key statistics of NFL contenders

[Jules]

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/27/key-statistics-of-n-f-l-contenders/#more-109111

[Synthetic]

Great stuff Jules :clap:

Atlanta is bound and determined for a first round exit in the playoffs as it happens every year, and that article pretty much reinforces it.

Never forget 2010, 13-3 winning close games on that weak schedule and got totally blown out in the playoffs. Also don't forget last year, where they would have been shut out if it weren't for that one mistake the Giants made.

I did some statistic recounting the other day and I was floored to learn the Bears were in the bottom 5 of ranked offenses in the league. I expected them to be somewhere in the middle, so that was a bit shocking to me. If they beat GB, I think they have the division, but I'm not going to over look it this time how they've lost to good teams, and are blowing out weak and average ones.

Once again; New England is the real team that runs the table, and no one is talking about them. They are running the ball so effectively, this is probably the most I've seen them run it in the past 5 years (at least) and their defense has improved a bit. I think they are going to shock the world in the playoffs since they don't get talked about much, and probably another huge blow out before reaching the title game similar to last year. This Pats team is a huge improvement to last years on all 3 sides of the ball, and still no one talks about it.

[21isSuperman]

One could take the Falcons' stat either way. You could say they are good in close games (7-1), or you could say they aren't as good as their record because they have had so many close games.

I love the Pats' one "No. 1 Everything"

[21isSuperman]

The article essentially describes why each of the listed teams could win the Super Bowl. Here is a video countering it:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-thursday-night-football/0ap2000000102821/Contenders-fatal-flaws

[BOTT]

Great stuff Jules :clap:

Atlanta is bound and determined for a first round exit in the playoffs as it happens every year, and that article pretty much reinforces it.

Never forget 2010, 13-3 winning close games on that weak schedule and got totally blown out in the playoffs. Also don't forget last year, where they would have been shut out if it weren't for that one mistake the Giants made.

I did some statistic recounting the other day and I was floored to learn the Bears were in the bottom 5 of ranked offenses in the league. I expected them to be somewhere in the middle, so that was a bit shocking to me. If they beat GB, I think they have the division, but I'm not going to over look it this time how they've lost to good teams, and are blowing out weak and average ones.

Once again; New England is the real team that runs the table, and no one is talking about them. They are running the ball so effectively, this is probably the most I've seen them run it in the past 5 years (at least) and their defense has improved a bit. I think they are going to shock the world in the playoffs since they don't get talked about much, and probably another huge blow out before reaching the title game similar to last year. This Pats team is a huge improvement to last years on all 3 sides of the ball, and still no one talks about it.

because like last year they don't beat any good teams...unless u count their early win vs denver. and they might get a blow out....if they get to play against tim tebow again.

[Jules]

because like last year they don't beat any good teams...unless u count their early win vs denver. and they might get a blow out....if they get to play against tim tebow again.

It depends. It's not just about the QB. If Denver is going to beat Houston/NE in the playoffs they gotta run the football. And if they don't fall behind Manning has to stick with the run more too. And if they do fall behind Manning still has to stick with the run more IMO.

This years Texans/Broncos game: Texans 131 rushing yards to the Broncos 52 rushing yards.

This years Broncos/Patriots game: Patriots 205 rushing yards to the Broncos 60 rushing yards.

I honestly think NE does have a good shot this post season if they stick with the balanced offensive attack in the playoffs. They seem pretty committed this year to running it well too.

[Synthetic]

It depends. It's not just about the QB. If Denver is going to beat Houston/NE in the playoffs they gotta run the football. And if they don't fall behind Manning has to stick with the run more too. And if they do fall behind Manning still has to stick with the run more IMO.

This years Texans/Broncos game: Texans 131 rushing yards to the Broncos 52 rushing yards.

This years Broncos/Patriots game: Patriots 205 rushing yards to the Broncos 60 rushing yards.

I honestly think NE does have a good shot this post season if they stick with the balanced offensive attack in the playoffs. They seem pretty committed this year to running it well too.

The running game will be the death of Denver in the playoffs. I don't care if you have Unitas or Montana at QB, ask them how much the running game matters. Those Super Bowl runs the Niners made in the 80's, what don't get talked about much is they would pound the ball down your throat. Specifically the 1984 season, Montana didn't even play that well in the NFC Championship, but they ran the ball very well.

[Synthetic]

because like last year they don't beat any good teams...unless u count their early win vs denver. and they might get a blow out....if they get to play against tim tebow again.

They already beat Denver once by a great margin. My money is on them to do it again.

[The Peytonator]

If New England represents the AFC again......the idea makes me throw up a little.

[BOTT]

It depends. It's not just about the QB. If Denver is going to beat Houston/NE in the playoffs they gotta run the football. And if they don't fall behind Manning has to stick with the run more too. And if they do fall behind Manning still has to stick with the run more IMO.

This years Texans/Broncos game: Texans 131 rushing yards to the Broncos 52 rushing yards.

This years Broncos/Patriots game: Patriots 205 rushing yards to the Broncos 60 rushing yards.

I honestly think NE does have a good shot this post season if they stick with the balanced offensive attack in the playoffs. They seem pretty committed this year to running it well too.

that's misleading considering broncos fell behind early in both games. denver's running game isn't great, but it isn't horrible either...although time will tell what it will be like with mcgahee out

[BOTT]

They already beat Denver once by a great margin. My money is on them to do it again.

it was 10 pts and denver shot themselves in the foot early in that game. not saying the broncos will win, but i believe it will be a much better contest....although i do worry about the pats offense vs broncos defense

[chad72]

http://fifthdown.blo...rs/#more-109111

Are you sure you are not a closet Pats fan? (j/k)

Sometimes, teams tighten things up for the postseason and can become a considerably different team in the postseason. So regular season stats do not reflect accurately how a team will do in the postseason. For some teams, switches go on and for some, it goes off.

Falcons for the worst. Giants - they were bottom of the league in rushing and then they dominate time of possession with outstanding D and a good running game in the postseason in 2011. Colts of 2006 - we all know the story how we became the #1 rush D and #1 rush O in the postseason.

Steelers and Packers in 2008 & 2010 were top 5 in the league in pass D. But the 2009 Saints gave up yards but were league high in INTs, relied on turnovers to get their victories. 2006 Colts - #2 vs the pass (who needs to pass against them when they can run, right? ).

2007 giants - I think were 11th against the pass. 2011 Giants - 19th against the run, 29th against the pass

What do the above show? Nothing, in fact. They just show that while not all teams change their characteristics come post season, the teams that do change their weaknesses and adapt tend to win in the post season. Coaching is a HUGE part.

That is why Tom Coughlin has been able to match Belichick. But undoubtedly, those 2 stand at the top right now and I would not bet against either of them. We will see what John Fox is made of in the postseason. You never know, the turnovers that the Denver D has not been producing as much, the fumbles they have not been recovering, they could recover in the postseason. But that Brady guy, hate to give him credit, he would rather take a sack and punt than throw an INT most of the time and live to fight another day. We will find out how it goes, should be an exciting one again, the post season.

I would just not write off the Texans yet. They do not turn the ball over much either, very much like the Pats, and still IMO will be the biggest post season threat to the Pats once they get healthy on D.

[Jules]

Are you sure you are not a closet Pats fan? (j/k)

Sometimes, teams tighten things up for the postseason and can become a considerably different team in the postseason. So regular season stats do not reflect accurately how a team will do in the postseason. For some teams, switches go on and for some, it goes off.

Falcons for the worst. Giants - they were bottom of the league in rushing and then they dominate time of possession with outstanding D and a good running game in the postseason in 2011. Colts of 2006 - we all know the story how we became the #1 rush D and #1 rush O in the postseason.

Steelers and Packers in 2008 & 2010 were top 5 in the league in pass D. But the 2009 Saints gave up yards but were league high in INTs, relied on turnovers to get their victories. 2006 Colts - #2 vs the pass (who needs to pass against them when they can run, right? ).

2007 giants - I think were 11th against the pass. 2011 Giants - 19th against the run, 29th against the pass

What do the above show? Nothing, in fact. They just show that while not all teams change their characteristics come post season, the teams that do change their weaknesses and adapt tend to win in the post season. Coaching is a HUGE part.

That is why Tom Coughlin has been able to match Belichick. But undoubtedly, those 2 stand at the top right now and I would not bet against either of them. We will see what John Fox is made of in the postseason. You never know, the turnovers that the Denver D has not been producing as much, the fumbles they have not been recovering, they could recover in the postseason. But that Brady guy, hate to give him credit, he would rather take a sack and punt than throw an INT most of the time and live to fight another day. We will find out how it goes, should be an exciting one again, the post season.

I would just not write off the Texans yet. They do not turn the ball over much either, very much like the Pats, and still IMO will be the biggest post season threat to the Pats once they get healthy on D.

You know me chad. Over the years as you have seen my posts I yearn for nothing but Tom Brady and NE magic. But, I secretly suspect southwest and I have crushes on the NE system and ways of doing things at times. Those bastages know their football, we can't deny this.

I think this was an article that was pretty decent. All the division leaders seem to have a solid chance of potentially reaching the big one with various strengths and weaknesses. Just some teams don't match up as well with others.

Also don't forget last years Giants run game improved greatly in the SB run. Or at least became much less abysmal. I remember them not having major issues I think running on the Falcons/Packers in the playoffs. I am not sure anyone could run on SF. And in the SB I still think NE should have run it more this time around. In 2007 I felt like the Giants almost shut down most of the Pats offense. In this one I felt like there were adjustments the Pats could have made and one would have been running the ball more since I think they were getting good yards when they did it.

But, you are right. Some things will tighten up for some teams in the playoffs that we might not see coming.

That is why Tom Coughlin has been able to match Belichick. But undoubtedly, those 2 stand at the top right now and I would not bet against either of them.

Yep. The one thing standing in the way of Brady/BB having 5 rings is Coughlin's Giants. Like you I have a hard time counting out either NE or the G Men in any postseason.

[oldunclemark]

They already beat Denver once by a great margin. My money is on them to do it again.

Nobody thinks that Denver of week three is Denver now...