What Will Get For The Luck Pick?

[unitaswestand]

Ok, I am one to think that if Manning is healthy next year, there is absolutely no way we pick Andrew Luck. Why?

1) Luck will not sit behind Manning for our years

2) If we drafted Luck and traded Manning, it will take a few years for Luck to be good. By the time he is good, the rest of the team will be old are gone. So I think you are looking at 3-5 years of the Colts being bad.

3) The Colts,with Manning, can content now for the Super Bowl. I think the urge to pull a John Elway is too great. This is a win now league.

4) If the Colts were determined that they were going to draft Luck, why not IR Manning if he is as good as gone?

So that said, I believe very much the Colts will bluff a bit and trade away the Luck pick. Now, I believe he is worth two #1s and a #2. So lets say we trade that pick to Miami this year and Miami has like the #3 pick. With the #3 overall pick, I think we go for WR Blackmon to have another great Colts WR. Then with our own #2 at the top of the second round and the third pick ini the #2 round from Miami, we likely go cornerbacks. Finally, next year, we likely have another top 10 pick from the Dolphins since Luck won't do that well as a rookie. Here we pick a pass rusher to replace Mathis/Freeney that is good at run and pass.

The Colts are Super Bowl contenders for the next four years while bringing in some blue chip talent. I really don't know how you can beat that combination. And I would say in two years, look at picking Mannings reaplacement.

So, I am curious as to what you all think we can get fo that pick assuming we want to trade it?

[chrisfarley]

What makes you think Manning won't re-injure his neck or develop more problems. And Luck knows this too so he knows Mannings days are numbered. He has no choice, he must get drafted by the team that drafts him. He won't pull an ELI or ELWAY and if he does, we can simply refuse.

[deedub75]

What makes you think Manning won't re-injure his neck or develop more problems. And Luck knows this too so he knows Mannings days are numbered. He has no choice, he must get drafted by the team that drafts him. He won't pull an ELI or ELWAY and if he does, we can simply refuse.

He could just stay in college. He has a year of eligibility left.

[reddmmann]

What Will Get For The Luck Pick

Andrew Luck

[Regrouper]

unitaswestand I think you make a lot of sense! If Manning is cleared & ready then we trust

that he is back for several years. We don't have a crystal ball but if he heals then he is back.

We should get as much as we can for the no. 1 pick & with a new defensive minded head coach

we are right where we need to be.

The Colts will not force Luck to come here (just to sit on the bench). If Luck doesn't want to be in Indy

they will work a trade.

The entire team is built for Manning & that's why I believe the Colts stay with him (if healthy, of course).

[DeathCo]

Lets not get into the debate of: do we trade it or keep the pick?... let this be a debate / conversation in the hypothetical scenario that we DO trade the pick.

What are the ramifications and scenarios that best benefit the team (besides keeping the pick and getting Luck)

All you couch GMs out there... lets hear what you would do with the trade. Lets hear from all the draft experts on this board on what we could expect and what are the best choices for this team.

[asucolt606]

You for sure need to trade the number one pick and not pick Luck then trade him because Luck is not worth as much as people think. Did you see his game versus Oregon. Oregon is not the best defensively. I think Sarkisian of Washington hit it right on the head when he said Barkley is the better QB. Mark my words whoever drafts Luck will be making a grave mistake. Trade the number one Pick and let someone else make this mistake and watch as the media rips Luck into submission as he struggles to get his grip in the NFL. We have Peyton anyways, draft a defensive playmaker round one and with all the other picks we get fill the squad out accordingly with young, hungry talent.

[19colt]

I agree, Luck may not even be the best QB in this class.

I tend to think that if the Colts were 5-4 that Manning would be practicing right now priming himself for a run at the playoffs. He will be fine next year.

[swflacoltsfans]

SHHHH dont say he isn't that good someone will hear you.

[pacolts56]

If the front office decides to trade the #1 overall pick then IMO the minimum acceptable price should be.....

Two 1st round picks, two second round picks and a young Pro Bowler at NT, OG or CB.

Back when that * Elway forced his trade away from the Colts.... we got crap QB Mark Hermann, LT Chris Hinton and a year later OG Ron Solt.... and as it turned out, Hinton was the only part of that trade that was worth a darn.

We'll find out how good Andrew Luck is in 2-3 years.... I happen to think he'll be a legitimate NFL franchise QB, which is why I am not content with only draft picks as compensation, but also a Pro Bowl NFL starter that fills one of our chronic needs.

If we let this kid go in a trade, we darn well better get a top line starter as part of the deal and not just a bunch of draft picks that are every bit the crapshoot that anti-Luck fans say that he is.

And if another NFL team sees him as their answer at QB like Denver did Elway.... Polian better make em' pay up.

[mahagga73]

They are not trading the pick.Peyton is 36 with a neck situation.If they pass on a potential franchise QB for maybe a few more years of PM they are insane.

[SilentHill]

If we trade the pick we will literally be able to solve ALL of our defensive woes. Thwe problem is, do you trade a potentially great QB just to fix all the mistakes the polians have made over the last 5 years?

[pacolts56]

If we trade the pick we will literally be able to solve ALL of our defensive woes. Thwe problem is, do you trade a potentially great QB just to fix all the mistakes the polians have made over the last 5 years?

My short answer is no, you don't. But the OPs premise is that the pick gets traded so I named my price in my above post.

For whatever reason the front office decides to trade the pick..... I would insist on a Pro Bowl player at a position of need for us as a hedge against 1 or more of the 4 draft picks we also get being busts. And due precisely to the mistakes Polian has made that you mentioned.

If we pass on Andrew Luck we need to AT LEAST know we solved a glaring need for the long term.

[pables21]

I agree that we need more than just picks for Luck. We will have the most valuable #1 pick in years, so it will cost a team a hefty price tag. Although I want to take Luck, I would be very interested in a deal with Miami if they included LT Jake Long. Not sure if they would, but Miami desperately needs a franchise franchise QB and would give up a lot for Luck. Here is what I am thinking:

Colts trade: #1 overall pick to Miami

Dolphins trade: LT Jake Long, 1st-Round Pick, 2nd-Round Pick, 4th-Round Pick

Again they probably wouldn't offer that much but it is possible. If I were the Colts, I would definitely do it. Each of Miami's picks would be a Top 3 pick in each round, so we would have lots of great options and should draft some great talent. We could even use the Dolphins 1st-Round Pick to trade down and acquire Cleveland's two 1st-Rounders. Either way, we would have an awesome draft, and our offensive line would be shored up for years.

This kind of trade would be a great offer for Luck, but nothing short of this would be worth it. Luck is going to be great, so only an absolutely killer offer would be worth trading him. What do you think?

[dn4192]

I. You don't trade out of the number 1 slot unless someone gives you stupid back in return

2. Not one team will give you back stupid amount of picks/players for it.

3. You don't "pass" on a QB with the grade that Luck will grade out with

4. You don't worry about Peyton Manning

5. There is no other player in this draft that will grade out higher then Luck and will have a bigger impact on a frachise then Luck.

[pables21]

Everyone is correct in saying that we only trade out if we get an absolutely amazing offer that we can't refuse. With that being said, I wonder what kind of offers we could get and which teams would be interested. I can't wait to find out... as bad as the season as been, it should definitely be a very exciting offseason.

[pacolts56]

I. You don't trade out of the number 1 slot unless someone gives you stupid back in return

2. Not one team will give you back stupid amount of picks/players for it.

3. You don't "pass" on a QB with the grade that Luck will grade out with

4. You don't worry about Peyton Manning

5. There is no other player in this draft that will grade out higher then Luck and will have a bigger impact on a frachise then Luck.

At a projected salary (including bonuses) of around 25 million, I think a few teams could be kicking down the doors to get him knowing that the financial risk has been basically cut by more than half.

I'd prefer that we take Luck with the #1 pick for that very same reason.... but if Peyton is 100% healthy and IF all indications are that he can and will finish out his 4 years, then I believe we can also benefit by a smart trade-down that nets us a Pro Bowl-level starter in addition to 3-4 extra draft picks.

From a negotiating standpoint, the HUGE amount of money saved thru the rookie salary cap is our friend.... and we should milk it for all its worth if we trade the pick. If Andrew Luck is as highly touted to NFL GMs as he has been everywhere else.... then I don't think that is an unreasonable price for the #1 pick.

I must admit I'm not terribly optimistic about Peyton finishing out his full contract.... and that is why I favor drafting Luck as part of a full rebuild that is somewhat underway with Castonzo, Ijalana, Nevis and Carter having come aboard.

Theoretically.... we could almost finish the offensive side of the rebuild in this draft with or without trading the pick.

If we select Luck and a top-rated OG at #33.... and slide Pollak to C, we've in large part set the foundation of the O-line and at QB.

If we trade the pick..... we can add a few more pieces with a QB to groom more gradually, although not a QB of Luck's stature.

But IMO we should demand a top line NFL starter in any trade-down deal. A DT or CB would help immensely on retooling our defense. Assuming this is under a scenario where Peyton is healthy again.... that starter we acquire just might make the difference at a legitimate Super Bowl shot, depending upon his position. Getting back to the SB with a huge influx of rookies and without some of the veterans we now have might be pretty tough.

None of us control any of these events and we don't know the outcome.... but we should be prepared for whatever happens.

[super8todd]

For the #1 Luck Pick.... we will get Andrew Luck. Duh.

[asucolt606]

For the #1 Luck Pick.... we will get Andrew Luck. Duh.

Yeah good thing you are not the GM, Although Bill Polian may think the same. Let me ask you in poker do you show your hand before placing a bet. We need to play it off like all these teams are offering huge packages for the pick. We can get so much for this pick its sickening. Yeah might as well unplug the phone come draft day... Listen to offers and take the best one. We got the right guy last time in Manning but look at what happened to the team that got Leaf. If Luck is Leaf we are 8-9 years from competing and this is not acceptable!!!

[wordofmouth]

If the front office decides to trade the #1 overall pick then IMO the minimum acceptable price should be.....

Two 1st round picks, two second round picks and a young Pro Bowler at NT, OG or CB.

Back when that * Elway forced his trade away from the Colts.... we got crap QB Mark Hermann, LT Chris Hinton and a year later OG Ron Solt.... and as it turned out, Hinton was the only part of that trade that was worth a darn.

We'll find out how good Andrew Luck is in 2-3 years.... I happen to think he'll be a legitimate NFL franchise QB, which is why I am not content with only draft picks as compensation, but also a Pro Bowl NFL starter that fills one of our chronic needs.

If we let this kid go in a trade, we darn well better get a top line starter as part of the deal and not just a bunch of draft picks that are every bit the crapshoot that anti-Luck fans say that he is.

And if another NFL team sees him as their answer at QB like Denver did Elway.... Polian better make em' pay up.

Good job PA, 10 posts in and finally someone answers the question!

I'm not a college football guy so I can't really evaluate his worth, but what you are calling for seems a bit high. But who knows, the more the better.

I think if Peyton is healthy, we insist on a Pro Bowl calliber vet or two. If not, we might as well take all picks unless we can get a very young established player.