the coaching staff just quit.

[BOTT]

Yeah.. Ron Rivera is one of the few guys that realize "the book " is absurd in these situations. There really is no book because these guys have no clue as to what the % move in these situations really is. Belichick and Rivera are the only two guys I can think of that have the balls and brains to actually figure out their best chance to win he game. There is just no way that you win that game more times punting than you do going for it. Probably something like if you punt 100 times you never win and you win maybe 2-3 times in 100 if you go for it. By never , I'm saying that it's probably about 1 in 150 times. 

 

 

People think all these coaches are near genius guys. That's so far from the truth it's funny. I remember the Jets hired a guy to help Herm Edwards with clock management. Caldwell for us was another numbskull when it came down to 2 minute decisions. Not saying Pagano is an * but he too has a lot of difficulty in this area of coaching. Mark my words that in the next few years there will be huge changes in this area... similar to what we are now seeing with baseball.

The information is out there, I'm not sure why these guys aren't on top of it. Baffling. Then again, most of them were PE majors.

[jvan1973]

I saw one coach go for it from about the same spot with the lead. He was figuring out his best chance to win he game and came to the conclusion that his best chance was to try for the first down rather than punt. I can't remember his name, I do remember the guy is a lock to be a 1st ballot HOF coach. For the life of me I can't remember the guy's name. Any chance you can help me with it ? I think his first name might have been something like William or Bill......

bad example, he didn't make it

[Dustin]

4th and 7. Down 17 points on their own side of the 50 with about 8 minutes left.

Mike Mccoy and the Chargers go for it. Convert. Score a TD, recover an onside kick and makes it a one score game with about 3:50 minutes left.

[dw49]

bad example, he didn't make it

 

 

It's not a bad example because he didn't make it , unless you are trying to say that a good decision is a bad one if it doesn't work out ? My son plays poker for a living . According to you if he plays his hand correctly (according to the math) and losses the hand because an opponent made a lucky draw .. he played the hand wrong ?

[dw49]

The information is out there, I'm not sure why these guys aren't on top of it. Baffling. Then again, most of them were PE majors.

 

 

I'm very familiar with the Pagano family. Had multiple dinners with John ( now OC for SD) and one with his dad also. Met Chuck and talked to him a few times on the phone. Believe me ... these are just guys. Coach Pagano is no doubt a players coach and the players love him. Good leader of men... genius .. Belichick type mind ? ... no way Jose. He just plain is not a good coach in these game type decisions. The SD  game was way worse than this one as he actually punted away a game we had a decent chance to win. Lets face it .. in this game he just lowered our odds fro about 3% to less than 1%. No big deal as we were going home anyway.

[-JJ-]

I saw one coach go for it from about the same spot with the lead. He was figuring out his best chance to win he game and came to the conclusion that his best chance was to try for the first down rather than punt. I can't remember his name, I do remember the guy is a lock to be a 1st ballot HOF coach. For the life of me I can't remember the guy's name. Any chance you can help me with it ? I think his first name might have been something like William or Bill......

I think you mean BB   Yeah and that was with the lead. You can gamble with a lead.

[-JJ-]

4th and 7. Down 17 points on their own side of the 50 with about 8 minutes left.

Mike Mccoy and the Chargers go for it. Convert. Score a TD, recover an onside kick and makes it a one score game with about 3:50 minutes left.

geez, figures you would have it- the walking football encyclopedia

 

Still own side of 50- what was this ..less than the 30 wasn't it?

[dw49]

4th and 7. Down 17 points on their own side of the 50 with about 8 minutes left.

Mike Mccoy and the Chargers go for it. Convert. Score a TD, recover an onside kick and makes it a one score game with about 3:50 minutes left.

 

 

T

 

I think you mean BB   Yeah and that was with the lead. You can gamble with a lead.

 

That makes absolutely zero sense. Did you just spout that off or did you actually think before you wrote that ?

[ponyboy]

geez, figures you would have it- the walking football encyclopedia

 

Still own side of 50- what was this ..less than the 30 wasn't it?

 

He was referring to what happened tonight in the SD/Denver game..  ironically as this thread was in progress.  A very similar situation to what was being discussed here (down by 17, 4th and 7 about 8 minutes left in the 4th)... and yes SD went for it instead of punting.

[jvan1973]

It's not a bad example because he didn't make it , unless you are trying to say that a good decision is a bad one if it doesn't work out ? My son plays poker for a living . According to you if he plays his hand correctly (according to the math) and losses the hand because an opponent made a lucky draw .. he played the hand wrong ?

first off, i didn't agree with punting in that situation last night. But the example you gave was an apples to oranges situation to the one last night.

Second, in poker there is an absolute best hand every time If you don't have it, there is always a chance to lose the hand.

[dw49]

first off, i didn't agree with punting in that situation last night. But the example you gave was an apples to oranges situation to the one last night.

Second, in poker there is an absolute best hand every time If you don't have it, there is always a chance to lose the hand.

 

 

It's not apples to oranges . It's making the best  4th down decision that gives you the best chance of winning the ball game. It doesn't matter if your ahead or behind. It's similar to the matrices if you are counting cards in black jack. If you don't count cards you always hit 16 against a 10. If you do this 1000 times you will win probably 2 3 more hands than if you stay. Now if you count and the deck goes to the slightest bit (+1) positive you stay. The reason is that you now will win slightly more hands in the long run by staying. same thing for other plays like doubling with 10 vs a 9. 

 

 

I'm talking about making decisions that better your chances of winning. Doesn't matter if you ahead , behind or even. 

 

As for your poker remark , I have no clue what you are talking about. You made a comment ( "bad example, he didn't make it " ) that the Belichick example was bad because it failed. I replied that because it failed , it doesn't make it a wrong decision and used the poker analogy. You now refer to having what they call having "the nuts" and I have no idea how noi having it in poker relates to what we are talking about.

[sfergson727]

I don't know, giving the ball back to one of the leagues best QB's when you are 21 points down in the 4th, on a relatively easy 4th down makes perfect sense to me..............................................  Provided that the Colts coaching staff was either brain dead, or gave up on any chance to save the game.  

 

Rationalize it all you want guys, they screwed up, end of story.

[dw49]

I don't know, giving the ball back to one of the leagues best QB's when you are 21 points down in the 4th, on a relatively easy 4th down makes perfect sense to me..............................................  Provided that the Colts coaching staff was either brain dead, or gave up on any chance to save the game.  

 

Rationalize it all you want guys, they screwed up, end of story.

 

 

Of coarse they did. The whole last 3 downs are brain dead. 

 

1st down they make 9. So then they throw downfield on both 2nd and 3rd down. If you plan on punting on 4th and 1 , why don't you run the stupid ball and get your 1st down. Did they really think that the Pats would be playing run... up by 3 td's with 10 minutes left. They surprised no one by throwing the ball on  2nd and 3rd down. If the plan was to punt , run 2 high % plays for the yard.

[-JJ-]

He was referring to what happened tonight in the SD/Denver game..  ironically as this thread was in progress.  A very similar situation to what was being discussed here (down by 17, 4th and 7 about 8 minutes left in the 4th)... and yes SD went for it instead of punting.

I missed that play. What yard line was it on? Also 8 minutes is not 10:30 minutes. I know nitpicking but  2.5 minutes is bigger.

 

edit- I see- their own side of the 50. Even more reason.

[CS Colts Fan]

 No one has brought up that with one yard and let Luck make the first down... do the fake like we did with TR in the KC game... 

[Jason_]

no it doesn't

Don't see how anyone can watch the colts all year and say they were well coached and prepared

A poorly coached ream does not have multiple come from behind wins. A poorly coached team does not beat powerhouse teams like San Fran, Seattle, Denver, kc x 2 etc. A poorly coached team does not win 11 regular season games and a playoff game with all of the injuries to key personnel that the colts suffered this year.

They've made mistakes along the way and will continue to learn from them and adjust accordingly as they did through the season this year.

Even the greats like bellichik made mistakes in the first years as HC. if you expected our staff to be perfect from day one then that's on you for setting unrealistic expectations.

[Jason_]

Please! Stop giving Chuck compliments...Fox has experience and can usually manage the game.

Coach Chuck has NOTHING that would make him a head coach...no experience, no ability to prepare his team, no ability to manage the game and make in-game adjustments...just a players' friend with a big tendency to exagerrate (like Trent Richardson is 'a rolling ball of butcher knives').

No ability to make in game adjustments? LOL. Multiple come from behind wins prove you are 100% wrong.

[JoKeR]

Sorry, with 10 min left,down 3 TDs, with bad field position, you punt the ball. Just try to make another stop.