Mock Off-season 2.0

[Caleb3502]

Thought I would do one more mock offseason before free agency begins on March 13 at 4 p.m.  Opening cap space will be after the already completed signings.   

 

Cap Space: $102,447,644

 

Colts Free Agents

 

Unrestricted FAs

Pierre Desir CB - 2 Years/$10 M  

Clayton Geathers SS - 1 Years/$4 M 

Najee Goode OLB

Mark Glowinski G - 3 Years/$18 M ($4.2 M Signing Bonus)

Adam Vinatieri K - 1 Year/$3.875 M 

Ryan Grant WR

Geneo Grissom DE

Ryan Hewitt TE - 1 Year/$1 M 

Margus Hunt DE - 2 Years/$9 M 

J. J. Wilcox SS

Al Woods DT - I don't think we will bring back both him and Hunt, and I think Hunt has more quality football left in him. 

Dontrelle Inman WR - 1 Year/$4.5 M (Fully Guaranteed)

Mike Mitchell FS

Matt Slauson G  - Retired 

J'Marcus Webb OT

 

Restricted FAs

Evan Boehm C - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Matthias Farley SS - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Christopher Milton CB - 1 Year/$2.035 (Original Round Tender)

Corey Moore FS

Chester Rogers WR - 1 Year/2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Ross Travis TE - 1 Year/720 K 

 

Exclusive-Rights FAs

Marcus Johnson WR - 1 Year/$645K 

Luke Rhodes LS - 1 Year/$645K

 

Added Cap spent on Re-Signings: $18,163,903

Remaining Cap Space After Re-Signings: $84,283,741

 

Free Agents

 

WR Adam Humphries - 4 Years/$42 M ($20 M Guaranteed)  Humphries gets a good deal of YAC: 10th most YAC among WRs with 423 yards. Outside of Hilton, the Colts are in the bottom of the league in YAC. He'll be 26 when the season starts, so we can sign him during the prime of his career.  

 

S Landon Collins - 5 Years/$62 M (36 M Guaranteed) 25 years old and is the only S to record 95+ tackles over each of the last 4 seasons.  Even if we re-sign Geathers, our defense uses a lot of 3 Safety sets, and there is no guarantee Geathers makes it through all 16 games.  Collins would be an upgrade at SS, and Ballard had said that while he is comfortable with our S group that an upgrade is possible.   

 

OLB Damien Wilson - 3 Years/$16 M  Eberfus was his linebackers coach in Dallas.  He's a less expensive option than Mosely that should work very well in our scheme and fills up that last spot needed in our LB trio.  

 

EDGE Za'Darrius Smith - 3 Years/$26 M ($12 M Guaranteed)  Trey Flowers seems like he will command a $17 M+/year contract and seems to have close ties to joining Miami, joining his DC Flores.  Smith is 26 and is coming off a career-high 8.5 sacks in Baltimore. In my original draft of this mock, I had us getting Mosely, but I feel that the Ravens will find a way to secure Mosely but cannot realistically retain him and Smith. Smith is a cheaper option that will still be very productive on the EDGE.    

 

T Cameron Fleming - 1 Year/$3 M OL depth and is still young at 27 when the season starts. 

 

Cap spent this year for Free Agents: $39,800,000

Cap Space Remaining After Free Agency: $44,483,741

 

NFL Draft

 

Round 1: DT Dre'Mont Jones Ohio State Athletic 3-Tech that is an excellent pass rusher. Run defense is on the weaker side but he can develop into a very strong DT. 

Round 2: WR A.J. Brown Mississippi Can be a very productive slot receiver that can move the chains and gets YAC.  A WR group of Hilton-Humphries-Brown-Inman would be very solid for Luck. 

Round 2: CB Amani Oruwariye Penn State His size (6'1" 204 lb) and his excellent ball skills & awareness makes him an excellent outside/zone CB.  Even if we re-sign Desir, Desir is getting older (29 during the season) and we need more young talent at the position. 

Round 3: LB Vosean Joseph Florida Good depth at the WILL and has physical tools that can be developed.  

Round 4: DE Anthony Nelson Iowa Solid edge rusher that had 9.5 sacks in 2018.  Adds pass rush rotational depth to the line. 

Round 4: OT Max Sharping Northern Illinois - Adds OL depth. 

Round 5: S Will Harris Boston College  Can cover the TE and would be good interchangeable depth at SS. No guarantee that any of our safeties play all 16 games so grabbing another S for depth, especially at SS, is important.  

Round 6: RB Mike Weber Ohio State Excels at running up the middle churning out yards that meet our bruiser back need.  

Round 7: TE Dax Raymond Utah St. Reich and Ballard like to use TEs.  Adding a young TE to the mix with the last pick is not a bad idea. 

 

Projected NFL Draft Pick Salaries: $8,015,052

 

Cap Space Roll-over for Next Season: $36,468,689

 

Roster

Free Agent in Red  

Rookie in Green 

 

Offense

QB: Luck, Brissett, Walker

RB: Mack, Hines, Wilkins, Williams, Weber 

WR: Hilton, Humphries, Inman, Brown, Cain, Fountain, Pascal, Rogers, Johnson, Wright  

TE: Ebron, Doyle, Travis, Alie-Cox, Hewitt, Raymond 

LT: Castonzo, Fleming, Scharping 

LG: Nelson

C: Kelly, Boehm, Andrews

RG: Glowinski, Haeg

RT: Smith, Clark

 

Defense

DT: Autry, Hunt, Jones, Ridgeway, Stewart, Ward

DE: Sheard, Smith, Lewis, Turay, Nelson, Muhammed, Phillips 

LB: Leonard, Walker, Wilson, Joseph, Franklin, Adams, Moore, Thomas

CB: Desir, Moore, Wilson, Oruwariye, Hairston, Milton 

S: Hooker, Collins, Geathers, Farley, Harris, Odum, Martin, Milligan 

 

Special Teams 

K: Vinatieri

P: Sanchez

LS: Rhodes

[csmopar]

Only thing I would say is that I don't see Ballard handing out a 5 yr contract.  Not to a guy he didn't draft.

[BProland85]

Love the free agent signings of Collins, ZaDarius Smith, and Cameron Fleming. 

 

For the draft, I'm loving the selections of AJ Brown, Amani Oruwayie, and Max Scharping. They would all be steals at that point. I'm okay with the selection of Dre'Mont Jones, only if Ballard fully believes he can get much better at stopping the run as well. 

[Yoshinator]

26 minutes ago, Caleb3502 said:

Thought I would do one more mock offseason before free agency begins on March 13 at 4 p.m.  Opening cap space will be after the already completed signings.   

 

Cap Space: $102,447,644

 

Colts Free Agents

 

Unrestricted FAs

Pierre Desir CB - 2 Years/$10 M  

Clayton Geathers SS - 1 Years/$4 M 

Najee Goode OLB

Mark Glowinski G - 3 Years/$18 M ($4.2 M Signing Bonus)

Adam Vinatieri K - 1 Year/$3.875 M 

Ryan Grant WR

Geneo Grissom DE

Ryan Hewitt TE - 1 Year/$1 M 

Margus Hunt DE - 2 Years/$9 M 

J. J. Wilcox SS

Al Woods DT - I don't think we will bring back both him and Hunt, and I think Hunt has more quality football left in him. 

Dontrelle Inman WR - 1 Year/$4.5 M (Fully Guaranteed)

Mike Mitchell FS

Matt Slauson G  - Retired 

J'Marcus Webb OT

 

Restricted FAs

Evan Boehm C - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Matthias Farley SS - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Christopher Milton CB - 1 Year/$2.035 (Original Round Tender)

Corey Moore FS

Chester Rogers WR - 1 Year/2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Ross Travis TE - 1 Year/720 K 

 

Exclusive-Rights FAs

Marcus Johnson WR - 1 Year/$645K 

Luke Rhodes LS - 1 Year/$645K

 

Added Cap spent on Re-Signings: $18,163,903

Remaining Cap Space After Re-Signings: $84,283,741

 

Free Agents

 

WR Adam Humphries - 4 Years/$42 M ($20 M Guaranteed)  Humphries gets a good deal of YAC: 10th most YAC among WRs with 423 yards. Outside of Hilton, the Colts are in the bottom of the league in YAC. He'll be 26 when the season starts, so we can sign him during the prime of his career.  

 

S Landon Collins - 5 Years/$62 M (36 M Guaranteed) 25 years old and is the only S to record 95+ tackles over each of the last 4 seasons.  Even if we re-sign Geathers, our defense uses a lot of 3 Safety sets, and there is no guarantee Geathers makes it through all 16 games.  Collins would be an upgrade at SS, and Ballard had said that while he is comfortable with our S group that an upgrade is possible.   

 

OLB Damien Wilson - 3 Years/$16 M  Eberfus was his linebackers coach in Dallas.  He's a less expensive option than Mosely that should work very well in our scheme and fills up that last spot needed in our LB trio.  

 

EDGE Za'Darrius Smith - 3 Years/$26 M ($12 M Guaranteed)  Trey Flowers seems like he will command a $17 M+/year contract and seems to have close ties to joining Miami, joining his DC Flores.  Smith is 26 and is coming off a career-high 8.5 sacks in Baltimore. In my original draft of this mock, I had us getting Mosely, but I feel that the Ravens will find a way to secure Mosely but cannot realistically retain him and Smith. Smith is a cheaper option that will still be very productive on the EDGE.    

 

T Cameron Fleming - 1 Year/$3 M OL depth and is still young at 27 when the season starts. 

 

Cap spent this year for Free Agents: $39,800,000

Cap Space Remaining After Free Agency: $44,483,741

 

NFL Draft

 

Round 1: DT Dre'Mont Jones Ohio State Athletic 3-Tech that is an excellent pass rusher. Run defense is on the weaker side but he can develop into a very strong DT. 

Round 2: WR A.J. Brown Mississippi Can be a very productive slot receiver that can move the chains and gets YAC.  A WR group of Hilton-Humphries-Brown-Inman would be very solid for Luck. 

Round 2: CB Amani Oruwariye Penn State His size (6'1" 204 lb) and his excellent ball skills & awareness makes him an excellent outside/zone CB.  Even if we re-sign Desir, Desir is getting older (29 during the season) and we need more young talent at the position. 

Round 3: LB Vosean Joseph Florida Good depth at the WILL and has physical tools that can be developed.  

Round 4: DE Anthony Nelson Iowa Solid edge rusher that had 9.5 sacks in 2018.  Adds pass rush rotational depth to the line. 

Round 4: OT Max Sharping Northern Illinois - Adds OL depth. 

Round 5: S Will Harris Boston College  Can cover the TE and would be good interchangeable depth at SS. No guarantee that any of our safeties play all 16 games so grabbing another S for depth, especially at SS, is important.  

Round 6: RB Mike Weber Ohio State Excels at running up the middle churning out yards that meet our bruiser back need.  

Round 7: TE Dax Raymond Utah St. Reich and Ballard like to use TEs.  Adding a young TE to the mix with the last pick is not a bad idea. 

 

Projected NFL Draft Pick Salaries: $8,015,052

 

Cap Space Roll-over for Next Season: $36,468,689

 

Roster

Free Agent in Red  

Rookie in Green 

 

Offense

QB: Luck, Brissett, Walker

RB: Mack, Hines, Wilkins, Williams, Weber 

WR: Hilton, Humphries, Inman, Brown, Cain, Fountain, Pascal, Rogers, Johnson, Wright  

TE: Ebron, Doyle, Travis, Alie-Cox, Hewitt, Raymond 

LT: Castonzo, Fleming, Scharping 

LG: Nelson

C: Kelly, Boehm, Andrews

RG: Glowinski, Haeg

RT: Smith, Clark

 

Defense

DT: Autry, Hunt, Jones, Ridgeway, Stewart, Ward

DE: Sheard, Smith, Lewis, Turay, Nelson, Muhammed, Phillips 

LB: Leonard, Walker, Wilson, Joseph, Franklin, Adams, Moore, Thomas

CB: Desir, Moore, Wilson, Oruwariye, Hairston, Milton 

S: Hooker, Collins, Geathers, Farley, Harris, Odum, Martin, Milligan 

 

Special Teams 

K: Vinatieri

P: Sanchez

LS: Rhodes

Nice effort Caleb! I love the FA signings, I just think that Collins will cost much more than that, but we'll see. Like the draft as well. First 3 picks would be very strong, and they are possible at those spots. Good middle of the draft, and I love Weber and Raymond as sneaky sleepers. Would be very satisfied with this offseason! 

[gnet550]

Yes, please. This would be a near perfect off-season to me.  Fills almost all of our holes and makes the Colts a much more talented team.

[NewColtsFan]

On 3/6/2019 at 5:48 AM, Caleb3502 said:

Thought I would do one more mock offseason before free agency begins on March 13 at 4 p.m.  Opening cap space will be after the already completed signings.   

 

Cap Space: $102,447,644

 

Colts Free Agents

 

Unrestricted FAs

Pierre Desir CB - 2 Years/$10 M  

Clayton Geathers SS - 1 Years/$4 M 

Najee Goode OLB

Mark Glowinski G - 3 Years/$18 M ($4.2 M Signing Bonus)

Adam Vinatieri K - 1 Year/$3.875 M 

Ryan Grant WR

Geneo Grissom DE

Ryan Hewitt TE - 1 Year/$1 M 

Margus Hunt DE - 2 Years/$9 M 

J. J. Wilcox SS

Al Woods DT - I don't think we will bring back both him and Hunt, and I think Hunt has more quality football left in him. 

Dontrelle Inman WR - 1 Year/$4.5 M (Fully Guaranteed)

Mike Mitchell FS

Matt Slauson G  - Retired 

J'Marcus Webb OT

 

Restricted FAs

Evan Boehm C - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Matthias Farley SS - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Christopher Milton CB - 1 Year/$2.035 (Original Round Tender)

Corey Moore FS

Chester Rogers WR - 1 Year/2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

Ross Travis TE - 1 Year/720 K 

 

Exclusive-Rights FAs

Marcus Johnson WR - 1 Year/$645K 

Luke Rhodes LS - 1 Year/$645K

 

Added Cap spent on Re-Signings: $18,163,903

Remaining Cap Space After Re-Signings: $84,283,741

 

Free Agents

 

WR Adam Humphries - 4 Years/$42 M ($20 M Guaranteed)  Humphries gets a good deal of YAC: 10th most YAC among WRs with 423 yards. Outside of Hilton, the Colts are in the bottom of the league in YAC. He'll be 26 when the season starts, so we can sign him during the prime of his career.  

 

S Landon Collins - 5 Years/$62 M (36 M Guaranteed) 25 years old and is the only S to record 95+ tackles over each of the last 4 seasons.  Even if we re-sign Geathers, our defense uses a lot of 3 Safety sets, and there is no guarantee Geathers makes it through all 16 games.  Collins would be an upgrade at SS, and Ballard had said that while he is comfortable with our S group that an upgrade is possible.   

 

OLB Damien Wilson - 3 Years/$16 M  Eberfus was his linebackers coach in Dallas.  He's a less expensive option than Mosely that should work very well in our scheme and fills up that last spot needed in our LB trio.  

 

EDGE Za'Darrius Smith - 3 Years/$26 M ($12 M Guaranteed)  Trey Flowers seems like he will command a $17 M+/year contract and seems to have close ties to joining Miami, joining his DC Flores.  Smith is 26 and is coming off a career-high 8.5 sacks in Baltimore. In my original draft of this mock, I had us getting Mosely, but I feel that the Ravens will find a way to secure Mosely but cannot realistically retain him and Smith. Smith is a cheaper option that will still be very productive on the EDGE.    

 

T Cameron Fleming - 1 Year/$3 M OL depth and is still young at 27 when the season starts. 

 

Cap spent this year for Free Agents: $39,800,000

Cap Space Remaining After Free Agency: $44,483,741

 

NFL Draft

 

Round 1: DT Dre'Mont Jones Ohio State Athletic 3-Tech that is an excellent pass rusher. Run defense is on the weaker side but he can develop into a very strong DT. 

Round 2: WR A.J. Brown Mississippi Can be a very productive slot receiver that can move the chains and gets YAC.  A WR group of Hilton-Humphries-Brown-Inman would be very solid for Luck. 

Round 2: CB Amani Oruwariye Penn State His size (6'1" 204 lb) and his excellent ball skills & awareness makes him an excellent outside/zone CB.  Even if we re-sign Desir, Desir is getting older (29 during the season) and we need more young talent at the position. 

Round 3: LB Vosean Joseph Florida Good depth at the WILL and has physical tools that can be developed.  

Round 4: DE Anthony Nelson Iowa Solid edge rusher that had 9.5 sacks in 2018.  Adds pass rush rotational depth to the line. 

Round 4: OT Max Sharping Northern Illinois - Adds OL depth. 

Round 5: S Will Harris Boston College  Can cover the TE and would be good interchangeable depth at SS. No guarantee that any of our safeties play all 16 games so grabbing another S for depth, especially at SS, is important.  

Round 6: RB Mike Weber Ohio State Excels at running up the middle churning out yards that meet our bruiser back need.  

Round 7: TE Dax Raymond Utah St. Reich and Ballard like to use TEs.  Adding a young TE to the mix with the last pick is not a bad idea. 

 

Projected NFL Draft Pick Salaries: $8,015,052

 

Cap Space Roll-over for Next Season: $36,468,689

 

Roster

Free Agent in Red  

Rookie in Green 

 

Offense

QB: Luck, Brissett, Walker

RB: Mack, Hines, Wilkins, Williams, Weber 

WR: Hilton, Humphries, Inman, Brown, Cain, Fountain, Pascal, Rogers, Johnson, Wright  

TE: Ebron, Doyle, Travis, Alie-Cox, Hewitt, Raymond 

LT: Castonzo, Fleming, Scharping 

LG: Nelson

C: Kelly, Boehm, Andrews

RG: Glowinski, Haeg

RT: Smith, Clark

 

Defense

DT: Autry, Hunt, Jones, Ridgeway, Stewart, Ward

DE: Sheard, Smith, Lewis, Turay, Nelson, Muhammed, Phillips 

LB: Leonard, Walker, Wilson, Joseph, Franklin, Adams, Moore, Thomas

CB: Desir, Moore, Wilson, Oruwariye, Hairston, Milton 

S: Hooker, Collins, Geathers, Farley, Harris, Odum, Martin, Milligan 

 

Special Teams 

K: Vinatieri

P: Sanchez

LS: Rhodes

 

I try not to evaluate the off-season mocks of other posters.   I think I've done two this year and both times it was requested that I offer my opinion.    But what I have done is offer some comments about the money that posters want us to spend,  and that's why I'd like to do here...

 

We'll start with the re-signing of our own players.

 

I don't see Desir returning on a 2/10 deal.   I think it would take a minimum of 3/15 and maybe even 3/18 to get him back.   And I don't think that would be a lock.

 

Not sure if Geathers returns on a 1/4 deal.    

 

I think Inman would come back for 1/4.5 as you offered,  but there is zero chance that we're guaranteeing all of it.    It simply isn't done.    You almost never offer 100 percent guaranteed.   I think Kirk Cousins was the first to get this.     We'd might do 2 Mill guaranteed --- tops -- but maybe less.

 

Free Agency:

 

I think we might be able to sign Humphries for 4/42,  but I don't think we'd guarantee 20 Mill.  The Colts front office does an amazing job in contract Negotiations.   For example,  I think Hilton and AC, their guarantees were in the teens.   

 

I think there's no chance whatsoever that we're paying Collins 5/62.5.   That's 12.5 per year.   I'd peg that as a non-starter.   And I think there's less than a zero percentchance of $36 MIll being guarantted.    Doubt we'd do $26 Mill guaranteed.    We might do $16 MIll.    But the monies on Collins are completely unrealistic, especially for the Colts.    Sorry.

 

 

Wilson and Fleming are fine.

 

But the Za'Darius Smith deal is WAY off.    He's not signing with anyone for 3/26.   Not the Colts or anyone else.   Smith is likely getting a 4 or 5 year deal for roughly $10 Mill per,  maybe more.   He's a pass rusher coming off his best season and those guys get paid.    There's a lot of money in the FA pool this year and guys will get paid,  (even overpaid)  based on the Law of Supply and Demand.    And the demand is always great.   So we'd have to step up bigtime to get Smith,  and I'd like to get him.

 

Please don't take my comments here personally.   Many (most?) posters here  struggle with the money aspect of FA.

 

Otherwise,  I always want to say thanks for the time and effort you put into this....   Appreciate it.         

 

 

 

[Caleb3502]

14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I try not to evaluate the off-season mocks of other posters.   I think I've done two this year and both times it was requested that I offer my opinion.    But what I have done is offer some comments about the money that posters want us to spend,  and that's why I'd like to do here...

 

We'll start with the re-signing of our own players.

 

I don't see Desir returning on a 2/10 deal.   I think it would take a minimum of 3/15 and maybe even 3/18 to get him back.   And I don't think that would be a lock.

 

Not sure if Geathers returns on a 1/4 deal.    

 

I think Inman would come back for 1/4.5 as you offered,  but there is zero chance that we're guaranteeing all of it.    It simply isn't done.    You almost never offer 100 percent guaranteed.   I think Kirk Cousins was the first to get this.     We'd might do 2 Mill guaranteed --- tops -- but maybe less.

 

Free Agency:

 

I think we might be able to sign Humphries for 4/42,  but I don't think we'd guarantee 20 Mill.  The Colts front office does an amazing job in contract Negotiations.   For example,  I think Hilton and AC, their guarantees were in the teens.   

 

I think there's no chance whatsoever that we're paying Collins 5/62.5.   That's 12.5 per year.   I'd peg that as a non-starter.   And I think there's less than a zero percentchance of $36 MIll being guarantted.    Doubt we'd do $26 Mill guaranteed.    We might do $16 MIll.    But the monies on Collins are completely unrealistic, especially for the Colts.    Sorry.

 

 

Wilson and Fleming are fine.

 

But the Za'Darius Smith deal is WAY off.    He's not signing with anyone for 3/26.   Not the Colts or anyone else.   Smith is likely getting a 4 or 5 year deal for roughly $10 Mill per,  maybe more.   He's a pass rusher coming off his best season and those guys get paid.    There's a lot of money in the FA pool this year and guys will get paid,  (even overpaid)  based on the Law of Supply and Demand.    And the demand is always great.   So we'd have to step up bigtime to get Smith,  and I'd like to get him.

 

Please don't take my comments here personally.   Many (most?) posters here  struggle with the money aspect of FA.

 

Otherwise,  I always want to say thanks for the time and effort you put into this....   Appreciate it.         

 

 

 

 

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you outlined here, and I appreciate the feedback.  I do have some questions and notes regarding your response: 

 

You are most likely right on Desir getting three years, I just felt that with his age coming on 29 that a 2-year deal would be what Ballard would want, but I can see the market pushing that third year if we want him back.  A lot of other CBs on the market are nearing or in their late twenties so a 3-year/$6 M or more deal is definitely possible.  I think if it gets much beyond $6 M that Ballard will get Desir's replacement in the draft.  

 

As you said, Inman will most likely not get a fully guaranteed contract. Vinatieri got $2 M guaranteed with his deal, so your figure makes sense. 

 

Geathers is tough to gauge because we don't know what the market will be like for him. If he doesn't have any takers in FA I could see him coming back on a small 1-year deal.  There's a lot of quality young safeties on the market and I'm not sure if Geathers would get a much bigger deal with his injury history. What type of contract do you see Geathers getting?

 

For Humphries, $20 M is a little high but I think it could be close to that.  Hilton has $28 M in guarantees ($11 M at signing) in his 5 Year/$65 M contract and AC has $35 M in guarantees ($18 M at signing) for his 4 year/$43.8 M contract. Ballard seems to be in a range of about 30 to 45% of the contract being guaranteed, so at like 40% it would be about $17 M, which I could see. 45% would be $18.9, so $20 M is a little high.  

 

I have no real argument for the Collins contract other than that is what I typically saw in online and from other posters https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/3/5/18251016/landon-collins-to-the-colts.  What do you believe would be a realistic contract if the Colts go after Collins?  I'm also not set on getting Collins, I originally had Amani Hooker in my mock at #89 and I would be totally fine on passing on Collins for A. Hooker or another SS in the draft.  

 

I also have no real argument for the Smith contract, he is more than likely getting $10 M+ because that is how the market goes, especially with many pass rushers on the tag, so I agree with you 100%.