Scout's notebook warning on needy teams

[horseshoecrabs]

I had not been knowledgeable of Bucky Brooks incite until I read his post on " A warning to QB needy teams"  It is  a great post on the FA and draft prospective on teams. I highly recommend it reading on any level of your perspicacity of  knowledge. If you are a student of the game it gives great incite into  the scouting incite of the game. It covers drafting for need vs best players available and the most common mistakes that are made in the draft from the past . Fa frenzy and more . I'm not sure what the link is off hand. I only saw it on my Moto Z phone android as NFL mobile under "scout's notebook"  A warning to QB-needy teams: Allen,Mayfield should not be top-10 picks". If you can find it please take the time and read it and then make your post as to what you got out of this, It made me see things in a different perspective, not based on just emotion.

 

[Bshultz]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000922784/article/stop-overdrafting-quarterbacks-plus-jpp-trade-fallout-and-more

[Reboot]

I agree with his take, especially in this draft.  The best prospect had 22 turnovers during the season.  That’s horrible.  Rosen is somewhere between self involved and aloof, claiming amongst his regrets while at UCLA that he didn’t become a role model for all Hollywood Jews.   That’s one heck of a sense of yourself.  Allen can’t compete 56% of his passes in the Mountain West, which compares far more to Leaf and Jamarcus Russell than to Wentz.  And in Mayfield we have another in a long line of complete hit or miss undersized exciting gun slinging types who sometimes have mouths writing checks their play can’t cash.  

 

I think this QB class is a mess.  And I’m really glad the Colts aren’t in need. 

 

The other thing that seems to support this is all of the teams at the top have either added a QB or have pubically supported their existing QBs.  If that doesn’t show that the teams have their doubts too, I don’t know what else would.   

[Trueman]

Thanks, that was a good read. Unfortunately, as Bucky well knows,an above average QB can make all the difference and it causes teams to do crazy things.

 

I agree with taking BPA for the most part, I just feel if that BPA doesn’t really help your team , you should move down or explore other options.

 

For instance , when Polian took Jerry Hughes and Donald Brown in the 1st round , not only did he miss on the correct “BPA” , he took players in positions we didn’t really need help in. Brown was behind Addai , and we easily could’ve found a bargain free agent for that role , and Hughes was buried behind Freeney and Mathis. It didn’t really help a team with a prime Peyton.

 

And Polian, being as dependent on the draft as he was, should have moved down rather than take players in those positions, or used the picks as trade capital (see Patriots for Cooks) . Those two players really didn’t help move the needle at all. So not only was the result undesirable, but the process was flawed.

 

So I agree with Bucky in that when you start evaluating players based on need , your evaluation can become tainted. But, I also feel being so supremely rigid on BPA can also hurt common sense. There has to be a marriage between the two - even just slightly. 

 

If I have 3 stud Wr’s and a gaping hole at DT , and I pretty much only use the draft to create my roster , why would I take a B+ recieiver over a “B” DT?

 

Surely, a really good evaluator can realize when he’s becoming too focused on need, and conversely, surely he can realize when he’s being too rigid in his BPA philosophy to the point of being impractical.

 

 

[WoolMagnet]

5 hours ago, Trueman said:

Thanks, that was a good read. Unfortunately, as Bucky well knows,an above average QB can make all the difference and it causes teams to do crazy things.

 

I agree with taking BPA for the most part, I just feel if that BPA doesn’t really help your team , you should move down or explore other options.

 

For instance , when Polian took Jerry Hughes and Donald Brown in the 1st round , not only did he miss on the correct “BPA” , he took players in positions we didn’t really need help in. Brown was behind Addai , and we easily could’ve found a bargain free agent for that role , and Hughes was buried behind Freeney and Mathis. It didn’t really help a team with a prime Peyton.

 

And Polian, being as dependent on the draft as he was, should have moved down rather than take players in those positions, or used the picks as trade capital (see Patriots for Cooks) . Those two players really didn’t help move the needle at all. So not only was the result undesirable, but the process was flawed.

 

So I agree with Bucky in that when you start evaluating players based on need , your evaluation can become tainted. But, I also feel being so supremely rigid on BPA can also hurt common sense. There has to be a marriage between the two - even just slightly. 

 

If I have 3 stud Wr’s and a gaping hole at DT , and I pretty much only use the draft to create my roster , why would I take a B+ recieiver over a “B” DT?

 

Surely, a really good evaluator can realize when he’s becoming too focused on need, and conversely, surely he can realize when he’s being too rigid in his BPA philosophy to the point of being impractical.

 

 

True man

[NewColtsFan]

 

I appreciate that Bucky Brooks doesn't think either Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield should be top-10 picks.    I'd respectfully disagree,  but that's not important.

 

But I think it IS important to note,  that in ths latest mock of his,  he also has Lamar Jackson going in the first, and I'm not a fan.    He has WR DJ Moore going ahead of Calvin Ridley.    He also has OT Orlando Brown going mid-way in the first round.    

 

So, I think Bucky makes a lot of highly questionable projections.

 

There's a rason why some people scout and others are GM's.    And not every scout can be a GM.      Water rises to its own level.......

 

Just saying....

 

[throwing BBZ]

17 hours ago, Trueman said:

Thanks, that was a good read. Unfortunately, as Bucky well knows,an above average QB can make all the difference and it causes teams to do crazy things.

 

I agree with taking BPA for the most part, I just feel if that BPA doesn’t really help your team , you should move down or explore other options.

 

For instance , when Polian took Jerry Hughes and Donald Brown in the 1st round , not only did he miss on the correct “BPA” , he took players in positions we didn’t really need help in. Brown was behind Addai , and we easily could’ve found a bargain free agent for that role , and Hughes was buried behind Freeney and Mathis. It didn’t really help a team with a prime Peyton.

 

And Polian, being as dependent on the draft as he was, should have moved down rather than take players in those positions, or used the picks as trade capital (see Patriots for Cooks) . Those two players really didn’t help move the needle at all. So not only was the result undesirable, but the process was flawed.

 

So I agree with Bucky in that when you start evaluating players based on need , your evaluation can become tainted. But, I also feel being so supremely rigid on BPA can also hurt common sense. There has to be a marriage between the two - even just slightly. 

 

If I have 3 stud Wr’s and a gaping hole at DT , and I pretty much only use the draft to create my roster , why would I take a B+ recieiver over a “B” DT?

 

Surely, a really good evaluator can realize when he’s becoming too focused on need, and conversely, surely he can realize when he’s being too rigid in his BPA philosophy to the point of being impractical.

 

 

Your memory is way off. We did need help at RB and a lack of pass rush had been a big problem even with Freeney and Mathis. You clearly have no memory of how bad their backups were when they needed a blow or were injured. Hughes proved he had ability and Brown proved he was just a role player.

[Trueman]

4 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

Your memory is way off. We did need help at RB and a lack of pass rush had been a big problem even with Freeney and Mathis. You clearly have no memory of how bad their backups were when they needed a blow or were injured. Hughes proved he had ability and Brown proved he was just a role player.

 

No, my memory is fine. 

 

Needing help , and investing 1st round picks is not the same. 

 

You can get RB’s anywhere, and Hughes barely played. If that’s how you feel 1st round picks should be used, fine.

 

2010:  Hughes, 12 games played , 0 starts, 0 sacks 

           Freeney, 16 games played ,16 starts, 10 sacks

           Mathis, 16 games played, 16 starts, 11 sacks

 

2011: Hughes, 12 games played, 1 start, 1 sack

         Freeney, 16 games played, 15 starts, 8.5 sacks

         Mathis, 16 game played , 15 starts, 9.5 sacks

 

Polian gets fired, Pagano brings in 3-4 scheme. Let’s see if Jerry can get on the field now.

 

2012: Hughes, 16 games played, 6 starts, 4 sacks

          Freeney, 14 games played, 14 starts, 5 sacks

          Mathis, 12 games played, 12 starts, 8 sacks.

 

So , in 3 years, Hughes started 7 games out of 40 , and amassed 5 sacks.  And you want to tell me we shouldn’t/couldn’t  have found a backup DE without using a 1st round pick?! 

 

We had two productive, elite DE’s under contract for years to come , and you’re fine with this rationale? Peyton was 34 years old when Polian took Hughes. Our window was closing rapidly, and we used a valuable resource for a player to play behind two extremely good DE’s. 

 

2010 defence:

 

RE : Freeney

DT: Moala

DT: Muir

LE: Mathis

OLB : Conner/Wheeler

MLB: Brackett 

OLB: Angerer/Sessions

CB: Hayden 

FS : Bethea 

SS: Francisco (Sanders on IR , to be expected)

CB: Powers/Lacey

 

Does this unit need a 1st round DE to sit on the bench for 3 years? 

 

Upgrades or depth at DT , SS , LB , CB seem the most obvious.

 

2010 Offensive Line

 

LT: Charlie Johnson /Reitz

LG: Pollack

C: Saturday

RG: Richard/Thomas

RT: Diem

 

Does this unit need a 1st round DE? 3 pretty big holes at LT,LG,RG ..no? Or at the very least positions that could use upgrades.

 

Again, Peyton was 34 years old. 34! And you want to tell me there wasn’t better options than selecting Hughes?

 

Let’s take a look at players Polian could’ve traded down for in positions of need :

 

DT: Lival Joseph, Earl Mitchell, Corey Peters, Geno Atkins 

SS: Nate Allen, T.J Ward, Morgan Burnett, Darell Stuckey, Major Wright 

LB: Koa Misi, Daryl Washington, Sean Lee, Brandon Spikes, Donald Butler, NaVorro Bowman

CB: Patrick Robinson

LT/RT: Roger Saffold, Vlad Ducasse, Jared Veldheer, John Jerry

G: Zane Beadles, Jon Asamoah, Shawn Lauvao

 

All of these players , with the exception of Geno Atkins , were 2nd or 3rd round picks. That’s 22 players in the next two rounds after Hughes was taken that would’ve addressed areas of actual need. I didn’t include other players like Gronk, Lamar Houston, Carlos Dunlap , Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker ,  Golden Tate, Jimmy Graham , because, although you could argue they’re better players, they didn’t help address a need at the time. Polian just flat out missed on his BPA assessment, but that happens ,and it’s not what I’m highlighting. 

 

So, you could then argue the draft is a crap shoot and every GM misses. Fine , I agree with to an extent, but again, I’m not just talking about Polian missing on drafting the “BPA” , I’m talking about the best way to use a 1st round pick as an asset.

 

It’s not just the result that was a mistake, but the process as well. We simply should not have used a late 1st on a DE. Trading down, or trading the pick for a position of need was the smarter play. Especially with a 34 year old Peyton.

 

—————————

 

As for Donald Brown, using a 1st round pick on a RB for the 2nd time in four drafts, is just insane. Our team was littered with holes/lack of depth , we 100% should have traded down or traded the pick for a NFL player.

 

But again, Polian selected another skill position in the 1st round , and again, he wasn’t as good as Addai.Acquiring a backup/rotation/capable starter RB is literally the easiest position to fill in football. We already had Addai!

 

That is not the best use of that valuable asset. And it again exemplified just how dogmatic Polian was to the process. There was no balance or “marriage” between common sense and his philosophy.

 

Look at how many picks/trades/signings Belichick maneuvered to actually use his assets correctly and address needs in those two drafts. Just do it.

 

Or, tell me we “needed help at DE and RB” again. We needed it so badly that using 1st round picks (one of the most valuable trade pieces/assets  in the NFL) actually made sense.

 

Give me a break.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Surge89]

8 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I appreciate that Bucky Brooks doesn't think either Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield should be top-10 picks.    I'd respectfully disagree,  but that's not important.

 

But I think it IS important to note,  that in ths latest mock of his,  he also has Lamar Jackson going in the first, and I'm not a fan.    He has WR DJ Moore going ahead of Calvin Ridley.    He also has OT Orlando Brown going mid-way in the first round.    

 

So, I think Bucky makes a lot of highly questionable projections.

 

There's a rason why some people scout and others are GM's.    And not every scout can be a GM.      Water rises to its own level.......

 

Just saying....

 

 

Please explain to me why you are not a fan of Lamar Jackson in the first but question his legitimacy by claiming you don't agree with Josh Allen not being a top 10 pick?  What makes Allen better than Jackson honestly?

[NewColtsFan]

28 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

Please explain to me why you are not a fan of Lamar Jackson in the first but question his legitimacy by claiming you don't agree with Josh Allen not being a top 10 pick?  What makes Allen better than Jackson honestly?

 

The spread system that Jackson was in does not prepare a quarterback for the NFL.    He's not going to be able to read NFL level defenses.    Plus running outside the pocket is a big part of his game.   When he does that in the NFL he'll get killed.   

 

When I see Jackson, I do NOT see DaShawn Watson.   At all.

 

Allen has been talked about as a candidate for the first overall pick.   The owner was just at his pro day.    If you can be considered at pick one or pick four, then you can be considered in the top-10.

 

I'm NOT a big Allen fan, but he's got traits that no other QB in this class has.  Body...   arm...   and enough athletic skill to help his game rather than hurt his game.   He comes from a more pro ready offense.   

 

Those are the Allen arguments and the ones for Jackson.   

[TomDiggs]

46 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The spread system that Jackson was in does not prepare a quarterback for the NFL.    He's not going to be able to read NFL level defenses.    Plus running outside the pocket is a big part of his game.   When he does that in the NFL he'll get killed.   

 

When I see Jackson, I do NOT see DaShawn Watson.   At all.

 

Allen has been talked about as a candidate for the first overall pick.   The owner was just at his pro day.    If you can be considered at pick one or pick four, then you can be considered in the top-10.

 

I'm NOT a big Allen fan, but he's got traits that no other QB in this class has.  Body...   arm...   and enough athletic skill to help his game rather than hurt his game.   He comes from a more pro ready offense.   

 

Those are the Allen arguments and the ones for Jackson.   

 

Agreed

 

And if you see the progression Allen has made just in a short amount of time working w Palmer, his measurables make you salivate.

 

His footwork is already a lot better than it was months ago.

 

I think it is crazy to consider him not being a top-10 pick.

 

I think he is a top-5 guy and will help knock some options down to us.

 

I would loooooove it if he were on the board at 6.

 

Even though that might mean we would have missed on our 3 top non-QB choices in Chubb, Nelson and Barkley, it would create a huge market for teams competing to trade up for Allen and net us a nice haul.

 

 

 

[Surge89]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The spread system that Jackson was in does not prepare a quarterback for the NFL.    He's not going to be able to read NFL level defenses.    Plus running outside the pocket is a big part of his game.   When he does that in the NFL he'll get killed.   

 

When I see Jackson, I do NOT see DaShawn Watson.   At all.

 

Allen has been talked about as a candidate for the first overall pick.   The owner was just at his pro day.    If you can be considered at pick one or pick four, then you can be considered in the top-10.

 

I'm NOT a big Allen fan, but he's got traits that no other QB in this class has.  Body...   arm...   and enough athletic skill to help his game rather than hurt his game.   He comes from a more pro ready offense.   

 

Those are the Allen arguments and the ones for Jackson.   

 

I agree on your point that the spread doesn't favor Jackson to a degree.  But I completely disagree with your argument about running outside the pocket. He ran predominantly on designed runs.  If it was a throwing call he rarely ever left the pocket for a run.  He may not be Watson (which I agree with) but this notion that he's like RG3 and he's going to take off every down is faulty at best.  

 

I have plenty of issues with Allen.  Number one he often can't hit the side of a barn if the barn was 20 yards in front of him during a game.  He can look all pretty on drills but when it comes to film it's awful to watch.  People are enamored with his skill set yet aren't enamored with a similar explosive skill set in Jackson with better production and better accuracy and to me that is just baffling. 

 

I get that Allen is considered a first round pick.  I also agree that he should be.  First overall? To me that is a huge stretch. But what bothers me the most is that in the same breath people will say Jackson doesn't belong in the first conversation when frankly he's a better prospect in every single way except arm strength. Which means nothing just ask Jamarcus Russell...

 

[NewColtsFan]

11 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

I agree on your point that the spread doesn't favor Jackson to a degree.  But I completely disagree with your argument about running outside the pocket. He ran predominantly on designed runs.  If it was a throwing call he rarely ever left the pocket for a run.  He may not be Watson (which I agree with) but this notion that he's like RG3 and he's going to take off every down is faulty at best.  

 

I have plenty of issues with Allen.  Number one he often can't hit the side of a barn if the barn was 20 yards in front of him during a game.  He can look all pretty on drills but when it comes to film it's awful to watch.  People are enamored with his skill set yet aren't enamored with a similar explosive skill set in Jackson with better production and better accuracy and to me that is just baffling. 

 

I get that Allen is considered a first round pick.  I also agree that he should be.  First overall? To me that is a huge stretch. But what bothers me the most is that in the same breath people will say Jackson doesn't belong in the first conversation when frankly he's a better prospect in every single way except arm strength. Which means nothing just ask Jamarcus Russell...

 

 

I agree with many of your points.    Just not all of them.

 

I seriously doubt that Jackson can read defenses as good as Allen.    And, even if I accept that Jackson will not take off and run as often as I think he will,  you can't see any high-lites of his that don't show him running.    And when he does in the NFL,  I think he's begging for trouble.    He's just not that big.   I think he'll take a terrible beating.    And I think the NFL defenses will be way too complicated for him to read and understand,  and they'll react and close so much faster than he's used to seeing.     I'm not saying he can't ever play and be successful.    I would just never invest a first round pick in him.    If I liked him and could get him in the 2nd,  then I'd be OK.     But first round?    Not for me.

 

Before anyone misinterprets my meaning here,  let me be clear....    this is NOT a Black and White issue for me.  DeShawn Watson was my highest rated QB of last year.    I just don't see the same QB with Jackson.

 

As for Allen,  I agree,  his accuracy (or lack of it) is a HUGE concern.    As has been noted by many,  very few QB's go to the NFL and suddenly become MORE accurate there than they were in college.    That's a GIANT Red Flag for me.    But much of that appears tied up with poor coaching and bad footwork.    NFL coaches will think they can fix that.     They will be happy to take on that risk.    He's the tallest,  biggest,  thickest body in the class,  and he's got the biggest arm in the class.    You can roll him either way and he can he zip it.     What can I tell you,  he's probably the 4th QB for me....    but based on what I read,  I think he's a top-10 kid.    Just too much upside.    And NFL types think the downside is worth the risk.