RB production as a function of draft position

[krunk]

I saw some good things overall for the line, but that last Jax game didn't make me feel we were quite there yet.  I think we could use one more guy.

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, krunk said:

I'll check Boiles out.

I'd love to hear your take on him.

 

I've already pestered @Superman with a request for his opinion on Bolles and expect him to do a scouting report sometime during his prospects evaluations.

 

 

[Andrew Luck fan club]

9 minutes ago, krunk said:

I saw some good things overall for the line, but that last Jax game didn't make me feel we were quite there yet.  I think we could use one more guy.

Kevin Zeitler

[MPStack]

Although not popular with many, I`m all about Joe Mixon in the 3rd Rd for the Colts. That incident happened in 2014 and I seriously doubt he does it again. Low mileage and a lot of up-side.

 

[krunk]

15 minutes ago, 12to13 said:

Kevin Zeitler

Don't think Zeitler will be likely.  Bidding War and Colts don't do much of that.

[jseg18]

I like Conner from Pitt.

*

[akcolt]

The RB numbers are cherry picked. Why only go back 6 years? Because if you go back to the 2010 draft you include names like CJ Spiller Ryan Matthews Jhvad Best 2009 you get Donald Brown Beanie Wells, and Moreno back to 2008 add 5 more names to the list of 1st rounders that are going to drop that success rate even more. 

 

[stitches]

11 minutes ago, akcolt said:

The RB numbers are cherry picked. Why only go back 6 years? Because if you go back to the 2010 draft you include names like CJ Spiller Ryan Matthews Jhvad Best 2009 you get Donald Brown Beanie Wells, and Moreno back to 2008 add 5 more names to the list of 1st rounders that are going to drop that success rate even more. 

 

Not really... I swear I didn't cherry pick anything. I initially wanted to do last 5 drafts, but then had time to enter the numbers for one more draft and did it. I doubt those players from 2010 will make a huge difference for the overall picture.

[stitches]

Here's the stats with 2010 included:

 

Even in this draft the players selected in the first round are still the best RBs selected in the respective draft and the numbers overall hold pretty well...

 

Also it's worth pointing out that years closer to today are closer to what we can expect from RBs being drafted nowadays, because of changing styles in the league, so for example I'm not sure adding early 2000s years would be representative of what you can expect in 2017, although, I still expect the trend to hold even with those years included. 

[BOTT]

I think it's understood that superior talent is most often found it the early rounds.

 

Having said that, the numbers look nice, but if you look at the backs drafted in the first it becomes less impressive.   It's mostly a bunch of guys you wouldn't want to spend a 1st on.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

You can get a RB later but as the work shows ability level goes down per Rd. but 2nd to the 4th RD you might be able to get more value, if its a deep draft. Thanks for putting that work in!!

[Surge89]

I commend the statistics but you are missing the point as to why RB are not taken in the first.  

 

The biggest issue with taking a RB no matter the talent is the potential negative return on investment.  The shelf life of a back is too short to use that type of investment.  If the back does succeed you'll then have to decide if he is worth a second contract, knowing that most likely 2 or 3 years into that second contract most backs production starts to decline or injuries start piling.

 

The first round is not the round to pick up a RB in this meta of free agency. 

[stitches]

3 hours ago, Surge89 said:

I commend the statistics but you are missing the point as to why RB are not taken in the first.  

 

The biggest issue with taking a RB no matter the talent is the potential negative return on investment.  The shelf life of a back is too short to use that type of investment.  If the back does succeed you'll then have to decide if he is worth a second contract, knowing that most likely 2 or 3 years into that second contract most backs production starts to decline or injuries start piling.

 

The first round is not the round to pick up a RB in this meta of free agency. 

Of course drafting a RB early doesn't make him a good player... being a good player gets you drafted early. I'm not advocating drafting a RB in the first just to draft one in the first.

 

I largely agree with your post. I, too, think the return on investment when drafting a RB is usually smaller than on other positions that are hugely dependent on athleticism(pass rush, etc). I just wanted to point out that if you want a beast RB, drafting one early is still the best way to go. That of course says nothing about whether or not it's a good strategy overall and my guess would be other positions give much better return on investment than RB early in the draft.