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oldunclemark

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No I can't...I am telling you what someone else who gets paid to cover this said would happen if they look to extend Freeney. If that's not good enough for you fine. I really don't care about this point. I think it was Rich Nye who reported it so e-mail him and ask him.

Without additional information, I cannot proceed with the analysis. Oh well.

Also don't tell others they can't play the what if game as you did in a previous post when you are doing it. You are playing the what if game on what you think other free agents are going to get paid. You have no idea what type of cap hit our free agents are going to get outside of Mathis and that's only if he plays under the tag. I doubt he will. I'd say it far more likely they get him to sign a long term contract after the tag is placed on him. Other wise you are playing the what if game you don't want anyone else to play.

You misunderstand. I do not tell others they cannot play the what-if game. They are free to play whatever games they wish. I am just asking what are the detailed assumptions behind their what-ifs, to see if they pass the red-face test. I see nothing wrong with that, do you? I have no idea what our FAs will negotiate to re-sign with the team. That is why I ask for the detailed assumptions you used for the 4 FAs you want to re-sign. I will assume we let the other 11 go, so they don't hit the cap at all. Why do you question whether Mathis will play under the tag? Does he have a choice? If you think he can be signed to a LT contract, what are the details of the assumptions you would like to use for him in the analysis? The tag costs $10.6 for DEs, what assumptions will you make for his contract that will pass the red face test in comparison to his age (30), his previous contract (5years, $13 cuml bonuses, $10.7 cuml salary) that I should input into the analysis?

The theory you are offering is that we pay Freeney 19 million this season and Mathis plays under the franchise tag and we don't release anyone not named Curtis Painter to make other cap space. I am sorry I don't think that's going to happen. I think the Colts will make other moves to free up cap space and I think Grigson is going to do his best to set up deals so they work with the cap the best he can. Now with that said I will freely admit that they might not be able to free up enough cap space to keep everyone they want to keep and it's going to be a challenge to free up cap space in general with that said I don't think they aren't going to try either.

You are mistaken. I am not putting up that theory at all. I am merely showing that using your assumptions on who we bring back under what cap costs, we will still very little room in the 2012 cap to offer PM anything substantial or comparable to the current contract. You claim that the Colts may be able to free up additional cap space with restructuring deals, yet you provide me no details on what those deals will look like, and therefore cannot input them into the analysis, much less even look them over to see if they pass the red-face test.

I told you what I think they are going to do. I told you I think they are going to extend Freeney and then sign Mathis to a long term deal after tagging him to lower his cap number. From there I think they will look into releasing players like maybe Bullitt, Addai, and maybe Clark (if they keep Tamme), as well as maybe Brackett who wont make much cap space but I am not sure they will bring him back if he no longer fits their system. That should free up a good amount of money that if you spend it wisely you can do something with it. Probably starting with trying to resign Garcon and going from there. If I was the GM I would make my wish list of players to keep starting with Mathis, Garcon, Tamme, Saturday, Anderson, and then Wheeler. I could be way off on that. They might only want to keep Mathis and Garcon, we didn't hire a new GM to bring back all our old playres. They might want to keep someone I didn't list. Also just because I think they might want to keep them doesn't mean they will be able too. It could be someone sees Jacob Tamme and says hey he can come be our starting tightend let's pay him starter money and over pays for him. It could be they run out of money to bring back a guy like Wheeler. It could be Saturday retire's and takes the call out of our hands. You don't have to agree with my theory and it's clear you don't so I think it's time to agree to disagree about it.

Mathis, in my spreadsheet is a FA, and has no cap hit in 2012, since he is off-contract. Per your assumption to tag him, I added 10,6 to the cap hit, I cannot input Freeney, because I don't have the details of his new contract that you assume he will accept that yields a 2012 cap hit of 8, instead of the 19 that is currently there from his old contract. Of that 19, 14 is straight salary, which Freeney is expecting in the last year of his back-loaded contract. So, my natural question comes forth as what kind of new deal must the Colts offer Freeney to forego that 14 and accept a new deal that will only hit the 2012 cap with 8 now. This is the red-face test I am talking about.

No I can't give you the specific numbers you want because I am not a GM but you seem to shaping this to your rules so only your theory works. You wont play what if's with Freeney's contract that could free up more money but yet you have no problem playing what if's in terms of what you think a player will be worth on the open market or pretty much saying since you wont deal with what if's that we wont extend Freeney's contract to lower his cap hit and he will be paid 19 million this season. At that point it stops being a discussion about what can happen and it becomes you just shoving your theory down my throat till I say I give.

OK, then you will understand without the specifics, I cannot input and run the analysis. This is not my theory. This is your model I am running with your assumptions. I don't mind playing what-ifs with Freeney's contract. Just provide me with what assumptions I should make about his new contract and answer the question why Freeney would accept it given his existing contract. Unlike Mathis, Freeney is under contract for 2012, and I don't need his market value, his current contracted value will do. I am not shoving my theory down anyone's throat, because again, this is your model with your assumptions. Forgive me for doing the red-face test to some of your assumptions.

As for Peyton's contract. I still say the issue is Peyton's health. If he was fully healthy I don't think Irsay would blink an eye at paying him the 17 million for this season yes even if it cost them other players. The reason for that is that a fully healthy Peyton Manning has proven he can cover up other holes on a team that is forced by paying him 17 million. That's part of the reason he get's paid that much. The problem is the Colts have no idea about his health and if he'll be able to play first of all and then if he can play when that will be and how good he will be after that. The issue is if we pick up the option then he is locked into the contract and if he can't play we have to use a third of the cap to get out of the contract and pretty completely gut the team plus pay cap hits for the next three years after that. That's the issue. You can do a new incentive deal that protects you against him not being able to play and doesn't hurt you with the cap and probably set it up in a way that if he can't play this season you can get out of the contract and take no future cap hits as well. Now with that said I don't think Peyton is going to take that contract because I think the truth be told Peyton is ready to move on from the Colts.

I disagree. Even if PM was 100%, there are real bad cap space consequences for paying him the $28 option bonus for the entire term of the contract. If Irsay paid it, PM would not only have to cover previous holes that the team could not otherwise afford to cover, but additional holes as a result of PM's contract will appear. And if PM were unable to play through his contract, we will have a repeat of what happened last season. I think this became apparent to Irsay, which provided him the impetus to clean house. If PM cannot play in 2012 after paying the $28, we would have to absorb 32% of the total team cap in 2012, to get out of the contract, but will not be subject to further cap hits in following years. However, 32% of the cap space in one year may well set us back several years.

I know Peyton said he wanted to be here but I think he said that because that's what he had to say and also frankly Peyton is smart he knows there was going to be a bad guy in this and he knew saying that put the heat on Irsay. I also think that's why Irsay called him a poltican because frankly that's what Peyton was doing when he said that. So all Irsay really did on Tuesday was say okay Peyton put your money where your mouth is. If you want to be a Colt and stay here we can do it but you are going to have to give up money to do it. Now we'll see how badly Manning wants to be a Colt or not. Also please don't take that as me attacking Peyton. I am not I wouldn't fault him at all if he said you know I don't have interest in taking less money to groom my replacement on a team that has no real shot at a Super Bowl. Still it was a smart move by Irsay to put the heat back on Manning.

This has yet to be played out. PM may surprise me, and do the unexpected. However, right now, if I were him, knowing him to be the competitive guy he is, I would move on from the Colts. I have no issue with what Irsay has done thus far (except for signing the current agreement, which IMO was egregious).

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Start over smells like 6-10....

..I want to go to the playoffs in 2012

Even if PM returns, there are no guarantees that the team will get to the playoffs. It’s not certain if the other older stars come back, both because the team is in a rebuild phase and because it can be difficult in terms of the salary cap.

Even if everyone would come back, the last time the team was good was in 2010 and it's two years ago. It's not certain all the old key players will be on the same level now, they are after all not getting any younger. They will also be more injury-prone because of their age.

In addition (even with all the stars back) there are still holes in the team and it will not be much cap space to bring in FAs.

If Peyton came back better than ever, this is a 9-7 or 10-6 roster, and that's only if we kill our cap to re-sign aging and less effective veterans. We need to embrace the long overdue rebuilding that needs to be done

Well said

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Which is all I am saying it's best not to say things like they are for sure going to be that way right now. There are a lot of peaces up in the air and who knows how they will land. I am not even sure Peyton and Irsay fully know how this will turn out yet, I think they have an idea but I doubt they know. I didn't mean to offend you, I was mearly saying I am not sure it's for sure it's going to be a one year deal. I do think you can read the tea leaves and see it could very well be a one year deal.

Oh my goodness, not offended at all. This is what discussion boards are for - discussion.

I think we agree that we are all just guessing about what is going to happen. And right now it is still possible for a number of different outcomes.

Nothing is certain until Peyton signs:

a) a new contract with the Colts

b) a new contract with another team

c) his retirement papers

However, I do feel absolutely positive that the $28 million option will not be paid.

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Wow.. the attitude on this forum towards Peyton has changed dramatically over the last 6 years. I remember in 2005 everyone on here talking about him being the GOAT. Now everyone wants him to retire, coach, take a hike, get outta dodge! Everyone is ready to jump on the Andrew Luck train and speculate future colts glory with an untested rookie.

If Peyton believes he is healthy enough to play then he deserves the chance to come back! Now if he posts back-to-back 4-12 seasons, then it's time to hang up the cleats, but he has earned the chance to suck. I would take an 80% PM for two years over a 100% rookie anytime/anyday. You take advantage of these opportunities now! Tomorrow will worry about itself. Colts fans have taken for granted the difficulty of getting to the playoffs, because we have been spoiled by Peyton freakin Manning.

A lot of people will look foolish when Manning is crowned MVP and come back player of the year next season.

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Wow.. the attitude on this forum towards Peyton has changed dramatically over the last 6 years. I remember in 2005 everyone on here talking about him being the GOAT. Now everyone wants him to retire, coach, take a hike, get outta dodge! Everyone is ready to jump on the Andrew Luck train and speculate future colts glory with an untested rookie.

If Peyton believes he is healthy enough to play then he deserves the chance to come back! Now if he posts back-to-back 4-12 seasons, then it's time to hang up the cleats, but he has earned the chance to suck. I would take an 80% PM for two years over a 100% rookie anytime/anyday. You take advantage of these opportunities now! Tomorrow will worry about itself. Colts fans have taken for granted the difficulty of getting to the playoffs, because we have been spoiled by Peyton freakin Manning.

A lot of people will look foolish when Manning is crowned MVP and come back player of the year next season.

Count me as one of the new breed of 'foolish' people on this forum. Although it's a title I've been given many times before.......

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This is not true. PM has not said that he would restructure his contract. It was reported by Schefter, but was not confirmed. In fact, when asked about the report, PM laughed and said that sources are sometimes inaccurate.

Last season, PM was paid $26.4MM.

1) When the Colts cut PM, it will trigger an immediate $10.4MM cap hit to 2012.

2) Any new contract will just add on top of that.

3) Therefore, any new contract, in order to be more cap friendly than the old contract will need to hit the 2012 cap less than $6.6MM ($17MM-$10.4MM)

Wow you are just a really negative person. I believe manning and irsay will work something out

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Wow.. the attitude on this forum towards Peyton has changed dramatically over the last 6 years. I remember in 2005 everyone on here talking about him being the GOAT. Now everyone wants him to retire, coach, take a hike, get outta dodge! Everyone is ready to jump on the Andrew Luck train and speculate future colts glory with an untested rookie.

If Peyton believes he is healthy enough to play then he deserves the chance to come back! Now if he posts back-to-back 4-12 seasons, then it's time to hang up the cleats, but he has earned the chance to suck. I would take an 80% PM for two years over a 100% rookie anytime/anyday. You take advantage of these opportunities now! Tomorrow will worry about itself. Colts fans have taken for granted the difficulty of getting to the playoffs, because we have been spoiled by Peyton freakin Manning.

A lot of people will look foolish when Manning is crowned MVP and come back player of the year next season.

I think a lot of what people see as negativity or anti-Manning is actually pro-Colts. I would seriously doubt there is one person on this board, or any Colts fan who doesn't acknowledge what PM was or is or could be again. I bet there isn't one of us who wouldn't want this to have all been different (no injury, no drama, no money issues, ageless....). I bet we wouldn't be assessing this the same way if the Colts went 8-8 without PM and had the 17th pick. There are those who see the realities, the health, financial, draft position, draft talent at the same position this year, supporting talent on the roster, other existing FAs, and reach uncomfortable, sad, disappointing conclusions. There are no Manning haters here I have seen. Not one.

I think where the rubber hits the road for those who have moved past the emotion of the situation is the "if" of PM's ability to play quarterback can't be dismissed, can't be understated, and can't be ignored in a league with a salary cap. You can gamble a few million on hope, on sentiment, on history, on best case scenerios, but you can't gamble $102 million. That's not mean, or cruel, or disrespectful. That's running a business and team in the proper way.

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I think a lot of what people see as negativity or anti-Manning is actually pro-Colts. I would seriously doubt there is one person on this board, or any Colts fan who doesn't acknowledge what PM was or is or could be again. I bet there isn't one of us who wouldn't want this to have all been different (no injury, no drama, no money issues, ageless....). I bet we wouldn't be assessing this the same way if the Colts went 8-8 without PM and had the 17th pick. There are those who see the realities, the health, financial, draft position, draft talent at the same position this year, supporting talent on the roster, other existing FAs, and reach uncomfortable, sad, disappointing conclusions. There are no Manning haters here I have seen. Not one.

I think where the rubber hits the road for those who have moved past the emotion of the situation is the "if" of PM's ability to play quarterback can't be dismissed, can't be understated, and can't be ignored in a league with a salary cap. You can gamble a few million on hope, on sentiment, on history, on best case scenerios, but you can't gamble $102 million. That's not mean, or cruel, or disrespectful. That's running a business and team in the proper way.

Excellent post. Very well said

I'm not sure why people seem to want to see either other fans or Irsay as Manning haters. It's just not true.

People want to blame someone but, it is not anyone's fault. No one is being disrespected, no one has done/or been done wrong

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Excellent post. Very well said

I'm not sure why people seem to want to see either other fans or Irsay as Manning haters. It's just not true.

People want to blame someone but, it is not anyone's fault. No one is being disrespected, no one has done/or been done wrong

I would guess that you do understand..Maureen...

Those of us who see a path for Manning to return and root for that..

might say we are being disrespected...

Its the assumption that this is a done deal....Clearly..we know now its not.

The story line on TV and radio..which drives the 'Manning-is-gone' theory....isnt backed by anything other than vocal repitition..

..and 'cap numbers which can be changed by restructuring of contracts

I understand that some blame Manning for their losses in the post-season...That's a sports arguement

But no matter how many times Manning and Irsay both say they want him to stay as QB...

there are those who inexplicably say the deal has been set for weeks now .....Manning is gone...

AND (and this is the key point) that anyone who doesn't see it is somehow not a true fan of the Colts, just of Manning, or somehow foolish in their thinking...

...Nobody who simply roots for their team's QB to return likes to hear how stupid they are and how they are

'not living in the real world'..nobody likes to be called dumb....

You understand that, right?

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From Andrew Brandt (former GM of the Packers): http://www.nationalf...ent-Part-2.html

As to moving the date, the CBA prevents renegotiations of contracts following the last regular season game of the League Year within which the date is in. The March 8th date is in the 2011 League Year, as the 2012 League Year begins on March 13th.

The NFL Management Council would interpret the language to allow the date to be moved, suggesting a moved date is not a "renegotiation". The NFL Players Association's lawyers have a different interpretation of that language, and could contest a moved date as a renegotiation in a grievance against the NFL and the Colts.However, that discussion may be moot due to the following...

Why move the date?

Manning is in limbo right now, both medically and contractually. The medical part may be out of his control and up to Mother Nature. The contract, however, is totally in his control. He will want to know his fate as soon as possible, needing March 8th to get here as quickly as it can. Why would he prolong that?

Even if Manning were allowed and amenable to moving the date, he would not want to move it past the first couple days of the new League Year – March 13th – so if the Colts release him he would be on the market when teams make their quarterback decisions. And, of course, his neck condition will not be dramatically different in a week’s time.

Yes, I read that when it came out. Since then, PFT, Polian, Irsay, even Condon, have said it can be done. I never said that PM will want to do this or that it will happen. I'm just saying that it is an option and I'm sure Irsay and PM have discussed/are discussing it.

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I think a lot of what people see as negativity or anti-Manning is actually pro-Colts. I would seriously doubt there is one person on this board, or any Colts fan who doesn't acknowledge what PM was or is or could be again. I bet there isn't one of us who wouldn't want this to have all been different (no injury, no drama, no money issues, ageless....). I bet we wouldn't be assessing this the same way if the Colts went 8-8 without PM and had the 17th pick. There are those who see the realities, the health, financial, draft position, draft talent at the same position this year, supporting talent on the roster, other existing FAs, and reach uncomfortable, sad, disappointing conclusions. There are no Manning haters here I have seen. Not one.

I think where the rubber hits the road for those who have moved past the emotion of the situation is the "if" of PM's ability to play quarterback can't be dismissed, can't be understated, and can't be ignored in a league with a salary cap. You can gamble a few million on hope, on sentiment, on history, on best case scenerios, but you can't gamble $102 million. That's not mean, or cruel, or disrespectful. That's running a business and team in the proper way.

Couldn’t agree with you more

The best solution for PM may not be the best solution for the Colts. PM should be treated with the respect he deserves, but Irsay and Grigson need to think about what is best for the team

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Couldn’t agree with you more

The best solution for PM may not be the best solution for the Colts. PM should be treated with the respect he deserves, but Irsay and Grigson need to think about what is best for the team

The best thing for PM is to stay in Indy..as he has said...

..and its very hard to argue that the best thing for the Colts (for 2012) is to have a healthy Manning...

beyond that..admittedly....its debatable .

But that's why you resign Payton AND draft Andrew Luck.

Its not as hard as we're making it seem..

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I would guess that you do understand..Maureen...

Those of us who see a path for Manning to return and root for that..

might say we are being disrespected...

Its the assumption that this is a done deal....Clearly..we know now its not.

The story line on TV and radio..which drives the 'Manning-is-gone' theory....isnt backed by anything other than vocal repitition..

..and 'cap numbers which can be changed by restructuring of contracts

I understand that some blame Manning for their losses in the post-season...That's a sports arguement

But no matter how many times Manning and Irsay both say they want him to stay as QB...

there are those who inexplicably say the deal has been set for weeks now .....Manning is gone...

AND (and this is the key point) that anyone who doesn't see it is somehow not a true fan of the Colts, just of Manning, or somehow foolish in their thinking...

...Nobody who simply roots for their team's QB to return likes to hear how stupid they are and how they are

'not living in the real world'..nobody likes to be called dumb....

You understand that, right?

UncleMark..........it is never ok to say someone is not a fan. It's the ultimate fan throw down.........thems fightin words for sure

So, your saying fans are getting more riled up by people who are disagreeing with them because they are doing it in a disrespectful way?

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Wow.. the attitude on this forum towards Peyton has changed dramatically over the last 6 years. I remember in 2005 everyone on here talking about him being the GOAT. Now everyone wants him to retire, coach, take a hike, get outta dodge! Everyone is ready to jump on the Andrew Luck train and speculate future colts glory with an untested rookie.

If Peyton believes he is healthy enough to play then he deserves the chance to come back! Now if he posts back-to-back 4-12 seasons, then it's time to hang up the cleats, but he has earned the chance to suck. I would take an 80% PM for two years over a 100% rookie anytime/anyday. You take advantage of these opportunities now! Tomorrow will worry about itself. Colts fans have taken for granted the difficulty of getting to the playoffs, because we have been spoiled by Peyton freakin Manning.

A lot of people will look foolish when Manning is crowned MVP and come back player of the year next season.

If course I wont look foolish. I EXPECT peyton to be better than luck next year IF HEALTHY. Luck however gives us the better chance of being great long term. That's why I want Luck over Peyton. Plus we will save tons of money by not bringing him back.

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..wow....not impossible but very unlikely considering the other report that Peyton's talking to JIm Irsay...

..and you are right about the tampering thing

One check of twitter shows national media isnt picking up on it yet so that's leads me to think its not true. Also other local media says no way the cards or Peyton would commit that blatant form of tampering.
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If course I wont look foolish. I EXPECT peyton to be better than luck next year IF HEALTHY. Luck however gives us the better chance of being great long term. That's why I want Luck over Peyton. Plus we will save tons of money by not bringing him back.

And if you're looking at it from Luck's point of view, it is not certain he really want to sit behind Manning. Not because he couldn’t have done it for a year or two and learned, but what if Peyton plays as before, what guarantees does Luck have that he will get his chance in the near future

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UncleMark..........it is never ok to say someone is not a fan. It's the ultimate fan throw down.........thems fightin words for sure

So, your saying fans are getting more riled up by people who are disagreeing with them because they are doing it in a disrespectful way?

Exactly.....Exactly right.

I'm here for debate.....most of us are...

I just dont understand why some of us are said to be ignorant for wanting Manning to return and seeing positive signs that he will..

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Exactly.....Exactly right.

I'm here for debate.....most of us are...

I just dont understand why some of us are said to be ignorant for wanting Manning to return and seeing positive signs that he will..

We're doing our best to stop this.

I don't understand it either.

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And if you're looking at it from Luck's point of view, it is not certain he really want to sit behind Manning. Not because he couldn’t have done it for a year or two and learned, but what if Peyton plays as before, what guarantees does Luck have that he will get his chance in the near future

That's the remaining unspoken issue in the Irsay,Manning talks...

Irsay will want manning to tutor Luck while he's leading us to the playoffs...

..and he will ask Manning to give up exhibition games (no problem) practice reps (big problem) to Luck.

Once the money is worked out, the cap room is secured and Peyton's health is headed in the right direction..

.

..you still have to make this situation work for Andrew Luck./

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Exactly.....Exactly right.

I'm here for debate.....most of us are...

I just dont understand why some of us are said to be ignorant for wanting Manning to return and seeing positive signs that he will..

I don't know why some of us are said to be ignorant for wanting Manning to return and seeing positive signs that he will.

However I can speculate it may have something to do with not seeing the other signs that he won't?

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No, I am not a negative person at all. I am just realistic, and aware of some details that many are not.

All I'm saying is I am a huge manning fan but I am even a bigger colts fan as well I want to see them win as much as anyone. And manning gives us that opportunity we gave number 21 chance after chance and we all want to just throw manning away after a season. Everybody knows if he had a better defense we would have way more rings then we do... I would rather cut freeney cause I think he has lost a step or two and he's getting old but somebody who works like manning does I don't think we should even be thinking about cutting ties with...

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All I'm saying is I am a huge manning fan but I am even a bigger colts fan as well I want to see them win as much as anyone. And manning gives us that opportunity we gave number 21 chance after chance and we all want to just throw manning away after a season. Everybody knows if he had a better defense we would have way more rings then we do... I would rather cut freeney cause I think he has lost a step or two and he's getting old but somebody who works like manning does I don't think we should even be thinking about cutting ties with...

Your being a huge manning fan should not have anything to do with calling me a negative person.

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All I'm saying is I am a huge manning fan but I am even a bigger colts fan as well I want to see them win as much as anyone. And manning gives us that opportunity we gave number 21 chance after chance and we all want to just throw manning away after a season. Everybody knows if he had a better defense we would have way more rings then we do... I would rather cut freeney cause I think he has lost a step or two and he's getting old but somebody who works like manning does I don't think we should even be thinking about cutting ties with...

So Freeney has lost a step or two (debatable) so he should be cut, but Manning coming off all the procedures he has had and who in all likelihood will have lost some MPH off his fastball should be kept because he works hard? Interesting.

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I don't know why some of us are said to be ignorant for wanting Manning to return and seeing positive signs that he will.

However I can speculate it may have something to do with not seeing the other signs that he won't?

Obviously I see them...but this thing can only go one way....

Either he IS back or he isnt...

And at this piont....since he could have been released 2 weeks ago ..and they're talking...

...doenst it look like he's back....?

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I don't know why some of us are said to be ignorant for wanting Manning to return and seeing positive signs that he will.

However I can speculate it may have something to do with not seeing the other signs that he won't?

No, I think we all see all the signs...even Irsay's mixed signals...

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No, I think we all see all the signs...even Irsay's mixed signals...

FYI, some of us interpreted Irsay's earlier signals correctly, as his later signals verified. :wave:

The signals only appeared mixed to those who dismissed the other interpretation of the earlier signals because they did not align with what they wanted reality to be.

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FYI, some of us interpreted Irsay's earlier signals correctly, as his later signals verified. :wave:

The signals only appeared mixed to those who dismissed the other interpretation of the earlier signals because they did not align with what they wanted reality to be.

You said that it was a done deal..he was gone...

werent you wrong?

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