Impact of the Kelce Signing on the FA Center Market

[ztboiler]

While we can't translate this linearly, The Eagles extending of Kelce for 6/37.5 and $13M guaranteed is an informative new data point for the FA center market.  He had a great year in 2013 after missing most of 2012 with injury and had a promising 2011 rookie year where he played 16 games.  It certainly validates that someone might offer EDS a similar number, though his overall body of work is shorter (last 2 years are very comparable).  That could easily be a number that the Packers won't pay, and it will be interesting to see if we will.  If EDS re-signs or signs for under $5M/yr. it will also be an indicator that the market may still attach a discount to an undrafted journeyman who has had only 1 good (really good) year.   All the same logic applies to DLP as well.

[OffensivelyPC]

It's just impossible to know right now until after the March 11 deadline, who we re-sign and cut, etc.  And then there's the question of Holmes.  Right now, the picture is just too hazy.

[BrentMc11]

While we can't translate this linearly, The Eagles extending of Kelce for 6/37.5 and $13M guaranteed is an informative new data point for the FA center market.  He had a great year in 2013 after missing most of 2012 with injury and had a promising 2011 rookie year where he played 16 games.  It certainly validates that someone might offer EDS a similar number, though his overall body of work is shorter (last 2 years are very comparable).  That could easily be a number that the Packers won't pay, and it will be interesting to see if we will.  If EDS re-signs or signs for under $5M/yr. it will also be an indicator that the market may still attach a discount to an undrafted journeyman who has had only 1 good (really good) year.   All the same logic applies to DLP as well.

HMMM...nice start...May the chips fall where they may now...

[Superman]

While we can't translate this linearly, The Eagles extending of Kelce for 6/37.5 and $13M guaranteed is an informative new data point for the FA center market.  He had a great year in 2013 after missing most of 2012 with injury and had a promising 2011 rookie year where he played 16 games.  It certainly validates that someone might offer EDS a similar number, though his overall body of work is shorter (last 2 years are very comparable).  That could easily be a number that the Packers won't pay, and it will be interesting to see if we will.  If EDS re-signs or signs for under $5M/yr. it will also be an indicator that the market may still attach a discount to an undrafted journeyman who has had only 1 good (really good) year.   All the same logic applies to DLP as well.

 

This deal was done with a year remaining on Kelce's contract, so it can be considered somewhat discounted. There are clauses that can increase the value to $40.1m over six years, so the APY range is $6.25m - $6.68m/year. We already expect Mack to get nearly $9m/year. This deal probably puts EDS and/or BdlP in the $7m/year range.

[ztboiler]

This deal was done with a year remaining on Kelce's contract, so it can be considered somewhat discounted. There are clauses that can increase the value to $40.1m over six years, so the APY range is $6.25m - $6.68m/year. We already expect Mack to get nearly $9m/year. This deal probably puts EDS and/or BdlP in the $7m/year range.

Yep.  It is logical that EDS in particular could command a premium to Kelce's # on the open market.  With the Bears re-signing Garza and SF having so many draft picks, however, I'm not sure there is a very long list of suitors for a big money UFA center.  Jax, NE, Baltimore and the Colts?  3 of those 4 don't look likely to overpay - that could bring EDS back down to a number that the Packers find palatable or back in the $5M range or less.

[loudnproudcolt]

When I look at Kelce's deal, I say about 6M a year basically. Then I look at Satele and we are going to pay him 5M for this year. So for comparison sake, I won't talk about how good the players are, but Satele even being in the ballpark of a player like Kelce is simply ridiculous. Cut him, take the 4M in cap space, and then you are basically signing a center for about the same money and if looked through the prism of cutting Satele, it will only cost us about $2-3 Million extra, when looking at what Samson has been paid the last two years and going forward. I think that is a bargain to at least get someone who does not get pushed into the backfield everytime it seems. Even if BDLP is not a great run blocker, at least we know he can pass protect. EDS is my choice, and maybe 6-7M would encourage him to join us. He would be leaving a great QB, but he would be joining a younger QB, who has the chance to surpass Rodgers. Regardless, after reading what Kelce is getting and looking at Satele's cap number, it is ridiculous. I wonder though why the axe has not been brought out yet. Maybe we are waiting to see what the FA market looks like? We have 37.5M in cap space and almost 42M if we cut him. We have the money to get a quality center and a guard possibly. I don't know what happens in FA, but I would almost be happy if the one acquisition we make is a quality Center. I think it is the most essential addition to what this team needs. It would be my first priority!

[esmort]

This deal was done with a year remaining on Kelce's contract, so it can be considered somewhat discounted. There are clauses that can increase the value to $40.1m over six years, so the APY range is $6.25m - $6.68m/year. We already expect Mack to get nearly $9m/year. This deal probably puts EDS and/or BdlP in the $7m/year range.

 

Looks like its back loaded so really the Eagles are only on the hook for ~4yr/$16 million and the big parts, the $6 mil + years don't start until the 4th year, and than they can dump him after one expensive year.  I would definitely take EDS or DLP on a similarly structured contract (depending on clauses).

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/jason-kelce/function.opendir/

[Superman]

Looks like its back loaded so really the Eagles are only on the hook for ~4yr/$16 million and the big parts, the $6 mil + years don't start until the 4th year, and than they can dump him after one expensive year.  I would definitely take EDS or DLP on a similarly structured contract (depending on clauses).

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/jason-kelce/function.opendir/

 

His base salaries are guaranteed through 2016. Assuming that's a full guarantee (which it might not be), releasing him before then accelerates those base salaries + whatever remains of the $6m signing bonus. After 2016, cutting him would result in a $2.4m cap penalty.

 

In all, a pretty fair contract. I'd structure it with more guaranteed money and higher base salaries in the first three years, and a slightly lower signing bonus, so that you can avoid the increasing cap hits in future years. But either way, it's set up reasonably well. If we did this with EDS or BdlP, I'd be okay with that. But I think the total value and APY for either of them would be higher. The structure could still work, though.

[esmort]

His base salaries are guaranteed through 2016. Assuming that's a full guarantee (which it might not be), releasing him before then accelerates those base salaries + whatever remains of the $6m signing bonus. After 2016, cutting him would result in a $2.4m cap penalty.

 

In all, a pretty fair contract. I'd structure it with more guaranteed money and higher base salaries in the first three years, and a slightly lower signing bonus, so that you can avoid the increasing cap hits in future years. But either way, it's set up reasonably well. If we did this with EDS or BdlP, I'd be okay with that. But I think the total value and APY for either of them would be higher. The structure could still work, though.

 

You think the average for EDS is DLP is going to be more than $6.2 mil/yr?  If they want much more than that I would almost just a soon go ahead and give Mack ~$9 mil per year

[Superman]

You think the average for EDS is DLP is going to be more than $6.2 mil/yr?  If they want much more than that I would almost just a soon go ahead and give Mack ~$9 mil per year

 

Based on what Kelce got, yes. He didn't even hit free agency, no bidding war, no leverage, and he got $6.25m/year. I'm assuming EDS and BdlP will get $7m/year.

 

And that's still better than $9m/year for Mack, over a five or six year deal. Guaranteed money, signing bonus, etc., all has a serious impact on the way the contract affects the cap, now and in the future.