Mock Offseason (pre-Combine)

[Traines]

This is a mix of what I would like to happen as well as some things I think are likely to happen.  The draft is obviously too far away to be very accurate, today's 2nd/3rd rounders could be next month’s 1st or 5th rounders depending on how the Combine, interviews, pro days, etc. play out.  Also, one roster cut/injury/etc. could change free agency, or vise versa.  So, here goes...

Approximate starting cap money before any moves are made ~$31 million

Cuts

Andre Johnson ($5 mil savings)

-I like AJ, but that money can be put to better use, and we can concentrate on getting Dorsett on the field.

Trent Cole ($6.125 mil savings)

-Pretty easy one here, performance does not (and likely will not ever again) justify current salary.

Arthur Jones ($2.3 mil savings)

-I know some on here will not agree with cutting him due to the low cap number, however, I think you have to consider what we have already invested as well as what he is due to receive in the future.  If we keep him, I'm ok with that, I think he has great potential to be a difference maker on our D...just can't stay on the field often enough.  I also like the idea of drafting a D lineman early in the draft.

Bjoern Werner ($1.5 mil savings)

-Meh, whatever.  If he stays, he stays, but the fact he was Inactive for some big games makes me think he is done.

D'Qwell Jackson ($5.25 mil savings)

-This one is kind of tough, I really think the Colts may keep him.  I like him and he had a really good year last year, however, he is a liability in coverage.  I think our current group, plus I have us re-signing Freeman, will be suffice...not ideal, but suffice for now. 

Summary:  With Andre leaving we be needing a replacement of some sort.  I would like to look at getting a bigger WR somewhere in the draft (Grigson tried another CFL guy recently) to combine with Hilton, Moncrief, Dorsett, and Bray (like his return ability, should improve as WR).  I think using our TEs right would make up for any size deficiency our WRs have, and I am not overly concerned about finding a 5th WR at this point.  It would be nice to replace Trent Cole with Noah Spence in the draft but I do not see him being there at 18.  We need to get some depth here somehow, hopefully in the draft, but either way paying Cole his currently salary is not worth keeping him.  Getting a pass rushing D-Lineman would also help our pass rush.  Art Jones leaving would be fine in this scenario as it is a seemingly deep draft for D-Line, and I have us taking one early.  Werner can be replaced in multiple ways for the same money or cheaper.  Assuming we move on from D'Qwell we will have; Freeman (re-signed), Nate Irving (if healthy I like his ability), Sio Moore (undecided, but need to see something soon), Herrera (unproven, like to see him work his way up through special teams and provide good depth).  As of now, a position of need, especially without D'Qwell.

Approximate cap money after Cuts ~$51 million

Re-Signs

Adam Vinatieri - 2 years / $5 mil

-Said he wanted to play a couple more years, Irsay said he wants to re-sign him, has not shown any drop off in performance yet.

Jerrell Freeman - 4 years / $26 mil

-I like Freeman, he's played well IMO, has been reasonably healthy, and I would take him in coverage over Jackson.  I would make this as cap-friendly as possible considering his age (turns 30 in May), and the fact that I see us getting younger at the position over the next couple of years...and also bringing in guys who can cover, which would be more in tune with the current league trend.

Colt Anderson - 1 year / $1 mil

-Special teams, safety depth, $1 mil

Coby Fleener - 4 years / $30 mil

-Honestly, I am a bigger fan of Allen.  I am not saying Fleener is bad, or anything like that, but I do think he is pretty average, maybe slightly above.  My main issue with him is his lack of physicality, or at the very least, the ability to out-muscle corners and safeties for extra yards.  Obviously, there are some other nitpicks, but that is a big one for me.  I know there is a huge divide among many of us in our opinions on these 2, and I am not trying to start another argument or debate on this subject.  Having said this, if you're wondering why I am keeping Fleener it is because I do not see Allen coming back (I think Arians will give him a shot), and I just truly feel like the Colts will want to keep him (no facts to back this feeling up)...and I think (hope) the Colts will find better ways to use Fleener moving forward.

It makes me puke in my mouth a little bit to think that we would be paying him $7mil +, but the recent signings of guys like Ertz and Kelce raised the price.  I would give him $4mil all day, but I'm trying to be as realistic as possible and if anything overshoot numbers.  I just don't think the Colts will let him walk for some reason...

Jack Doyle - 2 years  / $4 mil

-I really like Doyle, and think he would be a good player to keep on the roster, especially since his price tag should be low.  A few of you in other threads have said that he can do everything Dwayne Allen can (which I find to be fairly ridiculous, seeing a clear difference in talent level), however, he does have blocking ability as well as catch ability.  His best asset is that he has been healthy, D. Allen's biggest downfall IMO.

Dwight Lowery - 1 year / $1.5 mil

-Thought Lowery played quite well last year.  He is not a superstar, but he was more than worth his contract IMO.  He is somewhat expendable, but I would like to keep him around one more year while (spoiler alert) Karl Joseph comes into his own next season.

Billy Winn - 2 years / $2 mil

-Showed up on some plays last year, seemed to be worth keeping around for depth at the very least.

Approximate cap money after Re-signs ~$35 million (I may be off here because I am not great at this stuff, but I am assuming Fleener and Freeman would have bigger signing bonuses to offset some of the cap hit?)

Extensions

Andrew Luck - 6 years / $138 mil ($70 mil guaranteed)

Approximate cap money after Extension ~$39 million (structured similar to Cam's contract, decreasing the overall hit this season)

Free Agents*

Trumaine Johnson (CB) - 4 years / $38 mil

-I hope we get a good CB in Free Agency, although, there are some guys I like in the draft.  Tru is coming off of a good year (albeit a contact year), but he has the size (6'2 205 lbs.) and skills needed to be our CB2.  Playing opposite of Vontae would give us a pretty nasty pair of CBs IMO.  I think he will commanding at least what I have above (~9 mil a year), possibly a little more.  I also really like Sean Smith and Janoris Jenkins, however, I think Smith will be commanding about $12 mil and Jenkins will be who the Rams decide to re-sign (I doubt they'll re-sign both him and Tru considering their depth at CB).  I also kind of like Casey Hayward and could see the Colts going after him, however, from what I have read he played from the slot a lot last year.  He is supposedly going to test the market so we may give him a shot.  I would assume his contract would be similar to that of Tru's, maybe a little less.  One last note, this type of signing would allow D'joun Smith to maybe take D. Butler's spot sometime in camp, or mid-season....at the very least provide good depth....or maybe it would stunt his growth...

Alex Mack (C) - 4 years / $34 mil

**Assuming he opts out**

-Never thought I would think that signing a Center to such a contract would be worth it (and still am not sure how I feel about it), but this would secure the position for the next 4/5 years.  He'll be 34 years old going on 35 when he finished his 4 year contact.  This is a little older, but he is a proven player who would have immediate impact and presence from day 1.  I was big on Wisniewski earlier in the year (and last year), but 2 out of 3 games I watched of Jacksonville last season he had issues snapping the ball.

Many want to draft our Center of the future this year, however, I look at it like this.  Getting Mack will give us a known talent who has proven he can play at a high level in this league, much less of a risk than drafting a guy.  I do not believe there is a Travis Frederick type of guy in this years draft.  I think Kelly, Tuerk, Marting, etc. are talented, but I just do not think they are overwhelming talents that you can say for sure will be a quality day 1 starter for the Colts (obviously no one is a guarantee, I'm just saying they do not strike me as "sure-things").  Lets just lock up the position for 4/5 years and turn it from a need to a strength overnight.

Jeff Allen (RG) - 5 years / $33 mil

-I have been a Hugh Thornton supporter for a while, and I have not completely given up on him, however, he can certainly be upgraded.  Allen is young, played both Guard and Tackle for KC (only played RT due to injury I believe).  I read an article that said he wanted to play for someone ready to contend (we should be considered that IMO), and that he wanted to play for a team who would ask him to play one specific position so he could be completely focused going into the season.  I feel like those are reasonable requests and also requests that we could fulfill.  He had a season ending elbow injury in '14 and last year he sprained (no tear) his MCL in preseason, however, he came back after a few weeks and had a good season.  I think for around $6 mil a year we could have a quality RG...or RT...I prefer him at RG as of now.

You would be looking at the following for O-line (Left to Right); AC / Mewhort / Mack / Allen / Reitz (maybe Good if he comes along).  Not amazing, but pretty good IMO.  I think RT would be the only weakness, unless Reitz can repeat last year's performance...which would be big for this team.

Approximate cap money after Extension ~$20 million (contracts will be structured in a way that allows us to keep this amount of money...at least in my scenario)

We will use this ~$20 million for the following; RFA tenders ~$5 mil / Draft ~$7 mil / Rollover ~$8 mil

*Supe, or someone who is good with contact stuff, feel free to pick apart these contracts and make them more realistic if necessary.

Draft  (5 Rounds only)

Players I have being picked ahead of us (no particular order); Tunsil, Stanley, Wentz, Lynch, Goff, Ramsey, Hargreaves III, Alexander, Bosa, Buckner, Robinson, Lawson, Spence, Floyd, Jack, Ragland, Treadwell

Round 1, 18th overall - Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville (Alternates: Noah Spence - EDGE (trade up), Andrew Billings - NT/DT, Jaylon Smith -LB, Decker, Conklin - RT)

I want Spence here, but I do not see it happening unless we were willing to trade up...and I would rather not do that.  I would also be fine with trading this pick (18th overall) for a first and second this year (maybe add a 3rd rounder or future pick depending who our trade partner is), or a future 1st and 2nd this year...but it's too hard to predict trades and I really hate seeing them in most mocks.  Instead, we continue to strengthen our D-Line with a solid pick in Sheldon Rankins.  He may go before our pick, however, he is considered a bit undersized from what I have read, helping to push him down to us.  He is a riser, and had a great showing at the Senior Bowl.  Played in a 3-4 scheme in college, but also has experience in 4-3 giving him versatility and making him a great fit for us IMO.  I'm not too worried about his size as I think he will be perfect for our defense and will rotate immediately, giving us great depth.  He can defend the run and has had success as a pass rusher due to impressive quickness.  This pick makes Art Jones more expendable IMO.

There are so may really good DL guys this year.  You can look at this two ways I think; extra talent means you should be able to get great value in later rounds at this position, conversely you can snag one of the top guys early assuming other positions will have talented players dropped due to a saturated DL market.  It was tough to pass up on Jaylon here (huge ND fan and Smith fan), but I think we take an obvious talent who can come in immediately.  If we were to grab Smith here I would not be upset at all.  Billings is another guy I really like here.  Alexander (CB), A. Robinson (DT), Floyd (EDGE) are all guys who may be here that I like as well.

Round 2, 48th overall - Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia

-I really, really like this guy, and have for a couple of years.  He tore his ACL in early October 2015 in practice so he only played 4 games this past season (had 5 INTs by the way) so he falls to us in the 2nd.  Mayock currently has him ranked as his top Safety in the draft, but his injury and some risers at the position push him down, plus a saturated DL position in the draft.  He is known for his big hits, but he is more than that.  He has coverage abilities, he's playmaker (sacks, forced fumbles, INTs, big hits), and he seems to be a very high character guy earning lots of praise from those around him. Pairing him with Geathers (I see him having a big year next year) would give us a solid Safety duo for the next few years IMO.  I highly recommend Googling him and reading about and watching him.  Note:  This pick assumes his medicals check out.

Round 3, currently 82nd overall - Jordan Jenkins, LB, Georgia 

-Strong, with good size, and is said to be a tough player with a high football IQ.  Not a great pass rusher from the edge, but is not completely inept either.  We would be more interested in his abilities to set the edge, which he has proven to be quite good at.  Will be a nice backup behind Walden, and eventual successor.  He is not completely inept at rushing the passer, it is just not his strong point and also what makes him available in the 3rd round.

Round 4, currently pick 113 - C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame

-Former WR who has only 1 year experience at RB, people are going to hate this one for sure.  However, he played very well this year for ND and showed up against big competition.  He has good size (6'1, 220 lbs.), and proved to be tough to bring down.  Has good speed and can make guys miss, but my favorite part about him is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  It's still early and you can go a lot of ways here.  I personally really like Jonathan Williams from Arkansas, however, he'll likely go a round earlier than this IMO.  

Round 5 - Willie Beavers, OT, Western Michigan

-Has all of the physical tools just needs some refinement.  Played in the MAC, however, held his own against stronger competition (i.e. Michigan State).  Is an athletic guy and would be a great fit if we move to a ZBS.

Alright, it is finally over.  Sorry for such a long read.  Please feel free to s*** all over it, or like it, or meh it, or whatever.  Just throwing some ideas around as we await the upcoming offseason festivities...can’t wait for the Combine to get things really rolling!

[Traines]

Sorry about the format, it didn't copy over well.

[tvturner]

If Smith is on the board I want him, and I don't like Freeman's contract

[Clem-Dog]

14 minutes ago, Booker23 said:

If Smith is on the board I want him, and I don't like Freeman's contract

 

Same here on all accounts.  I hope Grigson doesn't overpay Freeman too.  I don't care what he did this past season, nothing can make me forget how horrible he was before then.  Typical contract year performance.

[UKColt13]

Only complaints I have are

 

. I like Rankins, but we have a decent Dline already with good depth. Plus this draft class is stacked to the rafters with talented Dlinemen so we don't have to take one in round 1 to get a good player. Just my opinion, but I'd rather have Jaylon Smith if he's available.

. I think you're over paying Freeman. 30 years old and the physical embodiment of the word 'okay'. I'm good with paying the guy but 6.5mil per is a little much.

 

I'm still not a fan of using 8mil per on a Centre going into his age 31 season. That's not on you though, I'm probably in the minority.

[Defjamz26]

I really don't get the idea of passing over Smith because he might not be available early. That doesn't matter. When he gets healthy he'll be great. 

[COLTS449]

We have to bring in a pass rusher...Or 2 pass rushers. If you're first rounder was Spence then that would be one heck of a offseason. Mack and Allen give us, not only a revamped and improved OL. But an elite, top 5 OL. Trumaine Johnson and Vontae would be a beastly duo at corner. And Karl Joseph would give us that ball hawking, hard hitting, centerfielder at safety that every great D needs.

[COLTS449]

If we add Alex Mack, Jeff Allen, Trumaine Johnson, Noah Spence, and Karl Joseph this offseason. Then. Just wow. 3 impact players added to the Defense. CB, FS, and OLB. And 2 star offensive lineman. Plus Procise, who I like would be a nice pick. I think he's going to be a feature back in the NFL. He and Gore splitting carries would give us a very good run game now that we would have a good OL finally. The only thing that could make bringing in those 5-6 players in this offseason, is trading a 2017 4th or 5th to the Eagles for Kiko Alonso.

[weslo1812]

I don't wanna sound like a Debbie downer here but its kinda funny how people just tend to automatically assume that because we sign a good O linemen or two and maybe draft one that all the Sudden our Offensiveline will be good and the problems are all gone. That's not really the case. Those guys number 1 have to stay healthy which tends not to happen with the Colts. But we do have a new strength coach so hopefully that changes. Then those players have to come execute on the field which is no guarentee. Good or great performance on a past team or back in College doesn't guarentee they will perform great or even good with the Colts. I would just caution people to be aware of the other factors that play into it. It's not just as simple as we sign and or,draft another G,C and T and our problems up front are gone.

[Traines]

14 hours ago, weslo1812 said:

I don't wanna sound like a Debbie downer here but its kinda funny how people just tend to automatically assume that because we sign a good O linemen or two and maybe draft one that all the Sudden our Offensiveline will be good and the problems are all gone. That's not really the case. Those guys number 1 have to stay healthy which tends not to happen with the Colts. But we do have a new strength coach so hopefully that changes. Then those players have to come execute on the field which is no guarentee. Good or great performance on a past team or back in College doesn't guarentee they will perform great or even good with the Colts. I would just caution people to be aware of the other factors that play into it. It's not just as simple as we sign and or,draft another G,C and T and our problems up front are gone.

The logic behind the moves is that we're bringing in veteran (proven) players to fill some positions of need, or at the very least positions that have been needing an upgrade for a few seasons IMO...and positions that affect the health of our franchise QB, improved run game, etc..  There are not that may guys in FA I want to go after (assuming Von Miller and some other studs aren't tagged or extended), therefore, I use our money to bolster the O-Line.  Getting these guys in FA allows us to immediately improve the talent along the OL (Mack > Holmes/Harrison, and Allen > Thornton IMO) as well as give us even more flexibility in the draft.  In this scenario we are bringing in a pro bowl Center and a young, talented RG.  If you want to complain about the contracts that is one thing, but what you are basically saying is we shouldn't sign or draft anyone because nothing is guaranteed; 1.)  Players have to stay healthy (so the Colts shouldn't sign anyone because they may get injured?)  2.) Guys may just decide not to play well, or under-perform (it can happen, but that is why you get guys who have historically been productive and have good attitudes).  By your logic we wouldn't ever bring in anyone at any position because they may get injured, or not play as well as they have in the past.  Everyone on here knows that there is no guarantee.  Maybe you're just cautioning those who tend to get a little over-excited this time of year, but it seems pointless to say that guys we sign/draft may get injured or not play as well so don't get your hopes up...

[Traines]

18 hours ago, Booker23 said:

If Smith is on the board I want him, and I don't like Freeman's contract

I love Smith so I would not be disappointed if we grabbed him with this pick.  Drafting him would probably mean no Freeman for me, just let D'Qwell finish out his contract alongside Irving/Moore.

 

18 hours ago, Clem-Dog said:

 

Same here on all accounts.  I hope Grigson doesn't overpay Freeman too.  I don't care what he did this past season, nothing can make me forget how horrible he was before then.  Typical contract year performance.

Not arguing that Freeman is overpaid in this scenario, but he's been good 3 out of 4 years, I don't want to act like last year was his only good year.

[Traines]

18 hours ago, UKColt13 said:

Only complaints I have are

 

. I like Rankins, but we have a decent Dline already with good depth. Plus this draft class is stacked to the rafters with talented Dlinemen so we don't have to take one in round 1 to get a good player. Just my opinion, but I'd rather have Jaylon Smith if he's available.

. I think you're over paying Freeman. 30 years old and the physical embodiment of the word 'okay'. I'm good with paying the guy but 6.5mil per is a little much.

 

I'm still not a fan of using 8mil per on a Centre going into his age 31 season. That's not on you though, I'm probably in the minority.

I agree that the D-Line was much improved last year and I really like the guys we have, however, I think people are overrating the position group a lot.  We were stacked at WR last year too, and then all of a sudden we weren't.   I cannot disagree about Jaylon though, I am a huge fan and would not be disappointed to see him in a Colts uniform.

 

As for Freeman's contract, I would agree that he is overpaid.  My thoughts were that he would not have a lot of guaranteed money so he would be able to be cut in a couple of years when we get younger and he gets older.

 

$8 mil on a Center is ridiculous, but this is Free Agency.  The way I look at it right now is this; we can try Holmes/Harrison again, draft a young guy and hope he can come right in and start, or grab a pro bowl caliber player who should have no problem putting in a solid 3-4 years.  IMO there are not that many great C's in FA this year outside of Mack, and there is not a Travis Frederick in the draft.  I like Kelly, Martin, etc., but they don't blow me away...we have the money, we have a need, lets go ahead and fill the position with a pro bowl talent.

[Traines]

17 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I really don't get the idea of passing over Smith because he might not be available early. That doesn't matter. When he gets healthy he'll be great. 

It does matter, and for a couple of reasons.  One, there is no guarantee he will play at all next year...and yes, I realize his rehab is ahead of schedule.  Two, as much as I love Smith and think he will be a solid player, there is a lot of talented guys that may be there at pick 18 that can come in right away and make this team better.  Having said that, I love Smith and will not be disappointed if we take him.

[Traines]

16 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

If you're first rounder was Spence then that would be one heck of a offseason.

I hope he is there!!