro Personnel
Todd Vasvari, Senior Player Personnel Scout
Jon Shaw, Pro Scout/Special Projects
Brandon Brown, Advance Scout
Joey Elliott, Pro Scout
Matt Terpening, Assistant Director of College Scouting
Dave Razzano, Senior Scout
Chad Henry, East Regional Scout
Mike Derice, Area Scout
Byron Lusby, Area Scout
Jamie Moore, Area Scout
Ahmad Russell, Area Scout
Chris McGaha, NFS Scout
Kyle Childress, College Scouting Coordinator
Brent Caprio, Scouting Assistant
Anthony Foyt IV, Scouting Assistant
Mike Lacy, Scouting Assistant

[stitches]