Colts Can Be A Good Football Team In 2012 And Beyond

[Vance]

"All you have to do is have great players at all the playmaking positions and you'll be set. Amazing analysis". I interpret that as mocking a Colts fan

"Stop taking every little thing and running with it like its gold. I can see it now, '5 year old girl says Manning will be better than ever'". If you actually read the other posts, other people (including myself) were critical of the article.

That's not mocking, man. Any team that isn't good right now would be, with good players in all the positions he mentioned. It's kind of obvious, but something like that is alot easier said than done.

And you forgot to include the part in the second quote where I said "I like you guys" so good job.

And I also said on two separate occasions that the Colts would make the playoffs in 2015, I guess you think that's mocking too...?

[21isSuperman]

That's not mocking, man. Any team that isn't good right now would be, with good players in all the positions he mentioned. It's kind of obvious, but something like that is alot easier said than done.

And you forgot to include the part in the second quote where I said "I like you guys" so good job.

And I also said on two separate occasions that the Colts would make the playoffs in 2015, I guess you think that's mocking too...?

I guess the part where you said "amazing analysis" rubbed me off the wrong way. Regardless, if you have anything else you would like to say, I think it may be more appropriate to continue this conversation via PM instead of taking this thread off course (which in all fairness, was initiated by me). Personally, I have nothing else to add. I apologize if I misinterpreted your posts

[Jules]

I have a strangely optimistic feeling if Luck starts next year. Sneaking into the playoffs is not out of the question for me regardless. 9-7 might be enough again for all we know.

Hey, I did not say anything would happen if they got in.....just that it's not impossible. The Colts will be different, it's not the same old same old. New coaches, new gm......the works. What people think they might get is not what they get.

[DenverFan]

From the outside looking in, I disagree.

It looks like to me you need 6 new starters on offense this year, and 6 new starters on defense. Then you need depth at nearly every position on your roster.

Now if you hit on your draft picks and pick up some solid starters through FA, you could turn around like the Lions did... but that took 2 years to become a good football team.

[GoColts8818]

From the outside looking in, I disagree.

It looks like to me you need 6 new starters on offense this year, and 6 new starters on defense. Then you need depth at nearly every position on your roster.

Now if you hit on your draft picks and pick up some solid starters through FA, you could turn around like the Lions did... but that took 2 years to become a good football team.

six new starters on offense?

I guess that depeneds on how you define new starters. Guys like Collie and Ijalana would be new starters but they have been on the team and in the system being groomed. I think we bring Garcon back and he was already a starter.

We still have Clark and two running backs who have been starters under contract.

Now take the QB spot out of for a second because clearly that's up in the air.

That leaves three spots on the line. I think Reitz keeps one of the guards spots. That leaves the center and other guard spot. One of those will probably be taken by Pollack who has been a starter for us in the past. So that's one new starter in there if we don't bring Saturday back which we might very well not.

Frankly other than the QB spot and one WR (and if it's a WR it will probably be Blair white who has been a part-time starter for us due to injuries in the past) or FB spot we are looking at keeping a good chunk of our starters on offense or using guys who have been on the team being groomed to be starters. So like I said I guess it depends on how you define new starters.

[DenverFan]

six new starters on offense?

I guess that depeneds on how you define new starters. Guys like Collie and Ijalana would be new starters but they have been on the team and in the system being groomed. I think we bring Garcon back and he was already a starter.

We still have Clark and two running backs who have been starters under contract.

Now take the QB spot out of for a second because clearly that's up in the air.

That leaves three spots on the line. I think Reitz keeps one of the guards spots. That leaves the center and other guard spot. One of those will probably be taken by Pollack who has been a starter for us in the past. So that's one new starter in there if we don't bring Saturday back which we might very well not.

Frankly other than the QB spot and one WR (and if it's a WR it will probably be Blair white who has been a part-time starter for us due to injuries in the past) or FB spot we are looking at keeping a good chunk of our starters on offense or using guys who have been on the team being groomed to be starters. So like I said I guess it depends on how you define new starters.

QB, Both WR spots unless you resign Garcon, TE if Clark is cut, a great FB couldn't hurt but isn't really a need, a RG is needed, and then you have players that could be upgraded like Pollak, Addai, and Tamme. I meant 5 new starters on offense, not 6; QB, 2 WRs, TE, RG.

You could in theory start guys like Blair White, but do you really want to?

[Phil J]

QB, Both WR spots unless you resign Garcon,

we are not losing both Garcon and Wayne. so your 2 WR analysis is off. Garcon is getting resigned, no question. Seems like he might be top priority over Mathis, even.

[GoColts8818]

QB, Both WR spots unless you resign Garcon, TE if Clark is cut, a great FB couldn't hurt but isn't really a need, a RG is needed, and then you have players that could be upgraded like Pollak, Addai, and Tamme. I meant 5 new starters on offense, not 6; QB, 2 WRs, TE, RG.

You could in theory start guys like Blair White, but do you really want to?

We are going to resign Garcon. The only way we'll cut Clark is if we keep Tamme who was a starter for a half a season.

So I think at most we are looking at new lineman, new QB, and either a new WR or FB. So I come up with two maybe three and of that if we keep Saturday an go with Pollack that is no new starters on the line. We MIGHT keep Peyton which means no new QB and the third WR if we go with that would probably be Blair White starting in the slot who has started there in the past.

Frankly if I had to guess if we keep Peyton our starters will look like this:

QB: Peyton

RB: Addai

WR: Garcon

WR: Collie

WR: White

TE: Clark

OT: Castonzo

OT: Ijalana

G: Rookie

G: Reitz

C: Saturday

If we go wtih Luck I think it will look like this:

QB: Luck

RB: Brown

WR: Garcon

WR: Collie

TE: Clark

TE: Tamme

OT: Castonzo

OT: Ijalana

G: Rookie

G: Reitz

C: Pollack

[DenverFan]

We are going to resign Garcon. The only way we'll cut Clark is if we keep Tamme who was a starter for a half a season.

So I think at most we are looking at new lineman, new QB, and either a new WR or FB. So I come up with two maybe three and of that if we keep Saturday an go with Pollack that is no new starters on the line. We MIGHT keep Peyton which means no new QB and the third WR if we go with that would probably be Blair White starting in the slot who has started there in the past.

Frankly if I had to guess if we keep Peyton our starters will look like this:

QB: Peyton

RB: Addai

WR: Garcon

WR: Collie

WR: White

TE: Clark

OT: Castonzo

OT: Ijalana

G: Rookie

G: Reitz

C: Saturday

A good majority of those players are mediocre, and only Peyton can hide those holes.

If we go wtih Luck I think it will look like this:

QB: Luck

RB: Brown

WR: Garcon

WR: Collie

TE: Clark

TE: Tamme

OT: Castonzo

OT: Ijalana

G: Rookie

G: Reitz

C: Pollack

It just doesn't look pretty on paper. Ijalana is an unknown, Brown is average, Collie is injury prone, the offense lacks playmakers. It also lacks blocking so it doesn't matter what RB you have, they are going to have trouble reaching 4 yards per carry. Then look at your second stringers. Do you have any faith that a guy could step up if one of your starters goes down?

[DenverFan]

we are not losing both Garcon and Wayne. so your 2 WR analysis is off. Garcon is getting resigned, no question. Seems like he might be top priority over Mathis, even.

And Garcon could be a hot option in free agency, he is young fast and physical and many teams can offer him good sized contracts like Jacksonville, Houston, Washington, and Tampa Bay.

[GoColts8818]

A good majority of those players are mediocre, and only Peyton can hide those holes.

It just doesn't look pretty on paper. Ijalana is an unknown, Brown is average, Collie is injury prone, the offense lacks playmakers. It also lacks blocking so it doesn't matter what RB you have, they are going to have trouble reaching 4 yards per carry. Then look at your second stringers. Do you have any faith that a guy could step up if one of your starters goes down?

I didn't say it looked great...I've said from the get go this is going to be a more than one year rebuilding project. I was just telling you who I think the starters are going to be next year since you said we were looking at six and then five new starters and I don't think that's the case. I would agree we do need some work but I don't think we are going to be able to do it all this off-season.

Collie has had ONE injury filled season not unlike Clark did in 2007. Clark over came his issues and has not had them since then. We can only hope from the stand point he has the same luck with health Clark has. Collie did not have one injury issue this past season and that is a good sign.

I think Brown can be a play maker. He's shown the flashes. I would agree with you the issue there is the o-line. I think we have some good young peaces in place but need one or two more and if we find them that will help. Also I think having a QB who other teams have to take serious again (rather it be Manning or Luck) will help.

As for the WR spot I think this is a stop gap move. I don't think Garcon is a number one WR but I don't think we are going to be able to get one in this draft either and he'll probably be our best WR coming back. I think that is more than likely our target in next year's draft. With that said I do think Garcon is a play maker as well. He's proven that.

Clark has been a play maker as well but something just wasn't right about this past season. I am not sure if that was not having Peyton or if his wrist is stll an issue. I guess we'll see what happens. If it was just not having Peyton then either having Peyton or having Luck (who loved his tightends in college) might be what he needs. If it's his wrist I would look for him to be released next season.

[OLD FAN MAN]

Not easy but I believe its possible. Some of our starters are not that talented.

some of our starters could look good with the coaching change,i think we can make the playoffs next year with a new system, if we can add some size everywhere it will make a difference, if peyton comes back we will need to fix the o-line but if luck is our man he can move and throw on the run and we can get by with what we have there.

[likm]

And Garcon could be a hot option in free agency, he is young fast and physical and many teams can offer him good sized contracts like Jacksonville, Houston, Washington, and Tampa Bay.

Denver fan I am having a hard time with er posts. I feel that they reflect the hatred you have for our team because we broke er hart so many times. Quit living in the past. We "owned" the Broncos a few games and sent you home crying but thats no reason for you to come here with all er hatred.

[DenverFan]

Denver fan I am having a hard time with er posts. I feel that they reflect the hatred you have for our team because we broke er hart so many times. Quit living in the past. We "owned" the Broncos a few games and sent you home crying but thats no reason for you to come here with all er hatred.

I don't care what you have done to Denver in the past 10 years. What you gave us with Elway was far more worth it. I have no hatred for the colts, just giving my opinion.

[likm]

I don't care what you have done to Denver in the past 10 years. What you gave us with Elway was far more worth it. I have no hatred for the colts, just giving my opinion.

Thank you for confirming my thought. HA

[DenverFan]

I didn't say it looked great...I've said from the get go this is going to be a more than one year rebuilding project. I was just telling you who I think the starters are going to be next year since you said we were looking at six and then five new starters and I don't think that's the case. I would agree we do need some work but I don't think we are going to be able to do it all this off-season.

Collie has had ONE injury filled season not unlike Clark did in 2007. Clark over came his issues and has not had them since then. We can only hope from the stand point he has the same luck with health Clark has. Collie did not have one injury issue this past season and that is a good sign.

I think Brown can be a play maker. He's shown the flashes. I would agree with you the issue there is the o-line. I think we have some good young peaces in place but need one or two more and if we find them that will help. Also I think having a QB who other teams have to take serious again (rather it be Manning or Luck) will help.

As for the WR spot I think this is a stop gap move. I don't think Garcon is a number one WR but I don't think we are going to be able to get one in this draft either and he'll probably be our best WR coming back. I think that is more than likely our target in next year's draft. With that said I do think Garcon is a play maker as well. He's proven that.

Clark has been a play maker as well but something just wasn't right about this past season. I am not sure if that was not having Peyton or if his wrist is stll an issue. I guess we'll see what happens. If it was just not having Peyton then either having Peyton or having Luck (who loved his tightends in college) might be what he needs. If it's his wrist I would look for him to be released next season.

Collie had one injury filled season, that injury was concussions. And concussions don't just go away, especially if you are a slot receiver who constantly running in the middle of the field.

I think a big problem Luck will have early on is that the WRs you have, are mostly guys who Peyton made look better than they are and then your QBs this year made them look worse then they are. Luck liked throwing to his tight ends, but Clark is more of receiver and Tamme is also on the light side. Neither are great in line blockers that Luck heavily utilized in college. He also won't have a good offensive line this year.

Now I'm here because the fans on the Denver board do a draft game, and I was lucky enough to get the Colts. There is a prize so I do a ton of research, and I also choose a team who has some young promising pieces.

Just IMO, the players that I think have very good potential on your offense are;

Delone Carter (if he can stop fumbling)

Donald Brown

Brody Eldridge

Anthony Castonzo

Joe Reitz

Ben Ijalana

All of those guys can fit Bruce Arians scheme well. Carter being his Mendenhall, Brown being his Mwelde Moore, Eldridge being a Heath Miller. Luck can be your Big Ben.

I'm even more excited for your defense, in a 3-4 you could go from one of the worst to a top 20 defense in year 1. And you already have some young parts that can fit great. Your veterans even look like good fits if you run a scheme similar to what Pagano ran in Baltimore last year.

Jamaal Anderson is a great fit for a 3-4. Nevis can be a great nickle pass rusher. Fili Maola will could be an average starer. Angerer is a typical "Jack" linebacker. Both Freeney and Mathis can excel in Pagano hybrid. Suggs plays a majority of his snaps with his hand in the dirt, so could Freeney/Mathis. Hughes and Wheeler could be great fits at as rush backers.

If you get a good nosetackle and a "Ted" linebacker you could have one of the better front 7s in the league. The secondary needs some work, but will be hidden by good pass rush. But don't sleep on Mario Harvey, when I was scouting him last year he looked like a great fit for a 3-4 "Ted".

[GoColts8818]

Collie had one injury filled season, that injury was concussions. And concussions don't just go away, especially if you are a slot receiver who constantly running in the middle of the field.

I think a big problem Luck will have early on is that the WRs you have, are mostly guys who Peyton made look better than they are and then your QBs this year made them look worse then they are. Luck liked throwing to his tight ends, but Clark is more of receiver and Tamme is also on the light side. Neither are great in line blockers that Luck heavily utilized in college. He also won't have a good offensive line this year.

Now I'm here because the fans on the Denver board do a draft game, and I was lucky enough to get the Colts. There is a prize so I do a ton of research, and I also choose a team who has some young promising pieces.

Just IMO, the players that I think have very good potential on your offense are;

Delone Carter (if he can stop fumbling)

Donald Brown

Brody Eldridge

Anthony Castonzo

Joe Reitz

Ben Ijalana

All of those guys can fit Bruce Arians scheme well. Carter being his Mendenhall, Brown being his Mwelde Moore, Eldridge being a Heath Miller. Luck can be your Big Ben.

I'm even more excited for your defense, in a 3-4 you could go from one of the worst to a top 20 defense in year 1. And you already have some young parts that can fit great. Your veterans even look like good fits if you run a scheme similar to what Pagano ran in Baltimore last year.

Jamaal Anderson is a great fit for a 3-4. Nevis can be a great nickle pass rusher. Fili Maola will could be an average starer. Angerer is a typical "Jack" linebacker. Both Freeney and Mathis can excel in Pagano hybrid. Suggs plays a majority of his snaps with his hand in the dirt, so could Freeney/Mathis. Hughes and Wheeler could be great fits at as rush backers.

If you get a good nosetackle and a "Ted" linebacker you could have one of the better front 7s in the league. The secondary needs some work, but will be hidden by good pass rush. But don't sleep on Mario Harvey, when I was scouting him last year he looked like a great fit for a 3-4 "Ted".

That's why I brought up Clark in 07. He had two or three concusions that season. The Colts then got it figured out and got him a new helmet that works for him. It has not been an issue for Clark since then. That's what I mean when I said we can hope Collie's health issues are like Clark's going forward. Also if Collie is our number two WR next season that probably means he's going to move outside and let's be honest outside WR don't take nearly the shots slot WRs take.

Okay, which is it? Is Garcon a product of Peyton Manning or is he a good young WR? You've claimed both about him. You can't have it both ways. A quick check of his numbers and watching Colts games last years will show he had a very good year when you factor in his QBs where Collins, Painter, and Orlovsky. Also outside of a couple of runs by Brown and a couple catches late in the season by Reggie he was the one that provided almost all our big plays on offense for the first three quarters of the season.

As for the other WRs I think Collie has proven to be a decent player. No he's probably not going to have a season like he was having in 2010 before he got hurt but I would expect him to do better than he was doing last year if he has Luck getting him the ball. Blair White could clearly turn into a rookie WR but I think it's more than likely we start two tightends with Luck than three WRs and White would be a third WR.

As for the tightends Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are pretty much the same player. I think if we go tightends after thinking about it we would probably start Eldridge because he's a blocker as our second tightend. If that's the case Eldridge has started plunty of times in the NFL and has a lot of expereince. With that said Eldridge is not Heath Miller. He is very slow even by tightend standards.

I think it has been safely established we will probably not be in the need of five or six starters on offense like you claimed. Now with that said no this probably isn't going to be the most loaded team in the NFL next year. It's going to need work no question that's the point of rebuilding. I don't think it's all going to be done in one season which is why I said the WRs are probably going to be a stop gap to get us threw this season. I would look for us to target a true number one WR in the draft next year.

Looking at the defense the biggest hole by far is the DT spot. We do not have anyone close to being a true DT if we go to a 3-4 and at best we are going to be hybrid which means we have to find a 3-4 DT. It's probably our biggest need this off-season outside of QB and depending on what happens with Manning you could aruge it's our biggest.

As for the ends we might have those on the roster. Nevis and Anderson might be able to be 3-4 ends. There has been some talk about Freeney staying at end as well.

The linebackers I honestly feel pretty good about. I think Angerer will be one of the ILB for sure. I think it's between Brackett and Conner to lock down the other spot. Outside I think we keep Mathis and then it's between Freeney, Hughes, Conner, and or Wheeler to win the other starting job. I really liked Wheeler blitzing last year. That's when he seems to be at his best. If we bring him back he might do really well in a 3-4 OLB spot where he is pretty much told go get the QB.

As for the secondary it needs work. Bethea and Powers are starters but the other corner spot and safety spot are up in the air. I think we can get a safety later in the draft. As for corner again I think we are looking at stop gap solution for this year and along with WR that will probably become our biggest need moving forward into future drafts.

[DenverFan]

That's why I brought up Clark in 07. He had two or three concusions that season. The Colts then got it figured out and got him a new helmet that works for him. It has not been an issue for Clark since then. That's what I mean when I said we can hope Collie's health issues are like Clark's going forward. Also if Collie is our number two WR next season that probably means he's going to move outside and let's be honest outside WR don't take nearly the shots slot WRs take.

Okay, which is it? Is Garcon a product of Peyton Manning or is he a good young WR? You've claimed both about him. You can't have it both ways. A quick check of his numbers and watching Colts games last years will show he had a very good year when you factor in his QBs where Collins, Painter, and Orlovsky. Also outside of a couple of runs by Brown and a couple catches late in the season by Reggie he was the one that provided almost all our big plays on offense for the first three quarters of the season.

As for the other WRs I think Collie has proven to be a decent player. No he's probably not going to have a season like he was having in 2010 before he got hurt but I would expect him to do better than he was doing last year if he has Luck getting him the ball. Blair White could clearly turn into a rookie WR but I think it's more than likely we start two tightends with Luck than three WRs and White would be a third WR.

As for the tightends Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are pretty much the same player. I think if we go tightends after thinking about it we would probably start Eldridge because he's a blocker as our second tightend. If that's the case Eldridge has started plunty of times in the NFL and has a lot of expereince. With that said Eldridge is not Heath Miller. He is very slow even by tightend standards.

I think it has been safely established we will probably not be in the need of five or six starters on offense like you claimed. Now with that said no this probably isn't going to be the most loaded team in the NFL next year. It's going to need work no question that's the point of rebuilding. I don't think it's all going to be done in one season which is why I said the WRs are probably going to be a stop gap to get us threw this season. I would look for us to target a true number one WR in the draft next year.

Looking at the defense the biggest hole by far is the DT spot. We do not have anyone close to being a true DT if we go to a 3-4 and at best we are going to be hybrid which means we have to find a 3-4 DT. It's probably our biggest need this off-season outside of QB and depending on what happens with Manning you could aruge it's our biggest.

As for the ends we might have those on the roster. Nevis and Anderson might be able to be 3-4 ends. There has been some talk about Freeney staying at end as well.

The linebackers I honestly feel pretty good about. I think Angerer will be one of the ILB for sure. I think it's between Brackett and Conner to lock down the other spot. Outside I think we keep Mathis and then it's between Freeney, Hughes, Conner, and or Wheeler to win the other starting job. I really liked Wheeler blitzing last year. That's when he seems to be at his best. If we bring him back he might do really well in a 3-4 OLB spot where he is pretty much told go get the QB.

As for the secondary it needs work. Bethea and Powers are starters but the other corner spot and safety spot are up in the air. I think we can get a safety later in the draft. As for corner again I think we are looking at stop gap solution for this year and along with WR that will probably become our biggest need moving forward into future drafts.

The Peyton comment was more so against guys like White. I think Garcon has the physical talent to be an average #1 or high end #2. I don't know if Collie can be as effective on the outside as he was at slot.

I think Eldridge can be a poor man's Heath Miller, moving around to different positions while being a solid dump off option. I know he won't be putting up 70 catches and 1000 yards, but he will be a solid option if nothing is there. Arians definitely knew how to use blocking TEs as dump off options, and Eldrige could excel in this role.

The 5 starters comment was more about competing to be a good team this year. I think you need 5 new starters to get into 8-8 to 9-7 range. Sure you could get by with a few people starting, but they will probably hurt you more than they help. I think you can win 6 games this year, if nobody gets hurt maybe 8. But that's being optimistic.

[GoColts8818]

The Peyton comment was more so against guys like White. I think Garcon has the physical talent to be an average #1 or high end #2. I don't know if Collie can be as effective on the outside as he was at slot.

I think Eldridge can be a poor man's Heath Miller, moving around to different positions while being a solid dump off option. I know he won't be putting up 70 catches and 1000 yards, but he will be a solid option if nothing is there. Arians definitely knew how to use blocking TEs as dump off options, and Eldrige could excel in this role.

The 5 starters comment was more about competing to be a good team this year. I think you need 5 new starters to get into 8-8 to 9-7 range. Sure you could get by with a few people starting, but they will probably hurt you more than they help. I think you can win 6 games this year, if nobody gets hurt maybe 8. But that's being optimistic.

We aren't going to go get 5 starter level players on offense in one off-season when you factor in the bigger holes we have on defense.

Assuming we take a QB this year the other holes on offense I see us having to fill going forward are:

Guard and Center (I just don't buy Pollack but I think we are going to give him a shot if we don't keep Saturday)

A true number one WR even if we keep Garcon. I don't think Garcon is a number one WR and it lets everyone else go back to their natural poistions.

Maybe a new running back but Brown showed some promise if we can get the blocking down in front of him.

I don't think we are going to get all of those this off-season and I don't think we need too. We need to give guys like Pollack and Brown a chance to lock down their jobs. If they can't then we need to let them go and move on to someone else.

[BleedingBlue]

DenverFan knows his stuff guys. Cut him some slack.

GoColts Just wondering why you have Addai starting with Manning but Brown with Luck. I hope Brown starts no matter what and I'd like to see Carter get some more carries.

[GoColts8818]

DenverFan knows his ish guys. Cut him some slack.

GoColts Just wondering why you have Addai starting with Manning but Brown with Luck. I hope Brown starts no matter what and I'd like to see Carter get some more carries.

I think Addai is kinda Manning's guy. I think Addai is a better blocker running back than Brown and is better in the passing game and with Manning I think they would start him there because he fits the type of offense Manning likes to run better than Brown does. I am not sure if we go with Luck that we even bring Addai back. We could but I wouldn't be shocked if we released Addai and made Brown the guy with Carter backing him up/being our short yardage guy.

[BleedingBlue]

makes sense. I've always liked Addai, but would have no problems seeing him released and picking up a third string in the draft.

[rockywoj]

My analysis of the Colts' prospects for contending in 2012 that I posted a few days ago in a different thread ...

Are the Colts REALLY in full blown rebuild mode?

I mean, IF they re-sign Wayne and Garcon, with a "healthy" Peyton Manning, is the Colts offense better or worse than their 2009 Super Bowl almost undefeated team? Let's analyze ...

QB - Starter ... With a healthy Peyton Manning, almost equal, maybe just a little bit of Rust. If we can believe the reports, Manning has been dealing with the nerve damage thing for several years, including 2009. Hence, if the surgery really takes, he might actually be HEALTHIER than in the past. Physically, he certainly would be fresher. He'd just have some rust to work through and some schematic / coaching changes to familiarize himself with.

QB - Backup ... Let's assume that the Colts select Andrew Luck instead of trading the pick. Instantly, as a group. the Colts are much deeper at QB.

QB Conclusion - equal to or better than the 2009 Super Bowl participant Colts.

RB - Addai, Brown, Carter & Fullback. Scheme is huge and with a better offensive scheme oriented to a more effective running game, the Colts of 2012 have more talent / better evolved talent than in 2009. Health remains the issue. If Addai and Brown can remain healthy, if Delone Carter progresses and eliminates the fumbles, and if the scheme takes advantage of an effective fullback, the Colts at running back are much better than in 2012.

Receivers - Clark, assuming he is healthy, is maybe not the player he was three years ago, but he can still be very effective. Tamme, if re-signed, improves depth and versatility as compared to 2009, and with Brody Eldridge, again if healthy, the Colts have more depth and blocking ability at TE. 2012 Colts would be equal to or better at TE than their nearly great 2009 team.

In the slot, Collie has had a full year now to recover from his concussion woes and he is more experienced. This year should be Collie's best, better than his rookie season of 2009 and what looked to be his coming out party of 2010 before the injuries derailed him. Collie still has an upside of emerging as one of the game's best slot receivers.

Gonzo, a non entity now for years, likely won't be back. That being said, if one believes he is still talented, then why not bring him back to see if he can turn the corner? It's not like he commands anything salary-wise in free agency, so bring him in, see if he has the ability to actually win a roster spot and see if he looks to finally be healthy. Gonzo is a nothing to lose, lots to gain player at this point, who will come on the cheap. If during training camp he shows anything other than perfect good health, then you cut him loose. Low risk, high reward potential.

Reggie Wayne - if re-signed he still has game. He may not be the break away number one threat that he used to be, but he's still a top flight, route precision WR that needs to be accounted for.

Any decline in Reggie Wayne is compensated for by the continued development of Pierre Garcon. Garcon is a game changer who continues to improve. He still has concentration issues when it comes to making the easy catches, but really, what WR does not drop the easy ones occasionally. This past year I have seen almost every elite receive drop a few easy ones, that were often drive killers, so I think the flack Garcon has sometimes gotten for dropsies is a little bit excessive in relation to his upside that he brings to the table. Honestly, I think that Garcon is emerging over Wayne as the Colts new number 1 receiver, similarly to how Wayne was emerging over Harrison during Harrison's last three years with the Colts.

With Health, the receiving corps is equal to the Colts of 2009. Now consider, maybe a 2nd or 3rd round WR talent from this years apparently deep WR class might add a new dimension to the receiving corps. Regardless, with the resigning of Wayne, Garcon, and Tamme, the Colts of 2012 are certainly close to par with the 2009 Colts receiving group.

Offensive Line - They sucked in 2009, they sucked in 2010, and generally they also sucked in 2011. The thing is, they added two fantastic prospects in OTs Castonzo and Ijalana. There is no doubt whatsoever that Castonzo should be much improved in 2012 and the same can be said for Ijalana, though he is coming off of a bad injury. For Castonzo's improvement alone, the Colts should be better at OT than during the past three years. If Ijalana can deliver, the Colts will be MUCH better at OT.

At OG, with current personnel, they are certainly equal to 2009, maybe arguably better than 2009. Throw in the expectation that maybe, just maybe the Colts can go out there and get a top OG FA or OG draft prospect, then I see the interior of the OL as being equal to or better than in 2009.

At C - if Manning makes it back, then there is a good chance Saturday returns again, too. Saturday looked to be on the decline in 2009, some saying he was starting to look like the weak link. He was pretty good in 2010, but last year, he was actually better than he had been in years. If Saturday does not return, then C becomes a big question mark. His replacement may (Mike Pollak) or may not already be on the team.

All in all, I think the OL remains a weakness that needs to be upgraded, but by evolution alone (Castonzo and Ijalana) they may be better than any O-Line the Colts have had for the past three years. Hence, I would peg the Colts line as being equal to or better than in 2009.

Coaching / Philosophy - With the return of a healthy Peyton Manning, I think the coaching / philosophy of the offense will be equal to or better than during their 2009 Super Bowl run. With a more balanced approach, and with good health, with Peyton Manning there is no reason why the Colts offense of 2012 cannot be equal to or greater than the Colts offense of 2009.

Offensive Conclusion = With a healthy Peyton Manning, the Colts offense is not in full blown rebuild mode, but rather, will be on high flying, in need of only minor tweaking mode. The Colts offense, with health, should be top ten in the NFL!

As for Defense, there is a rebuild / philosophy change going on, but there are still some excellent key cogs. The Defensive Line, with Mathis re-signed, is as good or better than in 2009. I say better because by the addition of Drake Nevis alone, they are better. Moala is more experienced. Johnson is apparently still there, and the Colts "may" actually add another key cog this year, either through FA or the draft. If another key cog at DT can be added, with retaining who we currently have and continued development of Nevis, the DL may actually be appreciably better than anytime in the past three years.

At LB, there remains question marks, but personnel-wise, quite simply I believe the Colts are better than in 2009.

Secondary = Colts defensive weakness. Are they really any weaker than in 2009, though? Powers is a near stud, when he can stay healthy, so on the Corner it's all about finding just one more guy. Their picks from the past two years might develop or maybe the Colts will improve via the draft or free agency. Improve they must, though.

At safety, with Bethea, the Colts are as good as ever at FS. SS remains a question. They really cannot be any worse, though, than during the past three years.

Ultimately, imho, the Colts defense is 3, maybe 4 players (DT, LB, SS, CB) away from being really formidable. More importantly, though, I think our defense in 2012 will be better than in 2009 simply by virtue of coaching / philosophical changes. With the new regime, the D is viewed as the area with the most upside, even though it is also, arguably, the area in greatest need of improvement. Generally, though, the defense has been the Achilles heel of the team (other than special teams), so I don't think things are any worse than in the past three years (assuming Mathis is re-signed) and in fact, I think things look to get better than during the past three years.

Hence, assuming a healthy Peyton Manning, to me, the Colts looks to be BETTER in 2012 than in their nearly undefeated, Super Bowl participating year of 2009. Thus, if Manning can be healthy, I think it is entirely realistic to have an expectation that the Colts can reclaim the division championship and actually contend for the Super Bowl during the 2012 season. Sure it won't be easy, but with one or two key additions on offense and 2 - 4 key additions on defense, the Colts can be WAY better than in 2009. Also keep in mind, by my count, in 2011 if special teams has showed up and been even mediocre and had Manning played, at the halfway point of 2011 I had the Colts pegged at being 5 - 3. After the 0 - 8 start, I quit keeping track for the second half of the season. Point being, it is such a thin line between losing and winning in the NFL and that as bad as thing turned out in 20122, things are not nearly as dire as the Colts record would lead most to believe.

So in closing, I say that, with a healthy Peyton Manning, the 2012 Colts look to be a better team than the 14-2 Super Bowl participating team of 2009. Hence, the return of Peyton Manning, with the retention of a few key free agents, along with only a few key player upgrades puts the Colts right back into the mix of realistically contending for a Super Bowl. Thus, it would not be a mistake for Manning to return to the Colts.

The Alternative, no Manning, and therefore probably also no Saturday and no Wayne. Maybe even no Clark and no Mathis. Without Manning, the Colts are much more likely to be in full on rebuild mode, as compared to if he can come back healthy. By reason, what is best for the Colts, regardless of whether or not they take Luck, is the return of a healthy Peyton Manning. Such will guarantee most immediate results and lead to a more painless transition to the Luck era.

That's my convoluted take. Cheers!

[likm]

My analysis of the Colts' prospects for contending in 2012 that I posted a few days ago in a different thread ...

Are the Colts REALLY in full blown rebuild mode?

I mean, IF they re-sign Wayne and Garcon, with a "healthy" Peyton Manning, is the Colts offense better or worse than their 2009 Super Bowl almost undefeated team? Let's analyze ...

QB - Starter ... With a healthy Peyton Manning, almost equal, maybe just a little bit of Rust. If we can believe the reports, Manning has been dealing with the nerve damage thing for several years, including 2009. Hence, if the surgery really takes, he might actually be HEALTHIER than in the past. Physically, he certainly would be fresher. He'd just have some rust to work through and some schematic / coaching changes to familiarize himself with.

QB - Backup ... Let's assume that the Colts select Andrew Luck instead of trading the pick. Instantly, as a group. the Colts are much deeper at QB.

QB Conclusion - equal to or better than the 2009 Super Bowl participant Colts.

RB - Addai, Brown, Carter & Fullback. Scheme is huge and with a better offensive scheme oriented to a more effective running game, the Colts of 2012 have more talent / better evolved talent than in 2009. Health remains the issue. If Addai and Brown can remain healthy, if Delone Carter progresses and eliminates the fumbles, and if the scheme takes advantage of an effective fullback, the Colts at running back are much better than in 2012.

Receivers - Clark, assuming he is healthy, is maybe not the player he was three years ago, but he can still be very effective. Tamme, if re-signed, improves depth and versatility as compared to 2009, and with Brody Eldridge, again if healthy, the Colts have more depth and blocking ability at TE. 2012 Colts would be equal to or better at TE than their nearly great 2009 team.

In the slot, Collie has had a full year now to recover from his concussion woes and he is more experienced. This year should be Collie's best, better than his rookie season of 2009 and what looked to be his coming out party of 2010 before the injuries derailed him. Collie still has an upside of emerging as one of the game's best slot receivers.

Gonzo, a non entity now for years, likely won't be back. That being said, if one believes he is still talented, then why not bring him back to see if he can turn the corner? It's not like he commands anything salary-wise in free agency, so bring him in, see if he has the ability to actually win a roster spot and see if he looks to finally be healthy. Gonzo is a nothing to lose, lots to gain player at this point, who will come on the cheap. If during training camp he shows anything other than perfect good health, then you cut him loose. Low risk, high reward potential.

Reggie Wayne - if re-signed he still has game. He may not be the break away number one threat that he used to be, but he's still a top flight, route precision WR that needs to be accounted for.

Any decline in Reggie Wayne is compensated for by the continued development of Pierre Garcon. Garcon is a game changer who continues to improve. He still has concentration issues when it comes to making the easy catches, but really, what WR does not drop the easy ones occasionally. This past year I have seen almost every elite receive drop a few easy ones, that were often drive killers, so I think the flack Garcon has sometimes gotten for dropsies is a little bit excessive in relation to his upside that he brings to the table. Honestly, I think that Garcon is emerging over Wayne as the Colts new number 1 receiver, similarly to how Wayne was emerging over Harrison during Harrison's last three years with the Colts.

With Health, the receiving corps is equal to the Colts of 2009. Now consider, maybe a 2nd or 3rd round WR talent from this years apparently deep WR class might add a new dimension to the receiving corps. Regardless, with the resigning of Wayne, Garcon, and Tamme, the Colts of 2012 are certainly close to par with the 2009 Colts receiving group.

Offensive Line - They sucked in 2009, they sucked in 2010, and generally they also sucked in 2011. The thing is, they added two fantastic prospects in OTs Castonzo and Ijalana. There is no doubt whatsoever that Castonzo should be much improved in 2012 and the same can be said for Ijalana, though he is coming off of a bad injury. For Castonzo's improvement alone, the Colts should be better at OT than during the past three years. If Ijalana can deliver, the Colts will be MUCH better at OT.

At OG, with current personnel, they are certainly equal to 2009, maybe arguably better than 2009. Throw in the expectation that maybe, just maybe the Colts can go out there and get a top OG FA or OG draft prospect, then I see the interior of the OL as being equal to or better than in 2009.

At C - if Manning makes it back, then there is a good chance Saturday returns again, too. Saturday looked to be on the decline in 2009, some saying he was starting to look like the weak link. He was pretty good in 2010, but last year, he was actually better than he had been in years. If Saturday does not return, then C becomes a big question mark. His replacement may (Mike Pollak) or may not already be on the team.

All in all, I think the OL remains a weakness that needs to be upgraded, but by evolution alone (Castonzo and Ijalana) they may be better than any O-Line the Colts have had for the past three years. Hence, I would peg the Colts line as being equal to or better than in 2009.

Coaching / Philosophy - With the return of a healthy Peyton Manning, I think the coaching / philosophy of the offense will be equal to or better than during their 2009 Super Bowl run. With a more balanced approach, and with good health, with Peyton Manning there is no reason why the Colts offense of 2012 cannot be equal to or greater than the Colts offense of 2009.

Offensive Conclusion = With a healthy Peyton Manning, the Colts offense is not in full blown rebuild mode, but rather, will be on high flying, in need of only minor tweaking mode. The Colts offense, with health, should be top ten in the NFL!

As for Defense, there is a rebuild / philosophy change going on, but there are still some excellent key cogs. The Defensive Line, with Mathis re-signed, is as good or better than in 2009. I say better because by the addition of Drake Nevis alone, they are better. Moala is more experienced. Johnson is apparently still there, and the Colts "may" actually add another key cog this year, either through FA or the draft. If another key cog at DT can be added, with retaining who we currently have and continued development of Nevis, the DL may actually be appreciably better than anytime in the past three years.

At LB, there remains question marks, but personnel-wise, quite simply I believe the Colts are better than in 2009.

Secondary = Colts defensive weakness. Are they really any weaker than in 2009, though? Powers is a near stud, when he can stay healthy, so on the Corner it's all about finding just one more guy. Their picks from the past two years might develop or maybe the Colts will improve via the draft or free agency. Improve they must, though.

At safety, with Bethea, the Colts are as good as ever at FS. SS remains a question. They really cannot be any worse, though, than during the past three years.

Ultimately, imho, the Colts defense is 3, maybe 4 players (DT, LB, SS, CB) away from being really formidable. More importantly, though, I think our defense in 2012 will be better than in 2009 simply by virtue of coaching / philosophical changes. With the new regime, the D is viewed as the area with the most upside, even though it is also, arguably, the area in greatest need of improvement. Generally, though, the defense has been the Achilles heel of the team (other than special teams), so I don't think things are any worse than in the past three years (assuming Mathis is re-signed) and in fact, I think things look to get better than during the past three years.

Hence, assuming a healthy Peyton Manning, to me, the Colts looks to be BETTER in 2012 than in their nearly undefeated, Super Bowl participating year of 2009. Thus, if Manning can be healthy, I think it is entirely realistic to have an expectation that the Colts can reclaim the division championship and actually contend for the Super Bowl during the 2012 season. Sure it won't be easy, but with one or two key additions on offense and 2 - 4 key additions on defense, the Colts can be WAY better than in 2009. Also keep in mind, by my count, in 2011 if special teams has showed up and been even mediocre and had Manning played, at the halfway point of 2011 I had the Colts pegged at being 5 - 3. After the 0 - 8 start, I quit keeping track for the second half of the season. Point being, it is such a thin line between losing and winning in the NFL and that as bad as thing turned out in 20122, things are not nearly as dire as the Colts record would lead most to believe.

So in closing, I say that, with a healthy Peyton Manning, the 2012 Colts look to be a better team than the 14-2 Super Bowl participating team of 2009. Hence, the return of Peyton Manning, with the retention of a few key free agents, along with only a few key player upgrades puts the Colts right back into the mix of realistically contending for a Super Bowl. Thus, it would not be a mistake for Manning to return to the Colts.

The Alternative, no Manning, and therefore probably also no Saturday and no Wayne. Maybe even no Clark and no Mathis. Without Manning, the Colts are much more likely to be in full on rebuild mode, as compared to if he can come back healthy. By reason, what is best for the Colts, regardless of whether or not they take Luck, is the return of a healthy Peyton Manning. Such will guarantee most immediate results and lead to a more painless transition to the Luck era.

That's my convoluted take. Cheers!

Good job. A lot of what you posted is why I believe the Colts can be competitive next year and beyond. We differ in the fact that you believe we will be competitive with Manning at QB. I would be very surprised if Peyton is our QB next year. I see Luck starting from day 1.

A lot of people forget this team in the past 5 years has been to 2 SB's.

I truly believe the Colts will be fine. Coaching changes were needed and now we need to finish building around the young talent we have.

[TennEngr]

4 or 5 years? I believe the Colts went from 3-13 to 13-3 in one off season when Peyton was drafted. If it takes 5 years then Grigson is not doing his job.

"perrenial post season team" was the key phrase in my statement. Peyton Manning was able to do this for the Colts. If Andrew Luck turns out not to be a great quarterback, then it will certainly take a team effort to consistently go to the post season of which we are accustomed to. You are correct, if it takes 4 or 5 years, then the rebuilding has probably failed in many eyes. GO COLTS!