Archer's Final 2022 Colts Mock

[Archer]

I feel like I’m often a pessimistic contrarian with my mock drafts, so they always fall flat with y’all.  Many mocks I see here are optimistic to the point of mocking marginal 2nd round prospects to us in the 4th.  They look better than mine, but are unrealistic.  I do the exact opposite, figuring that if I love a player in a certain round, then other teams will too (so I probably can’t get him there).  As a result, I end up predicting no great values falling to us, which actually might happen once every draft or so.  Anyhoo, at least this year I’ve seen my first two picks mocked higher that our picks many times, so I don’t think THOSE are overly pessimistic:

 

Sign: OT Jason Spriggs (Falcons)

 

Draft:

 

2 (42) Tyson Smith, OT, Tulsa.  I have three players for this spot that I’m watching or else I’d rather trade down.  They’re at three different positions.  Above Smith, I have Christian Watson, but I think he’ll be gone.  Below him, I have Travis Jones.  Smith probably wouldn’t begin the year as a starter, but I think he could provide four-position depth, which is important after elevating Pinter and Pryor.  I do expect Smith to be the eventual long-term solution at LT, though, possibly taking over as early as the second half of his rookie year.

 

3 (73) Calvin Austin III, Slot WR, Memphis.  I think slot guys are easier to find, and I’m not real keen on that next tier of outside receiver to be much of an upgrade for us.  I’m kinda a fan of Dulin taking a step to make him a possible #2, and Strachan could also take that step.  At this point, I’d settle for adding a ton of speed and quickness at the slot position, and if Parris can stay healthy next year, even better!   Parris could take reps outside.  Austin was described by many scouts at the Senior Bowl as “uncoverable”.  He’s by far the most athletic slot receiver in this draft, but he’s tiny…

 

4 (122) Thomas Booker, DT, Stanford.  Ballard’s spoken many times about wanting to have eight starter-quality DL he can substitute in and out.  I think we only have six, and only two of those are listed as DTs.  Sure, Dayo and Tyquan can give you some reps a 3T, but we can’t be satisfied with going to camp with Chris Williams and RJ McIntosh as our only true back-up DT possibilities.  Booker had a great all-star game and combine.   

 

5 (159) Jeffrey Gunter, LEO, Coastal Carolina.  Try to follow my math: both Dayo and Tyquan are half DT, half DE.  So, after drafting Booker, we have two back-up DTs, but only one back-up DE.  We watched Kemoko, Muhammed, and Rochelle all leave this year.  Since Dayo and Tyquan are big DEs, we lack a back-up LEO.  Gunter was a better athlete than expected at the Combine.  Much like Tyler Smith, he’s a good athlete for the draft spot who needs a lot of technique work and coaching.  Oh, and what if Banagu steps up and takes the back-up LEO spot?  Ahhhh, let’s just cross that bridge when we come to it.

 

I want to pause here and add a spoiler: I’m not drafting a TE.  I feel as though every team can use a difference-making TE, but there are probably only three in the NFL right now (Kelce, Waller, and Pitts).  Ballard drafted his first TE last year (who showed promise), and MAC fills a key dual role.  I also have a feeling about Farrod Green’s status with the team – often players that spend a couple of years on our PS are slated for bigger roles.

 

5 (179) Sam Webb, CB, Missouri Western.  Our new DB coach will have to decide in camp whether we want to start Facyson on the outside and Moore in the slot or Moore on the outside and Rodgers in the slot.  Either way, we can use another outside guy developing.  I’ve been watching Webb (it seems like) forever.  As a small school sleeper, it was a little surprising when he decided to come back for his RJr. and RSr. years, but then the latter washed out when his team decided not to play in 2020.  So, he came back for ANOTHER year.  He’s long (32”+ arms).  He jumps well (42.5” vert and 11’4” broad jump at his PD).  He ran okay (4.48 forty, 4.18 shuttle, 6.94 3-cone).  He’s a couple years over-aged, but that might be good, as his physical maturity could ready him for earlier PT.  I consider Marvell Tell one of those guys we should not forget about, but he failed to make the squad last year and could even make the team as a 5th Safety (which he played in college), if he has a good camp.

 

6 (216) Jeremiah Gemmel, LB, North Carolina.  Good leader type.  Fits the system.  We re-signed Zaire this year, but Adams is gone.  It’s good to ladder the contracts of the LBs, so a young LB this year could be a godsend if we lose Okereke or Zaire in the next few years.  I’d really consider a RB, like FSUs JaShaun Corbin, at this spot, but I’d have a hard time laying off Gemmell if he lasts this long.

 

7 (240) Jake Dixon, OG, Duquesne.  In the 7th, it’s always a crap-shoot.  Obviously, a small school sleeper prospect, but he’s a promising one.  Like Pinter, he was a TE until his Jr. year, and he’s been an all-conference LT since then.  The #s: 6’5, 310, 5.21 forty, 32 1/8” arm, 34 bench reps, 30.5 vert, 9’1” broad jump, 4.77 shuttle, 7.84 3-cone.  Not the same type of player, but a similar pick to Denzelle Good.  Remember how the draftniks on ESPN didn’t have him on their board and listed him as being from Marshall (rather than Mars Hill)?  (Note: keep your eyes on Carter O’Donnell as another player who spent a couple of years on our PS and might be slated for a role this year.)

[Dr. T]

Don't forget to join the annual draft contest (pinned above).

[ruf]

13 hours ago, Archer said:

I feel like I’m often a pessimistic contrarian with my mock drafts, so they always fall flat with y’all.  Many mocks I see here are optimistic to the point of mocking marginal 2nd round prospects to us in the 4th.  They look better than mine, but are unrealistic.  I do the exact opposite, figuring that if I love a player in a certain round, then other teams will too (so I probably can’t get him there).  As a result, I end up predicting no great values falling to us, which actually might happen once every draft or so.  Anyhoo, at least this year I’ve seen my first two picks mocked higher that our picks many times, so I don’t think THOSE are overly pessimistic:

 

Sign: OT Jason Spriggs (Falcons)

 

Draft:

 

2 (42) Tyson Smith, OT, Tulsa.  I have three players for this spot that I’m watching or else I’d rather trade down.  They’re at three different positions.  Above Smith, I have Christian Watson, but I think he’ll be gone.  Below him, I have Travis Jones.  Smith probably wouldn’t begin the year as a starter, but I think he could provide four-position depth, which is important after elevating Pinter and Pryor.  I do expect Smith to be the eventual long-term solution at LT, though, possibly taking over as early as the second half of his rookie year.

 

3 (73) Calvin Austin III, Slot WR, Memphis.  I think slot guys are easier to find, and I’m not real keen on that next tier of outside receiver to be much of an upgrade for us.  I’m kinda a fan of Dulin taking a step to make him a possible #2, and Strachan could also take that step.  At this point, I’d settle for adding a ton of speed and quickness at the slot position, and if Parris can stay healthy next year, even better!   Parris could take reps outside.  Austin was described by many scouts at the Senior Bowl as “uncoverable”.  He’s by far the most athletic slot receiver in this draft, but he’s tiny…

 

4 (122) Thomas Booker, DT, Stanford.  Ballard’s spoken many times about wanting to have eight starter-quality DL he can substitute in and out.  I think we only have six, and only two of those are listed as DTs.  Sure, Dayo and Tyquan can give you some reps a 3T, but we can’t be satisfied with going to camp with Chris Williams and RJ McIntosh as our only true back-up DT possibilities.  Booker had a great all-star game and combine.   

 

5 (159) Jeffrey Gunter, LEO, Coastal Carolina.  Try to follow my math: both Dayo and Tyquan are half DT, half DE.  So, after drafting Booker, we have two back-up DTs, but only one back-up DE.  We watched Kemoko, Muhammed, and Rochelle all leave this year.  Since Dayo and Tyquan are big DEs, we lack a back-up LEO.  Gunter was a better athlete than expected at the Combine.  Much like Tyler Smith, he’s a good athlete for the draft spot who needs a lot of technique work and coaching.  Oh, and what if Banagu steps up and takes the back-up LEO spot?  Ahhhh, let’s just cross that bridge when we come to it.

 

I want to pause here and add a spoiler: I’m not drafting a TE.  I feel as though every team can use a difference-making TE, but there are probably only three in the NFL right now (Kelce, Waller, and Pitts).  Ballard drafted his first TE last year (who showed promise), and MAC fills a key dual role.  I also have a feeling about Farrod Green’s status with the team – often players that spend a couple of years on our PS are slated for bigger roles.

 

5 (179) Sam Webb, CB, Missouri Western.  Our new DB coach will have to decide in camp whether we want to start Facyson on the outside and Moore in the slot or Moore on the outside and Rodgers in the slot.  Either way, we can use another outside guy developing.  I’ve been watching Webb (it seems like) forever.  As a small school sleeper, it was a little surprising when he decided to come back for his RJr. and RSr. years, but then the latter washed out when his team decided not to play in 2020.  So, he came back for ANOTHER year.  He’s long (32”+ arms).  He jumps well (42.5” vert and 11’4” broad jump at his PD).  He ran okay (4.48 forty, 4.18 shuttle, 6.94 3-cone).  He’s a couple years over-aged, but that might be good, as his physical maturity could ready him for earlier PT.  I consider Marvell Tell one of those guys we should not forget about, but he failed to make the squad last year and could even make the team as a 5th Safety (which he played in college), if he has a good camp.

 

6 (216) Jeremiah Gemmel, LB, North Carolina.  Good leader type.  Fits the system.  We re-signed Zaire this year, but Adams is gone.  It’s good to ladder the contracts of the LBs, so a young LB this year could be a godsend if we lose Okereke or Zaire in the next few years.  I’d really consider a RB, like FSUs JaShaun Corbin, at this spot, but I’d have a hard time laying off Gemmell if he lasts this long.

 

7 (240) Jake Dixon, OG, Duquesne.  In the 7th, it’s always a crap-shoot.  Obviously, a small school sleeper prospect, but he’s a promising one.  Like Pinter, he was a TE until his Jr. year, and he’s been an all-conference LT since then.  The #s: 6’5, 310, 5.21 forty, 32 1/8” arm, 34 bench reps, 30.5 vert, 9’1” broad jump, 4.77 shuttle, 7.84 3-cone.  Not the same type of player, but a similar pick to Denzelle Good.  Remember how the draftniks on ESPN didn’t have him on their board and listed him as being from Marshall (rather than Mars Hill)?  (Note: keep your eyes on Carter O’Donnell as another player who spent a couple of years on our PS and might be slated for a role this year.)

good job. thanks for posting

[NorthernColt]

FWIW, Calvin Austin by all accounts is more than just a slot. He arguably has the best release package in this draft. Yes he's tiny so if bigger guys get a hold of him he's cooked, but they literally cannot touch him. They reach and miss and he's gone.

[Mr. Too Proud]

I wouldn't mind us signing Kyle Rudolph, and trading 2 5ths for Toney

[Shive]

On 4/23/2022 at 5:40 PM, NorthernColt said:

FWIW, Calvin Austin by all accounts is more than just a slot. He arguably has the best release package in this draft. Yes he's tiny so if bigger guys get a hold of him he's cooked, but they literally cannot touch him. They reach and miss and he's gone.

He's one of my favorite WRs in this draft and while his size is a concern, I think he's such a complete WR with lightning speed and, like you said, the best release package in this draft. He would give us an absolute weapon at WR right away. He's such a volatile gamble to press. You're most likely not going to be able to press him and if you try and miss, he's gone. If Dotson goes before our first pick, Austin is my hope.

 

Also, I don't mind this draft at all Archer.

[Archer]

On 4/23/2022 at 5:40 PM, NorthernColt said:

FWIW, Calvin Austin by all accounts is more than just a slot. He arguably has the best release package in this draft. Yes he's tiny so if bigger guys get a hold of him he's cooked, but they literally cannot touch him. They reach and miss and he's gone.

Yes, I could see him being like TY coming out.  Due to size, they’re called slot receivers by most fans, but some guys like that can be effective on the outside…

[Archer]

I m starting to favor the trade down if Tyler Smith and Christian Watson are gone.  Trade down in the 2nd, pick up a 4th rounder, and target Abraham Lucas, Calvin Austin, or Skyy Moore…

[DougDew]

46 minutes ago, Archer said:

I m starting to favor the trade down if Tyler Smith and Christian Watson are gone.  Trade down in the 2nd, pick up a 4th rounder, and target Abraham Lucas, Calvin Austin, or Skyy Moore…

The Packers have 11 picks.  Frankly, I don't know if they can fit that may rookies under the cap, or want to.  I could see them trading up for quality over quantity for Rodgers final years.

 

Pick 42 is 480 points (draft value chart).  GBs pick 59 (still second round), 92, and 132 add up to 482 points.  If presented with that trade, its a no brainer, IMO.  I think there is a good chance that the same quality player that is there at 42 is there at 59, but it might be at a different position.