honest seeking fact question

[ruf]

how many games would CW have to set out in order to keep our 1st round pick?

I'm confused because it says 70% of the snaps (if we make the playoff) or 75% if we don't. since its snap count is it possible to guess at about how many games this would be equal to

[Zoltan]

5.1 games so basically 6 games to be below the 70%. 4.25 games for 75% so basically 5.

[jvan1973]

27 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

5.1 games so basically 6 games to be below the 70%. 4.25 games for 75% so basically 5.

That's games,   not snaps.   If he sits and the offense has a ton of 3 and outs that would effect the percentage 

[ruf]

10 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

That's games,   not snaps.   If he sits and the offense has a ton of 3 and outs that would effect the percentage 

that's true. we should really see where we are after 10 games and if its 4 and 6 we should sit him the remainder of the season. we really need that 1st round pick.

[John Hammonds]

28 minutes ago, ruf said:

that's true. we should really see where we are after 10 games and if its 4 and 6 we should sit him the remainder of the season. we really need that 1st round pick.

And that's gonna be a tough decision to make at that time.  If my predictions turn out to be right, we could have a record of 5-5 after 10 games, and still have a hope of the playoffs.  If we decide to sit him, then we're throwing in the towel on a season that could be won.  If we decide to play him, we could wind up losing a 1st round pick anywhere between #10 and #17.  Bleah.

[ruf]

19 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

And that's gonna be a tough decision to make at that time.  If my predictions turn out to be right, we could have a record of 5-5 after 10 games, and still have a hope of the playoffs.  If we decide to sit him, then we're throwing in the towel on a season that could be won.  If we decide to play him, we could wind up losing a 1st round pick anywhere between #10 and #17.  Bleah.

yes that is a problem so thats why i didn't say 5 and 5 but 4 and 6. I think at that point we should see what we have with Eason and if he can't play well enough we need to cut him and look for a better backup qb this will make us better next year

[1959Colts]

What will probably happen is...

Wentz will play the in the required number of games (so that Philadelphia secures our number one draft pick)...

and then, he will get hurt again, and miss the remaining games.

[Four2itus]

Honest answer? The team is worried about getting wins....not preserving a 1st round pick. 

[John Hammonds]

30 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Honest answer? The team is worried about getting wins....not preserving a 1st round pick. 

Very true.  The team is indeed worried about getting wins.

 

However, the OP's question regarding the specifics of the Wentz deal that triggers the 1st round pick vs the 2nd round pick directly addresses the "Nightmare Scenario".

 

The Nightmare Scenario:  Wentz plays more than 75% of the snaps, triggering the 1st round pick.  However, we wind up winning only 5 games, which makes that 1st round pick a top-10 pick.

 

That the OP wanted to know is: at what point of the season do we take stock, and say, "The season is lost, but we still haven't yet triggered the 1st round pick.  Is it time to sit Wentz the remainder of the losing season so that we only lose a 2nd round pick?"

 

Apparently, that point in the season comes right after we play back-to-back games vs the Jets and the Jags, potentially winning back-to-back games, and pushing us to a 5-5 record.  Not a good point to decide to sit Wentz.

[John Hammonds]

50 minutes ago, ruf said:

yes that is a problem so thats why i didn't say 5 and 5 but 4 and 6. I think at that point we should see what we have with Eason and if he can't play well enough we need to cut him and look for a better backup qb this will make us better next year

Yup.  It's gonna be hard.  I think this upcoming game vs the Dolphins is gonna say a lot.  If we beat them, then good, we have a chance.  If we don't beat them, that means the four games vs the Jags and Texans aren't a lock.  And if that happens, we would need to make more decisions than just if we're going to sit Wentz.

[Four2itus]

24 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Very true.  The team is indeed worried about getting wins.

 

However, the OP's question regarding the specifics of the Wentz deal that triggers the 1st round pick vs the 2nd round pick directly addresses the "Nightmare Scenario".

 

The Nightmare Scenario:  Wentz plays more than 75% of the snaps, triggering the 1st round pick.  However, we wind up winning only 5 games, which makes that 1st round pick a top-10 pick.

 

That the OP wanted to know is: at what point of the season do we take stock, and say, "The season is lost, but we still haven't yet triggered the 1st round pick.  Is it time to sit Wentz the remainder of the losing season so that we only lose a 2nd round pick?"

 

Apparently, that point in the season comes right after we play back-to-back games vs the Jets and the Jags, potentially winning back-to-back games, and pushing us to a 5-5 record.  Not a good point to decide to sit Wentz.

I truly think that only fans are weighing the value/likelihood/what if aspects of the pick that they traded for Carson Wentz. I was answering honestly that frankly, it's likely the last thing on the Colts mind. Even winning two more games is paramount for the franchise. The nightmare scenario for the team is losing more games, regardless of the "pick". 

[WHAM-Bam ThankYou Sam]

In my opinion I think he should sit until he is 100% regardless of what our draft situation will be. An immobile wentz is bound to get slaughtered when our o-line is this banged up.

[ruf]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

Yup.  It's gonna be hard.  I think this upcoming game vs the Dolphins is gonna say a lot.  If we beat them, then good, we have a chance.  If we don't beat them, that means the four games vs the Jags and Texans aren't a lock.  And if that happens, we would need to make more decisions than just if we're going to sit Wentz.

if we make JB look like PM we have an ongoing problem

[Zoltan]

5 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

That's games,   not snaps.   If he sits and the offense has a ton of 3 and outs that would effect the percentage 

That’s why I rounded up, for a margin of error. It’s impossible to calculate snaps because we don’t know how many there will be in the season. Best and really only way to estimate is with games