Not taking a RB in the 1st round

[DaColts85]

15 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Just for a little thought.  PFF ranked just ranked our OL 25th this year.  Number one line this year Tennesse. No2. Dallas.  Last year the Titans ranked 25th at the end of the year.  Improvements can happen.  We did add a lot of young players to the line.  I see our line trending up and we could still add a meaningful player through FA or draft. 

I do see where you are going but this is not a fair argument.  Tennessee was able to get better with top draft picks on the line (Lewan, Conklin)  and some FA moves plus some times teams hit on guys that others don't (Spain, Kline for them).  Not that we have not began to do the same but they also have some good run blocking guys and we have more pass blocking guys.

[MPStack]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

The thing people make mistake about when putting forward this argument is misevaluating the chance of getting a good RB in the later rounds. Yes, you can get a good RB in the 4th or 5th... how many picks do you have to spend before you hit on one though? That's the real question. If you throw away 7-8 picks in the 4th-7th range before you hit your Jordan Howard, is this really a successful strategy? I wish there was some research into pick value by pick number and by position. Do you guys know of a resource that has this kind of info?

 

That`s the thing many people don`t take into account. Hitting on the Jordan Howard in the 5th is like winning the lotto. It`s easier said than done. Everyone who thinks we`ll get our future starter in the 5th or 6th round is wishful thinking and not logical. Now it doesn`t mean take a RB in the 1st Rd either. I`m betting a great deal of the late round gems, were not being drafted as immediate starters and an established starting RB was already there when a lot of these guys were drafted. Personally, I don`t like taking a RB in the 1st, but in the Colts situation, I think they need to in the 2nd or 3rd for sure. Gore got his 1000, however, they need more than a mere 65 yds per game. They need fresh legs next season.   

[Andrew Luck fan club]

4 minutes ago, MPStack said:

That`s the thing many people don`t take into account. Hitting on the Jordan Howard in the 5th is like winning the lotto. It`s easier said than done. Everyone who thinks we`ll get our future starter in the 5th or 6th round is wishful thinking and not logical. Now it doesn`t mean take a RB in the 1st Rd either. I`m betting a great deal of the late round gems, were not being drafted as immediate starters and an established starting RB was already there when a lot of these guys were drafted. Personally, I don`t like taking a RB in the 1st, but in the Colts situation, I think they need to in the 2nd or 3rd for sure. Gore got his 1000, however, they need more than a mere 65 yds per game. They need fresh legs next season.   

All good points. Although I think the Colts will be fine with gore/turbin for one more season(plus a mid-late RB pick) and we should focus all the early picks on defense. Preferably 1-3.

[krunk]

No I think we need to add some youthful speed/power.  Gore is 34 although I dont mind having him back as a piece.

[MPStack]

Just now, 12to13 said:

All good points. Although I think the Colts will be fine with gore/turbin for one more season(plus a mid-late RB pick) and we should focus all the early picks on defense. Preferably 1-3.

 

The Colts can go in several directions via FA and the draft. With that being said, they are still at least two seasons away from being any sort of contender, which I stated before last year's draft.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

5 minutes ago, krunk said:

No I think we need to add some youthful speed/power.  Gore is 34 although I dont mind having him back as a piece.

Turbin. Todman. Maybe Ferguson improved. And also *late round pick

[Andrew Luck fan club]

2 minutes ago, MPStack said:

The Colts can go in several directions via FA and the draft. With that being said, they are still at least two seasons away from being any sort of contender, which I stated before last year's draft.

Yeah I'm waiting to do a mock draft until FA. And I think with a great offseason this team could be a contender. I think that's realistic. 

[MPStack]

4 minutes ago, 12to13 said:

Yeah I'm waiting to do a mock draft until FA. And I think with a great offseason this team could be a contender. I think that's realistic. 

 

Grigs with have to hit on just everything in FA and the draft for this team to make a run in the playoffs next year. I`m mildly optimistic, but meh on the coaching!

[Andrew Luck fan club]

25 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Grigs with have to hit on just everything in FA and the draft for this team to make a run in the playoffs next year. I`m mildly optimistic, but meh on the coaching!

Yuup Pagano will have to have a great year too. But maybe he will if there is a revamped defense. 

[richard pallo]

Another interesting fact I just read.  The Colts have drafted three RB's in the 1st. round since 1999: James, Addai, and Donald Brown.  Every other RB taken has been 5th rd. or later.  I guess if the modern theory is you can always find a RB in the later rounds it hasn't t worked for us yet.  I would rather not take a chance again and get it done with the 1st. pick if he's there.  Just my opinion of course. 

[NewColtsFan]

6 hours ago, 12to13 said:

Bowen: Dalvin Cook is a tremendous talent. I think he has a chance to be special. But, like I say in every mailbag, a running back in Round One is not the route I would take. Defense. Defense. Defense. That's the path I would go down in the very early rounds. You can find a middle-round running back who can make an impact. Of the NFL's top 10 runners this past season, only 1 was a former first-round pick. You can wait on a running back.

 

I'd like to start by saying I agree with you.     And I'm on record as wanting to target our RB with our first of two picks in the 4th round.

 

That said.....

 

This IS another argument FOR taking a RB in the first round.       And Dallas is the prime example.

 

Three years ago when DeMarco Murray helped carry the Cowboys to a 12-4 record,  Dallas' defense was on the field 12 FEWER PLAYS than the year before.      That took the pressure off Dallas.

 

The year after that Murray was gone and Darren McFadden replaced him.     McFadden had a surprisingly good year....      more than 1,000 yards.       But it wasn't enough.      The Cowboys defense was back on the field for far too many plays.

 

The brought in Elliott and things returned to how they were in 2014 with Murray.     Cowboys offense ran far more plays and kept the ball which kept their poor defense off the field.

 

It has now worked twice with the right back.     It didn't work with McFadden despite him having a good year.

 

But it HAS worked out twice,  so you have to give them credit......

 

[Andrew Luck fan club]

16 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'd like to start by saying I agree with you.     And I'm on record as wanting to target our RB with our first of two picks in the 4th round.

 

That said.....

 

This IS another argument FOR taking a RB in the first round.       And Dallas is the prime example.

 

Three years ago when DeMarco Murray helped carry the Cowboys to a 12-4 record,  Dallas' defense was on the field 12 FEWER PLAYS than the year before.      That took the pressure off Dallas.

 

The year after that Murray was gone and Darren McFadden replaced him.     McFadden had a surprisingly good year....      more than 1,000 yards.       But it wasn't enough.      The Cowboys defense was back on the field for far too many plays.

 

The brought in Elliott and things returned to how they were in 2014 with Murray.     Cowboys offense ran far more plays and kept the ball which kept their poor defense off the field.

 

It has now worked twice with the right back.     It didn't work with McFadden despite him having a good year.

 

But it HAS worked out twice,  so you have to give them credit......

 

Okay sure they have my credit. They still had a better defense than the colts when they selected Elliot. 

If the Colts defense was just average, I'd be on board with cook or fournette, but it's not even average it's terrible. Rb in the 1st is a luxury pick and that's my point.

[OffensivelyPC]

7 hours ago, stitches said:

I'm going to do a small project with all RB draft picks in the last 5 years. Any ideas about how to measure success for those picks? Is it total yards? Yards per season? Yards/carry? Total TDs? TDs per season? Pro-Bowls?

no. Of seasons

Total games

Avh. Per season touches rush/rec/total

Yards per season rush/rec/total

Avg Tds per season rush/rec/total

Total times ranked in top 10 in yards and/or TDs

 

 

[stitches]

Just now, OffensivelyPC said:

no. Of seasons

Total games

Avh. Per season touches rush/rec/total

Yards per season rush/rec/total

Avg Tds per season rush/rec/total

Total times ranked in top 10 in yards and/or TDs

 

 

I already extracted some info and I'm planning to post it soon. It's not exactly what you asked for(I didn't include reception yards and reception tds), but it works for now.

[BOTT]

3 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Another interesting fact I just read.  The Colts have drafted three RB's in the 1st. round since 1999: James, Addai, and Donald Brown.  Every other RB taken has been 5th rd. or later.  I guess if the modern theory is you can always find a RB in the later rounds it hasn't t worked for us yet.  I would rather not take a chance again and get it done with the 1st. pick if he's there.  Just my opinion of course. 

Taking running backs in the first round is far from a guarantee.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4gi2e3/every_rb_drafted_in_the_first_round_since_2000/

 

[stitches]

25 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Taking running backs in the first round is far from a guarantee.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4gi2e3/every_rb_drafted_in_the_first_round_since_2000/

 

 

42 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

no. Of seasons

Total games

Avh. Per season touches rush/rec/total

Yards per season rush/rec/total

Avg Tds per season rush/rec/total

Total times ranked in top 10 in yards and/or TDs

 

 

For what it's worth - here's my cursory examination of the production of RBs by round(for the last 6 years):

 

[Andrew Luck fan club]

21 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

For what it's worth - here's my cursory examination of the production of RBs by round(for the last 6 years):

 

Stitches I'm not trying to say taking a RB in the 1st is dumb or anything, I'm just saying this year the Colts should invest on defense. 

[stitches]

1 minute ago, 12to13 said:

Stitches I'm not trying to say taking a RB in the 1st is dumb or anything, I'm just saying this year the Colts should invest on defense. 

That's a perfectly reasonable stance to hold and I'm pretty much with you there. I would prefer if we don't draft a RB in the first or even in the second(unless some of the big ones drops to us in the second). We need serious help on D.

[BOTT]

29 minutes ago, 12to13 said:

Stitches I'm not trying to say taking a RB in the 1st is dumb or anything, I'm just saying this year the Colts should invest on defense. 

I think it's dumb

[Andrew Luck fan club]

4 minutes ago, BOTT said:

I think it's dumb

I sure wouldn't do it haha.

[Tracy Denton]

I think with this draft being deep with RB and Defense, The Colts can stick to taking BPA and still hit a need. As I have said in other threads, I don't really care what round we take a player as long as they are good players.

[MPStack]

I don`t want to see the Colts go RB in the 1st Rd, but I`m not on board with folks who think you can easily find a RB in the late rounds. That`s just wishful thinking IMO. I seriously doubt scouts know their striking lightning in a bottle with a 6th Rd. pick, nor do they think this 6th Rd. pick is going to be our starter RB as a rookie. I hope the Colts go RB no later than the 3rd. Going into next season with a 34 old F. Gore, probably amounts to the 65 yards or so a game, which puts to much on Luck to move the ball. Just my 2 cents! 

[Andrew Luck fan club]

1 hour ago, MPStack said:

I don`t want to see the Colts go RB in the 1st Rd, but I`m not on board with folks who think you can easily find a RB in the late rounds. That`s just wishful thinking IMO. I seriously doubt scouts know their striking lightning in a bottle with a 6th Rd. pick, nor do they think this 6th Rd. pick is going to be our starter RB as a rookie. I hope the Colts go RB no later than the 3rd. Going into next season with a 34 old F. Gore, probably amounts to the 65 yards or so a game, which puts to much on Luck to move the ball. Just my 2 cents! 

I agree with all of this. Except I'm not sure who said you can easily find a RB in late rounds, it's obviously not easy. But when your defense is in literal shambles, and it's a deep rb class, it's smarter imo to go defense in the early rounds and pick up a rb to split reps with gore/turbin in the 4th maybe 3rd.