FA: Big Names, Values, and Reaches

[schwamm]

There has been considerable discussion on this forum about a bunch of big name players (especially wide receivers), and considerable speculation on how Grigson and the Colts are going to spend their CAP surplus.

I realize every opinion has merit, and totally agree with anyone who has suggested that there is no harm and a great deal of entertainment in dreaming and discussing possible FA candidates.

That said, YOU ARE ALL WRONG... at least if I were the Colts GM.

I would be looking at FA options with an eye for value. That means not just what I pay relative to what some other team might be willing to pay.

The problems with overpaying can be multi-faceted, regardless of how big the name. That big contract often comes at a player's peak, and they can often fall short of expectations thereafter. That big contract can cost a team the ability to improve in other areas. That big contract can bite back later if the player flops and the team has to take a hit against later years.

Often enough, there are gems that don't demand "big name" money, who can sometimes end up outperforming the big name, or at least don't represent that much of a talent drop off. For example: if Dwayne Bowe can command a contract for $10M+ a year with this next contract, but statistically only ends up outperforming an up and comer like Lavon Brazill by, say, 10%... Is that difference worth it to our team for the extra $9.5M+ a year he'll cost? I'd guess that in some cases it is, and others not so much.

The fact that these guys are available often leads me to the question: if they are so valuable to the team they are on, why are they being allowed to test free agency? People will pull out the CAP heck card here... sure, I get it, but good teams usually find ways to keep their best players for as long as they are still getting good value from them.

I'd be far more interested in trying to find guys who've done well in limited opportunities, but have been stuck behind a superstar, and the team they're on can't free up a starting spot for them. I'd try to sniff out some older guys who've been put out to pasture, can be had at reasonable cost, but still have passion and are fit. I'd be calling guys I know have performed to a high level in the past, but a drop off in play can easily be attributed to change in scheme, surrounding talent, coaching, or whatever. I'd look for the guy who has been underappreciated because he isn't big into self-promotion, and has remained somewhat in obscurity.

"But $46M"...

I'd rather see decent upgrades at multiple positions than significant upgrade in one or two. It would make for a more balanced team, and not cause as much harm if the FA acquisition(s) doesn't pan out.

If it was me, I'd focus big time on OLine, going after Gosder Cherilus, Ramon Forter, and Donald Thomas. All would provide significant upgrades at their positions, and would lay the foundation for a very solid line.

Then I'd work on the D backfield, adding Nmamdi Asamogha and Dashon Goldson. With Bethea and David, we'd have a pretty reliable group of starters.

If, and only if, the situation presented itself and it made sense for the scheme... I'd also look really hard at Ramses Barden. He is a big WR who has shown he can play the pro game, albeit in very limited opportunities.

After that, I'd go into the draft looking to go heavy D... or is that Tenacious D...?

Sorry for the rant, but I just had to correct y'all.

[BOTT]

TL;DR

[Nobody]

"That said, YOU ARE ALL WRONG... at least if I were the Colts GM. "

There is only so many small free agents you can sign. We aren't wrong, we aren't signing 20 guys for 2 mil each.

I know it makes people feel smart to say "we won't sign any big names" but in reality we HAVE to sign some big-ish names to get under the correct cap #.

"I'd rather see decent upgrades at multiple positions than significant upgrade in one or two."

You really think 46 million with a big name agenda will only get 2 guys? Try again.

I didn't read your whole post, it's too long, so maybe you addressed what I said.

TL;DR- YOU ARE WRONG

[Stoney]

Couldnt agree more with you.. Everyone has to put into consideration here in about 3 years when all of our rookies of last year are ready for their new huge contracts. I do think tho that we should sign atleast one "big name" olineman like a Vasquez and the rest just let grigson do his thing. i think we should leave the Dbacks as is and sign Paul Kruger instead to replace freeney..him over spencer becuase age. And then for the draft i think we should make a move on either Xavier Rhodes or Johnthan Banks if hes still there..then in the 3rd round you can either go SS, OLB, or OL. If all those moves get done i can see us playing for the superbowl again in 2 years.

[NewColtsFan]

I'm someone who has said I don't think we'll sign big names.....    but, to be clear,  the full comment was we won't sign guys who want $10+ MIll per year....

 

I think we'll sign a number of players that everyone here knows....    but we'll pay them somewhere in the range of $5-8 Mill each on a yearly basis....

 

I think we'll be major players in Free Agency....    just not in the way some fans are predicting...   with the Bowe's, Wallaces's, Long's of the world....     I don't see us going after those type of guys....    

 

Hope that clarifies...

[wig]

You call other people out about overpaying someone who is past their prime and then say you want to add Asomugha? Ok. . .

[Balzer40]

"That said, YOU ARE ALL WRONG... at least if I were the Colts GM. "

There is only so many small free agents you can sign. We aren't wrong, we aren't signing 20 guys for 2 mil each.

I know it makes people feel smart to say "we won't sign any big names" but in reality we HAVE to sign some big-ish names to get under the correct cap #.

"I'd rather see decent upgrades at multiple positions than significant upgrade in one or two."

You really think 46 million with a big name agenda will only get 2 guys? Try again.

I didn't read your whole post, it's too long, so maybe you addressed what I said.

TL;DR- YOU ARE WRONG

 

 

I know it makes people feel smart to say this but the truth of the matter is......there is no magic number the Colts need to reach to get to a correct cap #. The 89% cap rule pertains to a 4 yr. period and not each yr..

[Nobody]

I know it makes people feel smart to say this but the truth of the matter is......there is no magic number the Colts need to reach to get to a correct cap #. The 89% cap rule pertains to a 4 yr. period and not each yr..

I stand corrected. My point still stands, there's no way we leave 20 million or something crazy unspent.

[Balzer40]

I stand corrected. My point still stands, there's no way we leave 20 million or something crazy unspent.

 

 

I agree with you 100%. I've seen other's say we'll leave a huge amount in the tank for later use and that is exactly how bad teams operate. The Colts aren't a bad team though.

 

Just messing with ya in the earlier post BTW.

[Carlos Danger]

I generally agree with the sentiment, but....

 

Nmamdi and Goldson would both have what I would consider "big contracts."

 

I think what you might be saying is that you don't want to break the bank on the O-Line and that the money would be well spent in the secondary?

 

I do like the idea of grabbing some affordable upgrades, but I won't wag my finger at a bigger contract at OT, G, or corner.. I don't think Grigs is going to target 10mil.+ guys in bunches and he shouldn't, but some guys (Goldson, Levitre among others) are actually likely to perform up to their contract demands, especially considering that teams have what 1 or 2 seasons before the cap increases?...

 

You need veterans on any successful team, but younger guys represent a higher potential value. I'm not against picking up some old timers on short, cheap contracts as stop gaps, but I don't want to pay Ed Reed (for example) based on his legacy.. The guy needs to be able to play.. We have veteran leadership on this team as it is.. we shouldn't overpay for more.

 

I'd love to pay for a guy like Byrd if he came available... Maybe Jake Long will take a pay cut amidst the concerns about his health and after 2 substandard seasons... you never know how things will turn out, but I will take comfort in the knowledge that we will be fielding a much more complete (and mature) team next season either way.

[The Peytonator]

I agree with everything you said except the Asomugha/Goldson signings. They will both get paid a lot of money this offseason. If Nnamdi can be had for 7 mil I'd be okay with it though. I know he had a couple bad years, but I don't think you can just forget how to play press coverage.

 

My list;

RT - Gosder Cherilus

OG - Geoff Schwartz

OG - Donald Thomas

DE - Desmond Bryant

OLB - Michael Bennett/Anthony Spencer (wouldn't mind giving him a nice contract)

CB - Greg Toler

S - Kenny Phillips

[BOTT]

Not sure why people think Nmambi is going to cost $$....he is 32 and coming off 2 poor seasons. He won't be dirt cheap, but I don't think he is going to command big money

[schwamm]

I generally agree with the sentiment, but....

 

Nmamdi and Goldson would both have what I would consider "big contracts."

 

I think what you might be saying is that you don't want to break the bank on the O-Line and that the money would be well spent in the secondary?

 

I do like the idea of grabbing some affordable upgrades, but I won't wag my finger at a bigger contract at OT, G, or corner.. I don't think Grigs is going to target 10mil.+ guys in bunches and he shouldn't, but some guys (Goldson, Levitre among others) are actually likely to perform up to their contract demands, especially considering that teams have what 1 or 2 seasons before the cap increases?...

 

You need veterans on any successful team, but younger guys represent a higher potential value. I'm not against picking up some old timers on short, cheap contracts as stop gaps, but I don't want to pay Ed Reed (for example) based on his legacy.. The guy needs to be able to play.. We have veteran leadership on this team as it is.. we shouldn't overpay for more.

 

I'd love to pay for a guy like Byrd if he came available... Maybe Jake Long will take a pay cut amidst the concerns about his health and after 2 substandard seasons... you never know how things will turn out, but I will take comfort in the knowledge that we will be fielding a much more complete (and mature) team next season either way.

 

Not sure why people think Nmambi is going to cost $$....he is 32 and coming off 2 poor seasons. He won't be dirt cheap, but I don't think he is going to command big money

Yeah, I don't think Nmamdi will command a big salary. I'm also not convinced we couldn't also get Goldson for a modest contract compared to the likes of the oft mentioned Bowe, Wallace, Long, Bushrod, etc..  Big for the safety position, maybe, but not outrageous. 

 

I also still think Goldson would be a value aquisition.

[schwamm]

TL;DR

Didn't realize this was a twitter forum for the ADHD impaired. 

[AntonMcG]

Couldnt agree more with you.. Everyone has to put into consideration here in about 3 years when all of our rookies of last year are ready for their new huge contracts. I do think tho that we should sign atleast one "big name" olineman like a Vasquez and the rest just let grigson do his thing. i think we should leave the Dbacks as is and sign Paul Kruger instead to replace freeney..him over spencer becuase age. And then for the draft i think we should make a move on either Xavier Rhodes or Johnthan Banks if hes still there..then in the 3rd round you can either go SS, OLB, or OL. If all those moves get done i can see us playing for the superbowl again in 2 years.

 

Are you basing Vasquez being a big name based on his name being dropped continually in this forum? Because in the wider media, he is in no way considered a big name or advertised as a top FA Guard.

[BOTT]

Didn't realize this was a twitter forum for the ADHD impaired. 

I'm just that lazy

[schwamm]

"That said, YOU ARE ALL WRONG... at least if I were the Colts GM. "

There is only so many small free agents you can sign. We aren't wrong, we aren't signing 20 guys for 2 mil each.

I know it makes people feel smart to say "we won't sign any big names" but in reality we HAVE to sign some big-ish names to get under the correct cap #.

"I'd rather see decent upgrades at multiple positions than significant upgrade in one or two."

You really think 46 million with a big name agenda will only get 2 guys? Try again.

I didn't read your whole post, it's too long, so maybe you addressed what I said.

TL;DR- YOU ARE WRONG

By all accounts I've seen, with $45M ish total to spend, we're probably looking at something in the $20-$25M range for FAs. I definitely think that takes us out of the Bowe, Wallace, Long, Clady, Bushrod, now maybe Jennings, etc. discussions if we want to address more than a couple positions.

Sorry my OP went long. I get a little tired of the quippy posts with no reasoning to support them. I'll allow that I went to far the other direction, tho.

[Mr. Blue]

I agree with everything you said except the Asomugha/Goldson signings. They will both get paid a lot of money this offseason. If Nnamdi can be had for 7 mil I'd be okay with it though. I know he had a couple bad years, but I don't think you can just forget how to play press coverage.

 

My list;

RT - Gosder Cherilus

OG - Geoff Schwartz

OG - Donald Thomas

DE - Desmond Bryant

OLB - Michael Bennett/Anthony Spencer (wouldn't mind giving him a nice contract)

CB - Greg Toler

S - Kenny Phillips

 

Frankly, i really like this list. It has maybe 1 or 2 big names, but mainly wants to build and stack at a mroe middle-class that can contribute level

[Dustin]

I agree with everything you said except the Asomugha/Goldson signings. They will both get paid a lot of money this offseason. If Nnamdi can be had for 7 mil I'd be okay with it though. I know he had a couple bad years, but I don't think you can just forget how to play press coverage.

 

My list;

RT - Gosder Cherilus

OG - Geoff Schwartz

OG - Donald Thomas

DE - Desmond Bryant

OLB - Michael Bennett/Anthony Spencer (wouldn't mind giving him a nice contract)

CB - Greg Toler

S - Kenny Phillips

 

Didn't Kenny Phillips break his knee? Too risky of a signing IMO.

[NewColtsFan]

I agree with you 100%. I've seen other's say we'll leave a huge amount in the tank for later use and that is exactly how bad teams operate. The Colts aren't a bad team though.

 

Just messing with ya in the earlier post BTW.

 

I think we'll spend most, but not all of our available money....

 

One thing people need to remember,  our great 2012 class is going to be able to be extended after the 2014 season.   So, we've got to have money for that.    And the rumor the NFL has been floating is that they don't project the salary cap to go up much over the next few years.    In short,  there won't be a lot more money to spend in the near future.   The cap will remain somewhat flat.

 

So, we'll need money for Luck and company pretty soon.   So, I think we'll leave a few bucks in our pockets.   Perhaps not a lot, but some.

 

Just my hunch,  but I don't think it's a ridiculous guess.....

[BOTT]

I think we'll spend most, but not all of our available money....

 

One thing people need to remember,  our great 2012 class is going to be able to be extended after the 2014 season.   So, we've got to have money for that.    And the rumor the NFL has been floating is that they don't project the salary cap to go up much over the next few years.    In short,  there won't be a lot more money to spend in the near future.   The cap will remain somewhat flat.

 

So, we'll need money for Luck and company pretty soon.   So, I think we'll leave a few bucks in our pockets.   Perhaps not a lot, but some.

 

Just my hunch,  but I don't think it's a ridiculous guess.....

True, but Reggie, redding, and Mathis will all probably retire by that time...and who knows if a guy like bethea will still be around