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1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It is all a crapshoot in the NFL Draft. Being lucky is a huge key. Mahomes went 13-19 as a college starter and was erratic and inconsistent. He wasn't even projected to go in round 1 by many. I will guarantee you not 1 person in here or anyone said before that draft, Mahomes would be as great as a Brady or Manning. Chiefs took a chance and lucked out, just like the Pats taking Brady in Round 6, and Purdy gets picked last. Lynch makes all these blunders at picking QB's, then just says, what the hell, lets take Purdy, he will get us to a SB and I know it - yeah right, and I have swamp land I want to sell someone for 1 million dollars homer simpson GIF- unreal luck!


Luck is a combination of how well the player absorbs coaching and how well the team is constructed. There always needs to be an element of scouting that tells you how well the players process information and their work ethic.

 

However, Mahomes, Brady and Purdy all went to playoff teams early in their career, explaining their faster success. It’s all about where you are drafted and supporting cast around you that determines success. If you’re talented, you can knock it out of the park with a good cast. Guys like Peyton and Luck went to much worse teams as a whole than compared to the above 3, so teams’ success depends on those factors.
 

Earlier without the rookie salary cap, high draft picks cost more unlike now where the Bengals could throw money at FAs during Burrow’s rookie contract and similarly I expect the Texans to do the same with Stroud.

 

So while no one predicted Mahomes to be as good, if you have a HOF coach and an excellent supporting cast, team success is more predictable. Btw, Mahomes was brought in by the Bears for a visit and lots of folks did peg him as a first rounder, just weren’t sure where. They (draft analysts) had him behind Trubisky and Watson but he went before Watson. 
 

Mahomes sure is glad he didn’t go to Da Bears. :) 

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16 minutes ago, chad72 said:


Luck is a combination of how well the player absorbs coaching and how well the team is constructed. There always needs to be an element of scouting that tells you how well the players process information and their work ethic.

 

However, Mahomes, Brady and Purdy all went to playoff teams early in their career, explaining their faster success. It’s all about where you are drafted and supporting cast around you that determines success. If you’re talented, you can knock it out of the park with a good cast. Guys like Peyton and Luck went to much worse teams as a whole than compared to the above 3, so teams’ success depends on those factors.
 

Earlier without the rookie salary cap, high draft picks cost more unlike now where the Bengals could throw money at FAs during Burrow’s rookie contract and similarly I expect the Texans to do the same with Stroud.

 

So while no one predicted Mahomes to be as good, if you have a HOF coach and an excellent supporting cast, team success is more predictable. Btw, Mahomes was brought in by the Bears for a visit and lots of folks did peg him as a first rounder, just weren’t sure where. They (draft analysts) had him behind Trubisky and Watson but he went before Watson. 
 

Mahomes sure is glad he didn’t go to Da Bears. :) 

Imagine had Mahomes been drafted by the Bears or Brady by the Browns when he came out. Guys like Luck and (Burrow = years 2 and 3) took teams that stunk and succeeded. Burrow when healthy, is my #2 QB over Lamar and Allen. Burrow is like Luck and can take a stinky team from 2-14 to a 10-6. 

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1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It is all a crapshoot in the NFL Draft. Being lucky is a huge key. Mahomes went 13-19 as a college starter and was erratic and inconsistent. He wasn't even projected to go in round 1 by many. I will guarantee you not 1 person in here or anyone said before that draft, Mahomes would be as great as a Brady or Manning. Chiefs took a chance and lucked out, just like the Pats taking Brady in Round 6, and Purdy gets picked last. Lynch makes all these blunders at picking QB's, then just says, what the hell, lets take Purdy, he will get us to a SB and I know it - yeah right, and I have swamp land I want to sell someone for 1 million dollars homer simpson GIF- unreal luck!

What I said was mostly about all other positions but when it comes to QBs, it gets much more complicated.

 

By what I said, AR shouldn't have been picked at #4, but that's how QB evaluations and projections vary.

 

I'd say, the key to unlock QBs like Mahomes, Purdy or Richardson is the private workouts and interviews that teams get to have up close with these prospects. Someone like Richardson had very little college experience and production, but if the team feels he understands the concepts, and could read the defenses before and after the snap and make great judgements and execution in the face of pressure, then sky is the limit for unlocking their potential.

 

Again, it's not much about measurements in that case too, but what's in between their ears. And, as a fan, we have zero information to know these prospects up close to project but teams with people who have excellent cognition can realize what they could become. And, after drafting, the coaching makes a lot of difference too.

 

It's not much of a crapshoot if the teams really see what these QB prospects excel at and how their coaches could develop them. It's not a coincidence that Mahomes and Purdy got to work with excellent offensive minded coaches with explosive offenses! Same is what one could hope with Richardson and Steichen. 

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2 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

What I said was mostly about all other positions but when it comes to QBs, it gets much more complicated.

 

By what I said, AR shouldn't have been picked at #4, but that's how QB evaluations and projections vary.

 

I'd say, the key to unlock QBs like Mahomes, Purdy or Richardson is the private workouts and interviews that teams get to have up close with these prospects. Someone like Richardson had very little college experience and production, but if the team feels he understands the concepts, and could read the defenses before and after the snap and make great judgements and execution in the face of pressure, then sky is the limit for unlocking their potential.

 

Again, it's not much about measurements in that case too, but what's in between their ears. And, as a fan, we have zero information to know these prospects up close to project but teams with people who have excellent cognition can realize what they could become. And, after drafting, the coaching makes a lot of difference too.

 

It's not much of a crapshoot if the teams really see what these QB prospects excel at and how their coaches could develop them. It's not a coincidence that Mahomes and Purdy got to work with excellent offensive minded coaches with explosive offenses! Same is what one could hope with Richardson and Steichen. 

Our future looks bright. At least I think so. AR + Shane + Taylor + Pittman + Downs + a good O.Line. That is a nice start :thmup:

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1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Imagine had Mahomes been drafted by the Bears or Brady by the Browns when he came out. Guys like Luck and (Burrow = years 2 and 3) took teams that stunk and succeeded. Burrow when healthy, is my #2 QB over Lamar and Allen. Burrow is like Luck and can take a stinky team from 2-14 to a 10-6. 

 

Unlike Grigson, the Bengals' GM FA moves were of stellar quality under Burrow's rookie contract that it got them to the SB in Year 2 of Burrow starting. That is where the GM shines, after pairing the QB with the right coach.

 

I thought Irsay screwed the pooch by handing over Luck to an inexperienced GM, who had not even worked closely with a previous GM. Ozzie Newsome did not step down from Ravens till 2018. I can understand Eric DeCosta, next in line with Ozzie's retirement looming, refusing the Colts' GM job when Ballard was hired.

 

But when Grigson was hired in 2012, he would have been a slam dunk hire and would have taken the Colts GM job having been Director of Player Personnel and Assistant GM from 2012 onwards to Ozzie (maybe they gave the promotion to dissuade him from leaving the Ravens then knowing Colts GM job is vacant but still GM over Assistant GM, I think he would have bolted). Irsay gave a Ferrari to a guy that had dreamed of driving one but had been mainly dealing with Accords and Camrys till that point. Well, it is water under the bridge but it all starts at the top, it goes to show you.

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For The Now, I’ve got my eyes on the DT and CB groups.  Ballard likes these guys to be very athletic, and if some of these 1st round CB prospects prove the athleticism we saw on tape and/or at the SB (Mitchell, Arnold, DeJean), he won’t be able to resist in the 1st.  15 looks like a CB sweet spot.

 

DT depth is a huge immediate need, IMO.  I know Adebawore was always a project, but he hardly showed much of anything last year.  Taven Bryan was rated poorly by pff, and Eric Johnson’s pff was one of the worst I’ve ever seen (though Adebawore’s was even lower!).  I’m gonna be looking at guys like Ruke Orhorhoro, Kris Jenkins, and DeWayne Carter.   If any of these guys end up with 9.5 RAS scores or something, then Ballard will think about it in Round 2 IMHO.  Ruke has a scouting report that sounds a lot like Adebawore’s coming out of college.

 

For the future, I’m thinking OL and LB.  OL depth would actually serve us well also in The Now.  There seem to be some previously late-round guys who are rising on the OL - Dominick Puni, Mason McCormick, Javion Cohen, Delmar Glaze.  And some names that were always in the conversation - Zach Frazier, Christian Haynes, Zack Zinter, Sedrick Van Pran - looking forward to how they all wash out at the combine and pro days.

 

LB - I’m locked into a few draft crushes right now - James Williams, Junior Colson, and Tyrice Knight.  But, if someone comes out of the combine with long arms and runs and jumps well, I would have to go straight to his tape.  I’d love to add a LB, since Speed and Franklin are FAs after next year, and we should have a cheap draftee ready to step in for one of them…

 

 

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5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It is all a crapshoot in the NFL Draft. Being lucky is a huge key. Mahomes went 13-19 as a college starter and was erratic and inconsistent. He wasn't even projected to go in round 1 by many. I will guarantee you not 1 person in here or anyone said before that draft, Mahomes would be as great as a Brady or Manning. Chiefs took a chance and lucked out, just like the Pats taking Brady in Round 6, and Purdy gets picked last. Lynch makes all these blunders at picking QB's, then just says, what the hell, lets take Purdy, he will get us to a SB and I know it - yeah right, and I have swamp land I want to sell someone for 1 million dollars homer simpson GIF- unreal luck!

Sorry, but calling the NFL Draft a crapshoot is an insult to NFL GMs, the scouts, and the Coaches who put work into this process. No team bats 1.000 in the draft obviously, but some teams are much better at hitting in the draft than others. As much as I bash Ballard, he has a good system where he has built the Colts around the NFL Draft. That's the one thing he is elite on. The elite teams all hit in the draft to some extent as you have to keep cheap talent flowing through the team every year so you can stay under the cap while paying your players and remain competitive.

 

I had Mahomes as the top QB in the 2017 class. Didn't have him as good as he was, but I had him ranked over Trubisky and Watson for the same reasons I had Josh Allen as the top QB in the 2018 class and even mocked him at 5 to the Broncos in the Gavin Mock Draft. I go for the upside running modern QBs. I was two years early on this. 

 

Purdy I thought was draftable, never knew he'd be that good, but I did have him as a long-term backup in the NFL. I thought he'd go 5th or 6th round and he fell to Mr Irrelevant. Yeah, Lynch got bailed out by that pick lol. However, he was nearly perfect otherwise, so just for a situation like that to happen where he allowed himself to waste 3 first round picks and survive with a 7th round QB hit is a testament to how well he's built that team through the draft, FA, and trades. 

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5 hours ago, Yoshinator said:

Sorry, but calling the NFL Draft a crapshoot is an insult to NFL GMs, the scouts, and the Coaches who put work into this process. No team bats 1.000 in the draft obviously, but some teams are much better at hitting in the draft than others. As much as I bash Ballard, he has a good system where he has built the Colts around the NFL Draft. That's the one thing he is elite on. The elite teams all hit in the draft to some extent as you have to keep cheap talent flowing through the team every year so you can stay under the cap while paying your players and remain competitive.

 

I had Mahomes as the top QB in the 2017 class. Didn't have him as good as he was, but I had him ranked over Trubisky and Watson for the same reasons I had Josh Allen as the top QB in the 2018 class and even mocked him at 5 to the Broncos in the Gavin Mock Draft. I go for the upside running modern QBs. I was two years early on this. 

 

Purdy I thought was draftable, never knew he'd be that good, but I did have him as a long-term backup in the NFL. I thought he'd go 5th or 6th round and he fell to Mr Irrelevant. Yeah, Lynch got bailed out by that pick lol. However, he was nearly perfect otherwise, so just for a situation like that to happen where he allowed himself to waste 3 first round picks and survive with a 7th round QB hit is a testament to how well he's built that team through the draft, FA, and trades. 

You may be the only one that had Mahomes rated over Watson because Kiper, ESPN, NFL Network, CBS Sports, all had Watson as the best clear-cut best QB coming out that season. I did as well and Watson was very good so that didn't make anyone wrong, including myself. I am not really insulting any GM but when you select a QB that isn't in the Top 5 and he turns out as possibly the GOAT or even being good, that is damn lucky.  

 

Bears did what they always do, drafting Trubisky and everyone knew that had common sense, he would stink.

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1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

You may be the only one that had Mahomes rated over Watson because Kiper, ESPN, NFL Network, CBS Sports, all had Watson as the best clear-cut best QB coming out that season. I did as well and Watson was very good so that didn't make anyone wrong, including myself. I am not really insulting any GM but when you select a QB that isn't in the Top 5 and he turns out as possibly the GOAT or even being good, that is damn lucky.  

 

Bears did what they always do, drafting Trubisky and everyone knew that had common sense, he would stink.


Your response was fine.  Right up to the last comment about the Bears and Trubisky.   Oh, it looks good today, but you claimed back then everyone knew.  That’s false.   Sorry. 

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1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:


Your response was fine.  Right up to the last comment about the Bears and Trubisky.   Oh, it looks good today, but you claimed back then everyone knew.  That’s false.   Sorry. 

Fair enough but I didn't think Trubisky would be any good and I was wondering what the hell Bears were thinking when they took him? I thought they would take Watson.

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12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


Your response was fine.  Right up to the last comment about the Bears and Trubisky.   Oh, it looks good today, but you claimed back then everyone knew.  That’s false.   Sorry. 

 

There were many who did not believe he would succeed. I know that many of the fans that post on the Vikings site that I follow did not think he would do well. Most thought Watson may be best. One guy was very high on Mahomes. He thought Mahomes would be the best. I don't recall any fan who thought Trubisky would be the best of the three.

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10 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

There were many who did not believe he would succeed. I know that many of the fans that post on the Vikings site that I follow did not think he would do well. Most thought Watson may be best. One guy was very high on Mahomes. He thought Mahomes would be the best. I don't recall any fan who thought Trubisky would be the best of the three.

I didn't either. Thanks for having my back and Watson was very good with Houston. He won the Division a few times and was in the MVP running 1 year.

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12 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Fair enough but I didn't think Trubisky would be any good and I was wondering what the hell Bears were thinking when they took him? I thought they would take Watson.


To be clear….   I was NOT a Trubisky fan.  He only started one season for North Carolina.  I think he only started 13 games (like AR).   His one year was very good, but still he had so little experience.   
 

But I don’t remember any outrage over Chicago taking Trubisky over Watson or Mahomes.    Maybe there was and I’m misremembering.  
 

FWIW:  There are video’s on YouTube about how much KC LOVED Mahomes.  But they didn’t want to trade up to 2.  So they hoped he’d fall to 10, which he did, and KC traded two 1’s and a 3 to move up and take him.  
 

KC thought Mahomes was not only the best QB in that class, they thought he was one of the best QB prospects they’d ever seen.  Their view was Texas Tech had a terrible defense and so Mahomes played every game knowing he had to score a minimum OF 35 points to win, and in some cases 45-50 points.  KC thought he was brilliant.   Props to them, they got it right.  
 

Now, I should look for videos about the Bears drafting Trubisky.  Try to gage reaction back in 2017 and see what the reaction was in real time.  Interesting stuff on YouTube. 

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27 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

There were many who did not believe he would succeed. I know that many of the fans that post on the Vikings site that I follow did not think he would do well. Most thought Watson may be best. One guy was very high on Mahomes. He thought Mahomes would be the best. I don't recall any fan who thought Trubisky would be the best of the three.


Perhaps I should’ve been more clear.  
 

When I say there was no negative reaction back then, I’m not talking about the fan base.  I’m talking about the media that covers the NFL — people in the know.  
 

Rare is the time I care about what fans think.   I just don’t.   Fans are not informed enough.  But media-wise, I don’t recall any media reaction expressing shock or surprise that Chicago took Trubisky over the other two.  
 

NOTE:  please see my post to 2006CBE about my view of Trubisky.  I was not a big fan of his, but I also wasn’t a hater.   So I’m not defending him. 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:


To be clear….   I was NOT a Trubisky fan.  He only started one season for North Carolina.  I think he only started 13 games (like AR).   His one year was very good, but still he had so little experience.   


You brought up a good point about number of years starting in college.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/1st-year-starters
 

Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Mark Sanchez, Mitch Trubisky, now AR

 

These are all 1 year starters in college. 
 

Josh Allen, Mahomes, Watson, Lamar, Herbert, even Carson Wentz (the injury changed everything for him), Burrow, Stroud 2 or more years of starting in college. 

 

It takes a lot to get a 1 year starter ready for the next level. 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Rare is the time I care about what fans think.   I just don’t.   Fans are not informed enough.  But media-wise, I don’t recall any media reaction expressing shock or surprise that Chicago took Trubisky over the other two.  

 

In this case, fans were clearly more informed than the media. I know I did not understand how the Bears could give up so much to move up just one spot for someone who seemed so mediocre.

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23 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

In this case, fans were clearly more informed than the media. I know I did not understand how the Bears could give up so much to move up just one spot for someone who seemed so mediocre.


Off the top of my head, the Bears gave up two 3’s and a 4.   Might’ve been one 3, and two 4’s.   The points are the difference at the top of the draft when a team is moving up from 3 to 2.  
 

As for everything else, we’ll just agree to disagree.  

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12 hours ago, Archer said:

DT depth is a huge immediate need, IMO.  I know Adebawore was always a project, but he hardly showed much of anything last year.  Taven Bryan was rated poorly by pff, and Eric Johnson’s pff was one of the worst I’ve ever seen (though Adebawore’s was even lower!).  I’m gonna be looking at guys like Ruke Orhorhoro, Kris Jenkins, and DeWayne Carter.   If any of these guys end up with 9.5 RAS scores or something, then Ballard will think about it in Round 2 IMHO.  Ruke has a scouting report that sounds a lot like Adebawore’s coming out of college.

Adebawore is fast.  Still wonder if he may be better suited to drop 25 pounds and move to linebacker (SLB).  Really not a big shocker to see defensive lineman struggle within years 1-2 before they do well but not often the case. 

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On 2/25/2024 at 4:07 PM, Solid84 said:

By far the highest I've seen Austin Booker ranked. Don't think I've seen him above 3rd round until now.

Beebe I've not seen above 2nd round.

Corley I've not seen above 3rd round I believe.

Roman Wilson is also a little high I feel while DeJean is maybe a little low.

I've seen Cade Stover go in the 4th several times.

 

There are several more that are head scratchers to me.

 

I think I'll be following all positions, but especially WR, TE and Dlinemen.

Edge Austin Booker (Kansas) – Was the most productive pass-rushers this season earning an 83.6 pass-rush grade.  25 total pressures and 6 sacks with a 16.6% pass-rush win rate.  Had him with a Round 2 grade for a while now.

 

OL Cooper Beebe (Kansas State) – Jack of all trades OL No matter where Cooper Beebe lines up, he produces elite play. At right tackle in 2020, he was a PFF honorable mention All-Big 12 honoree. As a left tackle in 2021, he was named first-team All-Big 12. In 2022 at left guard, Beebe was a second-team All-American.  Beebe's 94.0 pass-blocking grade over the past two seasons led all offensive linemen in college football. During that span, he didn’t allow a sack on 770 pass-blocking snaps.  Beebe is the only FBS guard who ranks in the top five in both PB (4th) and RB (2nd).  He still hasn’t allowed a sack since the 2020 season. 2023 earned college football midseason all-America First Team.  After 9 weeks leads all offensive guards with an overall 83.9 PFF grade who is top 3 in both pass-blocking (3rd) and run-blocking (2nd).  Beebe hasn’t allowed a sack since 2020.  To me got that borderline Round 1-2 grade.   Beebe might sneak late into Round 1 much like Cole Strange (Patriots) in 2022. 

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2024 Combine Watchlist

 

·         OC Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) – Not many centers grade out year after year that match Ryan Kelly and JPJ would be an ideal replacement next season.

·         RG Christian Haynes (UConn) – top priority is to protect AR and have a run game

·         OL Cooper Beebe - top priority is to protect AR and have a run game

·         OL Hunter Nourzad (PSU) – Developmental lineman needs coaching could become a starter

·         LG Trevor Keegan (Michigan) – 2023 Team captain, All-Big Ten (2021-2023).  Developmental traits – solid backup to Nelson

·         SWR Malik Washington (Virginia) – late rounds in draft seem to be solid for a SWR backups.  See also (McCaffrey, Jackson, Williams).  Pittman walks draft a top WR? Drafting backup WR3-4 early behind Pittman, Pierce, and Downs?  FA options solid backups?

·         SWR Luke McCaffrey (Rice) – solid slot backup option

·         SWR Jha’Quan Jackson (Tulane) – bonus as a return specialist while adding value backup in the slot.

·         SWR Isaiah Williams (Illinois) – late round depth with some flexibility.  Wish he was taller.

·         WR Devontez Walker (UNC)

·         RB Trey Benson (Florida State) – In 2022 he was a dominate tackle-breaker.  His 51% forced missed tackle rate led the country but also set the PFF College record.  He forced 79 missed tackles on the year.  Risk/Reward Dec. 1, 2020, he tore his ACL, MCL, lateral meniscus, medial meniscus and his gracilis tendon (hamstring).  Reminds me of Tyjae Spears that was drafted by the Titans last year in Round 3 and would be a good pairing with JT.  Very similar to Marlon Mack.  Good chance to be drafted in Round 2.  Solid backup option if we let Moss walk.

·         TE Erick All (Iowa) – pending medicals chance TE3.

·         Edge Mohamed Kamara (Colorado St) – reminds me of YaYa Diaby taken in Round 3 but lacks the athleticism score.

·         Edge Xavier Thomas (Clemson)

·         NT Tyler Davis – potential to replace Grover Stewart with better NFL Combine grades than Stewart had posted.

·         MLB Junior Colson (Michigan) – already my consensus Round 2 draft pick who might have elevated his draft stock to Round 1

·         LB Payton Wilson (NC St) – another top linebacker that the Colts should be considering

·         LB Jordan Magee (Temple) – late round tangibles as a backup+

·         SS Kitan Oladapo (Oregon St)

·         SS Jaden Hicks (Washington State)

 

Want my early 2025 NFL Draft Class:

  • LCB Will Johnson (Michigan) 
  • RG Tate Ratledge (Georgia) 
  • WR-X/PR Tory Horton (Colorado State) - 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Third Team. 70% blocking.  
  • Edge Princely Umanmielen (Florida) junior- 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Second Team.  Ideal fit for the Colts
  • CB Malaki Starks (Georgia) - 2023 college football midseason all-America First Team.  Not an ideal fit for the Colts as a Man/Press rather than zone.
  • MLB/WLB Harold Perkins Jr. (LSU) - Top LB in the class. Quick to drop into zone and covers enough ground to be Tampa-2 MIKE.  Better suited as a WLB maximize range/speed.
  • FS Rod Moore (Michigan) - Better stats than Kamren Kinchens and projects to be stronger in zone coverage.  Must stop being grabby and prone to flags.
  • NT 0/3-tech IDL Dontay Corleone (Cincy) - Grover Stewart replacement
  • WR-X Antwane Wells Jr (SC) 
  • LG Donovan Jackson (OSU) – Decent LG option in 2025.  Nelson’s contract expires end of 2026 where he will be 30.  
  • RB Jo’Quavious Marks (Miss. St) – 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Honorable Mention.  Entered transfer portal commits to USC.  See how he does in the Big-10 but another of my favorites to watch next season. 
  • Edge Ashton Gillotte (Louisville) - 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Third Team.  Named All-ACC-First Team.  
  • RT Ajani Cornelius (Oregon) - 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Third Team.  Best in zone-blocking system.    Draft Powers-Johnson and have a reunion and learn behind Smith?
  • Edge Khris Bogle (MSU) 
  • WR-X Ricky White (UNLV) - His 3.77 yards per route run is 3rd among all receivers in the nation.  Major threat in the red zone. Tracks bell well making contested catches but lacks separation and suddenness as a route runner.  
  • MLB Jacob Dobbs (Holy Cross) 
  • RG Miles Frazier (LSU) 
  • TE/WR Oronde Gadsden II (Syracuse) – Tweener WR/TE at 6’5” and 223 pounds but excellent speed, good hands along with good blocking skills. 
  • SCB-FS Sebastian Castro (Iowa) – hybrid LB/SAF role. Team captain as a junior and senior. Returning to Iowa in 2024.  Probably the best SAF outside of Rod Moore (Michigan).    
  • TE Bryson Nesbit (UNC) – poor blocking and kind of reminds me of Will Mallory.  Can be difficult to cover and easily get separation.  Good catch-and-run threat with good running vision with great top speed.
  • SWR Xavier Restrepo Miami (FL) junior - 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Honorable Mention.  
  • SWR-H Caullin Lacy (South Alabama) - 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Third Team.  
  • WLB Danny Stutsman (Oklahoma) - Stutsman brings eye-popping closing speed, and his motor never cools.  2023 earned college football midseason all-America Second Team.
  • WR-X Will Sheppard (Vanderbuilt) - Sheppard at one point led the country in contested catches in 2023. 
  • LB Barrett Carter (Clemson) - see which version of Carter emerges in 2025.  Hopefully Carter can play like his 2022 version.
  • NT Howard Cross III (ND) - 2023 midseason all-America First Team.  For comparison see NT Michael Pierce (Ravens) 6’0 but 355 pounds does well at 6’ tall, but the Ravens does use a 3-4 base.  NT DJ Jones (Broncos) is another 6’” 305 pound player on a 3-4 base.  Grady Jarrett (Falcons) another solid comparison where the Falcons also use a 3-4 base. 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, chad72 said:


 

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/1st-year-starters
 

Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Mark Sanchez, Mitch Trubisky, now AR

 

These are all 1 year starters in college. 

So, only 1-year starters in college that have looked okay or better in NFL as QB are those who have crazy athleticism to be a dual threat!

 

No pure pocket passers in that list.

 

Mark Sanchez did okay though to an extent, having some success. 

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7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


To be clear….   I was NOT a Trubisky fan.  He only started one season for North Carolina.  I think he only started 13 games (like AR).   His one year was very good, but still he had so little experience.   
 

But I don’t remember any outrage over Chicago taking Trubisky over Watson or Mahomes.    Maybe there was and I’m misremembering.  
 

FWIW:  There are video’s on YouTube about how much KC LOVED Mahomes.  But they didn’t want to trade up to 2.  So they hoped he’d fall to 10, which he did, and KC traded two 1’s and a 3 to move up and take him.  
 

KC thought Mahomes was not only the best QB in that class, they thought he was one of the best QB prospects they’d ever seen.  Their view was Texas Tech had a terrible defense and so Mahomes played every game knowing he had to score a minimum OF 35 points to win, and in some cases 45-50 points.  KC thought he was brilliant.   Props to them, they got it right.  
 

Now, I should look for videos about the Bears drafting Trubisky.  Try to gage reaction back in 2017 and see what the reaction was in real time.  Interesting stuff on YouTube. 

Fair enough once again, I just don't recall anyone in Chicago jumping for joy that they drafted Trubisky. I have a buddy who's been a Bear fan since 1985, he wanted Watson and was pee'd they took Trubisky. I seen a lot of negative back lash toward Trubisky when he got drafted so on my end it isn't even hindsight. I thought Watson was the best QB of that draft. Turns out, I was even wrong, it was Pat. Watson wasn't a bum at least though on my end of thinking and had a few very good years with Houston.

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4 hours ago, OhioColt said:

Edge Austin Booker (Kansas) – Was the most productive pass-rushers this season earning an 83.6 pass-rush grade.  25 total pressures and 6 sacks with a 16.6% pass-rush win rate.  Had him with a Round 2 grade for a while now.

 

OL Cooper Beebe (Kansas State) – Jack of all trades OL No matter where Cooper Beebe lines up, he produces elite play. At right tackle in 2020, he was a PFF honorable mention All-Big 12 honoree. As a left tackle in 2021, he was named first-team All-Big 12. In 2022 at left guard, Beebe was a second-team All-American.  Beebe's 94.0 pass-blocking grade over the past two seasons led all offensive linemen in college football. During that span, he didn’t allow a sack on 770 pass-blocking snaps.  Beebe is the only FBS guard who ranks in the top five in both PB (4th) and RB (2nd).  He still hasn’t allowed a sack since the 2020 season. 2023 earned college football midseason all-America First Team.  After 9 weeks leads all offensive guards with an overall 83.9 PFF grade who is top 3 in both pass-blocking (3rd) and run-blocking (2nd).  Beebe hasn’t allowed a sack since 2020.  To me got that borderline Round 1-2 grade.   Beebe might sneak late into Round 1 much like Cole Strange (Patriots) in 2022. 

One small side rant... 

 

I'm not fond of this "mid-season" All America first team and such... Makes me question What happened after full season!?  :D

 

As in itself, at least 200 out of 400 prospects vying for a draft slot was in some kind of Wannabe Kitty Cat Mountain Lion Conference Third Team, and now we have got "Mid-season", "Quarter-Season", so on... :nutz:

 

And, what's the point of noting down someone's PFF grade after 9 weeks or last 6 weeks or such? It's like cherry picking when it looks good for a player...

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4 hours ago, OhioColt said:

Edge Austin Booker (Kansas) – Was the most productive pass-rushers this season earning an 83.6 pass-rush grade.  25 total pressures and 6 sacks with a 16.6% pass-rush win rate.  Had him with a Round 2 grade for a while now.

Depends entirely on which site you're using for facts. Bralen Trice had the most pressures by far (80) according to PFF with Booker being 56th with 38 pressures.

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6 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

So, only 1-year starters in college that have looked okay or better in NFL as QB are those who have crazy athleticism to be a dual threat!

 

No pure pocket passers in that list.

 

Mark Sanchez did okay though to an extent, having some success. 

 

That is why I see both sides of the spectrum when folks wonder if AR will make the transition successfully. A lot is riding on Steichen's work with AR. I am sure Ballard understood the ramifications of getting a 1 year starter too.

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39 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

That is why I see both sides of the spectrum when folks wonder if AR will make the transition successfully. A lot is riding on Steichen's work with AR. I am sure Ballard understood the ramifications of getting a 1 year starter too.

Richardson surely took a big gamble coming into NFL, trying to follow the lead of Newton and Murray, and so far it worked.

 

I guess last year's QB class played into his decision of coming out, and the upcoming year's!

 

Imagine Richardson competing with the likes of Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix and others... He'd would have to have a very strong year in 2023 without injuries to be a first round draft pick this year. 

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9 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Richardson surely took a big gamble coming into NFL, trying to follow the lead of Newton and Murray, and so far it worked.

 

I guess last year's QB class played into his decision of coming out, and the upcoming year's!

 

Imagine Richardson competing with the likes of Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix and others... He'd would have to have a very strong year in 2023 without injuries to be a first round draft pick this year. 

 

Ultimately, none of it matters if Richardson works out for the Colts. The previous Richardson the Colts got, Trent Richardson, didn't work out so well, so fingers crossed. 😄

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On 2/25/2024 at 4:12 PM, stitches said:

This is the highest I've seen Chop Robinson BTW. 

Cooper Dejean has been receiving lower rankings by numerous national media analysts... I kind of expected him to be top 15-20 pick... but from what I'm seeing by those evaluators... it looks more like he would be lucky to get picked in the 1st... 

The narrative around Dejean has changed from CB to S. Maybe that has something to do with it?

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30 minutes ago, Hark said:

The narrative around Dejean has changed from CB to S. Maybe that has something to do with it?

 

Yep, the safety position has been devalued for a while as not something critical but still integral to a defense with so many teams using nickel and dime formations making the cornerback position even more valuable. 

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2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Yep, the safety position has been devalued for a while as not something critical but still integral to a defense with so many teams using nickel and dime formations making the cornerback position even more valuable. 

With the Colts need for help at safety, especially FS, I think he might be a good fit.

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23 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

One small side rant... 

 

I'm not fond of this "mid-season" All America first team and such... Makes me question What happened after full season!?  :D

 

As in itself, at least 200 out of 400 prospects vying for a draft slot was in some kind of Wannabe Kitty Cat Mountain Lion Conference Third Team, and now we have got "Mid-season", "Quarter-Season", so on... :nutz:

 

And, what's the point of noting down someone's PFF grade after 9 weeks or last 6 weeks or such? It's like cherry picking when it looks good for a player...

Get what you are saying but folks got to remember the sample size is much smaller in college compared to the Pros in half the number of games being played.  Considering scouts and evaluators have to make mid-season decisions after only 4-6 games and relying on same college students to be a future player on your roster for 18 whole games is a much different world.  Never want to count out small school prospects and kids that have heart but lack ideal measurements.  Am looking forward to the Combine but also individual workouts for those not attending.  The Colts always seem to draft someone I have never heard of each year.

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On 2/28/2024 at 12:39 AM, OhioColt said:

Get what you are saying but folks got to remember the sample size is much smaller in college compared to the Pros in half the number of games being played.  Considering scouts and evaluators have to make mid-season decisions after only 4-6 games and relying on same college students to be a future player on your roster for 18 whole games is a much different world.  Never want to count out small school prospects and kids that have heart but lack ideal measurements.  Am looking forward to the Combine but also individual workouts for those not attending.  The Colts always seem to draft someone I have never heard of each year.


“The Colts always seem to draft someone I have never heard of each year.”

 

Ohio, I’m surprised to see you write that.  You’ve been posting deep dives here for years, I’d have thought you know most everyone.   
 

Im curious, can you give any examples?  

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14 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


“The Colts always seem to draft someone I have never heard of each year.”

 

Ohio, I’m surprised to see you write that.  You’ve been posting deep dives here for years, I’d have thought you know most everyone.   
 

Im curious, can you give any examples?  

More truthful saying that certain players were removed from my draft board for one reason, or another is more the reality.  Will say never had TE Kylen Granson documented.  Looking back at his Next Gen Stats from Granson's combine can see why the Colts took him.  Guess can blame it on Covid and the extra amount college kids flooding the draft and/or going UDFAs compared to year's past.  Odds are somebody going to miss tracking.  That's why I am not quitting my night job just yet, but retirement does sound like a great idea. 

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6 minutes ago, OhioColt said:

More truthful saying that certain players were removed from my draft board for one reason, or another is more the reality.  Will say never had TE Kylen Granson documented.  Looking back at his Next Gen Stats from Granson's combine can see why the Colts took him.  Guess can blame it on Covid and the extra amount college kids flooding the draft and/or going UDFAs compared to year's past.  Odds are somebody going to miss tracking.  That's why I am not quitting my night job just yet, but retirement does sound like a great idea. 

I remember Kylen Granson making an appearance on NFL Network before the draft. I thought he'd go later than the 4th round. That's what surprised me about the pick. Not the player himself.

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Had time to look at my recent mock draft post had a good one tonight with some CPU surprising trades offered to me that were too good to pass up.  Also allowed me to look more at a few more Combine players hopefully this week.

 

DL Justin Eboigbe - think moving him to NT to eventually be Stewart's replacement would work

WR Johnny Wilson 

WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint

Edge Solomon Byrd

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