Mock 1-17 based on team needs - Colts are now on the clock. Who are we taking?

[NewColtsFan]

10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

He can play nose, but I think he can move around also. He's super disruptive.

 

I don't expect him to be available at 18,   but do you like A'Shawn Robinson more than Reed?

 

Most rating services seem to like Robinson a little better.     Your thoughts on him?

 

[Defjamz26]

11 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

I think Spence is a lot better than Newsome.     Don't let the similarities in their story fool you.

 

Find a scouting service that doesn't think Spence is very good.      Newsroom didn't get drafted until the 5th round.      Who thinks Spence will fall that far?     No one.      4th round?     No one.

 

He's not getting past the 3rd and likely higher.     Spence didn't test well,  but look at his tape....   he plays fast.   He has a suddenness to his game that is really compelling.    Jumps off the tape, it's hard not to notice.

 

Spence has my attention.     Now, can he hold it?   Can he no screw things up?

 

We'll see........

 

 

The explosive pass rushers almost always test well. Khalil Mack, Watt, Fowler, and Miller immediately come to mind. We can point out some exceptions to the rule but the rule is still true. Even Bosa isn't really that explosive. Spence isn't a top 10 talent even without the off the field issues.

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

The explosive pass rushers almost always test well. Khalil Mack, Watt, Fowler, and Miller immediately come to mind. We can point out some exceptions to the rule but the rule is still true. Even Bosa isn't really that explosive. Spence isn't a top 10 talent even without the off the field issues.

 

Don't get me wrong....   I am NOT calling Spence a top-10 talent.    Not at all.

 

I was only saying he's a LOT better than Newsome,   and a very good player.

 

[Superman]

37 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't expect him to be available at 18,   but do you like A'Shawn Robinson more than Reed?

 

Most rating services seem to like Robinson a little better.     Your thoughts on him?

 

 

I prefer Reed because of his versatility, but Robinson is probably the better NT.

[gacker65]

Floyd or Apple

[COLTS449]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

I think you want Spence more because he's an edge rusher than a top 10 talent. I really don't think he's all that good. He seems like a Newsome clone. Same school, same situation, same skill set except Spence is a hair better I don't think he's as good as everyone makes him out to be. 

 

Plus we both know that despite meeting with him, the Colts have no intention of drafting him at 18.

 

Did you see what he did at the senior bowl? He was dominating all the top tier tackles with ease. He's nothing like Newsome. I cant see where you're getting that. Spence is very quick and explosive off the edge. He's light years ahead of Newsome, and if weren't for his off the field history I think he would definitely be a top 10 pick.

[COLTS449]

41 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I prefer Reed because of his versatility, but Robinson is probably the better NT.

 

Hey Supe. Don't mean to get off track here, but I don't know if I've ever seen you talk much about Spence. What's you thoughts on him?

[Gavin]

51 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I prefer Reed because of his versatility, but Robinson is probably the better NT.

I'm the opposite. I actually see Robinson as more versatile

[Superman]

Just now, COLTS449 said:

 

Hey Supe. I don't know if I've ever seen you talk much about Spence. What's you thoughts on him?

 

He's the best pass rusher in the draft this year, IMO. I think he's a top 15 guy. My question about his play is the level of competition, but he wrecked the Senior Bowl all week.

 

Separate from his play is the character concerns. I don't really care that he did recreational drugs in college (that's not surprising or a big deal), but he broke the rules repeatedly and lied about it repeatedly. That's a major red flag, not something you just wish away because you really like how he plays. For a team to draft him high, they have to be convinced that he's gotten past his issues, and that's not always easy to do. On one hand you have guys like Josh Gordon and Dion Jordan, and on the other hand you have guys like Justin Houston. It's a big risk/reward situation.

[MasterCrief]

14 hours ago, Surge89 said:

 

You would take Spence over Billings, Jackson III, Floyd, Reed and Apple?

 

Lol...

Short answer: Yes. 

 

Long answer: Talent wise, the only one of those guys that I see as on the same level as Spence is Billings, and Spence is at a position of much higher need than Billings. So if the front office doesn't see him as a future off-field problem (just saw that we brought him in for an interview), then absolutely. 

[COLTS449]

15 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

He's the best pass rusher in the draft this year, IMO. I think he's a top 15 guy. My question about his play is the level of competition, but he wrecked the Senior Bowl all week.

 

Separate from his play is the character concerns. I don't really care that he did recreational drugs in college (that's not surprising or a big deal), but he broke the rules repeatedly and lied about it repeatedly. That's a major red flag, not something you just wish away because you really like how he plays. For a team to draft him high, they have to be convinced that he's gotten past his issues, and that's not always easy to do. On one hand you have guys like Josh Gordon and Dion Jordan, and on the other hand you have guys like Justin Houston. It's a big risk/reward situation.

 

Yeah he dominated the senior bowl. I don't really worry about his level of competition. I mean he played well at OSU early on. He had an 8 sack season as a sophomore I think? I fully understand the concerns over his past. But I'm big on believing in young peoples ability to turn their life around and change. He's been clean and has passed every drug test since he's been at EKU, and Urban Meyer is even still supporting him. The DUI doesn't concern me. At OSU I think he was just young and made some dumb mistakes for a short period of time and I'm sure he's learned from the experiences. Its still a risk vs reward type thing, but I don't see him having any more issues since he's done this good for so long.

[Bluefire4]

Floyd with Eli Apple close behind. With our quiet free agency, there is literally 8-10 players that could be available that I would not mind drafting.

[Surge89]

8 minutes ago, MasterCrief said:

Short answer: Yes. 

 

Long answer: Talent wise, the only one of those guys that I see as on the same level as Spence is Billings, and Spence is at a position of much higher need than Billings. So if the front office doesn't see him as a future off-field problem (just saw that we brought him in for an interview), then absolutely. 

 

That is where I don't agree.  

 

I see Spence as a talent.  A bottom first round talent.  But I don't see him as another Khalil Mack (top 10 talent).  I see him on the same talent level as Billings/Jackson/Lee/Reed but has off the field concerns. So from where I'm sitting all of those said players have a higher talent rating. (when you combine everything).

 

So even if the front office clears him, why take a player you questioned at all when you can have equivalent talent and not be concerned with that?  That's in a nut shell what I'm trying to say. 

[Superman]

12 minutes ago, COLTS449 said:

But I'm big on believing in young peoples ability to turn their life around and change.

 

I don't think anyone would deny that. But just because some young people do mature and get past their youthful mistakes doesn't mean that they all will. There are enough examples of NFL players doing stupid stuff to derail their careers.

 

It will take significant background checking and in-person interviews with Spence for any team to feel comfortable drafting him. I'm not comfortable acting like I know him well enough to vouch for him, but if the Colts drafted him, I'd be excited to have him. I'd also be nervous that he'd do something stupid.

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

That is where I don't agree.  

 

I see Spence as a talent.  A bottom first round talent.  But I don't see him as another Khalil Mack (top 10 talent).  I see him on the same talent level as Billings/Jackson/Lee/Reed but has off the field concerns. So from where I'm sitting all of those said players have a higher talent rating. (when you combine everything).

 

So even if the front office clears him, why take a player you questioned at all when you can have equivalent talent and not be concerned with that?  That's in a nut shell what I'm trying to say. 

 

Everybody's scouting is different. A person who would want Spence over Billings likely thinks Spence is better than Billings. 

[COLTS449]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think anyone would deny that. But just because some young people do mature and get past their youthful mistakes doesn't mean that they all will. There are enough examples of NFL players doing stupid stuff to derail their careers.

 

It will take significant background checking and in-person interviews with Spence for any team to feel comfortable drafting him. I'm not comfortable acting like I know him well enough to vouch for him, but if the Colts drafted him, I'd be excited to have him. I'd also be nervous that he'd do something stupid.

 

See I'd be a lot more concerned if he had failed some drug tests at EKU and/or the combine, I said this in another thread but that would suggest much deeper issues. But I agree wholeheartedly that we need to dig deep into his background and interview him very thoroughly. We cant afford to screw up with our 1st rounder again.

[COLTS449]

I wouldn't mind if we drafted a William Jackson or Mackenzie Alexander either. I think Alexander may be the best cover corner in this class, but Jackson is very intriguing IMO. I can see Jackson being a big time playmaker. I like Eli Apple too, but not as much as the other two.

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, COLTS449 said:

 

See I'd be a lot more concerned if he had failed some drug tests at EKU and/or the combine, I said this in another thread but that would suggest much deeper issues. But I agree wholeheartedly that we need to dig deep into his background and interview him very thoroughly. We cant afford to screw up with our 1st rounder again.

 

I'm not gonna act like it doesn't matter, though. Neither will any NFL team. 

 

You can be okay with it, but it's not your job on the line. The Colts haven't gotten any production out of their first round pick in three years (aside from a couple big plays from Dorsett, and I like Dorsett). Grigson won't be nearly as cavalier about it as you are.

[COLTS449]

Billings is another guy I really like at 18. He has the makeup of an all pro NT IMO.

[COLTS449]

10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm not gonna act like it doesn't matter, though. Neither will any NFL team. 

 

You can be okay with it, but it's not your job on the line. The Colts haven't gotten any production out of their first round pick in three years (aside from a couple big plays from Dorsett, and I like Dorsett). Grigson won't be nearly as cavalier about it as you are.

 

I'm not being cavalier about it at all. I completely agree that before we even consider drafting him we should do our due-diligence. I'm just saying its my opinion that he'll be fine considering how well he's done since being with EKU. He seems to have grown up and to have left his pas behaviors behind.

[Superman]

Just now, COLTS449 said:

 

I'm not being cavalier about it at all. I completely agree that before we even consider drafting him we should do our due-diligence. I'm just saying its my opinion that he'll be fine.

 

But you haven't done any due diligence, aside from reading some articles on the Internet. Yet your stance is that anyone who doesn't like his history is wrong.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, gacker65 said:

Floyd or Apple

I would go Floyd but it's a crap shoot because probably only 1, maybe 2 of these guys in reality out of Floyd, Apple, Billings, Ogbah, Alexander, Kelly, Stanley will turn out to be a Great player in the Pro's. We need Great not Good so we need to nail that 1st Rounder. I can just see Floyd being Great, he has speed and length. I don't think Stanley will be there at 18 but I can see him being a Great O.Lineman in the pro's as well. Jason Spriggs is another one I like at OT but most have him going in Round 2.

[UKColt13]

Any of Noah Spence, Leonard Floyd and Mackensie Alexander.

 

Happy with any of them.

[COLTS449]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

But you haven't done any due diligence, aside from reading some articles on the Internet. Yet your stance is that anyone who doesn't like his history is wrong.

 

I'm not saying anyone is wrong. I mean I don't "like" his history. But when a kid had the issues he had, and then goes to another school, passes every drug test, and agrees to be drug tested weekly, and straightens his life up, you would assume his past is behind him. Now obviously I'm not saying GM's would assume that, but he certainly appears to have grown up from what I understand. But again. No matter what we cant afford to screw up another 1st rounder. So like I said we still need to do our due-diligence. All I'm saying is I believe in the kid's ability to keep straight. Its the staff's job to ensure he'd be safe to draft.

[crestmount]

I wouldn't draft Spence, not because of his character issue, but because I don't believe he is a 1st rd quality player.  His Combine and Pro-day were pretty underwhelming.  You need an explosive sort of guy to play the Edge in the NFL, and I don't see that in him.

 

As for Billings, he is the best NT available, but I don't believe the D-line is an issue for us--Parry did a pretty good job in his rookie year.  My only concern on the D-line is if Anderson can return as solid as he was before his injury.

 

We need to protect #12--O-line has to be #1 priority, and if a top tier O-line guy is still available in Rd 2 I say we go for him as well.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

 

I'm not saying anyone is wrong. I mean I don't "like" his history. But when a kid had the issues he had, and then goes to another school, passes every drug test, and agrees to be drug tested weekly, and straightens his life up, you would assume his past is behind him. Now obviously I'm not saying GM's would assume that, but he certainly appears to have grown up from what I understand. But again. No matter what we cant afford to screw up another 1st rounder. So like I said we still need to do our due-diligence. All I'm saying is I believe in the kid's ability to keep straight. Its the staff's job to ensure he'd be safe to draft.

 

Okay. I think you've been pretty aggressive in your stance that Spence's OSU problems are basically a non-issue for you, basically that it would be a mistake not to draft him. Maybe I'm overstating your position.

 

Where we do agree is that we can't afford to miss another first rounder, whether that's for talent or for character issues. They need to make a solid pick, so I don't blame them for disqualifying anyone that they aren't totally comfortable with off the field. I'd love Nkemdiche, but I really don't think they can afford to take the risk. Spence is less risky than Nkemdiche, IMO, but they won't draft him unless they are absolutely comfortable with him.

[Superman]

3 hours ago, crestmount said:

His Combine and Pro-day were pretty underwhelming.  You need an explosive sort of guy to play the Edge in the NFL, and I don't see that in him.

 

Watch the game film. He's plenty explosive.

 

Edit: He ran an unimpressive 3-cone, but on film, he has plenty of agility, bend and change of direction ability. He can bend the corner, he can close on the QB, and he pursues well. He has burst from a three point stance and a quick first step from a two point stance. Explosiveness is not an issue with Spence. He needs to refine his technique, and he'll be a double digit sack guy.

 

http://draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=258081&gif=WickedPoisedGemsbuck

[ColtsBlueFL]

18 hours ago, Superman said:

 

He can play nose, but I think he can move around also. He's super disruptive.

 

 

In the run game.  He can anchor well, command double teams, and is super disruptive in the run game. 

 

"Often comes out on pass rush downs, does not get up-field push, and limited use of hands in pass rush.  Projects as a DT or 3-4 DE."  Bill Roos RFN.

[gacker65]

6 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would go Floyd but it's a crap shoot because probably only 1, maybe 2 of these guys in reality out of Floyd, Apple, Billings, Ogbah, Alexander, Kelly, Stanley will turn out to be a Great player in the Pro's. We need Great not Good so we need to nail that 1st Rounder. I can just see Floyd being Great, he has speed and length. I don't think Stanley will be there at 18 but I can see him being a Great O.Lineman in the pro's as well. Jason Spriggs is another one I like at OT but most have him going in Round 2.

Floyd or Apple

[NewColtsFan]

6 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

Billings is another guy I really like at 18. He has the makeup of an all pro NT IMO.

 

There just aren't many all-pro NT's at sub-6'1" and 310.

 

The odds of Billings being one are not great.

 

He might good.     He might even be very good.     But all pro?     At his size?      Not very likely.

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

26 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

There just aren't many all-pro NT's at sub-6'1" and 310.

 

The odds of Billings being one are not great.

 

He might good.     He might even be very good.     But all pro?     At his size?      Not very likely.

 

 

 more of a 3-4 DE.  As is Reed, but Reed might be able t move around against the run.

[COLTS449]

31 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

There just aren't many all-pro NT's at sub-6'1" and 310.

 

The odds of Billings being one are not great.

 

He might good.     He might even be very good.     But all pro?     At his size?      Not very likely.

 

 

Bottom Line

Billings won't turn 21 until March of 2016, but he has the overwhelming strength of a full­-grown NFL defensive tackle. With elite power and unusual closing speed for a big man, Billings has a chance to become something we rarely see ­-- a playmaking nose tackle with the ability to dominate at the point of attack. Teams will decide through research and interviews whether Billings can handle the NFL life at such a young age, but if he can, he has all-­pro potential

[COLTS449]

For you guys talking about Jarran Reed. In our 34 I see his best fit being NT. But he does have the versatility to play all over the DL, though. That kid is an absolute monster against the run, and I think he can improve his pass rush somewhat. I like other DT's better but I wouldn't be mad if we took him.

[Moncrief]

Although I'm not a big advocate of Spence I wouldn't mind taking him, IF all checks out well. I like his game speed but I'm hesitant because i want our players to pass the shorts and eye test (Combine) and check off all boxes.

 

I like Leonard Floyd and what he has on tape. I feel like if you get him in an NFL training facility he'll be good. It was said that he was asked about being an ILB in a 3-4 and I almost feel like that would be a good spot for him, to start his career at least.

 

I'm still either Alexander or Billings depending on the day, then Floyd and a conglomerate of players and trade scenarios from there on but Floyd is rising from my view over here

[COLTS449]

With the 18th pick of the 2016 NFL draft.....The Indianapolis Colts select............(The supence builds).....Derrick Henry....Running Back....University of Alabama. And then we all riot. Then we hope for some good offensive lineman or something in the 2nd. And with the 2nd round pick we select......Jacoby Brissett QB NC State.

 

 

LOL. Can you guys imagine. I'm making a joke because I don't see anything like this happening with Grigson's job on the line, but man, LOL.I would be so PO'ed.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

 more of a 3-4 DE.  As is Reed, but Reed might be able t move around against the run.

 

The difference is Reed is 203 inches taller and can up and down the line....

 

I don't think Billings can play anywhere but the nose in the NFL.      At his size, I think he'd be swallowed up by tackles and guards if he played any place else.....   (just my two cents, and often not even worth that much)

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, COLTS449 said:

 

Bottom Line

Billings won't turn 21 until March of 2016, but he has the overwhelming strength of a full­-grown NFL defensive tackle. With elite power and unusual closing speed for a big man, Billings has a chance to become something we rarely see ­-- a playmaking nose tackle with the ability to dominate at the point of attack. Teams will decide through research and interviews whether Billings can handle the NFL life at such a young age, but if he can, he has all-­pro potential

 

Which website is this?    Edit note:   I see this is from NFL.com.     Hmmm?    Interesting perspective....

 

When I select a 1st round draft pick I'd like to get a decade out of him.     I don't see a sub-6'1" 310 pound NT holding up for a decade.      That's a lot of tonnage crashing down on him for 10 years.

 

[COLTS449]

19 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Which website is this?    Edit note:   I see this is from NFL.com.     Hmmm?    Interesting perspective....

 

When I select a 1st round draft pick I'd like to get a decade out of him.     I don't see a sub-6'1" 310 pound NT holding up for a decade.      That's a lot of tonnage crashing down on him for 10 years.

 

 

I usually go to NFL.Com's draft tracker. Which do you prefer? I go to CBS sometimes, but I'm not to big on them. Rob Rang in specific.

[NewColtsFan]

35 minutes ago, COLTS449 said:

 

I usually go to NFL.Com's draft tracker. Which do you prefer? I go to CBS sometimes, but I'm not to big on them. Rob Rang in specific.

 

I almost always prefer NFL.com to CBSSports.com.      I use CBS as a 3rd source to either confirm or to break any tiebreakers.     Sometimes they're pretty good.    And sometimes they miss the mark by several miles.

 

NFL.com has so many good people...

 

Tops are Jeremiah and Brooks,  both of whom were NFL scouts.   Then, I like Manock and Davis.

 

And it's Lance Zierlein who does the profile write-ups, and he does all the rankings.   The only problem with them is that they're written BEFORE the combine so sometimes they look out of date.     For example,  the write-up on Ryan Kelly talks about him needing to add muscle mass....    but that was back when he was listed at 295.   He shows up to the combine tipping the scale at 311 and everyone takes note of how good he looks.   And he tested very well.     But the profile still talks about needing to add weight, so it's clearly NOT updated.     I think that's a flaw.

 

Between those five guys,  they do a really, really good job.

 

It's why I like McShay and his two sidekicks.    That's a 3 person group who all played college football.   They've been doing this for 10-years so they have a very good track record.    I prefer a broad approach over a solo-act like Kiper,  though for a single man he does a very good job.     I know he's a cartoon character, but again,  he does a good job.

 

 

 

[Defjamz26]

15 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

 

Did you see what he did at the senior bowl? He was dominating all the top tier tackles with ease. He's nothing like Newsome. I cant see where you're getting that. Spence is very quick and explosive off the edge. He's light years ahead of Newsome, and if weren't for his off the field history I think he would definitely be a top 10 pick.

 

Thats the Senior Bowl. He'll be going into the NFL though and facing better comes competition. I don't see him being a 10+ sack a year guy. Maybe 6.5-8 a year.

 

I just don't see the "it" factor with him.