AR15 thru 2 games thus far:

[Moosejawcolt]

19 hours ago, DougDew said:

What potential trade are you talking about.  If we would have traded from 4 to 1, instead of CAR going from 9 to 1, we would have taken the best prospect on their board.  And the cost would have been cheap relative to CAR because we were only coming up from 4 and not 9.  Its likely Ballard thought AR was the best prospect and thought nobody else would take him at 4 (In fact, he was very dejected when he heard there was a trade up to 3, so he was figuring that a team was trading up to get AR.  Nope)

 

Desperation is a descriptive word.  Disagree if you want with that word, but I think taking a developmental QB with a low passing floor and a high ceiling at 4 is something other than well-measured, IMO.

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/3WavLQjrdjYpAPv9/?mibextid=D5vuiz

[chad72]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Well, I thought Stroud was clearly superior to AR as a pro prospect (I'm not a modern-day mobility snob), so I see no desperation in trading up to 1 to get him.   I didn't advocate trading up to 1, so I'm not blaming Ballard, but I can understand if others want to make that argument though.

 

I'm not going to die on a hill over the word desperation pick to describe AR.  I'll describe it as expanding tolerances for what level of college competence you expect a player to come into the NFL with...and you expand them now because you failed at finding a QB for the past 5 years.

 

And this stuff about high ceiling is a bit of a false reason.  Lots of kids walking the streets right now have higher ceilings....if a team took the time to teach a kid everything and take the risk he never reaches his ceiling.  The difference is that the guys picked in the top 5 should come out of college equipped with a certain mastery level of skills and plenty of experience, or its not much different than taking a great athlete, because he has a great athletic ceiling, and begin by teaching him the basics of how to throw a ball.

That used to be the case, not as much anymore.

 

With the rookie contract structure affording a cheap QB for at least 4 years before they pick up the option, more swings with more tolerances are happening so that if it hits and they add expensive resources around the QB, winning can happen quickly. Otherwise rinse and repeat. Its on the GM and HC to lay their bets and see it through, IMO.

 

When Mahomes was drafted at No.10 and Allen at No.8, no one felt they were sure things. GMs amping up surrounding support and good coaching have all helped. The tools the QBs had definitely got them their nods too.

That also lowers the already low enough hit rate on QBs but it is what it is.

 

[DougDew]

14 minutes ago, chad72 said:

That used to be the case, not as much anymore.

 

With the rookie contract structure affording a cheap QB for at least 4 years before they pick up the option, more swings with more tolerances are happening so that if it hits and they add expensive resources around the QB, winning can happen quickly. Otherwise rinse and repeat. Its on the GM and HC to lay their bets and see it through, IMO.

 

When Mahomes was drafted at No.10 and Allen at No.8, no one felt they were sure things. GMs amping up surrounding support and good coaching have all helped. The tools the QBs had definitely got them their nods too.

That also lowers the already low enough hit rate on QBs but it is what it is.

 

I guess I think of it as a return on investment decision.  Typically, higher risk means a lower buy in price.  Lower, not higher. 

 

 I think teams are down-playing risks and looking at it like the ceiling is going to be really really high, and that justifies the higher buy in price.   So yeah, they are all trying to find the next hero-Mahomes if they have a shot at it, because they feel that's about the only way to win a SB in the current football landscape.

 

Downplaying risks to focus on ceiling is sort of a desperate move, because you'll probably get fired anyway if you don't take the risk.

[chad72]

26 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I guess I think of it as a return on investment decision.  Typically, higher risk means a lower buy in price.  Lower, not higher. 

 

 I think teams are down-playing risks and looking at it like the ceiling is going to be really really high, and that justifies the higher buy in price.   So yeah, they are all trying to find the next hero-Mahomes if they have a shot at it, because they feel that's about the only way to win a SB in the current football landscape.

 

Downplaying risks to focus on ceiling is sort of a desperate move, because you'll probably get fired anyway if you don't take the risk.

 

It has to be somewhat calculated with the blessing of the owner and the HC to take a risk because if you don't, the firing will happen much sooner than later. It is a business from the owner point of view, and unless the winning takes a huge backseat, it is as calculated as desperate as it might seem with a time frame everyone has agreed to for a return on investment.

[DougDew]

19 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

It has to be somewhat calculated with the blessing of the owner and the HC to take a risk because if you don't, the firing will happen much sooner than later. It is a business from the owner point of view, and unless the winning takes a huge backseat, it is as calculated as desperate as it might seem with a time frame everyone has agreed to for a return on investment.

Cowherd made a good point.  The owners are so rich these days that they can write a check to clean house over and over again, so the pressure builds to win right away.  That then means when they draft, they are looking more at ceiling than focusing on risks, because if that ceiling isn't high enough and soon enough, they get fired anyway.

 

That's why these young QBs are playing right away. 

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Cowherd made a good point.  The owners are so rich these days that they can write a check to clean house over and over again, so the pressure builds to win right away.  That then means when they draft, they are looking more at ceiling than focusing on risks, because if that ceiling isn't high enough and soon enough, they get fired anyway.

 

That's why these young QBs are playing right away. 

 

How else can we explain the high frequency of cleaning house with the Panthers, more than any recent franchise has done lately? Its like they are cleaning house like throwing spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Well, I thought Stroud was clearly superior to AR as a pro prospect (I'm not a modern-day mobility snob), so I see no desperation in trading up to 1 to get him.   I didn't advocate trading up to 1, so I'm not blaming Ballard, but I can understand if others want to make that argument though.

 

So the standard for this judgment appears to be whether you liked the QB prospect or not. If you did, it's well-measured. If you didn't, it's judged poorly. 

 

Quote

I'm not going to die on a hill over the word desperation pick to describe AR.  I'll describe it as expanding tolerances for what level of college competence you expect a player to come into the NFL with...and you expand them now because you failed at finding a QB for the past 5 years.

 

Three years, not five. And there's no need to dance around the word "desperate" while you find alternative ways to describe desperation.

 

My question is why you think the Colts needed to expand their tolerances, rather than just make a more conventional pick at #4, like Will Levis. Can't it simply be that, despite Richardson's question marks, they really liked him as a prospect, and he's who they wanted all along?

 

Quote

And this stuff about high ceiling is a bit of a false reason.  Lots of kids walking the streets right now have higher ceilings....if a team took the time to teach a kid everything and take the risk he never reaches his ceiling.  The difference is that the guys picked in the top 5 should come out of college equipped with a certain mastery level of skills and plenty of experience, or its not much different than taking a great athlete, because he has a great athletic ceiling, and begin by teaching him the basics of how to throw a ball.

 

The bolded is your thinking. I think it's old fashioned, closed-minded, and wrong. We have a generation of history of drafting QBs in the first round, particularly in a changed college football environment where programs are not interested in preparing players for the NFL. Most of these QBs have experience and a stable skill set, and most of them don't become high level starters, no matter where they're drafted. Clinging to your standard because it makes you feel safe does not increase the success rate. There is no in between when you're drafting a QB in the first round, either you get a franchise level guy, or you failed.

 

You can ignore this and call everyone else a "mobility snob" because they recognize that a franchise level QB needs to be a playmaker. You're still wrong, IMO.

 

And again, labeling Richardson as an athlete who can't play QB is mistaken to begin with. It's even worse when you act like he doesn't know how to throw. He's already outperforming the supposed low floor that everyone says we should be afraid of, and in doing so, he's outperforming many other QB prospects from recent history, including those with 'high floors' and experience.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Good stuff here from Steichen on AR. Like he says here he is making the right reads which is a big part of the process. Much better explanation on JT too.

 

 

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

So the standard for this judgment appears to be whether you liked the QB prospect or not. If you did, it's well-measured. If you didn't, it's judged poorly. 

You brought up something I said about Stroud and trading up so I explained what I said about him.  I mean, everybody's own personal opinion is based upon their own judgment, at least I hope it is.  I don't see the surprise here. 

 

If the risk of Stroud failing is low, then the buy in price can be high.  CAR bought BY high, and its seems like they did not look at the risks.  They only looked at ceiling (with rose colored glasses probably).  Why a team would consider only ceiling and not risks when determining buy-in price is probably influenced the level of urgency in finding a QB.

 

2 hours ago, Superman said:

The bolded is your thinking. I think it's old fashioned, closed-minded, and wrong. We have a generation of history of drafting QBs in the first round, particularly in a changed college football environment where programs are not interested in preparing players for the NFL.

Blah.  When a person is right and they know the answer, there is no point in continuing being open minded.  Those are just cliche's used to try to label a person that has a hard time being swayed.

 

We have had a history of GMs being desperate.  Its not just Ballard in 2023.  But they are getting more desperate as the environment is changing.    The QBs who get prepared in college and have the traits...called NFL Ready...... should go higher, and they do. 

 

 

 

[coltsblue1844]

5 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/3WavLQjrdjYpAPv9/?mibextid=D5vuiz

This is what I've been saying for a few years now!  The QBs coming out today (and Left Tackle is another position I've noticed) are nowhere NEAR ready to play in the NFL...Drafting has become the NBA also, where you just draft on athletic ability and potential, then HOPE they become a player.   

 

Now that players can get paid to play in college, I WISH that they would go back to players staying in a PROGRAM for 3-4 years and preparing /being prepared for the NFL.

 

The game HAS been dumbed down, it's why the TV announcers all have to praise the QBs ability to "extend the play with his legs", when in reality he is running around waiting for someone to get open, because he couldnt read the D pre-snap to know who should be open!

[BeanDiasucci]

27 minutes ago, coltsblue1844 said:

This is what I've been saying for a few years now!  The QBs coming out today (and Left Tackle is another position I've noticed) are nowhere NEAR ready to play in the NFL...Drafting has become the NBA also, where you just draft on athletic ability and potential, then HOPE they become a player.   

 

Now that players can get paid to play in college, I WISH that they would go back to players staying in a PROGRAM for 3-4 years and preparing /being prepared for the NFL.

 

The game HAS been dumbed down, it's why the TV announcers all have to praise the QBs ability to "extend the play with his legs", when in reality he is running around waiting for someone to get open, because he couldnt read the D pre-snap to know who should be open!

I thought the following was a good post by Mitch Connor on a different thread recently. It showed that many of the QBs coming into the league in recent years have been pretty good early.

Quote

Posted by Mitch Connors

 

Lets go back 8 years to around when Ballard started and see how many 1st round QBs started good. Haskins is excluded for obvious reasons. 

 

Good early:

  Mahomes, Watson, Mayfield, Allen, Lamar, Kyler, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Stroud, Love

 

Not good early:

 Trubisky, Darnold, Rosen, Z Wilson, T Lance, M Jones, Pickett, Young

 

Questionable:

 Fields, Daniel Jones, AR

 

Sure we can argue about where someone falls on this list but the reality is more 1st round QBs succeed now than ever. Of those 1st rd QB's how many are currently starters: 18 of 24. 6 sure fire early busts? That's it? 

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, coltsblue1844 said:

This is what I've been saying for a few years now!  The QBs coming out today (and Left Tackle is another position I've noticed) are nowhere NEAR ready to play in the NFL...Drafting has become the NBA also, where you just draft on athletic ability and potential, then HOPE they become a player.   

 

Now that players can get paid to play in college, I WISH that they would go back to players staying in a PROGRAM for 3-4 years and preparing /being prepared for the NFL.

 

The game HAS been dumbed down, it's why the TV announcers all have to praise the QBs ability to "extend the play with his legs", when in reality he is running around waiting for someone to get open, because he couldnt read the D pre-snap to know who should be open!

That's why Archie Manning will be ready. Everyone is clamoring for him to start at Texas. Trust me, the Mannings have a plan