Red Zone (in)efficiency

[Flash7]

I was watching some of our 2013 games through Game Rewind and noticed that we were not too efficient in the red zone, especially when it came to passing. I then thought to look into this.

 

I saw that as a team, we were ranked 10th in scoring TDs in the red zone, scoring a TD on 57% of red zone opportunities. (Of course, Denver was #1 at 73%)

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

 

What confirmed what I thought was that Luck's QB rating in the red zone ranked #29 at 75.1.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-rating-in-red-zone/2013/

 

This is a major area of improvement for Luck. Before we all point at the O-line or receivers as the issue, Tannehill ranks #6 with a 101.6 rating. His O-line was much worse than the Colts' and their receivers aren't better than what we had for much of the year.

 

Thoughts?

[Bravo]

Our O-line got very little push plus Dwayne Allen was the main threat 2 years ago and obviously wasn't there last year!

This year should be better hopefully

[BOTT]

So you want Ryan Tannehill in the redzone? Passer rating doesn't begin to tell the whole story

[chad72]

I remember Clyde and Peyton working on specific red zone plays and formations they did not show between the 20s that bolstered our TD rate to about two-thirds of the time we were in the red zone. 

 

There is a lot of Xs and Os to it because gaps are squeezed and teams play more zone daring you to run in the red zone, so even when we have the personnel I have seen a few things missing. Timing routes where the ball is out before the WR/TE break happens in the red zone have to be perfected between Luck and his wideouts.

 

I see a lot of rollouts, dumpoffs to FB, misdirection with Luck's rollouts all happening but I do not see enough timing routes and pick routes in the red zone. Maybe they are afraid the young ones will make mistakes??? Not sure.

[Flash7]

So you want Ryan Tannehill in the redzone? Passer rating doesn't begin to tell the whole story

Not sure that I said I wanted Tannehill in the red zone for the Colts? 

 

I was alluding to Tannehill having a bad O-line and average receivers, similar to the Colts last year, however Tannehill being more efficient. Lastly, I pointed out that this is an area of improvement for Luck.

 

Of course passer rating doesn't tell the whole story, but it is applied evenly to all QBs. Given those parameters (whether you agree with them or not), Luck is at the bottom of the list. And it's okay to be critical of Luck. I love all that he does (my favorite player), but he can improve in certain areas.

[BOTT]

Not sure that I said I wanted Tannehill in the red zone for the Colts? 

 

I was alluding to Tannehill having a bad O-line and average receivers, similar to the Colts last year, however Tannehill being more efficient. Lastly, I pointed out that this is an area of improvement for Luck.

 

Of course passer rating doesn't tell the whole story, but it is applied evenly to all QBs. Given those parameters (whether you agree with them or not), Luck is at the bottom of the list. And it's okay to be critical of Luck. I love all that he does (my favorite player), but he can improve in certain areas.

I never said it wasn't ok to be critical of Luck and he doesn't need to improve.....but using passer rating in the redzone can be very misleading. I I don't care if it's applied to all QB's because it's a very flawed rating system.

[Flash7]

I never said it wasn't ok to be critical of Luck and he doesn't need to improve.....but using passer rating in the redzone can be very misleading. I I don't care if it's applied to all QB's because it's a very flawed rating system.

Honest question...Could you explain how it's misleading?

 

It's been around for decades and looking back at QB's with good passer ratings, you would normally find guys that are considered to be just that, good. And the QBs with bad passer ratings would be guys generally considered bad. So, not to be combative, please explain why you feel this might be misleading?

[BOTT]

Honest question...Could you explain how it's misleading?

 

It's been around for decades and looking back at QB's with good passer ratings, you would normally find guys that are considered to be just that, good. And the QBs with bad passer ratings would be guys generally considered bad. So, not to be combative, please explain why you feel this might be misleading?

It doesn't account for what type of offense your playing...dink and dunk offense or a down the field offense. It doesn't recognize the between a horribly thrown incomplete pass to wide open receiver and a QB the avoids the rush and manages tho throw the ball out of bounds. Nor does it differentiate between an int that is thrown right to a defender and a int that bounces off the hands of the receiver and into the arms of a defender. I think you get my drift. I have seem quite a few quarterbacks with nice passer ratings, see matt schaub, whose play doesn't match the numbers.

[Superman]

Honest question...Could you explain how it's misleading?

 

It's been around for decades and looking back at QB's with good passer ratings, you would normally find guys that are considered to be just that, good. And the QBs with bad passer ratings would be guys generally considered bad. So, not to be combative, please explain why you feel this might be misleading?

 

Don't mean to butt in...

 

I wouldn't call it misleading, but I would call it incomplete. Passer rating doesn't take into consideration drop rate, QB pressure, etc. A QB's passer rating gets dinged when he throws the ball away in the red zone, even if it was the right play and it preserved a scoring drive. I could go on... So if you compare two players against each other on the basis of passer rating only, you're not coming close to telling the entire story.

 

I think the point is that we need to do better at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Couldn't agree more. But I don't quite agree with the comparisons that are being drawn.

[jameszeigler834]

I was watching some of our 2013 games through Game Rewind and noticed that we were not too efficient in the red zone, especially when it came to passing. I then thought to look into this.

 

I saw that as a team, we were ranked 10th in scoring TDs in the red zone, scoring a TD on 57% of red zone opportunities. (Of course, Denver was #1 at 73%)

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

 

What confirmed what I thought was that Luck's QB rating in the red zone ranked #29 at 75.1.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-rating-in-red-zone/2013/

 

This is a major area of improvement for Luck. Before we all point at the O-line or receivers as the issue, Tannehill ranks #6 with a 101.6 rating. His O-line was much worse than the Colts' and their receivers aren't better than what we had for much of the year.

 

Thoughts?

So what are you trying to say luck sucks just because his passer rating wasn't great in the red zone he didn't throw very many int's in the red zone two or three and passer rating and PFF rating is a joke and the top 100 players list is also a joke none of those three lists mean anything and Tannehill threw a lot more picks his first two years than luck did.

[GoColts8818]

Product of being a pass first offense.  The closer you get to the endzone harder it is to throw it in there.  Also missing two of the Colts best redzone targets in Allen and Wayne probably played a major factor in the redzone struggles last year. 

[throwing BBZ]

  It is simple and obvious. The ratings pretty much confirm what we see on the tape.
 Andrew has a long way to go in the short to medium passing game with his decision making and accuracy.

[Flash7]

So what are you trying to say luck sucks just because his passer rating wasn't great in the red zone he didn't throw very many int's in the red zone two or three and passer rating and PFF rating is a joke and the top 100 players list is also a joke none of those three lists mean anything and Tannehill threw a lot more picks his first two years than luck did.

James, calm down buddy. Throw in a few punctuation marks, please.

 

Not saying that Luck sucks--just that he can improve in the red zone. That's a fair assessment.

[Flash7]

Here is an article I found related to Luck in the red zone from CBS Sports:

 

Why does Andrew Luck struggle so much in the red zone?

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/fantasy-football-today/24510308/why-does-andrew-luck-struggle-so-much-in-the-red-zone

[Superman]

Here is an article I found related to Luck in the red zone from CBS Sports:

 

Why does Andrew Luck struggle so much in the red zone?

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/fantasy-football-today/24510308/why-does-andrew-luck-struggle-so-much-in-the-red-zone

 

Again, the conclusion is flawed, because the analysis is flawed.

 

The writer starts by stating: Andrew Luck has been a poor red-zone passer since entering the NFL.

 

Then he goes on to cite raw stats that don't take into consideration the situation, the reason for the lack of success, or any other number of factors that should be evaluated. And the PFF rating that he points to is inconclusive, as even PFF acknowledges by saying: Additional research will be required to determine if this is quarterback-, receiver-, or luck-dependent, but Luck did struggle in this area last year, as well. 

 

As a second year QB, I'm not surprised that Luck's red zone efficiency ratings aren't off the charts. That's one of the areas I believe he needs to improve in. Coupled with his ability to run the ball into the end zone, I think his performance in scoring situations will improve. We need it to improve. 

 

Luck sometimes holds the ball too long. He sometimes waits too long to scramble and pick up yards with his legs. He misses some throws. He hasn't had very much support from the run game. The offensive line gives up a lot of pressure. His receivers have dropped a lot of passes, and haven't been very good at getting open in the red zone (outside of Reggie, he's been playing with young guys still working on their craft, or journeyman veterans who aren't very good at the technical aspects of the game). The playcalling has been lacking. There are a lot of factors to consider. I just don't think our substandard red zone efficiency should be laid at Luck's feet, although his inconsistency is a part of the problem.

[chad72]

Here is an article I found related to Luck in the red zone from CBS Sports:

 

Why does Andrew Luck struggle so much in the red zone?

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/fantasy-football-today/24510308/why-does-andrew-luck-struggle-so-much-in-the-red-zone

 

A few things need to happen for red zone efficiency:

 

1. Excellent chemistry with wideouts if you use timing patterns - I don't think Luck is there yet with the wideouts in the red zone
2. Play design - pick routes, touch throws towards the back of the pylon are things that need to be added AND executed right
3. Big bodied wideouts - I think with Da'Rick Rogers, Hakeem Nicks and Moncrief, we may have a good mixture along with Dwayne Allen for Luck to choose from. Its not a co-incidence Brady's best red zone weapon in the passing offense was Gronk the last few years

As a whole, Luck needs to improve on his touch and timing throws and I am sure he will with the additions to the offense. But if I had to guess, point no. 3 will be exploited first by Luck before 1 and 2 happen with the offense, just my gut feeling.

[Superman]

A few things need to happen for red zone efficiency:

 

1. Excellent chemistry with wideouts if you use timing patterns - I don't think Luck is there yet with the wideouts in the red zone
2. Play design - pick routes, touch throws towards the back of the pylon are things that need to be added AND executed right
3. Big bodied wideouts - I think with Da'Rick Rogers, Hakeem Nicks and Moncrief, we may have a good mixture along with Dwayne Allen for Luck to choose from. Its not a co-incidence Brady's best red zone weapon in the passing offense was Gronk the last few years

As a whole, Luck needs to improve on his touch and timing throws and I am sure he will with the additions to the offense. But if I had to guess, point no. 3 will be exploited first by Luck before 1 and 2 happen with the offense, just my gut feeling.

 

I agree. I think #2 can improve without too much time going by, if Pep borrows some stuff from around the league. But it's also the one element that I'm most concerned about, because some of Pep's stuff last year was just awful. #3 should be evident right away, and you didn't even mention Fleener. As #1 really begins to click, these efficiency numbers will improve dramatically.

 

If the offensive line protects better, and we start developing a running game that can be relied on, the league will be put on notice.

[CroatianColtsFan21]

one of the problems in the red zone might be the fact that andrew can't/doesn't throw a fade.. just remember how many times we saw peyton execute it perfectly in the red zone for a td.. 

 

i'm not trollin' here, just an opinion..

[chad72]

one of the problems in the red zone might be the fact that andrew can't/doesn't throw a fade.. just remember how many times we saw peyton execute it perfectly in the red zone for a td.. 

 

i'm not trollin' here, just an opinion..

 

No, there is validity to it, I agree. On the contrary, Luck does not have to force the issue because he can use his legs unlike Peyton.

 

Peyton in his early years was blessed with a No.1 wideout like Marvin that he could rely on health wise and production wise for the longest time. So, it is not a co-incidence that when Luck's reading/knowledge of the defenses was moving faster than his fellow rookie and 2nd year wideouts, the guy who saved the bacon most of the time was Reggie Wayne, and that was the primary reason Luck stared him down a lot because he knew that guy knew to read Ds like him being a vet and would be open. That is why, to an extent, having some stability at wideout (even if it is with a couple of WRs and TEs) is imperative moving forward. The 1 year deals to Avery, DHB, Nicks kinds will eventually come to an end and I hope it does for Luck's sake and the offensive stability's and chemistry's sake. You can't keep them all but have to keep around a few ones for stability and chemistry, IMO.

[AwesomeAustin]

Even casual fans know that defense tightens up in the redzone. Lanes are smaller and the top end of the offense is taken away. We lacked weapons for Luck to truly use the entire playbook. After we get back injured players and the depth become more of a lock, Luck will develop more consistency. There was a post earlier about bigger bodied receivers helping. This concept is true and can be expanded on some. The philosophy of the front office and coaching staff seems to favor big bodied physical players on both offense and defense. More development from younger players and added free agents who play "monster" ball will only help us in the redzone. We must play smash mouth football I. The trenches and receivers that can separate with by being physical. Yes some finesse works but normally doesn't win in the postseason. Just hang on people and be patient while Luck and the rest of the youngsters grow together and become better the way I believe is correct.

[jameszeigler834]

James, calm down buddy. Throw in a few punctuation marks, please.

 

Not saying that Luck sucks--just that he can improve in the red zone. That's a fair assessment.

Ya well I think the way he plays in the postseason is more of a must improve than his red zone while there is always room for improvement I think he needs to play better in the post season like this team could have beat Denver but that's the thing you cant give up 87 points in  two games and commit 7 turnovers in the postseason and expect to win a Superbowl.

[Coffeedrinker]

I was watching some of our 2013 games through Game Rewind and noticed that we were not too efficient in the red zone, especially when it came to passing. I then thought to look into this.

 

I saw that as a team, we were ranked 10th in scoring TDs in the red zone, scoring a TD on 57% of red zone opportunities. (Of course, Denver was #1 at 73%)

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

 

What confirmed what I thought was that Luck's QB rating in the red zone ranked #29 at 75.1.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-rating-in-red-zone/2013/

 

This is a major area of improvement for Luck. Before we all point at the O-line or receivers as the issue, Tannehill ranks #6 with a 101.6 rating. His O-line was much worse than the Colts' and their receivers aren't better than what we had for much of the year.

 

Thoughts?

Did you break it down to with Wayne and Without Wayne?  I'd be willing to bet that it was red zone passing TDs and Lucks redzone Qb rating was better with Wayne.

 

That being said I remember some pundits were talking about the Colts redzone O before the playoffs and that it was a point of concern and yes it's something that needs to be improved upon before the Colts take that next step to elite status.