Any chance we get a pick

[12isthenew18]

From antoine bethea leaving. We didn't sign anyone and neither did we draft one. Like could we gain a 4th rounder?

[Valpo2004]

From antoine bethea leaving. We didn't sign anyone and neither did we draft one. Like could we gain a 4th rounder?

 

Nope, it's pretty much a net of signings verses players who's contract ran out and where signed by another team.

 

We signed Art Jones to a big big contract, far bigger then Bethea's.  We won't be getting a supplimentary pick or whatever they are called.

[Bluefire4]

We probably won't get a compensatory pick until after Luck's contract.

[Superman]

We probably won't get a supplementary pick until after Luck's contract.

 

That doesn't have anything to do with compensatory picks.

[Bluefire4]

That doesn't have anything to do with compensatory picks.

Oops.. that's what I meant. And I said that because when Luck receives his big contract we'll probably sign less free agents and let go of more people.

[Superman]

Nope, it's pretty much a net of signings verses players who's contract ran out and where signed by another team.

 

We signed Art Jones to a big big contract, far bigger then Bethea's.  We won't be getting a supplimentary pick or whatever they are called.

 

Jones probably cancels out Bethea. Nicks probably cancels out Donald Brown. If I understand correctly, Costa doesn't count, and Adams was post June 1 so he doesn't count either. We lost a few other lower level guys who are playing for other teams, so maybe we'll get a 7th rounder, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Superman]

Oops.. that's what I meant. And I said that because when Luck receives his big contract we'll probably sign less free agents and let go of more people.

 

Ah.

 

Well that signing fewer guys has already started. Only two compensatory worthy signings this past offseason, and a lot of guys walked. But still, we probably don't get anything noteworthy, if anything at all.

[Smonroe]

Jones probably cancels out Bethea. Nicks probably cancels out Donald Brown. If I understand correctly, Costa doesn't count, and Adams was post June 1 so he doesn't count either. We lost a few other lower level guys who are playing for other teams, so maybe we'll get a 7th rounder, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

I think you summed it up well.  Those 7th round picks aren't much better than an UDFA anyway. 

[Superman]

I think you summed it up well.  Those 7th round picks aren't much better than an UDFA anyway. 

 

Thing about having a 7th round compensatory pick is, even though you can't trade it, it makes it that much easier to part with your 7th rounder if you have your eye on someone. As it stands, I believe we have a 6th from Burley, a 7th from Rayford, and our own 7th. More resources is always better.

[Valpo2004]

Jones probably cancels out Bethea. Nicks probably cancels out Donald Brown. If I understand correctly, Costa doesn't count, and Adams was post June 1 so he doesn't count either. We lost a few other lower level guys who are playing for other teams, so maybe we'll get a 7th rounder, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

Considering the contract amounts I think Jones would more then cancel out Bethea.  His Average per year would I believe pay both Bethea and Brown's salary.

 

Of course it's hard to say because the formula isn't known by anyone outside of the NFL.  And production I think is a part of it.

 

Our biggest chance is that because of the Charger's injuries at RB that Brown gets so many carries that he puts up career numbers and his production delivers us a supplemental pick.

 

But as you said I wouldn't hold my breath.  I really don't think we get one.  

[Superman]

Considering the contract amounts I think Jones would more then cancel out Bethea.  His Average per year would I believe pay both Bethea and Brown's salary.

 

Of course it's hard to say because the formula isn't known by anyone outside of the NFL.  And production I think is a part of it.

 

Our biggest chance is that because of the Charger's injuries at RB that Brown gets so many carries that he puts up career numbers and his production delivers us a supplemental pick.

 

But as you said I wouldn't hold my breath.  I really don't think we get one.  

 

You're right that no one really knows the formula, but I believe it's a one-for-one thing. If I sign one player for six years, $60m, but I lose four players for three year, $15m, I'm still behind 4 to 1, and should get a pick. That's my understanding, which could be entirely inaccurate.

 

If it worked the way you say, then Donald Brown's contract would more than cancel out Nicks'.

 

Also, Bethea's contract isn't that much smaller than Jones'. Bethea is four years, $5.25m/year, Jones is five years, $6.6m/year. 

[Le Neon]

Does production factor into the formula as well as contracts? Time to root for Donald Brown to break the rushing record?

[Smonroe]

Thing about having a 7th round compensatory pick is, even though you can't trade it, it makes it that much easier to part with your 7th rounder if you have your eye on someone. As it stands, I believe we have a 6th from Burley, a 7th from Rayford, and our own 7th. More resources is always better.

 

I get what you're saying, and it's correct, at least as far as providing options.

 

I'm just saying that a 7th is not worth much more than a UDFA.  I think under this regime, no 7th rounder has made (or stuck on) the active roster.  But several UDFA's have made the team.

[Valpo2004]

You're right that no one really knows the formula, but I believe it's a one-for-one thing. If I sign one player for six years, $60m, but I lose four players for three year, $15m, I'm still behind 4 to 1, and should get a pick. That's my understanding, which could be entirely inaccurate.

 

If it worked the way you say, then Donald Brown's contract would more than cancel out Nicks'.

 

Also, Bethea's contract isn't that much smaller than Jones'. Bethea is four years, $5.25m/year, Jones is five years, $6.6m/year. 

 

Hmm I really overestimated how much Jones was being paid.  For some reason I thought he was more in the 9 mil range.  Perhaps I'm thinking of someone else?

 

Edit: i just looked and I was thinking of Vontae's extension which averages out to 9 mil.

[Valpo2004]

Does production factor into the formula as well as contracts? Time to root for Donald Brown to break the rushing record?

 

I'm pretty sure it does but no one is sure how much it's factored in or even how it's factored in.  

 

Really it's extremely odd how secret this formula really is.  Part of me thinks there might not be a formula at all and it's just all subjective.

 

Really I still think the supplemental picks are stupid.  If they want to add 32 more picks to the draft then just add an 8th round.

[Superman]

I get what you're saying, and it's correct, at least as far as providing options.

 

I'm just saying that a 7th is not worth much more than a UDFA.  I think under this regime, no 7th rounder has made (or stuck on) the active roster.  But several UDFA's have made the team.

 

That's what I'm saying, you can move your other late round picks for someone you want, or to trade up, or whatever. And you still have your compensatory 7th, for that hot UDFA that you're not sure you'll be able to sign. It's not a big deal, either way.

[Superman]

I'm pretty sure it does but no one is sure how much it's factored in or even how it's factored in.  

 

Really it's extremely odd how secret this formula really is.  Part of me thinks there might not be a formula at all and it's just all subjective.

 

Really I still think the supplemental picks are stupid.  If they want to add 32 more picks to the draft then just add an 8th round.

 

Some teams get decimated in free agency, though, and get really valuable compensatory picks. It's a lot more than just adding another round. And I don't think it's subjective, as some people have been able to predict pretty closely what teams are going to get picks, and in what rounds. But yeah, that the formula is so under wraps is weird. Maybe it changes from time to time...

[Superman]

Hmm I really overestimated how much Jones was being paid.  For some reason I thought he was more in the 9 mil range.  Perhaps I'm thinking of someone else?

 

Edit: i just looked and I was thinking of Vontae's extension which averages out to 9 mil.

 

Yeah, and obviously Vontae doesn't count against the comp system.

[Superman]

Does production factor into the formula as well as contracts? Time to root for Donald Brown to break the rushing record?

 

I'm rooting for every free agent that signed somewhere else before June 1. Brown, Conner, Bethea, Mathews, McGlynn, Link, etc. 

[Valpo2004]

Some teams get decimated in free agency, though, and get really valuable compensatory picks. It's a lot more than just adding another round. And I don't think it's subjective, as some people have been able to predict pretty closely what teams are going to get picks, and in what rounds. But yeah, that the formula is so under wraps is weird. Maybe it changes from time to time...

 

But if you are decimated in free agency isn't that your own fault though?  

 

It's minor I know but it seems like an unnecessary inequality and I'm not a fan of any inequality that isn't centered around helping bad teams get better.

[Superman]

But if you are decimated in free agency isn't that your own fault though?  

 

It's minor I know but it seems like an unnecessary inequality and I'm not a fan of any inequality that isn't centered around helping bad teams get better.

 

Getting decimated in free agency isn't necessarily anyone's fault. If you draft well, you're going to lose good players to free agency (that's why we haven't lost a lot of good players to free agency, because the drafting was so poor at the end of the Polian era). You just can't keep them all. And if you have a veteran QB on a big contract, it's even worse.

 

Now some teams, like the Cowboys, have lost a lot of players recently because of poor cap management. So when they cut Ware, that's their fault, and they don't get compensatory help for that. The Pats wanted to clear Mankins, so they traded him, creating their own compensation. 

 

The compensatory system is meant to make up for teams that routinely get outbid by teams with more signing bonus money, or whatever, because they're willing to overpay in free agency. It's supposed to correct an inequality, not create one. It might not be perfect, but the purpose isn't simply to add 32 extra picks.