3rd and 4 or Less tendencies

[HtownColt]

Colts

Facing third-and-4 or less, Indianapolis has been compelled to throw:

• 5 runs, 3 first downs
  
• 24 passes, 9 first downs
  

While the conversion rate is better when they run it, they've done it infrequently and its shows a lack of faith in their ground game.

Mod edit: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/42441/telling-info-on-downs-and-distances

Note: Please provide links when quoting an article from somewhere else. Failing to do so is plagiarism and possibly copyright infringement.

Edited October 18, 2012 by Superman
added link

[YOUR GM]

I'd be interested to see how many of those pass attempts on 3rd down came out of the empty set, and it's conversion rate. I've seen a lot more 5 wide since Pagano hasn't been able to coach, and it's been very ineffective upon first glance. Somebody needs to "Buddy Ryan" Bruce Arians so he'll snap out of his obsession with "chuck and duck" football.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeLxKJyIh4w

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'd be interested to see how many of those pass attempts on 3rd down came out of the empty set, and it's conversion rate. I've seen a lot more 5 wide since Pagano hasn't been able to coach, and it's been very ineffective upon first glance. Somebody needs to "Buddy Ryan" Bruce Arians so he'll snap out of his obsession with "chuck and duck" football.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeLxKJyIh4w

It's not exactly what you are looking for, but it does show the personnel groupings.

It seems the site that the OP collected his information neglected to include QB scrambles.

[HtownColt]

It's not exactly what you are looking for, but it does show the personnel groupings.

It seems the site that the OP collected his information neglected to include QB scrambles.

i guess he did. I got it from Paul Kahursky of espn.com who covers the AFC South http://espn.go.com/b...s-and-distances

but not really because a scramble starts off as a pass play so thats probably where he put the scrambles

[FireJimCaldwell]

i guess he did. I got it from Paul Kahursky of espn.com who covers the AFC South http://espn.go.com/b...s-and-distances

but not really because a scramble starts off as a pass play so thats probably where he put the scrambles

I agree with that concept, that a scramble does start off as a pass play, but it still seems he neglected it since the first down totals he/you posted fail to reflect the 4 first downs that Luck scrambled. It seems he ignored it all together and didn't count those plays as passing or rushing plays. There have been total of 33 plays that fit that split/stat and he had 29.

• 5 runs, 3 first downs
  
• 24 passes, 9 first downs
  

[manningstheman]

Colts

Facing third-and-4 or less, Indianapolis has been compelled to throw:

• 5 runs, 3 first downs
  
• 24 passes, 9 first downs
  

While the conversion rate is better when they run it, they've done it infrequently and its shows a lack of faith in their ground game.

Well, 3rd and 3 or more is usually a passing situation for most teams. Do not know what you want from this thread. Why do we not run it more? Well, we stink at running the ball. Have for a long time. Nothing new there. Its a passing league now. Very few teams run the ball on 3rd down anymore.

[YOUR GM]

It's not exactly what you are looking for, but it does show the personnel groupings.

It seems the site that the OP collected his information neglected to include QB scrambles.

Yeah, thanks but I was looking more so at formations than personel. There's been plenty of times that Arians has called the empty set with 3 Wr, 1TE,1RB, or 3 WR, 2 TE & even 1 WR, 3 TE, 1 RB.

I re-watched the Jets game to see how many times we went to it. While not as much as we did in the Packers game, Arians still called for the empty set 10 times in that game. Only 3 completions for a net gain of 15 yards came from it. Of the other 7 plays, Luck was sacked once, intercepted once, and the rest being incomplete passes. Pretty much, whenever you see the Colts lined up in the empty set, it's almost the same as a loss of down. We don't have the line to block for it when they blitz, and/or the route combinations aren't zone friendly when they drop 7-8 back into coverage against it.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Yeah, thanks but I was looking more so at formations than personel. There's been plenty of times that Arians has called the empty set with 3 Wr, 1TE,1RB, or 3 WR, 2 TE & even 1 WR, 3 TE, 1 RB.

I re-watched the Jets game to see how many times we went to it. While not as much as we did in the Packers game, Arians still called for the empty set 10 times in that game. Only 3 completions for a net gain of 15 yards came from it. Of the other 7 plays, Luck was sacked once, intercepted once, and the rest being incomplete passes. Pretty much, whenever you see the Colts lined up in the empty set, it's almost the same as a loss of down. We don't have the line to block for it when they blitz, and/or the route combinations aren't zone friendly when they drop 7-8 back into coverage against it.

The only way to really come up with what you are wanting is to chart it via film study.

An empty set can be a wondrous weapon with the right QB back there. At this point I don't think Luck has the experience/feel/knowledge to be able to run it as much as Arians has been running it. That will come with time, but I don't think he is there yet. The best way to overcome something is by doing so there will be benefits by using it so much. It just comes at a bit of a cost until he is up to speed with it.

[Superman]

Well, 3rd and 3 or more is usually a passing situation for most teams. Do not know what you want from this thread. Why do we not run it more? Well, we stink at running the ball. Have for a long time. Nothing new there. Its a passing league now. Very few teams run the ball on 3rd down anymore.

OP should have provided a link. This is a snippet of a Kuharsky article from ESPN. I'm sure he's just posting it for discussion.

[RGIII]

The only way to really come up with what you are wanting is to chart it via film study.

An empty set can be a wondrous weapon with the right QB back there. At this point I don't think Luck has the experience/feel/knowledge to be able to run it as much as Arians has been running it. That will come with time, but I don't think he is there yet. The best way to overcome something is by doing so there will be benefits by using it so much. It just comes at a bit of a cost until he is up to speed with it.

The play design on your empty back sets is atrocious, though. Arians seems to love routes that take a while to develop but your offensive line can't dependably block for any length of time and Luck is no Big Ben.

[manningstheman]

OP should have provided a link. This is a snippet of a Kuharsky article from ESPN. I'm sure he's just posting it for discussion.

I understand, and thanks for the reply clearing it up. Just saying, very few teams run the ball on 3rd down anymore. Unless it a couple yards.

[YOUR GM]

The only way to really come up with what you are wanting is to chart it via film study.

An empty set can be a wondrous weapon with the right QB back there. At this point I don't think Luck has the experience/feel/knowledge to be able to run it as much as Arians has been running it. That will come with time, but I don't think he is there yet. The best way to overcome something is by doing so there will be benefits by using it so much. It just comes at a bit of a cost until he is up to speed with it.

Oh, I'm not suggesting that the empty set itself is the problem. I've seen New England, Greenbay and New Orleans run a very efficient offense out of it at times. What I'm saying is, Arians situational play calling out of that set is horrible, and either the play designs just are not getting receivers open quick enough, or Luck is too focused on the big play. Eitherway, that's a coaching issue. If Luck is not making the correct reads out of that set, the offense needs to be simplified until he's ready to run it the way the coach wants. That's on the coach to make the necessary adjustments. I doubt we see that though, since Arians has stated in the past that he doesn't believe in adjusting his offense.

One thing I've noticed is the prolific offenses that use the empty set go to it most frequently on 1st down. Arians appears to call it at random (and frequently.) I don't like the empty set on 3rd and short at all, especially when you rarely run draws out of that set. The defense pretty much knows you're going to pass before the ball is even snapped.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Oh, I'm not suggesting that the empty set itself is the problem. I've seen New England, Greenbay and New Orleans run a very efficient offense out of it at times. What I'm saying is, Arians situational play calling out of that set is horrible, and either the play designs just are not getting receivers open quick enough, or Luck is too focused on the big play. Eitherway, that's a coaching issue. If Luck is not making the correct reads out of that set, the offense needs to be simplified until he's ready to run it the way the coach wants. That's on the coach to make the necessary adjustments. I doubt we see that though, since Arians has stated in the past that he doesn't believe in adjusting his offense.

One thing I've noticed is the prolific offenses that use the empty set go to it most frequently on 1st down. Arians appears to call it at random (and frequently.) I don't like the empty set on 3rd and short at all, especially when you rarely run draws out of that set. The defense pretty much knows you're going to pass before the ball is even snapped.

I agree wholeheartedly. Each of those teams also has an experienced top of the line Quarterback and Luck doesn't have that experience or ability yet. I'd add Pittsburgh, New York & Denver to that list as well of teams that can use it to their advantage. I love the concept of spreading a team out and even when the defense tries to overload the offense with blitzers those QB's usually know where to go with a hot route or two. It's almost like Arians by design doesn't have the hot short safe route implemented. A lot of his plays seems more like the run & shoot with the longer routes that take longer to develop as opposed to more of an intermediate scheme. In years past I wish the Colts would have utilized it more and was looking forward to using it in 2011 with Manning(Wayne/Garcon/Collie/Clark/Tammee), but we all know that didn't happen.

With a guy with Luck's athletic ability the QB draw should be a weapon from that set. The pure 5WR set has been used 10 times with 10 passes, and that isn't a surprise since during Arians time in Pittsburgh as OC he ran the pure 5wr empty set 46 times and throwing 44 times. I don't know whether the two runs were designed Draws, or a QB sneak, or whether the QB was forced from the pocket by scrambling.

I have felt Arians has been extremely predictable with his play calling, and he hasn't put Luck in the best situations to succeed. Maybe he wants the offense to be a certain way and refuses to alter and it and wants Luck to work through it with whatever the results are.

[YOUR GM]

I have felt Arians has been extremely predictable with his play calling, and he hasn't put Luck in the best situations to succeed. Maybe he wants the offense to be a certain way and refuses to alter and it and wants Luck to work through it with whatever the results are.

The bolded is my biggest complaint and worry with Arians. It's something Steeler fans have cited as the main reason they hated him so much. Good coordinators adapt and build their gameplan around the talent they have around them. Arians is much in the mold of Mike Martz, in that he stubbornly sticks to his system, regardless of the outcome. It's as if his agenda to be regarded as a genius outweighs the team agenda of winning games. Pagano said when he came here that he felt the offense needed to protect the defense with long, time consuming drives (giving the defense rest.) Have we seen anything in Arians gameplan that even remotely resembles that so far? All these deep routes he calls (successful or not) promote more of a quick strike, fewer possession offense than it does a ball control one. It puzzles me why Pagano chose him, knowing his tendencies as a coordinator over the years.

[lollygagger8]

How bout you let Luck run it for the 1st and just slide, or run out of bounds.

[FireJimCaldwell]

The bolded is my biggest complaint and worry with Arians. It's something Steeler fans have cited as the main reason they hated him so much. Good coordinators adapt and build their gameplan around the talent they have around them. Arians is much in the mold of Mike Martz, in that he stubbornly sticks to his system, regardless of the outcome. It's as if his agenda to be regarded as a genius outweighs the team agenda of winning games. Pagano said when he came here that he felt the offense needed to protect the defense with long, time consuming drives (giving the defense rest.) Have we seen anything in Arians gameplan that even remotely resembles that so far? All these deep routes he calls (successful or not) promote more of a quick strike, fewer possession offense than it does a ball control one. It puzzles me why Pagano chose him, knowing his tendencies as a coordinator over the years.

Arians was one of the last coaches I thought would be a potential hire after the Colts hired Pagano. It didn't feel right, from the mantra that Pagano was preaching. It's almost like the family discussing buying a car for a teenager and wanting the safe/economical Accord/Camry and then bringing home a brand new Vette. Pagano preached balance and smash mouth, and I do believe the way Arians went away from that in Pittsburgh is one of the reasons he was run off.

I agree that good coordinators adapt to change, sorta like the guy in Denver, going from Orton to Tebow and installing a set that put him in better situations, and then altering it again when 18 signed there. This is also an example as to why Christensen was a horrible OC last year when he continued to push the Manning offense on Collins/Painter as opposed to altering it and going with something that would allow either of them to be in better situations. Each team has a base goal line scheme that could have easily been added to, and tweaked even with the shorter off-season. As soon as Manning went under the knife for the 2nd time, then the whole offensive staff/team should have implemented a different system.

I've seen comments saying that other coaches have coddled RG3, Weeden, and Tannehill by using shorter routes. I don't know if coddled is the good term but they seem to be putting those guys in better situations. Luck is throwing the ball down field more, not quite as exaggerated as some would like to make one think but I think it is more of their coaches putting them in better situations or capitalizing on their abilities.

Luck ran a hybrid WCO that was heavy on shorter to intermediate passes and he was really efficient at it. My hope for an OC was one that had ties to the WCO just so that his transition to the pros would be easier/quicker. That didn't happen. Tannehill is running basically the same offense(his OC was his HC @ A&M), Shanahan has altered his WCO to incorporate things that RG3 does best.

This does not include Wilson's throws from last night.

[Jindrake]

How bout you let Luck run it for the 1st and just slide, or run out of bounds.

So we drafted our quarterback to be a running back? I understand the charts posted show the sucess that has been had with it but seems to me like it is just putting Luck in line for taking a hit.

[dgambill]

I think we are getting too worked up over too small a sample size. We are like 1/3 of the season into year 1 of a rebuilding process. One of our best route runners and hands guy is out for the season, we got two rookie TEs, a new receiver to the offense, rookie rb, and a patch work line. I agree we have a good solid qb but he is a rookie too but I'm sure Arians is trying to run the plays he believes we execute well more so than plays designed for down and distance etc. I agree we haven't seen a lot of imagination out of Bruce but I'm not worried about that. That will come with time and the guys mastering the offense first. If by week 12 we still are running the same plays then perhaps thats an issue. If by year 2 we aren't progressing ok...but man this isn't like Peytons teams of old where we have been running the same offense for 10 years with the same people and they know exactly what to do and get into the best play and using winks and hand gestures and nods. We are soo spoiled expecting the offense to run like a sports car. Fact is we got like an old GTO. We are piecing it together...and it is loud at times and can sure spin the tires but the timing is off and its leaking a bit of oil and needs work. Give this O some time...we will get that engine roaring, a new coat of paint, and that thing will be turning out great 1/4 mile times.

[YOUR GM]

I think we are getting too worked up over too small a sample size. We are like 1/3 of the season into year 1 of a rebuilding process. One of our best route runners and hands guy is out for the season, we got two rookie TEs, a new receiver to the offense, rookie rb, and a patch work line. I agree we have a good solid qb but he is a rookie too but I'm sure Arians is trying to run the plays he believes we execute well more so than plays designed for down and distance etc. I agree we haven't seen a lot of imagination out of Bruce but I'm not worried about that. That will come with time and the guys mastering the offense first. If by week 12 we still are running the same plays then perhaps thats an issue. If by year 2 we aren't progressing ok...but man this isn't like Peytons teams of old where we have been running the same offense for 10 years with the same people and they know exactly what to do and get into the best play and using winks and hand gestures and nods. We are soo spoiled expecting the offense to run like a sports car. Fact is we got like an old GTO. We are piecing it together...and it is loud at times and can sure spin the tires but the timing is off and its leaking a bit of oil and needs work. Give this O some time...we will get that engine roaring, a new coat of paint, and that thing will be turning out great 1/4 mile times.

The problem is, this is Arians MO everywhere he goes. Doesn't matter if he's coaching rookies or seasoned vets. He is simply obsessed with the vertical passing game and his situational play calling has always been suspect as an offensive coordinator. I'm trying to be blindly optimistic and ignore all past evidence that tells me he's a poor coordinator, but nothing I've seen from him this season has done anything to shore up my faith in him running our offense going forward.

[dgambill]

The problem is, this is Arians MO everywhere he goes. Doesn't matter if he's coaching rookies or seasoned vets. He is simply obsessed with the vertical passing game and his situational play calling has always been suspect as an offensive coordinator. I'm trying to be blindly optimistic and ignore all past evidence that tells me he's a poor coordinator, but nothing I've seen from him this season has done anything to shore up my faith in him running our offense going forward.

I've never thought Pittsburgh's offense has ever looked vanilla or one dimensional. I've always liked their offense with the exception of the last 2 years due to injuries on their front line. Granted they did go verticle alot but they had the protection and a qb that looked down the field. To be honest I've never thought Rothlisburger was exceptional at reading the defense thus why he has had to hold the ball so long. I think Luck will be better at anticipating throws and utilizing the offense. I'm not going to sit here and defend Arians by saying he Sean Payton or anything...far from it. But I do think he has always called pretty good games over the years for us and Pitt. It is up to the players to execute.

What I am trying to say is I believe right now...we aren't running the offense he would like to run. Be it injuries or lack of talent on the OL or young wrs I think as the offense comes together we will see more variety and success. I think he calls the plays he has confidence that everyone will be on the same page rather then what may be the best play against the coverages we are seeing or down and distances. It is better to run plays we know and are confortable with then ones that may be the right call but we can't execute (for whatever reason). I just don't think he has the faith in the offense to open it up yet. And considering its just our 6th game into a rebuilding process...I don't blame him. Like I said. If by next year we are seeing poor play calling then I may support moving on but I don't think that is where we are headed. Rothlesburger wasn't happy they changed up their offense and his numbers and their receiver's numbers are down....as are their wins. He coached them to a SB win and another SB appearance. I think Arians is just fine.