First Pick in the Draft Playoff standings

[Jason_]

i believe its a coin flip, but i could be wrong

granted this is from about.com and not an offical NFL website but I believe each is true...there are definitely a couple of steps before the coin-toss, which is simply a last resort.

• Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage. The team with the lowest strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and picks ahead of all other teams with the same record.

• Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.

• As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.

[Xfiles]

I think Jason's point about the multiple positions of need is very valid, and I wouldnt reject it out of hand if the Top prospect is of questionable talent, athleticism, or brains(like Jamarcus russell) But Luck appears to be such a talent, maybe a once in a lifetime type of talent that IF (huge if) we even had the chance to draft him, IMO they either have to take him, or take not only multiple draft picks from another team, but also a Quarterback from an NFL roster that our FO believes can be the guy in the future. I would still cringe at the thought of not taking Luck. The Guy is tearing the butt out of College football right now. He is Clearly doing for Stanford what Manning has done here for years. Carry the team despite its flaws.

[Xfiles]

First pick here we come!!

If we cant beat KC at home, we might not win a game ladies and gents.

[bavanlan]

No, that's not what I said. Of course there are going to be busts and not just "any" QB can be groomed into a quality franchise QB. The point is, the Colts are in a position to look at more than just someone who is NFL ready from day 1. We can look closely at all QB propsects...see how effective they are given the team they have around them. Look at the type of throws they make on a game to game basis. Look at their pocket presence, ability to side step pressure, ability to throw on the run, ability to read through progressions and take the dump off pass instead of forcing the ball, are they throwing the ball to the right spot in coverage or are they throwing mostly to receivers who have beaten man coverage? We can closely examine all of these and many other aspects and not just take the guy who everyone says is ready to start now.

No argument.

So I guess here is the best way I can think to put it....we're all going by the assumption that Manning will be back to play out at least the majority of his career...I've said numerous times as have the others on the "trade back" wagon that if Manning cannot return then everything changes....so we're assuming 2-4 years to be able to work with the new qB.....so, would you take the guy who's the "next Manning" with #1 pick knowing we don't need him to be the next Manning, or do you take a calculated risk on a guy like say Ryan Tannehil or Nick Foles who, with some very minor improvements, could be groomed to be the next Philip Rivers by year 2-3 which is when we'd need him to start knowing we also pick up anywhere from 2-5 additional mid round picks this year PLUS the potential for 1-2 additional first round picks next year and possible an extra mid round pick or 2 next year as well? I'm not saying to pass up on Luck because Peyton can groom "anyone" into the next franchise QB. I'm saying that, with Manning returning for 2-4 years then we have the luxury of being able to take a calculated risk on a guy who's not as NFL ready considering the additional talent we could acquire with the multitude of additional picks.

My position would be that should the opportunity arise to draft this early (a position we're unlikely to see again until Manning leaves, assuming no additional injuries), at a position this important, you do your darndest to make sure the pick is a pick that's going to be around for 15 years. I have no problems taking a calculated risk at the end of round 1 (though I think Polian starts taking his in round 3) for a position that's not an immediate need, but when you have one shot to get it right, to potentially set your team up for the next 15 years, you HAVE to make sure you get it right; a calculated risk is still a risk, and I don't think that risk is worth taking.

(Note: the above position assumes for argument's sake that there is such a sure thing, a position which I don't take. Perhaps the better phrasing would be "surer thing", but I digress)

Valid point...however my point still holds more water than you claim and here's why....people are constantly comparing Manning/Luck to Montana/Young, Favre/Rodgers, Bledsoe/Brady. Only one of these teams went out and spent their first round pick on the next QB and that was GB with Rodgers and theirs was a late first round pick. I don't believe for a second (though this is merely my opinion) that if GB has the #1 pick overall in that draft they would still have drafted a QB. So the only team that paid anywhere close to the price we'd pay to get Luck was GB with a #24th overall pick. San Fran picked up a QB from another team and NE spent a late round pick for Brady. Neither team was so desperate to find the next franchise QB that they used a first round pick to do so because they knew they could take a more calculated risk on a guy with a lot of talent that just needed some good coaching to make him elite.

I don't like interjecting Brady into this comparison. I still find it difficult to believe that he was ever drafted to take over for Bledsoe.

But with that said, I think you're ignoring one other key aspect, which is none of those teams ever had the opportunity to draft a talent like Luck is being described. Sure, no team was desperate enough to blow a mid-1st or earlier on a QB with questions, but I firmly believe that Green Bay takes a Luck-level QB #1OVR if they had it or that if such a talent is available for SF they draft him. That's the other factor that makes this unique; people aren't just clamoring to draft a QB, I'm not. If we had the #1OVR pick last year, I would have wanted to avoid Cam Newton (which may be a mistake, who knows). I would have avoided a Matthew Stafford or Matt Ryan. But when you get the opportunity to accumulate unique and elite talent (assumed for argument's sake), you do it. All those teams you mentioned didn't spend the pick on a QB because there wasn't a QB whose marginal value was great enough to warrant the pick. There also wasn't a talent like Luck available to them.

[Jaric]

If we DON'T draft a QB with that pick, as fans we should have ever right to storm the colts offices and remove Polian and Caldwell through force.

[Balzer40]

No argument.

My position would be that should the opportunity arise to draft this early (a position we're unlikely to see again until Manning leaves, assuming no additional injuries), at a position this important, you do your darndest to make sure the pick is a pick that's going to be around for 15 years. I have no problems taking a calculated risk at the end of round 1 (though I think Polian starts taking his in round 3) for a position that's not an immediate need, but when you have one shot to get it right, to potentially set your team up for the next 15 years, you HAVE to make sure you get it right; a calculated risk is still a risk, and I don't think that risk is worth taking.

(Note: the above position assumes for argument's sake that there is such a sure thing, a position which I don't take. Perhaps the better phrasing would be "surer thing", but I digress)

I don't like interjecting Brady into this comparison. I still find it difficult to believe that he was ever drafted to take over for Bledsoe.

But with that said, I think you're ignoring one other key aspect, which is none of those teams ever had the opportunity to draft a talent like Luck is being described. Sure, no team was desperate enough to blow a mid-1st or earlier on a QB with questions, but I firmly believe that Green Bay takes a Luck-level QB #1OVR if they had it or that if such a talent is available for SF they draft him. That's the other factor that makes this unique; people aren't just clamoring to draft a QB, I'm not. If we had the #1OVR pick last year, I would have wanted to avoid Cam Newton (which may be a mistake, who knows). I would have avoided a Matthew Stafford or Matt Ryan. But when you get the opportunity to accumulate unique and elite talent (assumed for argument's sake), you do it. All those teams you mentioned didn't spend the pick on a QB because there wasn't a QB whose marginal value was great enough to warrant the pick. There also wasn't a talent like Luck available to them.

100% agree Bav. It would be complete and utter nonsense to pass on a guy like Luck if you're in the posistion to draft him. I really think that many people do not understand the unique ability this kid has. An ability that very very rarely comes along. This kid has complete control over the offense, he makes all the calls from the line of scrimmage and understands exactly what the defense is doing all the time. Have you ever heard of a QB having that kind of control and intelligence in college? Because even Manning did not have that ability when he was in college. Manning had questions about him coming out of college and Luck has none. Does that mean that he's guaranteed to succeed? Of course not, but he is probably the absolute closest thing to a sure thing that its possible to get.

[theking213]

I don't think the Colts will get the #1 pick

After looking at the Dolphins schedule I don't see a winnable game for them.

At Jets

Broncos

At Giants

At Chiefs

Redskins

Buffalo

At Dallas

Raiders

Eagles

At Buffalo

At Patriots

Jets

The Colts will get the #2 pick and that's perfectly fine.

[Balzer40]

I don't think the Colts will get the #1 pick

After looking at the Dolphins schedule I don't see a winnable game for them.

At Jets

Broncos

At Giants

At Chiefs

Redskins

Buffalo

At Dallas

Raiders

Eagles

At Buffalo

At Patriots

Jets

The Colts will get the #2 pick and that's perfectly fine.

Well, I don't see a winnable game for the Colts either. One could argue that Jax is winnable but so was KC. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, when you can't beat a bad team that spots you a 17 point lead, then winning any game is going to be very difficult. Miami still has a decent defense and that alone gives them a shot for an upset or 2.

[theking213]

Well, I don't see a winnable game for the Colts either. One could argue that Jax is winnable but so was KC. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, when you can't beat a bad team that spots you a 17 point lead, then winning any game is going to be very difficult. Miami still has a decent defense and that alone gives them a shot for an upset or 2.

Very true.

All I know is that if the Colts get the number one pick it will be the most talked about topic of the offseason.

[Coltsman1788]

Good. Let them have Luck. I would much rather have Kellen Moore. Have we been over looking him? Kellen is in the running for the most TD passes in college football history. I don't see how he is not as good if not better than Andrew Luck. But I guess that's my opinion. Watching him tonight, this guy is on fire. He is accurate, and smart about the way he runs the boise state offense. He would make a true heir to Peyton.

I actually like that Kellen Moore kid myself. Only thing that concerns me with him is his height as he seems a bit too short to play quarterback in the NFL. He is very intelligent though. Although I still prefer Luck if available, I wouldn't be angry if the Colts went in a different direction in the first round which strengthened the team in the immediate future and then picked up this kid or another good qb prospect in the early 2nd.

[coltsfaninsandiego]

I don't think the Colts will get the #1 pick

After looking at the Dolphins schedule I don't see a winnable game for them.

At Jets

Broncos

At Giants

At Chiefs

Redskins

Buffalo

At Dallas

Raiders

Eagles

At Buffalo

At Patriots

Jets

The Colts will get the #2 pick and that's perfectly fine.

Don't lose your faith. We still got this. #1 Draft Pick for the Colts of 2011 is our birthright.

[CR91]

I don't think the Colts will get the #1 pick

After looking at the Dolphins schedule I don't see a winnable game for them.

At Jets

Broncos

At Giants

At Chiefs

Redskins

Buffalo

At Dallas

Raiders

Eagles

At Buffalo

At Patriots

Jets

The Colts will get the #2 pick and that's perfectly fine.

they can beat the chiefs and maybe the eagles